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Everything posted by DocBauer
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He's not a great athlete, but he's also not a 230lb plodder either. And he's got a good arm. Still oy 21yo I'd like to think he can develop in to at least a solid, average OF. My biggest concern is "Miranda contact disease" potential. Gonzalez has lowered his K% and raised his BB%. That's awesome and an indicator of future success. But in the past, one of his issues was swinging at everything because he had the ability to make contact, albeit not always good contact. Similar to Miranda in that regard. Based on what he's done this year, and how much he's improved, it sounds like he found the antidote. He's probably got 20HR power. But if he keeps smashing line drives and 30 plus doubles with HR totals in the teens, that's still really good. Does he have to be protected this offseason? Yes or no might affect whether we see him with the Twins this season. But I'd have no problem letting him play a couple weeks for the Saints since he just got there, and then bring him up for September to help jumpstart his 2026. *Gonzalez, Keaschall, Culpepper, Rodriguez, and Jenkins all ready and up by July 2026 at the latest? 🤞
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Prielipp is at AA, healthy, throwing hard, getting K's, extending the number of pitches per game, and has already surpassed his career IP from college and professional ball. The talent is there and the health finally seems to be there. So I'm not going to worry about much of anything right now. But that BABIP is unreal. Even if he's been a little wild and thrown some mistakes, he simply has to be suffering at least partially from just bad luck. I'm not even sure I can remember the last time a prospect had as an amazing 1st full season as Keaschall did last year. And now Culpepper is probably exceeding what Keaschall did. Wow! There's nobody blocking him at St Paul. I'd really like to challenge him in September with a promotion there and jump start his 2026. Langenberg has really turned things around after a poor start. I had originally thought he had a shot to begin the season in AA this year. Oops. But he'll certainly be there next year, if not late this season. Michael Ross has quietly been having a very nice debut season. Numbers are very solid all across the board. Any report on what he throws? His draft profile indicates lower 90's but can touch 94, a change, and a "slurvy" slider.
- 22 replies
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- kendry rojas
- james outman
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For those of us who are BIG 10 fans, we know very well who Rondale Moore is. He pretty much destroyed ever team in the conference at some point. But his size made him a #2 pick. And he certainly had had a mixed NFL career so far due to injury. But the talent is still there to make a difference. He doesn't have to be a #1 or #2. He only has to be a healthy #4 as a returner and dangerous slot receiver.
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Minnesota Twins Back to Selling Hope
DocBauer replied to Nate Palmer's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Some good prospects oh so very close to taking over jobs and debuting besides, this team needed a shakeup. We can call it re-tooling as well. I was 100% on board with moving the impending FA, which they did except for Vazquez, even though I really liked Bader, Castro, and Coulombe. I had accepted 1 of Jax or Duran going. I sure didn't expect BOTH to be dealt. And I personally don't think Bradley alone for Jax was a value move. (Not at this time anyway). But EVEN STILL, knowing the deals came a couple hours apart, I would never have made the Varland deal. And I'll repeat that I think betting on Stewart's arm NOT falling off for the next year or two was smarter than moving him for Outman. He and Varland give you at least a couple arms to begin the 2026 pen re-build with some strength. I'm not going to rehash every deal and every player and every "fit" directly. As @Riverbrianstakes, every team sells HOPE every season to some degree. It's a lot better than having NO hope. But while we have roughly 5 months to watch and wait, see what happens, and HOPE, I think it's OK to pause 1 week after the firesale and take a step back and just see what HOPE means for the Twins going forward. #1] At the risk of being obvious, ACTUAL NEW OWNERS offers the most. Bonnes has roughly calculated that a Twins payroll sits somewhere in the $90M range as of now. IDK if that includes a couple arbitration bumps and minimum salaries for a full 26 man team or not, but it's a place to at least start. Despite owing Houston $10M for each of the next 3 years, moving Correa DID free up $20M that COULD allow for additions and/or extensions. Even getting the Twins back to the 2025 level offers some hope if the new owners would like to nudge their new investment forward. They don't have to take the payroll to $150M to still have room to make additions. #2] Unless the Pohlads are still in charge...see point #1 again...or the new owners are just as cheap and disinterested...doubt it...you'd like to think WHOEVER makes up the FO, they would keep the rotation in tact for the time being. Lopez's numbers are booked, and Ryan and Ober aren't going to be overly expensive yet. Looking ONLY at the ML level, AAA, and AA arms that haven't JUST been recently promoted, there is the following collection of SP arms: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Sims, Festa, Abel, Bradley, Morris, Lewis, Raya, MacLeod, Klein, CJ Culpepper, Prielipp, and MAYBE we can include Rojas as he was promoted to AAA after being just acquired. And that's deliberately leaving guys like Hidalgo and Bowen off from AA who need more work, as well as leaving off Adams and Ohl, who I believe are now pen fixtures. So that's 13-14 arms to fill up the rotation for the Twins, AND the Saints. Is everyone having a great 2024? No. Will everyone be 100% healthy all of 2026? No. But that's enough arms for depth, for now and the near now, as well as room for a couple to begin put in the pen NOW-NOW for 2026. OR, included in possible trades for help elsewhere. (Just PLEASE don't touch the top 3 for now). That's a lot to work with for depth, and to help re-build the pen. #3] It's not hard to squint a little and see a decent lineup/position roster for 2026, even with some obvious question marks. Lewis has begun to look comfortable again. Anyone really want to give up the talented 26yo? Buxton is amazing and finally has his legs under him. Even in an inconsistent and injury interrupted 2025, Wallner still has a .323 OB%, .480 SLG%, and and OPS over .800. His career OPS is around .850 right now. Keaschall is just NOT Superman, despite his early flashes. But he's a damn fine prospect with a lot of talent and skills this team needs. Like him or not, Jeffers is still one of the better offensive catchers in the game. The point is, there's SOMETHING to work with already in place. I've left the decent, solid, but not great Larnach out as I think he gets moved in the offseason due to need, and the preponderance of LH OF options in place. Ignoring the bench, the obvious holes are LF, 1B, and DH. And those 3 holes make a difference as to whether the offense is good or not. The good news, I guess, is those might be the easiest 3 spots to address. Is the oft injured enigma that is Emmanuel Rodriguez maybe the biggest key to the 2026 offense? He's a legitimate CF backup option, more than capable of being a very good corner OF, and brings some OB%, power and speed. Even in ANOTHER injury plagued season, he's got an OPS above .800 for St Paul. Bad luck? Still growing in to his still only 22yo body? IDK. But if he could be healthy, or relatively so, I'd just put him in LF and bat him at the bottom of the order and let it fly. (The Brewers path if you will). If he keeps this up, Kaelen Culpepper could be ready June/July. That changes the complexion/depth/variety of the INF. But he's probably not ready opening day. (SEE: Keaschall). Could Gonzalez maybe also be a June/July option as a RH OF if he also keeps this up? Might Fedko just surprise the hell out of all of us as a 4th OF option sometime next year? What if Roden starts transferring his really solid MILB/AAA numbers and becomes a solid ML player? Remember, we're still only talking about 132 PA in his rookie season as I type this. While not a true slugger, could he be part of the 1B conversation considering he has experience there? Might the FO...new or not...be able to bring in an under 30yo 1B like long time Twins nemesis Josh Naylor...only making $10.9M this season...to help stabilize 1B/DH for a year or two? OK, I'm getting long winded here. But the point is there ARE some options for LF, even as an initial platoon until Rodriguez and/or Jenkins are ready. 1B/DH might be a fairly inexpensive add. Squint your eyes a little for opening day, widen them a bit for June/July, and you/I can see a solid lineup that has more speed and athleticism than we've had for some time. #3A] What is the DIRECTION of the offense? Power kills, and power kills! But a more well rounded lineup is best. We change coaching staffs, and they go to Toronto and have one of the best offenses in the league. We lower the team K numbers and the offense tanks. How much of that is players or approach? While not ignoring power...and they shouldnt...recent drafts have had a stronger focus on speed and athleticism. But DECIDE what your approach is going to be, and make sure you have the coaching staff in place to make it happen! #4] I object to the idea that building a good bullpen is at all easy. It's a hell of a lot easier than building a starting staff for sure! And I also object to the idea that if you don't have the ability to compete for a playoff start, then who needs a closer, or a TOP pen. Well if you just give away games, of course you won't be able to compete. The HOPE factor isn't hard when you look at the rotation and depth of talent. And the offense isn’t hard to see hope when you look at what's on hand, what's very close to making a difference, and just a solid add or two. But trying to re-build a bullpen overnight to be competive is a different story. So if we want to cling to HOPE for 2026...or even 2027...where do we begin? Again, sorry I'm rambling, but if you're reading this far, hang with me for a little longer. LOL As of TODAY, you can probably write Sands and Topa in to 2 of the 8 man spots. (Topa is fringy at best). HOPEFULLY we see more of the 2024 version of Sands going forward. BOTH of Adams and Ohl have been part of an experiment this season for guys they think have potential, but just aren't ML SP options. (There are other). They throw 2-4 innings every 4th day. That is preparing them, and others, to be able to throw 2-3 solid innings at the ML level ever 3 days. It means 1 time through a lineup, maybe 1 1/2 times. On occasion, they may be asked to go 2 times through. That means they, and swapped out once in a while since they have options, are 2 arms in the 7-8 spots who provide a bridge for the "better" arms 1-6. I think it's a really smart idea. But once the rotation settles down over the next couple days/weeks, I'd really love to see what each could do for 1 IP to see what might be there. Isn't this a trial and error 2 months? You're going to see various arms like Hatch and Kriske, and others before the season is done, and a couple others brought in to ST, to just see if you can find some lighting. Remember, that's how we found Stewart and Thielbar. (Also Jeff Hoffman who we didn't keep. Ugh!). Over the years we've gotten guys like Harper, Morin, and Wisler for 1yr contributions. And that's just recent history. So maybe/hopefully, we find ONE viable arm that route. Despite being 35yo next season, I'd make Coulombe a priority FA singing due to familiarity between both parties. He assumes his same role as a 1 batter or 1 inning middle option. (Chaffin and others might be similar options). And we're still talking only $3-4M. IF we have new owners. And IF they are willing to raise payroll beyond at least one solid BAT initially...not including a cheap depth piece or two...how great would it be to add 2 decent, not All Star quality arms from both sides for a combined $16M? I'm just sptballing here. A couple solid, proven veterans, who have some life left, to bridge the gap for the prospects to take over. IF they do that, it provides a bridge for young arms to take over, and leaves the 2026 Twins with a mediocre pen at best. But it's better than being horrible. But how about in addition to a handful of bridge arms, the FO actually makes some strong moves and just tell Bradley...for example...we're going to tweak your stuff and use you as a setup man and maybe even a closer. How about they tell MacLeod you've got pretty good stuff, but we just don't see you as a SP as the ML level, but you might be a really good pen option really soon. Lewis is not a bad prospect despite a rough 2025 season where they are changing his sequencing. Maybe he's potentially devastating with his decent velocity and repertoire including his amazing knuckleball. A couple solid FA signings to the pen with the limited options on hand, and making the hard decisions for certain prospects to make the transition could pay big dividends soon. I'm not super optimistic about 2026. But if we don't trade away from the front of our rotation, if we add at least ONE quality BAT, and if we add at least a couple solid BP arms to help out in this transition time, and move a couple of the depth arms with talent, I can see a bullpen that doesn't suck, and has potential.- 36 replies
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- mick abel
- taj bradley
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I'm not sure if sending along $ in most of these deals would have made a difference other than the Paddack/Dobnak deal. (Correa's deal is its own mess). Stewart, Varland and France were on minimum or barely above deals. So their new teams are only hook for about a combined $1M. Jax is owed roughly $800,000. Coulombe is owed about $1M. Bader has about $2M still owed. So I don't know if paying any part of those remaining contracts makes a difference? Maybe Bader? Where I think it might have made a difference is picking up half of Duran's remaining $1.4M. Does half of that, or all of it, add a 3rd player to the deal? I don't think a young catcher like Jiminez from Detroit was an awful return. He's a LONG way away from MLB, but he's got some bat potential, has a good arm, and reportedly is a natural behind the plate. So if you pick up some of Paddack's remaining salary and don't "force" Dobnak in to the deal, maybe they get a 1B, or solid OF, at A+...MAYBE AA...instead of a FCL catcher who's just been promoted to A- ball. I'm sure we will never know, but it does make me wonder.
- 105 replies
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- griffin jax
- jhoan duran
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IMO, you can't just look at each of these deals individually and score them in any meaningful way. We're talking a huge chunk of the roster turned over in 48 hours. As a result, all of these moves are intertwined. 1] DURAN: It's a really solid B+ return. But a TOP, proven closer with 2 more years of control should have included a 3rd player, or someone closer to helping the Twins offensively than Tait. We got a good return, but we needed an A on this, not a B+. Still good value though. 2] BADER: Solid value on a rental. A LH version of Gonzalez and a 16yo DSL flier that they are at least familiar with. But a B+ for me when I look at the "fit" or another LH OF. 3] CORREA: It's a D up front as it looks really bad, and brought nothing back in return. Now, Lee's bat takes a step forward, Culpepper is up and ready by July 2026 if not sooner. Snd the new owners actually invest the $20M savings, this can be a B+ move. 4] PADDACK: They got a switch hitting, strong arm, supposedly good young backstop but he's only 19yo. Not bad! Did including Dobnak in the deal really lower the return value though? I'll agree with the B-. Disappointing to think we might have gotten a high A or AA player if we just ate the rest of Dobber's deal. Still, a talented young catching flier was a good return. 5] CASTRO: By all reports there were several teams interested. Gallagher sounds like a solid return. Not sure Armstrong as the 2nd piece was good enough. Wasn't there a 1B or other bat at AA or high A that might have been a better need fit? Still, the C+ sounds very fair. I might bump it up to a B once I see more of Gallagher and Armstrong. 6] COULOMBE: I really thought he had more value than a 2024 draftee coming off surgery. Supposedly the Twins really like the Horn kid. I think INCOMPLETE might be a more accurate grade here. I have a soft spot for LH arms, but Horn is such an unknown right now I'm a little disappointed here. 7] JAX: They weren't FORCED to trade Jax simply because he asked. He'd be the closer in 2026. He's still got great stuff and high K numbers and is only 30yo. Bradley wasn't a bad return. But he's been sliding. However, he's also pretty young. Is he a mid rotation starter or a back of the pen arm? I'm going with a C grade even though Bradley's got potential. A 1 for 1 and the loss of Jax AFTER moving Duran keeps my grade down. 8] STEWART: An absolute F grade. ANOTHER LH OF? And one that needs to be "fixed" at 28yo? Stewart is good, cheap, and controlled. I'd take whatever he's got left and cross my fingers for 40-50 IP all day over a player the Dodgers were probably close to DFA. 9] VARLAND: They'd already moved 4 of their top 5 pen arms and decided it was smart to just clean house? Why? Varland is a setup guy in 2026 and possibly/probably the closer after everyone else is gone. And while Roden shouldn't be judged on a SSS at the ML level, he wasn't a power plant in MILB. And he's ANOTHER LH OF. A little more power, and a possible answer at 1B, or even a legitimate backup in CF, I like him better. They'd better be right about Rojas or my C grade becomes a D, and possibly an F if Roden doesn't take off. Getting a bunch of talented arms is never a bad thing. But if you didn't completely blow up the bullpen, would you need so many arms added to what you already have? And where are the bats? The odds of Outman contributing anything are pretty remote. The 2 catchers are a good 2-3 years away. Roden is battling Wallner, Larnach, Rodriguez, Jenkins, and now possible 2027 option in Mendez. I only really hate 1 move. I'm a little disappointed in a couple more. But it's the OVERVIEW I don't get. Why all 5 pen arms and not keep Jax and Varland. But even if they just felt they had to move Jax, why move Varland? It almost felt like everyone was working the phones separately and nobody knew what the plan was until the timer hit zero. Again, I just can't separate each trade individually. They all affect one another as a collective. And that lowers a lot of my grades a good notch in most areas. I don't see a plan, or returns that fit together as a whole.
- 105 replies
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- griffin jax
- jhoan duran
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Call it a hunch, or an impatient wish, but I just keep thinking about Bradley in the bullpen for 2026. 1] Good K rates IN MILB, (good numbers all the way around), even better his first 2 ML seasons, but they've been dropping. 2] He's got good velocity and a nice mix of pitches to go along with ML experience. 3] SOMEONE has to move to the pen. We almost have too many arms for the Twins and the Saints right now for 2026. And the pen needs help. While a trade or two might happen, and a couple decent FA might be brought in, there's still need for a couple young arms to transition and make a difference. I hate to move any young arm to the pen too soon, but again, SOMEONE needs to move there. Bradley just feels like a natural choice to me.
- 17 replies
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- noah cardenas
- c.j. culpepper
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Agreed. But how about if we let Rodriguez join them and find a quality 1B from somewhere? (P.S. Don't forget Wallner and hopefully a continuing to improve Lee.)
- 39 replies
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- kaelen culpepper
- walker jenkins
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Greg, I agree with you mostly in regard to a "tear down" not being 100% as of TODAY. The key to 2026 and beyond is if a sale of the team goes through. Maybe it's just hope. Maybe it's just logic that a new owner would look at mostly clean books after the sale and decide to actually invest some $ in their new acquisition and keep Ryan and Lopez. They might even be smart enough to sign Ryan to an extension, realizing a top of the rotation SP is tough to find. ASSUMING new ownership, I think keeping Lopez and Ryan makes sense for their new investment. I would seriously doubt they want to continue a full tear down of said new investment. They'd really want to further p*ss of their already upset fan base? MAYBE it's being naive, but Buxton, Lewis, and Wallner REMAIN potentially really good offensive players. Keaschall is here to stay, Lee isn't done developing yet, Jeffers is a decent catcher and a good offensive one, and Rodriguez, Jenkins, Culpepper, and a couple other solid prospects are so tantalizing close to add! Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, Festa, Sim, Abel, and too many to list offer up not only a solid rotation, but arms to just immediately place in the pen. MAYBE the Twins go a little old school and move arms to the pen who might move back to the rotation the way the Cardinals used to use rookies and other young arms. They might still sign a couple solid FA options for $, but not BIG $. Bringing back someone like Coulombe, for example, on a decent contract. Or two. Maybe Adams and Ohl...who I wonder might they might do as 1 IP only options...could be #7 and #8 options in the pen as 2-3 IP twice a week pen options. The smart thing might be a couple solid FA, and then just move SP options to the pen immediately and just tell them; "you want to stay at AAA, or do you want to be in the Majors"? But even then, even with Buck, Lewis, Wallner, Keaschall, and some young talent so close, there's still no way to win without a better offense. ASSUMING new owners that would recognize keeping the strength of the team intact was a good idea. And ASSUMING a couple FA would be signed of any sort of quality to help rebuild the pen, and a couple of the collection of ALL THESE ARMS were moved to the pen in a massive...but potentially good...rebuild happens. The offense still needs work because you can't just bet on everyone being healthy and productive, and every prospect working out. So after adding a couple decent, solid, but not expensive arms to the pen, and moving the depth arms to the pen IMMEDIATELY vs keeping them all at AAA for depth, would they then take an under $100M payroll and ADD a couple of BATS? And by adding, I'm not saying a new owner would make another Correa move. I doubt we get a new owner who is of the Vikings Wilf quality, much less Cohen of the Mets. But would they make a solid signing at 1B or DH, or maybe a corner OF who are quality players? Would they hand out a couple $15-18M 1-2-3yr deals for a couple of quality BATS to augment what's on hand, knowing they MIGHT be able to recoup some value via trades if/when Rodriguez, Jenkins, Culpepper, and others arrive over the next year or two? The future of the Twins is in a dangerous and interesting precipice situation where they sell off MORE if a sale doesn't come through soon. And that's where a further teardown takes place from ownership who could care less. OR, IF the team is actually purchased soon, things look a little brighter if they keep what's on hand, spend a little $ to even bring the payroll back to $130-140M for 2026 and look to the future. Part of me really wants to see what Falvey and company could do with a new owner who actually cares about their investment without being handcuffed. Part of me is so confused about any sort of obvious path the current FO has in mind...including confusion about a handful of very questionable trades at the deadline that I've already stated previously...that I'm fully ready for a NEW FO and direction. As long as it doesn't include a complete teardown.
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Nailor should be fine as the #2 for 3 games. Especially if Hockensen is OK to begin the season 100%, which he should be. Considering he seems to be 100% and ready to go, I think a lot of people are ignoring the potential of Rondale Moore. He was basically ALL EVERYTHING at various times in college. The fact that he's small made him slip to the 2nd round when drafted. Who knows if he can last for 17 games, but as a returner and #4 WR he's dynamite in a small package. From early reports, it sounds like Felton is struggling some. But he's not going anywhere. We still have a month and 3 preseason games to go. I think the question is who is the temporary WR for the first 3 games? Lucky Jackson, J Jones, and Thayer Thomas all have at least 1 season learning the system as practice squad players. Jones in particular had a really good camp and solid preseason, but has had a couple drop issues. And Tim Jones isn't much of a receiver in his career, but is considered a good ST player and blocker, similar to Sherfield who hung around most of 2024. My biggest concern right now is QB #2. I know it's early and we have 3 preseason games to go, and I know the offense is facing one of the best defenses in the NFL, but I was really expecting Howell to take a Donaldson-like step forward with this coaching staff and secure the #2 spot. And maybe he still will. But I'm starting to wonder if we might be considering alternatives out there for the #2 spot?
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To some degree they already have. Matthews is in the rotation. Festa and Sims are on the IL, but part of the rotation once they come back. Ohl and Adams are up. Recently acquired Abel will probably be up soon, probably Bradley as well. Each was sent to St Paul initially for various reasons that might include a brief adjustment period, a quick looksee at what they are throwing and how, and to set up the next moves. Remember, these 2 guys have been a Twin for only a couple of days. Looking deeper.... Morris is on the AAA IL. Lewis has looked much better as of late, but has really struggled this season. And neither is on the current 40 man. Raya is, but has started to take a real step forward the last month. Why mess with that now in a lost season? A couple of AA arms were just promoted to AAA. But there's really nobody else to promote right now. Davis, Ramirez, and Urena are probably DFA any day now, but were "emergency" adds just to fill out the 26 man roster. So until Festa and SWR come back, they've promoted Ohl and Adams with Abel and Bradley probably up soon. There really is nobody else to bring up at this time.
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The context of the Varland trade, by itself, isn't the issue, IMO. BUT, the context of ALL the trades together makes this a misfire, along with a couple other moves made. But to make this any other points clear, I have to digress some. Correa heard about an initial inquiry that was laughable. THEN, the Astro's OWNER bypasses Falvey AND Joe Pohlad and speaks to Jim Pohlad directly. (Who's running this mess)?! Falvey tells Correa, honestly, "You didn't sign up for this". Correa then states that while he wants to stay, he would waive his no trade clause for Houston and nobody else. Correa then speaks to Jax about an impending firesale, and his possibly/probably moving back to Houston and Jax asks for a trade. ALL of that is IMPORTANT context. 1] Jax did NOT HAVE to be traded at the last minute for Taj Bradley. While Bradley has a good arm, the Rays haven't been able to fully develop him as of yet. Maybe the Twins will. Or maybe he turns in to a really good RP. But almost every thing I've read says the Twins undersold on Jax, who would have been the Twins closer in 2026. 2] While Stewart says his arm feels better than it has in years following his last procedure, it's still possible it self destructs again in the near future. But his arm is talented, has been performing very well, and all of him is inexpensive and cost controlled for the next few years. That means he's very good and cheap. And we move him for a 28yo OF who had ONE good season in 2023? We're going to "fix" Outman when we haven't been able to fix some of our own players? 3] While Varland being a local boy is a great story, IDK in the context of roster building and value. He's made a tremendous transition to the pen, is inexpensive and cost controlled for the next few years. Sound familiar? To be completely fair to Roden, he's younger than Larnach, has more speed, and is a better OF defensively. Also to be fair, he has a little over 100 ML PA. So we still don't know if his bat will or won't translate to MLB. But we DO KNOW that Larnach is a solid, decent ML bat already. We also know that Rodrigez and Jenkins are 2 of our best prospects, also LH bats, and both relatively close to appearing for the Twins. Rojas MIGHT be a really talented LH arm. And maybe he's the real prize here. And maybe he turns out to be a quality SP in some capacity. Maybe he becomes a really strong LHRP for the late innings. And if so, there's real value in that! But COLLECTIVELY, the Twins COULD have had the 2026 bullpen start with Jax, Varland, and Stewart, with hope that Sands settles in closer to his 2024 season. That makes sense to me with all of the other trades that took place. But in the overall CONTEXT of the trades, they moved Stewart for NOTHING. And at the last minute they traded BOTH Jax AND Varland for an OF that is currently redundant in the scheme of things, a talented young RH arm that is trending downward and might end up in the pen, and a talented young LH arm that has yet to throw more than 84 IP in any MILB season, and also might be targeted for the pen. And if and when Bradley, potentially, move to the pen, there is real value in that still. And I'm NOT saying either, or both, might not be solid SP options still. But neither arm projects as well as Abel right now, or Matthews, Festa, or SWR. As of NOW. So the pen is decimated when we could have had a handful of 3-4 pieces to build around. And we have a questionable fit in a LH OF, and a couple arms with potential, vs proven quality. Once again, CONTEXT is what I'm looking at. Getting more arms is never a bad thing. But the biggest need is to add some actual ML quality BATS. And so far, we have the potentially questionable fit of Roden, and a highly rated young catching prospect, and a flash in the pan 28yo LH OF. So while we added 1 great arm, a couple decent arms, at least 1 good young 18yo A+ catcher, but added next to NOTHING for the lineup, while DESTROYING the pen, how does moving Varland...the original topic...do anything for the future of the franchise? Maybe a couple years from now Roden is better than Wallner, Rodriguez, or Jenkins. Maybe Rojas is being undervalued and will be part of the future rotation, or a pen mainstay. Maybe Bradley makes us forget about Jax. But that's a handful "maybes" that would seem to have a MAJOR negative impact on 2026, and possibly 2027 as well. When you read reports from other teams how they "won" trades with the Twins, and don't see much in the way of positives for 2026, I really have to question Falvey at this point. It's almost as if they were making all these deals and just said "the hell with it. Let's make a few more"! Again, by itself, you can make arguements about the value of the return for Varland on an individual trade basis. But when you look at the OVERALL CONTEXT of these trades as a COLLECTIVE, you see a team with NO DIRECTION. I suppose Ryan and/or Lopez will be next to HOPEFULLY add some BATS, and the complete teardown and re-build will commence. But considering where this team was less than 24 months ago, some quality prospects about ready to debut, it really didn't have to go down like this.
- 42 replies
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- louis varland
- alan roden
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Going to mostly agree with you here. Martin is still young enough, athletic enough, that with continued hard work he still might be a solid OF. But he also can't succeed as a zero pop/power opposite field slap hitter. To be fair, despite good numbers at St Paul this season, he's barely played due to his hamstring issues. The next 2 months may determine if the Twins even bring him back for 2026. I'm crossing my fingers, but definitely not holding my breath. And as I've stated elsewhere, it's very possible that Fedko, Gonzalez, Olivar, and Rosario may simply overtake him very soon as much better bats who are probably no worse defensively. I also agree that Larnach and Wallner are pretty similar types, with Wallner...at least IMO...clearly the better overall ballplayer. But for NOW, Roden only has a little over a 100 PA, so we really don't know if or when his bat might translate to ML success. (Better speed and defense than Larnach). And Rodriguez and Jenkins aren't quite ready yet. So I still like Larnach as a LH DH and part time corner OF for NOW. I think I'd rather have him than Julien, but that also depends on IF Julien's recent re-surgence is real or not. But like with Martin, it may not matter with better, younger players right behind them. And maybe Larnach gets traded in the offseason. But I also wouldn't mind seeing him back for 2026 as of NOW. *I have very little faith that Outman is going to suddenly re-capture his 2023 form and be of any help for the Twins...still really hate that trade...so I didn't include him.
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- luke keaschall
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Sounds that way. I was at the movies so I can only speak to the box score, the OP, and in general about Sands' season thus far. Thank you for the more complete information.
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- luke keaschall
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If you look at his very brief ML career you will groan and dismiss him immediately. If you look at his career MILB numbers you will see a solid 3.05 ERA, fewer hits than IP, decent BB numbers, and 12.8K per 9. And you then wonder why his success has never translated to ML success, even with a SSS. Your going to see a variety of 28-30yo arms being added and removed from the 26/40 man roster the rest of the season. And you'll probably see a couple added in the offseason, even if/when a couple guys are added via FA. But that's exactly what they SHOULD be doing for now. You SHOULD be looking for the next Stewart...and they've found others over the years...that arm that's been hurt a lot, failed as a starter, couldn't get "over the hump" until now. Every year you see a guy here and there...maybe even after a stint overseas...that transformers from coal to a diamond for this team, or that team, occasionally the Twins. Again, that's how we got Stewart. (REALLY should have kept Jeff Hoffman a couple years ago as well). You ABSOLUTELY keep looking at Adams, Ohl, and other young arms to see if you might have something. You hope like hell Sands re-discovers his 2024 success. But even with a large number of internal and recently acquired SP options available, and some being inevitably moved to the pen...and soon...as a mid market team that has to re-build the 2026 pen, you keep looking at various lumps of coal to see if you can find that diamond. I have no clue if Kriske has any shot to be that. I've honestly never heard of him until right now. But I'd much rather give him a shot than the 33 and 35yo journeymen Urena and Ramirez who I assume were brought up as emergency fill-ins post trade deadline.
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"Welcome back Mr Keaschall. Would you care for a HR in your return to the lineup this evening?" Wow! Another good start from Matthews. He had his best start before his IL stint, and a pair of back to back solid games, IIRC the order properly. Could be a very big last 2 months for him, Festa, and Sims. Let's hope we get the latter 2 back ASAP. Every time I'm still not sure if Clemens has a role in 2026 or not...betting they bring him back...he keeps coming through, albeit with a back that runs hot/cold. But he's having the best season of his career and has been keeping his OPS in the high. 700-.800 range. I believe his swing speed and hard hit % remains the best of his career so far. Is it possible at 29yo a light came on and he really IS a solid role player for the Twins? While not everyone is a fan, I still like Larnach as a DH and part time corner OF. I just like him better in the 6-7 hole rather than "one of our best bats" near the top of the lineup. It's possible he's traded this offseason. It's possible he's traded later than that due to Rodriguez, Jenkins, and the recently acquired Roden being ready to replace him down the road a bit further. But I still like him. Can we PLEASE get the 2024 version of Sands back? Need a new bullpen for 2026? Sands regains some close resembling to last season's version and we can check off one box.
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- luke keaschall
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Twins Claim Pitcher Thomas Hatch from the Royals
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
While still somewhat inconsistent, he's been going longer and probably throwing as well or better than he ever has. His last start is arguably his best. Everything they have been doing to get him to this point might be about to pay off. I'd keep him right where he is for now. Besides, some of the arms they just brought up and added were "break in glass we need somebody" options that won't be around long. Adams and Ohl now get audition time. There's a couple arms just brought over from the deadline deals like Abel and Bradley that should be up very soon. Sands is still there and Topa probably sticks around for now as well. Funderburk probably gets the next 2 months to keep his job. it's not hard to get to at least 6 or 7 for 8 in the pen pretty quickly. Not saying good quality necessarily, but at least better than some of the guys there on temporary stay, and most with some upside. So if the rest of the season doesn't matter, and Raya is progressing just fine where he's at, why not audition the other arms and just let him stay at St Paul for now? -
Twins Claim Pitcher Thomas Hatch from the Royals
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't trust a 30yo with a little over 8K per 9 in his MILB career suddenly cranking it up and turning it up, and suddenly becoming the next Stewart, or anything even close. Still, he's better than Davis and a couple other journeymen we just brought up. -
IDK if the beanibg he had last year has messed him up or not, but Miranda struggling for a mid .500 OPS tells me he's done, unless there really is a medical issue. But even then, is there a fix? There's room for Julien on the roster as a LH DH who can play little 2B/1B once in a while. IF his bat/approach truly is back. But even then, the Twins have a lot of LF OF hitters on the roster, or coming soon. There's even a couple interesting young RH OF coming up. And Keaschall will probably be the 2B very soon, with Schobel, Culpepper, DeBarge, and Houston all potentially ready for starting/utility/depth options begining as soon as 2026. So I dont see a long term fit for Julien. But there's room for him NOW. Martin appears to be an athlete with little/no power that just isn't a natural baseball player. Now, he's still young enough and athletic enough to turn in to at least a competent, consistent OF, if not a little better than that. But opposite field, slap hitters don't provide a lot of offense. Can he not only improve his defense but develop a little more pop in his bat and pull the ball some? I think Martin has the best chance to be a part of the Twins bench the next few years. But Ike with Julien, there's a handful of RH OF that might push him out of a job. (Somehow turning in to a solid CF increases his chances of sticking).
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- jose miranda
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So for the 2nd time today I've lost everything I had posted and can't recover. So I guess I have to try agsin and be more brief. Maybe that's a good thing considering my ability to be long winded, lol. So I guess I'm going to go the bullet point approach to make sure I can get through this post: 1] Abel has been a top 100 prospect almost since he was drafted as a HS arm in 2020. He only slipped out of the top 100 after the recent draft. Great build, great stuff, poor control until this season. Ceiling is a top of the rotation, playoff caliber SP. Floor, depending how you look at it, is backend SP, or top RP. 2] I'm ignoring only the 2nd appearance of MacLeod at AAA. He's a bit behind in development due to injury. He's improved his stuff. I doubt he's a ML starter. He has the potential to be a Thielbar type of pen arm. The conversion should start now. 3] Gallagher seems to have good stuff, good potential, and STEAM as a prospect. Not worried about a bad 1st appearance with a new team a couple of days after being traded. 4] Culpepper is rolling at AA in his 1st FULL SEASON and Jenkins at 20yo is doing great and heating up! But is it OK to slow the roll just a bit and just let them finish 2025 at AA doing well? 5] Am I the only one that keeps thinking Rosario remains a prospect of interest? He was the MVP of the Midwest League in 2023, suffered through injury in 2024 at AA, got off to a HORRIBLE start in 2025, but has kept getting better and better as the season has gone along. 6] Great debut for Mendez! But it's only a couple of games. If he can learn to LIFT the ball beyond his precious 60% ground balls rate, we might have something. 7] Olivar KEEPS hitting and producing. Is he developing more power? Man, I wish I could believe he's more than a #3 catcher option. I still think he's a LF who CAN catch if you need him to.
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Yep. He's probably the best "athlete" the Twins have had at catcher since Mauer. Picked right behind him in the 4th round was Jaime Ferrer, a TOP prep catching prospect who FL St moved to the OF because they already had a catcher in place, who was just recently drafted. Diaw is athletic enough to play some CF, though I doubt he will be there long term in any capacity. And Ferrer plays corner OF and 1B when not catching. The recent addition of 18yo top 100 prospect Eduardo Tait is probably the Twins new #1 catching prospect, even though he's a good 2-3yrs away from a ML debut. But Diaw and Ferrer are reasons I've been yelling on my soapbox for months now for everyone to pay attention for future backstop options. BOTH are ATHLETES with real bat potential who are still raw behind the plate, but offer good to above offense if they can settle in behind the plate. The Twins haven't ignored catching since Jeffers, they've just missed SO FAR on the guys they've drafted since.
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Part of MILB is EVERYONE gets to play. How else do you develop players? You just can't have a set daily lineup, otherwise you end up ignoring everyone else on your roster. PLUS, what if a kid is just better at a different position? OR, can debut at the ML level one day at position X instead of Y because of need and because he actually CAN play position X. This is not unique to the Twins. It's how you develop MILB players. For instance, 2 of the Twins best young catchers are BOTH at A+ right now in Diaw and Ferrer. Both drafted in 2024 back to back, and have the ability to play the OF and 1B. So they swap out time at catcher and other spots as well. And DH is another option to keep their still developing bats in the lineup as a 1/2 day off from playing in the field.
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I always appreciate EVERY MILB post, including the RP articles. But while I appreciate them, and remain interested, I just don't pay attention to the DSL or FCL results because they are just so far away. And a good month at those levels just doesn't hold a lot of weight/promise until said arms rise through the system. I also don't pay a lot of attention to 26-27yo or a 30+yo like Tonkin. But yes, they deserve to be recognized. Xander Hamilton is interesting to be recognized as he was a recent draft choice who might have some potential. He's dealt with an injury or two, but remains young enough to wonder about. I vaguely recall the Twins signing Hoopes. He didn't pitch until this season, so he's a 25yo independent ball rookie who can touch 100mph and blew through both A levels. IF he can do well at AA, he's the pitching version of Payton Eeles. WILL he get an honest look if he keeps it up? Pure velocity doesn't make you a good pitching prospect. There's so much more to it than that. And AA is the sacrificial alter where position players prove they "have it" or they don't. But he might be fun to watch.
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- michael tonkin
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I think we're mostly aligned here. I'm not crazy about Rodon either. But at 25yo, with solid MILB production and just breaking in to MLB, he's got potential. Not as much as Rodriguez or Jenkins, and maybe not as good as what Wallner has shown he can be, but he's got potential. I think he might be a Larnach replacement. I'm also not sold on Bradley. And I think Jax was worth more than just him. His 2025 is a regression from 2024. And coming from the Rays, that's concerning. But at 24yo with ML experience, and SOME success, he's the same age as SWR...I believe...and a year younger than Matthews and Festa. And as smart as the Rays are, they were wrong about Ryan. At worst, they may have another, younger Jax/Duran/Varland pen conversion. Still, that trade seems light. Grudgingly, and with great remorse, I also tend to believe Ryan might be traded in the offseason. He's cheaper than Lopez, slightly better than a fully functioning Ober, and has STEAM. I'd rather keep him and sign him to an extension. But he might bring back a major BAT for the lineup, plus more. I'd just rather keep him. Where we probably disagree is about any pending new ownership. It's really easy and loosely applicable to say they could be as "cheap" as the Pohlads...we have no idea...or that they were part of the sell off at the deadline because they are also cheap...again, we have no idea...or that they had any control over the firesale at all...one more time, we have no idea. IF there is a single new potential buyer just waiting to sign the dotted line...yet again, no clear idea...how much power would they hold unless they have pen in hand? Further, might they have even talked to Falvey about changes that needed to be made for a shakeup of some sort and given their understanding approval? Maybe, IF new owners were involved, they might be working for cleaner books and more financial flexibility to re-invest in the team? I still don't like Jax for a single prospect. And Stewart and Varland being moved does NOTHING for the books. So I'm hesitant to say the deadline was ALL about the bottom line. And despite various opinions held by others, I'm very torn about the Correa trade. And I'm NOT going to go on a tangent regarding him. What's done is done. But at the end of the day, there is another $20M over the next 3yrs that could be re-invested in the team, should the new owners wish to do so. I also agree there's enough talent on hand for 2026 for the team to not tank to the level of recent A's, Dirty Sox, or Rockies level. But it sure would make a difference if Lewis and Wallner could get their s**t together and Rodriguez could get healthy and STAY healthy! If that would happen for Rodriguez, I'd follow the Brewers plan and put him in LF DAY ONE for 2026 and keep him there and let him grow, adjust and figure it out! The biggest issue for 2026...other than new owners and what they might invest in the FA marketplace...is the pen. And with so many options available, it's going to time to trade a couple, and/or, just make moves for some much earlier than you normally would, and get those arms in to the pen to be the next potential Duran, Jax, Stewart, Varland, etc.

