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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Correct. Now, whether or not they pay off the entire debt or just a chunk of it who knows. Maybe they keep a little of the debt on the books for tax credits of some sort and pocket some cash, or invest it elsewhere, who knows. But the payroll shouldn't be affected by the debt at this point. And while I/we have no idea how much of a say the new minority owners have...if any...I don't know that they are in favor of seeing the payroll for their new investment being cut down further. It's part of the reason I see some $ being added to the payroll and no further cuts.
- 87 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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It was reported that the % of the team purchased...and we don't know how much yet...was based on the full price of the team. Meaning share were based on a $1.7B value price. And while I don't recall the exact quote, it was stated that this new $ would go towards paying down the debt.
- 87 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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Who knows with this ownership? They escalate payroll and talk about a new era, and then tear it down. But a couple of points: 1] The new minority owners buy-in pretty much eliminates the borrowed debt. The books are clean. 2] As pointed out in the OP, ownership gave the FO about $15M "extra" to play with, though the bump came late. 3] I don't see them keeping Larnach. Not with Roden just acquired, and top prospects Rodriguez and Jenkins about ready to debut. And, of course, they still have Wallner. There's also some interesting RH OF options really close. So Larnach is moved...possibly in a package with a prospect...for whatever they can get. That puts the payroll at approximately $90M WITH Lopez and Ryan. In my personal plan, Josh Naylor is brought on to fill 1B and provide a veteran in the lineup and lockerroom. $15M? Payroll is only $105M I love the idea of Coulombe back for one more season. He was phenomenal all year in his 1 out or 1 inning role. $3M? Payroll is still only $108M. They just aren't going to spend a lot on the pen. They'll have a couple "leftovers", a couple starter conversions, and they'll bring in fliers trying to find the next Stewart/Thielbar/Wisler/etc. Some will be invites, but a couple will be 40 man additions. More than likely guys coming off injuries or recovery seasons, or just down years. But probably all on 1yr make good deals. 2 or 3 at $2-3M each maximum. That's another $6-$9M. Let's go with the high number. (Too early to speculate names with the season still running). Payroll is now $117M. Jeffers needs a backup. They just don't have one. And like with some pen fliers, it's hard to speculate an actual name until the season is over. But approximately $3M should bring in a decent option. (My brain thinks Diaz who signed for about that last year). Payroll sits around $120M, which is $10M less than this current season. In addition to Keaschall, you've got a handful of top/very solid prospects ready to debut. You still have your rotation intact, with even more depth and options. And you go to camp with about 14 arms to build the pen between returnees, converted starters, MILB invites from in and out of the system, and 3-4 rostered FA signings. You're not not going to rebuild the pen overnight. But can you put a respectable one together? A couple guys rebounding and the prospects rising...(better team speed and defense)...I think you can squint and see a better team/record in 2026 vs this season.
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- pablo lopez
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*Tait bats LH. He's not a switch hitter. That would be Jiminez * I'm guessing Young will end up at 3B or OF. I'd have Winokur and Soto worked in here. They're definitely top 10 for sure.
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How Can the Twins Win Back Fans and Fix their PR Issues?
DocBauer replied to Vanimal46's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Only ONE way to keep fans. (Excluding really dumb and potential AI emails sent out to the public). Spend! The debt is gone, or mostly gone, depending how they want to disperse the sudden $400-500M they just received. The debt is now cleared. The $130M payroll this season put the Twins in the bottom 3rd of all of MLB. DON'T trade Lopez or Ryan. DO give the FO $25-30M to spend on a BAT, probably a 1B like Naylor. Then a few $M on 2-3 arms for the pen. You STILL have only a $120M payroll. Less than last/this season. That's for ownership. If you're Falvey, get your crap together and STOP with your BS fear of prospects. KEEP your rotation intact and promote the talent you have on hand and get the fans excited! Follow the Brewers more and let Rodriguez, Jenkins, K Rodriguez, Fedko, Gonzalez sink or swim and rotate if needed, but give the fans an actual reason to want to watch the team! Talk in depth with your scouts and find good reasons to spend the $ given to you. Maybe add a quality 1B and a couple interesting BP arms that might turn out to close games. You know what draws fans? A fun and winning team. -
I have a big complaint but really no complaints at the moment.
DocBauer replied to Riverbrian's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I don't understand the TANKING philosophy unless your organization is just at a DEAD END due to age, injury, lost talent to FA, etc. It sometimes works in a more controlled environment like the NFL, for example, where draft picks and UDFA, and the signing of FA might provide a fairly quick turnaround. But it seldom works out the way as planned as MLB is still dependent on prospects for development or trade. Unless you have massive amounts of $ to spend freely. In fairly recent history, the Astro's were both smart and lucky and made it work. The Orioles climbed the ladder for about a season and then collapsed. The Royals endured how many poor seasons before throwing some $ at additions along with some good players and got their shot. What happened to Falvey's comments about competitive competition? Right now, TODAY, the Twins have a great 1-3 rotation arms and depth to compete. They have a few guys with great talent in Lewis and Wallner that need to "figure it out" and get ready for 2026. Hopefully, Lee keeps on an uptick to finally realize what zones he can HIT in and stop chasing crap he only makes week contact in. He SEEMS to be on the right path. And the organization has so many top 100-ish players like Keaschall...already performing...and Jenkins, Rodriguez, and K-Pepper so very close. STARTING PITCHING is the hardest thing to develop. And with a hopefully healthy Ober for 2026, with Matthews as #4, and tons of depth completion behind them, WHY IN HELL would you destroy what you have in place??!! In what business world and product model do you just destroy everything you've built when you might about to reap dividends? But maybe that's the Pohlad idea of success. Just settle for what you have, borrow against it, and then trade it in for less than you could have had. -
I have a big complaint but really no complaints at the moment.
DocBauer replied to Riverbrian's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
OK, who are YOU and where is the @Riverbrianwe all know and love? LOL I'll pick up the mantle a bit here since you are obviously on meds of some sort. 😁 Having more LH bats is a GOOD THING. When those LH bats include Outman, Keirsey, and Julien, it's NOT a good thing. @LA VIkes Fanhas posted numbers recently that even though Wallner has had a disturbingly and unexpected down season, he's actually IMPROVED his numbers against LHP beyond a suck point. I think that was the plan all along sans his injury that has seemed to disrupt his whole season somehow. Larnach ended up inheriting those AB and has responded with a major OOMPH! The fact that the current roster includes DOUBLE TROUBLE with BOTH Outman and Keirsey is beyond ridiculous! NEITHER can HIT AT ALL. (To be fair, maybe Keirsey hasn't been given an honest chance). But with so much 40 man roster flexibility available right now, why in HELL wouldnt the FO just add Fedko as a RH bat having the best season of his career and see if he might actually have potential for the future? He'd also be pre-arbitration at this point. And if you really didn't like what you saw, you could remove from the 40 man. As far as relievers than can throw a couple solid innings and come back for more 2 days later? I still think it's a solid idea. I like it a hell of a lot better than throwing an arm to the wolves and swapping them out for a different arm. Rinse and repeat. IMO, you build a pen of 6 1 IP arms and have TWO guys at 7-8 who can go 1-2 IP every 2 days as a bridge to your other 6. Maybe they do 3 IP on occasion. But if it's only 40 pitches, 2 days off should be enough. I think the Twins are on to something here. Provided, of course, that you don't have a crappy rotation. The current problem is Adams and Ohl are not only rookies, and initial test subjects for this idea, but the rest of the pen is CRAP. But I still think it's a good way to re-invent the bullpen. -
OK, I'm also obsessed at this point with the future and not the rest of this icky season. (Other than watching Buxton, Keaschall, Bradley, and hopefully strong end of year production/improvement from a few others). And I DESPISE repeating myself yet again with the same mantra, are they, or do they need to trade Lopez and Ryan? I'm sorry, but with Roden just acquired, Rodriguez and Jenkins so very close, Gonzalez and maybe even Fedko close, they just aren't going to pay Larnach $5M. He's either traded...possibly with a decent lower level prospect...or non-tendered. I'm betting he has SOME value to a team starved for a LH bat with a career .765 OPS against RHP. That puts the payroll at $90M. That's $40M+ less than this season, with previous debt now eliminated. I ONLY bring this up as it does affect HOW the pen is re-built. Prielipp is learning a 2 seamer. So he's out of any immediate conversion to the pen. He's staying a SP for now. Rojas was just acquired, has a lot of talent, should probably be at AA, but isn't going to the pen any time soon either. IF the Twins keep even ONE of Ryan or Lopez...please tell me they aren't stupid/greedy enough to move both and destroy what's left of the fanbase...it still "helps" the rotation. Matthews is developing and turning a corner. He's a lock as the #3 or #4 in the rotation. I think we forget how young SWR still is, and how weird his career has been thus far. I don't believe he's a top of the rotation arm, but he's in the mix for one of the last spots. So is Bradley, who is almost the same age. I believe the Twins see him as a viable SP with some tweaks to his repertoire. That's your 5 or 6, probably. Abel is not moving to the pen at this point, and neither is Morris. That puts you another 2 deep along with the still developing Rojas. And let's not forget the often overlooked Klein that is looking more and more like a complete steal. Sands is finishing this season looking more like his 2024 version. Can he get back there? Topa is cheap, has a year of control, and doesn't completely stink as a middle man option. Ohl and Adams are former starters on the new trial plan of 3-4 IP every 4 days. They've had good AAA seasons with mixed results debuting as rookies. Surprise! But either, or both, could be part of the 2026 pen as 1 or 2 IP options. And I'd like to see BOTH getting that opportunity in September. Funderburk has flashed, and stunk. He's been mostly good so far since the deadline getting regular work. He might be an option. Cory Lewis has gone from MILB pitcher of the year to an injury that affected part of his 2024 season to a guy who has struggled in his 1st season at AAA as the Twins are changing up his pitch mix and asking him to throw his crazy Knuckleball more. Imagine what he might do with max velocity and then tossing that pitch up on 0-2 and 1-2 counts? He should be converted tomorrow. The Twins have been super cautious and deliberate with Raya as he's got some good stuff. He's been throwing out of the pen as of late. Are they watching his IP? Or are they seeing a potentially dominate arm out of the pen? Christian MacLeod is a LH arm who's career was slowed by injury. His AA numbers were very good before recently moving to AAA in the pen. (Not a good start so far). Festa is a tantalizing arm I WANT in the rotation. And maybe his shoulder issues this season are just a blip. But maybe he's on the same trajectory as Duran was previously. I think a lot of people have forgotten how good CJ Culpepper has performed when healthy. But he's a 6 pitch pitcher with a solid FB that reportedly tails off some once he gets a couple IP under his belt. Doesn't mean he can't be a ML SP, but doesn't he sound a bit like a young Jax? There's a few more potential internal arms to consider, but they're probably midseason at best to consider. It's WAY too early yet to name exact targets, but why not Coulombe back for a 1yr deal at the same $3M? Thielbar had a really solid season for Detroit in their MILB system but let him go and the Twins brought him back in to the fold for 3 really good years. Stewart was a former top prospect who was always injured who gave the Twins some outstanding work when healthy. Burns my butt to this day, but the Twins had a rebounding Jeff Hoffman in camp the same year and didn't hold on to him. My goodness, they even got a solid 1yr from Parker and Wisler a few years ago. Same with Clippard. So you START with Sands. You probably keep Topa as a cheap middle man. You probably hold on to Funderburk and hope he can finally translate his stuff. ONE of Adams and/or Ohl should help on the front end of the pen. A healthy Festa converted could potentially give you a nice 1-2 punch with Sands on the back end. MAYBE Larnach and a decent lower level prospect brings back someone's 4th pen arm. Not counting on it, but it's a possibility. THEN, after you bring back Coulombe, or maybe Chafin on a 1yr deal, you're looking for arms coming off a poor season at the wrong time. Maybe someone coming back from surgery that wasn't all the way back in 2025? Maybe a 28-29yo SP that just hasn't been able to reach their potential and have been cut loose? The FO has been creative and smart before. Can they be again? They just aren't going to spend a ton of $, so they HAVE to be creative and smart. I KNOW this is an extreme example, but when Walker Buehler was recently released, I thought it would be awesome for the 31yo...who hasn't been good for 4 years...might sign with someone for the pen. Of course, SOMEONE will probably bet on his SP rebound potential and give him another shot. But what if that DOESN'T happen? Would Taylor Rogers want to come "home" for 1 more year? My whole point is they just aren't going to convert a bunch of 24-25yo SP arms overnight to build a pen. But other than Twins fans, who knew who Thielbar was? I'd bet the average fan had no idea who Stewart, Wisler, and Parker were. You START with Festa moving to the pen, similar to Duran, where he can crank it up for 1 IP. You have Sands as a possible #2. You probably have Topa to at least begin the season. You audition Ohl and Adams. Considering they have options, maybe they're the 8th man rotation man. You bring in an inexpensive LH option like Coulombe for 1yr as a veteran. You're open and honest with guys like Morris, MacLeod, Lewis, and Raya about being in the ML and opportunity to debut, earn more initially, and more in the future. And then you target 3-4 arms on ML or MILB deals that HAVE ARMS of quality, and NEED opportunity. Again, it's just way too early to list targets. And I really didn't want to get so long winded here, but it's a really complex issue. Trading Lopez or Ryan, or both changes everything. Trading one has a serious affect. Trading neither gives the 2026 team a fighting chance IF they can re-build the pen on the fly. Festa, Sands, Topa, Funderburk, Coulombe or like, Adams, Ohl, Lewis, MacLeod, possibly Raya and/or CJ Culpepper, and then 3 to 4 rebound candidates either looking for an opportunity or looking to earn a better deal in 2017 is how you CAN build a "decent" bullpen for 2026.
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Can the Twins Compete in 2026? At all? A response.
DocBauer replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I appreciate your opinion. I really do. And I understand your perspective and frustration with the team right now, the moves made, and questions about the FO and ownership. But the whole point of the thread was a response to "CAN they compete". And IMO, that's different than WILL they compete. CAN and WILL come down to ownership and the FO. Imagine, just for a moment, that they KEEP Lopez and Ryan. With all the talent available, you have a good rotation and depth. Now imagine Lewis and Wallner rebound, and Lee keeps progressing. You've got top prospects like Keaschall, Rodriguez, Jenkins, and K-Pepper arrived, or very close to doing so. What if they add a solid 1B with a solid bat? That means a team that MIGHT compete if they can smartly add a couple decent pen arms, and transition a couple arms for the pen and just be solid/competent there. So it's not an overly optimistic belief about WILL THEY. It's about a few smart additions without blowing up the payroll and providing a CAN THEY opportunity. So I began this thread with the CAN THEY idea/response. -
So I'm late to this one, but going to give my opinion. The Twins had a $130+ payroll in 2025. I don't believe they are going to pay Larnach $5M when they just acquired Roden, and have Jenkins and Rodriguez just about ready to debut. They've also got Gonzalez close from the RH side, with Fedko and Rosario as possibles in the near future as well. So that's $90M after expected arbitration increases WITH Lopez and Ryan still on the roster. With the amount of $ coming in from the 2 new minority owners, they either eliminate their debt entirely, or most of it. (Maybe they keep a little debt for tax purposes?)? And do the minority owners get ANY SAY at the table now? Would they really be in favor of investing and then seeing additional cuts and additional fan apathy? You wouldn't have to be a genius ownership to see fan disgruntlement and rapidly declining attendance. You could add a BAT, and a couple interesting, bounceback type of pen arms, convert a couple more young arms to the pen, and maybe end up with something half way decent beyond the dumpster fire that is currently the Twins pen. Even IF they spent $20-25M for a few additions, the payroll maxes out around $120M TOPS. That's $30M+ less than 2025, but you might just offer fans a little hope. And if Lewis, Wallner, and Lee rebound, and you've got Keaschall and a handful of other top prospects ready to debut, the turnstiles might actually turn. So I'm going to say OVER on the payroll. But who knows how much influence Joe actually has over the rest of the family.
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I don't think there's any doubt that Tait is currently the top catching prospect in the system. But Jiminez has been described as a young Vazquez behind the plate, and much better, potentially, AT the plate. I'm still surprises Detroit kept him at the FCL level for a 2nd season. I think the Twins did the right thing moving him to Ft Myers. But I never saw this kind of hot streak coming! He's probably not close to this good as a hitter, but it's encouraging to see him embrace this opportunity and finish strong. With solid defense and a strong arm, a switch hitting catcher with power could carve out a nice ML career in a few years. Speaking of catchers, good on Pareda for having a strong month. I don't know if he'll even be the #3 man in 2026 or not, but I find it a bit strange that he's not getting a looksee at the end of the season. While not as good of a hitter as Gasper, he's more of a true catcher, I believe, and has hit at the AAA level well. I guess they just really want to see if Gasper has a future with the team or not. Prospect wise, I have no doubt that the younger Gonzalez looks to probably have a better future than Fedko. But the whole age thing/debate bothers me a bit. If a guy "figures it out" later than hoped for/expected, all I care is whether or not he can help the team. Yes, he's going to be 26yo on September 21st as the AAA season comes to a close. But he was about 25 and 6 months when the season started. Should the extra 6 months just eliminate him from being a possible option for the Twins? A college player is occasionally 20yo when drafted, but are usually 21-22yo when selected. To have a breakthrough in his age 25 season tells me he's worth giving honest consideration to. Fedko just might end up with a 30/30 season between AA and AAA, has usually had a really good OB%, and might be able to fill in at 4 spots, potentially, and provide a mix of ability as a 4th OF. He's having an outstanding season overall, and I'd like to think that means a serious looksee as a contributor for 2026. There's room for a player of his skill set, especially from the RH side, and to not be given a look this month when they have Outman AND Keirsey on the Twins right now is an extremely poor use of potential assets and determination of value. I wasn't really sure what to think about Rosario as a "covid kid" when selected in 2020. But then he improved across the board and became the MWL MVP in the 2023 season. Then he's hurt in 2024 and misses about a third of the season. You follow that up with a horrendous April this year and the knee jerk reaction is to dismiss him. Instead, he goes on a run and is actually finishing the season actually stronger than any of his previous months. He just might win a SECOND MVP award in 3yrs! I DON'T believe he's any kind of 20SB threat going forward. But it shows he's not just a stiff, non-athletletic slugger. His K% anywhere in the 20's with a decent BB rate and legitimate XB and HR power is just fine if he can maintain that. He's got a strong arm from all that I've ever read. I think he's "Wallner-like" in that he needs to polish reads and routes, continue to keep a decently solid BB/K ratio. If he continues on his current progression, I see a future as a part time OF/DH who might even be a 1B conversation candidate. He's barely 23yo and missed some time due to covid and his injury in '23. But again, barely 23yo and just might win his 2nd leage MVP award? That's a guy that shouldn't be dismissed as an actual prospect despite a poor and injury affected 2024.
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- walker jenkins
- dashawn keirsey jr
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A whole new statistic to measure how bad performers might not really be that bad? Clemens hasn't looked bad with a glove anywhere he's played so far. He's had some big AB for the team. I can see brought to camp next season to see if he might be a solid bench option. If he could maintain a .700-ish OPS with that LH power, he might be useful. They should be looking for someone better though. Maybe someone from their own system that they haven't given a chance to yet? (Amazing how waiver wire acquisitions receive precedence of in house options). He's a poor hitter with poor OB ability. He's simply a poor offensive player. Trying to find ways to say he's better and more valuable than what he is straw grasping. Again, possible bench option if the power stays as is and he can somehow keep a .700 OPS going. But let's pretend he's anything better than that.
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Just to add...and I'm repeating myself for the umpteenth time here...it's my belief that Raya was added to the 40 man because of risk of losing him. I've NEVER believed the Twins expected him to debut this season. It's always been a slow play with him for various reasons. (Watch them promote him and prove me wrong, LOL). I'm still uncertain whether or not his future lies in the rotation or the pen. But regardless of his future role, a 4th round pick out of HS in the crazy 2020 draft, overcoming a missed season due to covid, and another one due to shoulder issues, to become even a good BP arm would be a success story. But I would still have him as a SP for 2026 to begin the season. I agree with you 100% on Prielipp. IDK that he might be a dominate BP arm for 2026. And I GET the idea of bullets in the gun mantra and not using them when you can. But his 2nd surgery WASN'T a 2nd TJ. It was adding the mesh brace to his elbow that was rather new when he had his 1st TJ surgery. I still believe he needs a 4th offering...rumors have it they are working on one...his biggest issue is just LEARNING how to be a PITCHER and not just a thrower. Despite some very good numbers this season, he's a little like Matthews, in regard to setting up batters. His BABIP numbers indicate that. Should we care if he's a really good looking SP late in 2026 as a 25yo? Should we even care if he turns in to a potential top of the rotation arm in 2027 as a 26yo? He can always be moved to the pen at any time. Adams and Ohl should BOTH be in the pen ASAP to see about 2026. PERIOD. The whole 1-2 IP development of them during this season every 3-4 days is right in front for everyone to see. They should be up and throwing as hard and best as they can for 1-2 innings. That should already being part of the plan. I think we're in agreement there. I like Morris more than you do. His 2024 season was only a half step behind Matthews. I still think SWR has another level to reach at a still really young age...another pitch or just learning how to set up batters better...but I think Morris might just overtake SWR really soon as a viable SP candidate. Rojas should probably be in AA right now, but I can't disagree with challenging a kid with his stuff. But what do we do with Culpepper? When healthy, he just keeps getting guys out and doing a great job. If it weren't for a ST injury holding him back, he'd probably be at AAA weeks or months ago. I'd argue that Lewis...former MILB pitcher of the year...who had an injury in 2024 that set him back somewhat, and who has been working on sequencing differently this season and has only recently been looking better, might be in the same boat as CJ. What's your thoughts? I'm thinking CJ and 6 pitches with max velocity makes him a Jax type replacement soon. And I'm imagining Lewis throwing hard for 1 inning with his other offerings and then throwing that crazy, hard knuckleball on 0-2 or 1-2 counts. I understand some of what I've stated is a bit off topic in regards to MILB SP. But there is some overlay presented here.
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- ty langenberg
- mick abel
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Nobody wants to hear this, including me, but it's POSSIBLE that Abel is a, more or less, replacement for the guy he was traded for in Duran. But while I've been disappointed in his initial appearances, I've been disappointed many times previously in rookie SP. Witness Berrios when he first came up, and more recently, Matthews, who looks like he's starting to settle in. And Abel is working on a new sweeper as well. It's a mistake to get worked up over a young arm not BLOWING UP in their debut. Pitching at the ML level is HARD! BUT I do wonder if he might not turn out to be a stud reliever if he doesn't get his BB under control. Rojas should probably be at AA Wichita based on age and IP. The Twins are being aggressive with him. He probably won't be ready until mid 2026, but the talent is there. Can you imagine the CR rotation in 2026 with Olivares, Soto, Hill, and Bohorquez as the prime 4? And there are a couple other interesting arms to add before we even talk about 2025 picks who haven't even thrown and inning yet! I've had a really good feeling about Langenberg since he was drafted. I initially thought he might move to AA this year based on a solid 2024 debut. Not only didn't he advance, he was pretty bad to begin this season back at CR. But whatever he's been working on seems to be "working" as he's been on a roll for a couple months now. He's definitely in AA to begin 2026. CJ Culpepper is kind of a favorite prospect of mine as he tends to be in the background compared to fellow 2022 draftees like Matthews, Morris, and Lewis, prior to Lewis's struggles this season. CJ didn't throw a ton in college and was a bit of a late bloomer flier as a 13th round pick that season after a jump in his 3rd year at a non power program. He's had a couple mild injuries that have slowed him a bit. But he's been very good when healthy. His numbers have been good across the board, even though you'd like to see a little better K per 9. I'm NO EXPERT, but it's been my understanding he throws 6 pitches. And while all of them are solid offerings, none of them are dominant. I've also heard his velocity dips a bit after a few IP. That's not to say he isn't a viable ML prospect as a backend starter. But he kind of reminds me of a young Jax. I wonder if he might not just be an excellent BP candidate who could get both sides out with his arsenal of pitches, and throw hard for 1-2 innings.
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- ty langenberg
- mick abel
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Too bad a horrendous pitching performance at AAA overshadowed some good player performances. Personally, I could care less if Jenkins starts next season with the Twins or the Saints. The talent is real. It's only a matter of what date he debuts. No matter how excited I am about him, I can wait until June 1st or July 1st if that's what's best for him. We're talking about a 21yo who might be a generational Twin. Great start at Wichita by Gallagher. I've noticed Bowen has been coming out of the pen these days. He was inconsistent this season, but has flashed at times. I wonder if this is an innings concern or a permanent move. Hoopes with ANOTHER good appearance out of the pen. And Whitaker is a 2024 draft choice that I have largely forgotten about. Take away 2 appearances and 4 IP after being drafted, and this is almost a rookie pro season for him. He's a big kid with solid numbers this year. The K's have to come up for him to have a chance as a 25yo professional "rookie" late round pick. But I find it interesting that while AAA had a poor pen for this season, AA and below has a collection of interesting arms that might actually have potential as future pen arms. Rosario keeps producing. I doubt he maintains his sudden rise as a base stealer going forward. But it's a further indicator he's not some slow, lumbering power bat. And he's got a good arm from every report I've ever heard. I think his defense hinges on better reads and routes. How well he hits RHP will determine his future, IMO. He might be a quality RH bat in the OF, DH, or even 1B. He's starting to look a 40 man add this offseason. A tremendous start by Olivares for CR! The consistency isn't there yet, but the talent sure is. How good might CR's rotation be in 2026 with him, Bohorquez, Soto, and Hill as a starting point? Wow! The Box Score for Ft Myers lists Sprock as the catcher and Jiminez as the 1B. Is that maybe an error? Or are they looking at Sprock as a possible catcher conversion candidate? Considering Jiminez had a solid 2024, I was surprised the Tigers had him repeating this season in the FCL level. Very happy to see the Twins move him directly to A- after the trade. What's surprising to me is both leagues are still dealing with the "dead air" of Florida in the summer. But he's been performing better at the higher level so far. Not hard to get excited about the catcher position in the Twins minors with Cardenas rebounding from a bad 2024, the addition of Diaw and Ferrer in last year's draft, and then adding Tait and Jiminez in trades recently.
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- kalai rosario
- jose olivares
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Nick, I love that your passion for the Twins mirrors my own. And that's saying a lot. I'm almost 60 and spent YEARS of my youth grabbing any rag I could find to read about the team and the MILB system. Years of strong and weak west coast static filled broadcasts to listen to games. LOVED trips and summers at my grandma's house in my hometown in S.D. just to catch a few games on TV. Lately, I feel some of your posts have been coming from a disappointed and almost desperate fan perspective. Dare I say a confused and Pissed Off perspective? There! I said it! LOL I feel the same way my Twins brother. I want the Twins to find THEIR IDENTITY. Call me crazy if you will, but as many times as I've questioned decisions made by the Falvey lead FO...and I have a few ongoing questions currently...I believe Falvey HAS/HAD a certain direction for the Twins. I think that direction included various aspects borrowed from Cleveland, Milwaukee, and Tampa Bay. Again, I have issues with various decisions made, or currently in flux, I can see examples of producing a SINGULAR identity from draft changes, to FA, to trades for Ryan and Lopez. IMO, the biggest opportunity for the Twins was to follow something ALL these teams did which was to NOT ignore the talent on hand and give them their shot. For whatever reason, probably being burned a few seasons from injury, the Falvey lead FO has started to construct a roster almost out of FEAR. Which is weird as they've been seemingly negligent in assembling some of their AAA teams, but not cutting poor ML rostered players, and actually giving other players/pitchers opportunities. I've always stated and will again state, I would have LOVED to see what Falvey MIGHT have done following 2023 if ownership had just allowed a normal 10-20% increase based on normal payroll inflation. I AM for the idea of Jenkins getting a 7-8-9 year deal for $80-90-100M deal. I'm with you 100% because, not of the percentages of top prospect numbers succeeding, but because of his talent production and what he's already accomplished at his age. But there is then the rub. Even IF the Pohlads and their STILL unamed minor partners have clear books, the Pohlads are still head of the board. Despite rumors that the Twins still might be open for sale in the near future, they are still in charge. Exactly WHO the new investors are and how much control they have is TBD. I just don't see a deal for Jenkins actually happening unless ALL owners believe Falvey that's it a good idea. And maybe that happens. I've heard previously that Zoll has been instrumental in many deals behind the scenes. But WHO THE HELL IS ACTUALLY IN CHARGE? The Asros owner bypassed Zoll, and Falvey, and Joe Pohlad, and went to Jim Pohlad to get the Correa deal done. Sorry Nick, but a big extension for Jenkins might make sense if and when anyone figures out who in hell is actually in charge of what's going on.
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No. These types of decisions aren't about $. These are inexpensive players we are talking about. It's really 2 factors IMO: 1] They are so damned SCARED/WORRIED about depth and missing out by giving up someone too soon, that they hold on to them too good at times. 2] Combined with point #1, they are just short sighted at times. I can excuse Davis coming up as he's only filler until Lopez is brought back in a couple of days. He, or someone as bad, will be gone then. And Adams has the potential to convert to a potentially decent pen arm the same way many others have previously. But Keirsey AND Outman on the same losing team? Why?! They won't have room for both on the offseason 40 man roster, and perhaps neither! So instead of bringing up Fedko...a RH OF who can potentially help at 4 spots and who is also a potential 40 man add anyway...to get some ML time/experience in a losing season they have a clones that offer almost the exact same profile. Why? What good does this do to help set 40 man roster ideas for 2026? None. IF they actually like Gasper and think they'll keep him, and for SOME reason think he might actually be able to catch at the ML level...(cough)...then let him catch at St Paul the rest of the way and take a look at Perada to see if you even want to bring him back, much less seeing him as a #3 option for 2026. At least he's a true catcher. I'm not sure Gasper ever was, or could be. And while I think his HIT ability still needs a few more months at AAA, why not Cardenas? He's actually got a good arm, I've always heard he's solid behind the plate and calls a solid game, and he's almost always maintained a good OB% indicating he has some zone control, and isn't just some automatic out. Again, I don't think he's quite ready for the ML level, but how much worse could he be with the bat than Gasper? And he's also a legitimate catcher. I get Morris just coming back from injury and letting him finish the season at AAA. Same with Lewis who has been better as of late...and might be a perfect bullpen transition arm...but who has struggled most of the season staying at AAA to finish the year. I see reasons for keeping Raya down similarly. I never expected him to debut this year. He's on a deliberate slow play for 2026 at some point. So the pitching cupboard is pretty bare from AAA at this point. But it's borderline stupid to have Ohl down at AAA at this point. I sorta, kinda understand wanting to give Hatch and guys like Cabrera, Kriske, and maybe even Davis a little more time/rope to see if you are at all interested in bringing ANY of them back, Ohl at least has some potential. Right now, these other fliers are only proving you DON'T want them back. So get Ohl back up ASAP. But NOT bringing up a still only 25yo RH OF with speed and power with helium having a breakout season in Fedko instead of either Keirsey or Outman is beyond short sighted. It's an egregious error in roster management to prepare for the offseason and 2026. The whole Gasper situation is confounding, to say the least. He just hasn't HIT at all! He's not even a natural catcher based on Boston removing him from those duties, and a seemingly poor arm. And I understand I'm repeating myself, but the FO should already know if they want to bring him back at this point or not. Either way, they should use September to take a good look at other alternatives to even be the #3 option next year.
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- travis adams
- noah davis
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I don't know if I see Chaney as much of a prospect even if he is switching to the pen full time. IMO, he's too old to be at CR. But Baker, while a little longer in the tooth as well, is at AAA now at least. Might he find success in the pen going forward? He did pretty well at AA this year. Parades has been really consistent in his results. But does he have enough pure stuff to get ML hitters out at some point? I had let myself fall asleep on Bragg because, as is typical, he didn't throw in a game after being drafted. Then he only threw about 8 innings in 2024 due to injury. That's why he was sent to the AFL this past offseason. He performed pretty poorly so I just dismissed him from memory. But I went and looked at his season numbers a couple days ago after I noticed him popping up a lot in game write ups. He's having a hell of a season! Great ERA, low HIT numbers, and high K numbers. He gets his BB down a little bit more and he could rise QUICKLY. This is actually not just his first full season, but almost his first season PERIOD if you take away the 8 IP last year. I had totally forgotten about Hunter Hoopes as well. Not intentionally, but non drafted arms tend to either disappear quickly, or remain in the lower minors for a couple of years. And I just pay more attention to starters at those levels. The video showing him hit 107 is impressive to be sure. But he's not throwing from a mound doing that. It's just a wild, running start and full effort toss. But 25yo...and same age until early March...and putting up great numbers this 1st season with the Twins and reaching AA already is encouraging. A great ERA, only 22 HITS in 49 IP, and 19 BB and an impressive 62K in those 49 IP is very impressive. He and Bragg just might the real deal, and both anomalies: actual MILB RP that make it AS RP, and not just failed starters later converted. Not on this list, but is it my imagination or has LH Jaylin Nowlin at AA been throwing better as of late?
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- hunter hoopes
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Whom Could Minnesota Twins Trade This Offseason?
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Larnach by himself, or part of a package, to someone who could use a LH DH/OF with a career OPS of .765 against RHP. Maybe they can even get a decent pen arm or pen arm possibility out of the deal? Everyone else should stay where they are and ownership should hand about $30M to the FO for some additions for a solid BAT, a decent backup catche, and 2-3 pen fliers that might pay off.. Even then, they wouldn't match this year's payroll. Then start playing more of the top kids, and figure out who are the best options to the pen.- 46 replies
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- ryan jeffers
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Adams, sure. There's some clay to work with there. But Davis has looked awful so far, without hardly a glimmer of hope. And they already have Keirsey on the roster. He goes by the name of Outman now. For the love of the baseball gods, how about ANYONE who offers potential to actually help the team going forward. But Keirsey AND Outman on the same team to close out a losing season? There's just no sense in that.
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Langenberg continues to be on a roll! Definitely looks ready for AA next season. Probably not worth it to send him there now. All but AAA almost done with their regular seasons. Good news on Hill. That was scary! I've really fallen asleep on LH Kade Bragg. Selected late in 2023 and only got about 8 IP in 2024 before going to the AFL where he didn't exactly shine. But while his BB this year are a little high at 4.3 per 9, his K rate is 11.4 per 9. And only 41 hits in 60 IP is very impressive. Gotta make sure I keep an eye on him going forward.
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- walker jenkins
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If the Twins do decide to tear the whole thing down...and I sure hope they don't...then I also wouldn't want a veteran SS blocking a prospect like Culpepper. But I believe there's still room for veteran depth options and clubhouse leaders. I believe in being aggressive with top prospects, but I don't necessarily believe in pushing them just for the sake of doing so. For example, there's a difference between Funderburk being up soon and even being pushed a little, and moving Tait to the Twins or AAA just because you can. When I use $150M as a floor, I'm just tossing out a number that makes some sense to me. Maybe that number should be closer to $100M? But with equal revenue sharing across the league, I just can't imagine teams not being able to have a payroll above $100M as a floor. The NFL doesn't have a true FLOOR CAP, but all teams must spend 90% of the current CAP over a 3 year period, broken up how they would like. I don't think any NFL teams spend that little over a 3 year period. But it does allow for a team to tank and rebuild. MLB could have a cap floor as I've stated, and whether it was $100M or $125M or $150M, I have a hard time believing an industry that brings in tens of billions of $ couldn't have all teams meet that minimum. However, I could understand provisions that that allow a team to be at a certain % below that floor as they rebuild. Possibly something like 25% below for a single season in a 3yr time frame, 15% below in another season, and 10% below in a 3rd season. But then not again for a 2-3 year period. That allows for teams that suddenly get old, suddenly have a bunch of injured players to move on from, and allows for a sudden loss of expensive players all at once who may sign elsewhere. This offers up a little financial flexibility for teams in re-build mode and doesn't FORCE them to sign guys they don't even want. But again, actually, true revenue sharing across the league should allow all teams to at least be able to meet the minimum. But I'm OK with provisions as I've suggested above for temporary time frames during a re-build.
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Next Year's Roster - A Thought Experiment. Can You do Better?
DocBauer commented on LA Vikes Fan's blog entry in LA Vikes Fan
So while I appreciate this exercise and run through TONS of options in my head daily, there IS a difference between OPENING DAY versus say JUNE 1st. You mentioned May 1st due to control options. I'm going to ignore the Twins playing that game and just guess "readiness". But let's play it as a bit of BOTH maybe? Of course, we're assuming good health. OUTFIELD: OPENING DAY? Wallner, Buxton, Rodriguez, Outman, and Fedko If Rodriguez is healthy, he should be placed in LF DAY ONE and allowed to sink or swim, following the Brewers MO. It's time, and the option clock is ticking. There's also depth to send him down for a re-set it needed. The FO has Fedko playing some 1B right now. That tells me they are interested in having him as a versatile option. They might be finally giving up on Martin, but it's a really tough call just considering how the FO USUALLY operates. Are they FINALLY going to "man up" and just play the best players and quit OBSESSING about mediocre depth? Outman is superfluous with Rodriguez able to backup CF, but he's out of options, they don't want to admit they got nothing in the trade of Stewart. He's got the Keirsey role to begin the season. JUNE FIRST?: Really depends on Rodriguez. But Jenkins may be flashing enough to prove he's ready. There's room for Both considering the team doesn't have a full time DH. Outman is gone. Fedko might be in danger of losing his job to Gonzalez. INFIELD: OPENING DAY? Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, and FA Josh Naylor. And yes, I'm serious here. Naylor gives the team a quality lineup presence, settles 1B, provides some leadership, and fits in to the budget that begins at $90M when Larnach is gone. Clemens will be back as a 4-5 spots bench option. (He's played some 3B previously and needs to get re-aquainted with it). Fedko can help some at 1B, and Fitzgerald will be the veteran utility SS backup if they can’t find someone better on the cheap. If Eeles can show enough glove at SS in ST, he's got a real shot to displace Fitzgerald. The 2nd utility spot is a complete unknown at this point. I could see a $2M veteran late in the offseason as a possible add. JUNE FIRST?: Injury to someone might happen. But regardless, K Pepper will be ready. You don't want a TOP prospect sitting on the bench, but that's really not a worry as everyone needs rest, and Keaschall may see some time in LF, at least against LHP. Eeles still has a shot here as a depth piece. But you MAKE ROOM for your TOP prospects when they are ready. CATCHER: OPENING DAY? Jeffers, though he might start to catch closer to 60-65% of games. Sorry, but I don't have a veteran FA in mind at this time. Too many things to play out. But if Hedges is the best option, might as well bring Vazquez back. But based on his career, I'd probably target Elias Diaz for $3M as the backup. I had my eye on him last offseaeon as a possible Vazquez replacement were Vazquez traded. So I'll go with him. JUNE FIRST?: Jeffers and Diaz with Cardenas performing well at St Paul as the #3 and ready for promotion. ROTATION: This just isn't set the same way as position players might be. The 1st 4 are Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Matthews. SWR, Bradley, and Abel fight for the 5th spot, with the others at St Paul along with Morris providing 3 quality options along with Rojas, Klein, Prielipp, Klein, and CJ Culpepper. And that's leaving out a couple possibles. It remains the strength of a possible competitive team. BULLPEN: Sands is back and you hope for something closer to his 2024 version. Festa is moved here for the sake of his shoulder, much like the Duran move a few years ago, and his vast potential in a limited IP role. Topa is back because he's inexpensive and doesn't totally stink. One of Adams or Ohl is there, but they might roll in and out. Coulombe comes back for 1yr at $3M again as a 1 out or 1 IP middle LH. MacLeod moves to the pen to challenge Funderburk for a 2nd LH role. It's his easiest path to the ML. But Funderburk has been throwing better as of late, has more experience, so I'll give him a spot for now. But his spot is tenous at best. The Twins will grab 2 or 3 inexpensive options on the FA market looking for the next Stewart or Thielbar. They'll grab guys coming off surgery, guys who didn't perform as hoped coming off surgery, or someone like Hatch...who might be brought back...that are failed starters looking to change their career path. I'd also strongly suggest Lewis and his crazy knuckleball could be a perfect example of a prospect who could throw harder for 1 IP, and just KILL with his knuckler on 0-2 and 1-2 counts. Might Raya be destined for the pen, at least my mid-season? Most pens are always in flux. But there's enough talent on hand in the pen, with a couple conversions, and a few inexpensive FA options brought in to build a pen that's at least respectable. If Festa and Sands take off and you find ONE MORE Stewart/Thielbar surprise, you might be too bad if you some decent middle options. And nothing says the rotation depth options couldn't pull a "Santana" or "Liriano" number and go back to the rotation later. I really have little faith in the FO currently to do the right thing and PLAY THE KIDS vs holding on to some deceiving ideas that poor depth is a good thing vs looking towards the future. That's why I'm so torn about the OF, for example. But that's how I see it. And I like it. I admit I broke your FA signings rule with Naylor. But with Larnach eliminated from the roster, my signing of Naylor is still pretty much in line with your criteria. Add in a veteran catcher, Coloumbe back, and a couple of pen fliers, the payroll is still below $120M. -
Should the Twins Bring Back Luis Arraez?
DocBauer replied to Matthew Taylor's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Absolutely nothing but love and respect for Arraez and what he did as a Twin and what he's accomplished in his career. But bringing him back is an absolute no for me. He's a mediocre/OK 1B defensively. He has no real power, and no speed at all. And while he's young enough to maybe rebound on the HITTING side of things, he's on a 2yr downturn of AVG and OB%. 1B is the PRIME place for the Twins to actually add a BAT who can produce. And I'm to yet again mention Josh Naylor as a potential FA addition example of what could be added to deepen and improve the whole lineup. While the team is slowly moving towards defense, speed, and athleticism, they still need power and production. Arraez offers a contact bat with limited pop and no speed, and his previous AVG and OB ability may be waning. -
Can the Twins Compete in 2026? At all? A response.
DocBauer replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I don't disagree that there are some IF's to be answered in order for the Twins to be an 85 type win team and compete for the ALC or a WC. But there is ZERO chance if they just blow up the team and trade Lopez and Ryan. That's just a complete teardown that I don't think they have to do. Buxton is a stud. Keaschall looks a potential one. What if 26yo Lewis can have a healthy year and get his stance/timing figured out? How about a healthy Wallner getting 450 PA and perform like he did in both '23 and '24? Jeffers is one of the top 4-5 offensive catchers in MLB over the past 5 years. Lee is hopefully going to continue his current improvement arc. And are we just going to dismiss TOP prospects like Jenkins, Rodriguez, and K Pepper being so close? Yes, granted, there are some real IF's in there. But my whole point was the team ISN'T devoid of talent, even in a disappointment season. Add a veteran BAT, convert a few arms to the pen, add a couple interesting arms that might be on the rebound and you just might have a solid pen. (Always additional arms to bring up later as well). And your total payroll for 2026 sits around $120M. That's less than this season. ZERO guarantees! But I sure like TRYING rather than NOT trying.

