Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

DocBauer

Old-Timey Member
  • Posts

    12,490
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    60

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Tracker: Picks & Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by DocBauer

  1. Adams, sure. There's some clay to work with there. But Davis has looked awful so far, without hardly a glimmer of hope. And they already have Keirsey on the roster. He goes by the name of Outman now. For the love of the baseball gods, how about ANYONE who offers potential to actually help the team going forward. But Keirsey AND Outman on the same team to close out a losing season? There's just no sense in that.
  2. Langenberg continues to be on a roll! Definitely looks ready for AA next season. Probably not worth it to send him there now. All but AAA almost done with their regular seasons. Good news on Hill. That was scary! I've really fallen asleep on LH Kade Bragg. Selected late in 2023 and only got about 8 IP in 2024 before going to the AFL where he didn't exactly shine. But while his BB this year are a little high at 4.3 per 9, his K rate is 11.4 per 9. And only 41 hits in 60 IP is very impressive. Gotta make sure I keep an eye on him going forward.
  3. If the Twins do decide to tear the whole thing down...and I sure hope they don't...then I also wouldn't want a veteran SS blocking a prospect like Culpepper. But I believe there's still room for veteran depth options and clubhouse leaders. I believe in being aggressive with top prospects, but I don't necessarily believe in pushing them just for the sake of doing so. For example, there's a difference between Funderburk being up soon and even being pushed a little, and moving Tait to the Twins or AAA just because you can. When I use $150M as a floor, I'm just tossing out a number that makes some sense to me. Maybe that number should be closer to $100M? But with equal revenue sharing across the league, I just can't imagine teams not being able to have a payroll above $100M as a floor. The NFL doesn't have a true FLOOR CAP, but all teams must spend 90% of the current CAP over a 3 year period, broken up how they would like. I don't think any NFL teams spend that little over a 3 year period. But it does allow for a team to tank and rebuild. MLB could have a cap floor as I've stated, and whether it was $100M or $125M or $150M, I have a hard time believing an industry that brings in tens of billions of $ couldn't have all teams meet that minimum. However, I could understand provisions that that allow a team to be at a certain % below that floor as they rebuild. Possibly something like 25% below for a single season in a 3yr time frame, 15% below in another season, and 10% below in a 3rd season. But then not again for a 2-3 year period. That allows for teams that suddenly get old, suddenly have a bunch of injured players to move on from, and allows for a sudden loss of expensive players all at once who may sign elsewhere. This offers up a little financial flexibility for teams in re-build mode and doesn't FORCE them to sign guys they don't even want. But again, actually, true revenue sharing across the league should allow all teams to at least be able to meet the minimum. But I'm OK with provisions as I've suggested above for temporary time frames during a re-build.
  4. So while I appreciate this exercise and run through TONS of options in my head daily, there IS a difference between OPENING DAY versus say JUNE 1st. You mentioned May 1st due to control options. I'm going to ignore the Twins playing that game and just guess "readiness". But let's play it as a bit of BOTH maybe? Of course, we're assuming good health. OUTFIELD: OPENING DAY? Wallner, Buxton, Rodriguez, Outman, and Fedko If Rodriguez is healthy, he should be placed in LF DAY ONE and allowed to sink or swim, following the Brewers MO. It's time, and the option clock is ticking. There's also depth to send him down for a re-set it needed. The FO has Fedko playing some 1B right now. That tells me they are interested in having him as a versatile option. They might be finally giving up on Martin, but it's a really tough call just considering how the FO USUALLY operates. Are they FINALLY going to "man up" and just play the best players and quit OBSESSING about mediocre depth? Outman is superfluous with Rodriguez able to backup CF, but he's out of options, they don't want to admit they got nothing in the trade of Stewart. He's got the Keirsey role to begin the season. JUNE FIRST?: Really depends on Rodriguez. But Jenkins may be flashing enough to prove he's ready. There's room for Both considering the team doesn't have a full time DH. Outman is gone. Fedko might be in danger of losing his job to Gonzalez. INFIELD: OPENING DAY? Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, and FA Josh Naylor. And yes, I'm serious here. Naylor gives the team a quality lineup presence, settles 1B, provides some leadership, and fits in to the budget that begins at $90M when Larnach is gone. Clemens will be back as a 4-5 spots bench option. (He's played some 3B previously and needs to get re-aquainted with it). Fedko can help some at 1B, and Fitzgerald will be the veteran utility SS backup if they can’t find someone better on the cheap. If Eeles can show enough glove at SS in ST, he's got a real shot to displace Fitzgerald. The 2nd utility spot is a complete unknown at this point. I could see a $2M veteran late in the offseason as a possible add. JUNE FIRST?: Injury to someone might happen. But regardless, K Pepper will be ready. You don't want a TOP prospect sitting on the bench, but that's really not a worry as everyone needs rest, and Keaschall may see some time in LF, at least against LHP. Eeles still has a shot here as a depth piece. But you MAKE ROOM for your TOP prospects when they are ready. CATCHER: OPENING DAY? Jeffers, though he might start to catch closer to 60-65% of games. Sorry, but I don't have a veteran FA in mind at this time. Too many things to play out. But if Hedges is the best option, might as well bring Vazquez back. But based on his career, I'd probably target Elias Diaz for $3M as the backup. I had my eye on him last offseaeon as a possible Vazquez replacement were Vazquez traded. So I'll go with him. JUNE FIRST?: Jeffers and Diaz with Cardenas performing well at St Paul as the #3 and ready for promotion. ROTATION: This just isn't set the same way as position players might be. The 1st 4 are Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Matthews. SWR, Bradley, and Abel fight for the 5th spot, with the others at St Paul along with Morris providing 3 quality options along with Rojas, Klein, Prielipp, Klein, and CJ Culpepper. And that's leaving out a couple possibles. It remains the strength of a possible competitive team. BULLPEN: Sands is back and you hope for something closer to his 2024 version. Festa is moved here for the sake of his shoulder, much like the Duran move a few years ago, and his vast potential in a limited IP role. Topa is back because he's inexpensive and doesn't totally stink. One of Adams or Ohl is there, but they might roll in and out. Coulombe comes back for 1yr at $3M again as a 1 out or 1 IP middle LH. MacLeod moves to the pen to challenge Funderburk for a 2nd LH role. It's his easiest path to the ML. But Funderburk has been throwing better as of late, has more experience, so I'll give him a spot for now. But his spot is tenous at best. The Twins will grab 2 or 3 inexpensive options on the FA market looking for the next Stewart or Thielbar. They'll grab guys coming off surgery, guys who didn't perform as hoped coming off surgery, or someone like Hatch...who might be brought back...that are failed starters looking to change their career path. I'd also strongly suggest Lewis and his crazy knuckleball could be a perfect example of a prospect who could throw harder for 1 IP, and just KILL with his knuckler on 0-2 and 1-2 counts. Might Raya be destined for the pen, at least my mid-season? Most pens are always in flux. But there's enough talent on hand in the pen, with a couple conversions, and a few inexpensive FA options brought in to build a pen that's at least respectable. If Festa and Sands take off and you find ONE MORE Stewart/Thielbar surprise, you might be too bad if you some decent middle options. And nothing says the rotation depth options couldn't pull a "Santana" or "Liriano" number and go back to the rotation later. I really have little faith in the FO currently to do the right thing and PLAY THE KIDS vs holding on to some deceiving ideas that poor depth is a good thing vs looking towards the future. That's why I'm so torn about the OF, for example. But that's how I see it. And I like it. I admit I broke your FA signings rule with Naylor. But with Larnach eliminated from the roster, my signing of Naylor is still pretty much in line with your criteria. Add in a veteran catcher, Coloumbe back, and a couple of pen fliers, the payroll is still below $120M.
  5. Absolutely nothing but love and respect for Arraez and what he did as a Twin and what he's accomplished in his career. But bringing him back is an absolute no for me. He's a mediocre/OK 1B defensively. He has no real power, and no speed at all. And while he's young enough to maybe rebound on the HITTING side of things, he's on a 2yr downturn of AVG and OB%. 1B is the PRIME place for the Twins to actually add a BAT who can produce. And I'm to yet again mention Josh Naylor as a potential FA addition example of what could be added to deepen and improve the whole lineup. While the team is slowly moving towards defense, speed, and athleticism, they still need power and production. Arraez offers a contact bat with limited pop and no speed, and his previous AVG and OB ability may be waning.
  6. I don't disagree that there are some IF's to be answered in order for the Twins to be an 85 type win team and compete for the ALC or a WC. But there is ZERO chance if they just blow up the team and trade Lopez and Ryan. That's just a complete teardown that I don't think they have to do. Buxton is a stud. Keaschall looks a potential one. What if 26yo Lewis can have a healthy year and get his stance/timing figured out? How about a healthy Wallner getting 450 PA and perform like he did in both '23 and '24? Jeffers is one of the top 4-5 offensive catchers in MLB over the past 5 years. Lee is hopefully going to continue his current improvement arc. And are we just going to dismiss TOP prospects like Jenkins, Rodriguez, and K Pepper being so close? Yes, granted, there are some real IF's in there. But my whole point was the team ISN'T devoid of talent, even in a disappointment season. Add a veteran BAT, convert a few arms to the pen, add a couple interesting arms that might be on the rebound and you just might have a solid pen. (Always additional arms to bring up later as well). And your total payroll for 2026 sits around $120M. That's less than this season. ZERO guarantees! But I sure like TRYING rather than NOT trying.
  7. The 4 day routine was just for arms that have talent, but who don't project to being legitimate ML starters. Adams and Ohl are the poster boys but there were others used in that way as well. It's a way to develop some solid 7-8th man swing guys in the pen that can give you a couple good innings every few days rather than a collection of only 1 IP arms. As far as Prielipp is concerned, he'll be 24yo next season in AAA. That's not exactly old, especially for someone with so little experience. Speculation and rumor has the Twins working with him on a 4th pitch. His pure stuff is dynamite. But he's still learning how to "pitch". A 4th offering couldn't hurt. He's had one official TJ surgery. Depending on what source you read, he's either had a 2nd TJ surgery, OR, they DIDN'T perform a 2nd one, they just added the new mesh brace to his existing previous surgery. From what I've read, that's the more accurate procedure. Still, there is the debate about someone with his potential maybe being a top of the rotation starter at 24-25yo...not old by any standards...versus not wasting bullets in the gun and just turning him to a potentially dominant arm in the pen. I think both sides have merit. I believe the Twins are going to stick with him as a potential SP for now. Duran kept having shoulder issues. Not surgery issues, but fatigue and the such. Some arms are just built for shorter innings more often. There's a couple of similar arms right now in the system that might make a similar move. Festa is one of them.
  8. I believe Jenkins is really close. And when we do see him, even if he does well, I don't believe we're going to see anything close to a finished product to be sure. And I'm fully in favor of following a more Brewers-like philosophy of promoting top prospects quicker, and living with some questionable early production. They've pretty much done that with Keaschall this year. But just MY opinion, as great as Jenkins has been, a couple of minor injuries have robbed him of actual playing time. I think that's part of the reason his power is just begining to translate. I think a month or two at AAA would serve him well to just work on his growing power and ease him a bit better to MLB. June 1st as a 21yo works for me. Rodriguez is an enigma. And maybe he always will be. If we're honest with ourselves, there's as a chance he's a bust as a potential All Star. But as much of an enigma as he's been, he's still been the same productive player at every level. And the talent is undeniable. HEALTH remains the issue. IMO, his actual BATTING AVERAGE is what's in question. There's still concern he might be too passive at the plate, looking for the perfect pitch. Not dissimilar to Sano. (Or even Julien). But a .423 MILB OB% seems to state he does have a sense of the zone. The power is great. The speed and defense are very good. Following the whole Brewers-like approach I'd like to see the Twins follow, I'd put him in OF tomorrow if he had a healthy stretch. And if he struggled enough, send him down, and get him right back up when he looks good again. If someone could promise he'd only HIT in the .240-.240 range, but still keep his OB% around .350+...still WAY lower than his MILB numbers...K around 30-35% of the time but have a BB% of around 18%, with 30+ doubles and be a 20/20 guy with great defense, I wouldn't care about his AVG or K numbers. I'd also like to see Fedko in September. I'm tired of NOT giving fast rising prospects a shot just because they aren't 22-23yo. Interesting that he's playing some 1B for St Paul. Gonzalez, while not as fast, and probably restricted to a corner spot and DH might be the better player in the long run, Fedko has earned a legitimate shot.
  9. Took me a minute to digest this as it got all messed up on my phone, lol. Thank you! I've always stated that despite being on the 40 man, Raya wasn't really expected to contribute until 2026. I still maintain that belief. But the numbers you've shared here definitely show he's on the rise.
  10. There's just way too much to unpack here so it's bulletpoint time. 1] I personally don't feel, generally speaking, that MLB mistreats their players. A rookie minimum salary of around $775K is downright envious. Add in daily meal allowances, treated like a king with quality travel/hotels, and other perks, they have it pretty good. 2] The minimum built in raises per year for a young player seems fair to me as well. They are still young, and many of them are still proving themselves for the long haul. I don't like debates that talk about early mega deals for someone that is a STAR right out of the gate. I've seen too many guys shine early only to then fail, or become hurt. 3] I'm not a fan of the arbitration process. While it's not always the case, it can be destructive in team/player relationships. As the system works TODAY, I'd rather see larger built-in increases for young players with riders such as games played, production rankings, All Star game selections, etc, to more greatly reward those younger players that truly excel. 4] The NFL, and the NBA as well I'd say, though their various clauses and ceilings are crazy...prove the health of a league should be based on a more neutral financial "playing field". In MLB, there are too many owners who just accept FREE MONEY from the current revenue sharing and just pocket it and seem to care very little about the on the field product. I'm still flabbergasted to this day how the MAJOR MARKET teams just seem to idly stand by for this. Though a few teams, the A's as a recent example, have been FORCED to add payroll just to allow this free welfare program to continue. But I remain just as flabbergasted as to the union being so absolutely BLIND about the health of the league and it's lesser players that aren't MEGA paid All Stars. The sport grows with better competition. Better, more exciting competition drives fans to watch, and increases IN HOUSE revenue as well as makes the MLB product even more desirable for TV deals. There ABSOLUTELY SHOULD BE A SALARY CAP in baseball. But that cap could be $300M! But there ABSOLUTELY NEEDS TO BE A CAP FLOOR along with greater overall revenue sharing. Maybe that floor is $150M? I'm just spitballing those numbers as they should be tied to a fair and equitable revenue sharing for all teams. Like in the NFL and NBA, revenue splits will vary sometimes due to TV deals and the such. Should there be some sort of moratorium on delayed future contracts? Maybe. That's not where my concern lies currently. I want a more level, financial playing field where it's up to the TEAMS to actually run their organization better. When you draft and development better, when you manage your roster and cap better, when you run your entire organization better, you can win. Yes, that sounds a lot like the NFL. But that's the model MLB should be following. The GAME is better when you even the odds at the beginning. Your team gets old, or top players get hurt, you guess wrong on some prospects, you might have a downturn, just like in the NFL or NBA. But if you run your team/organization well, you can be back in competitive mode in a couple of years. A] There's still room to reward TOP players and FA and they still get PAID. B] The lower tier players get paid better overall, partially because smaller market teams now HAVE TO, and also have the $ to do so. C] Rookie minimum wage might bump a little. And I have ZERO problems with teams still having 5-6yrs of built in control, but you can ELIMINATE the whole mess that is arbitration with higher yearly bumps, potentially with escalator clauses as previously mentioned, and you might even cap control by AGE. For instance, no more control after age 28 no matter what age the player was when they debuted. EQUITABLE revenue sharing across the board with a CAP and a FLOOR, the elimination of arbitration, and some changes to control and built in salary increases for younger players. While there may be fewer $40M salaried players, the OTHER 80-90% of the league gets paid better. And the game, as a whole, is better due to better overall better competition. Shouldn't THAT be the goal for BOTH the UNION AND the OWNERS? D] I think Royce gets dumped on a bit for some of his comments because he doesn't have much of a filter and is just very open and honest and sort of wears his heart on his sleeve. EX A]: He didn't want to move to 2B mid season caused a lot of pushback. But what he actually said was he was afraid of blowing an important game doing so mid-season. He actually worked a ton at 2B this past offseason and then the FO said don't worry about it. EX B]: His recent comments about arbitration and changing his stance, and how arbitration works are born out of frustration as well as truth. He didn't say anything that wasn't true. HOWEVER, he's also commented/admitted that his swing/approach don't feel right due to his previous injuries and he's still trying to figure out his swing/approach due to 2 knee surgeries and his larger, more muscular build post surgeries. I feel bad for the kid. He's gregarious, optimistic, hard working, talented, and by all accounts a good teammate. But he has endured setback after setback begining with his dual knee surgeries. I'm not going to demonize him if once or twice he's letting some frustration show through. He worked very hard this offseason to improve flexibility to try and avoid additional soft tissue injuries repeating. It didn't work out the way anyone wanted it to, most especially himself. HOPEFULLY, a 2nd offseason of the same will do the trick. I wonder, had he not had the hamstring issue just before the season began...and came back earlier than I thought he should have...what might his season looked like? Would we even be having this current conversation? Yes, he needs to find a way to stay healthy. Yes, he needs to get some of his confidence back, IMO. But he also needs to find a stance and approach that WORKS for him on a consistent basis. Where can he find the balance and timing place for his swing to see the pitch and make good contact with a twice repaired leg and increased muscle mass? More hard work, and better health should allow the still only 26yo to still be very good, even if he doesn't achieve true greatness at this point. But he's not wrong about arbitration being a mess. But the issue is FAR greater than just arbitration. It's about billionaire owners actually wanting to preserve and grow their investment/team and the millionaire players wanting the same, as well as looking out for that other 80-90% that they are supposed to be representing. The stubbornness and blindness of BOTH parties is almost beyond comprehension to me!
  11. Not a good day on the farm overall to be sure. I'm very intrigued about Fedko playing some 1B. Increases roster flexibility, if nothing else, in a potential shot with the Twins. Gonzalez just keeps on hitting! The kid gloves appear to be off Raya and he might still match or exceed his IP in 2024. But I do find it interesting he's been used a lot out of the pen lately. I'd love to see a split in his numbers from the 1st to the 2nd half because it has appeared he's been better the 2nd half. Some quality hitting at AA was nice to see. K-Pepper looked to be in a slump, or tiring. Nice rebound. Still betting he gets a couple weeks at AAA as their season goes a little longer, and he probably begins 2026 there anyway. Not sure what to think about Alejandro Hidalgo at this point. He's either looked really solid or just awful. And it can vary game to game. But he's only 22yo...and will be to begin 2026...and is coming off surgery. Hits and BB are too high, but he's also flashed K ability. He'll be at AA to begin next season, and is too young, probably, to move to the pen just yet. But I do wonder if that's where he might end up. Time to cross fingers on Hill. He was probably going to see his season end soon anyway, but an injury is not the way anyone would like to see it come to a close. Here's hoping it's just a mild strain and nothing worse!
  12. So they have 2 choices. Well maybe a 3rd option as well, but we'll get to that in a minute. DON'T TRADE: I already made a long response piece to an OP similar to this on the FORUMS page, so I'm not going to go in to great detail here. Look, maybe I'm just stubborn, or too much of an optimist, but I just don't see a reason to tear this whole thing down. Especially when Lopez and Ryan are still on the right side of 30yo and absolutely top of the rotation arms. I still see a viable lineup...though it needs some guys to figure stuff out...with Buxton, Wallner, Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, and Jeffers. I see Jenkins, Rodriguez, and K Culpepper all debuting at some point in 2026. And there's about 6 other OF between AAA/AA that could possibly debut/contribute begining next season I see a payroll of $90M with Larnach moved due to the young OF prospects, and because I just don't see the Twins paying him $5M. They don't have to go on an expensive shopping spree to add some useful players to the club. Say Naylor at 1B for a solid, veteran bat. Maybe around $14-15M? How about a veteran backstop to Jeffers for around $3M? Then 2 or 3 fliers for the pen that are rebounding, or haven't quite put it all together yet but might with the Twins. Maybe Coulombe is back as one of those options? Point is, you're not going to break the bank. You're looking for the next Stewart, or Thielbar, etc. You're talking about $6-10M max there. You're talking $28M max and keeping DH open as a rotating spot. (Unless they want to ante up extra $ for one). That puts the payroll UNDER this year's number by $10+M. And you've eliminated all that bad debt you accumulated previously. (Or most of it, depending on how they divide up their new, instant cash flow). You've got a TON of arms to sort through for depth as well as a 2 or 3 going to the pen. I know a prospect is a prospect until they prove themselves. But Lopez and Ryan were also just prospects at one time. DO TRADE: This one is pretty simple. Either ownership just wants to line their pockets in 2026 and further alienate their fan base...or...they really question if the team can win over 80 games with the talent/prospects on hand, and are scared about ML baseball in 2027 and don't want to "waste" $ as a result and decide to add MORE prospects/young talent for potential baseball in 2027 and beyond. If they really question the talent on hand, and their prospects debuting and taking "too much" time to settle in, and really and truly are concerned about 2027, then maybe they should just trade one or both of Lopez and Ryan and tear the whole damn thing down. It's not what I would do, or want. And it's NOT what Eric says he wants either. But if they are really lacking in faith for immediate returns on their talent for next season and worried about 2027, then again, I can see the sense in it, even if I hate the idea. OPTION THREE: I don't see this happening. But what about NOT trading either of them, doing the buying I mentioned previously, give your fan base a reason to still want to come to the park...and THEN tear it down at the deadline if things aren't going well. Both Lopez and Ryan would still offer about 1 1/2 years of control and should still bring back a solid return. Again, I'm stubborn, and a bit too much of an optimist at times. But top end pitching is the hardest thing to develop. And I see too much potential in the players/prospects to disregard a decent lineup. If they can assemble just a decent/solid pen they have a chance to still be a decent team in 2026.
  13. I DO think they look at Prielipp as a SP option. He's going to be 25yo in February and he needs better command and maybe a 4th pitch to truly DOMINATE ML SP. EXPERIENCE WISE, Prielipp is a 21-22yo kid still learning how to pitch. Wouldn't you give him a couple of months to see if he could BE that kind of pitcher?
  14. Im going to repeat a few things I stated in the previous thread with a few alterations. Removing his rather brief 2022 debut, Wallner's Quad Slash line for a healthy 2023 and 2024 are as follows: .254/ .371/ .515/ .885 with an OPS+ of 144. That means he was ABOVE AVERAGE in EVERY category, including BATTING AVERAGE, and was 44% BETTER as an all around batter than the rest of the league. 44% better overall than the rest of the league. INCLUDING his brief 2022 debut and a rough 2025...with an OPS STILL ABOVE .800...possibly due to his injury, but who knows for certain, his CAREER Quad Slash line is: .238/ .350/ .501/ .850 with an OPS+ of 133. That means over 4yrs his BATTING AVERAGE has been slightly less than the rest of the league. But it also means for his career he's been 33% better than average as a productive batter than the rest of the league. 33% better overall than the rest of the league. Decades ago, hitters were judged on 3 things, AVG, HR, and RBI. Now, those aren't EMPTY stats. They still have relevance. BUT, teams got smarter over time and realized a batter with a high AVG, but didn't have power and didn't drive in runs, had less value than originally perceived. They also realized guys with big power who couldn't get OB, or drive in many runs, and sometimes had a poor AVERAGE, had less value than originally perceived. It's really not that hard if you drop old perceived values/walls and just understand the greater perspective that ALL TEAMS...not just the Twins...discovered over time with deeper research. Average, HR, and RBI by themselves DON'T paint an accurate picture! Remember, over the years, when you saw various hitters with 25 HR but only 60-ish RBI and you wondered how that could be? It's because nobody was OB for them to knock in! OR, they couldn't HIT for a damn, only had power, so that was the only time they knocked guys in! It's actually MATH over DECADES of research by ALL TEAMS. OB% was a measurement that simply went ignored for too long. And they finally figured out the best way to measure a batter wasn't to use any SINGLE statistic, but to combine them ALL to figure out who was ACTUALLY a good OVERALL hitter. That's why the Quad Slash line exists today. OPS + is a way to quantify how below or above a hitter is compared to the rest of the league, or by each position. EXAMPLE: A catcher only bats .250, and gets OB about 32% of the time. He strokes enough Doubles and HR to have a SLG% of around .425. His OPS would then be around. His OPS would be around .740, which would make him ABOVE average considering the LEAGUE AVERAGE usually hovers around .700, give or take about 10-15 points. Right there you'd have a hell of an offensive catcher! Again, it's not mysticism or magic. It's JUST MATH measuring a players overall offensive ability! NOBODY is trying hoodoo-voodo to convince you of some strange new world of baseball. It's simply a newer, more complete and accurate picture of hiw to measure the performance and potential a player/batter has. BACK to Wallner again: He's NOT slow. In regard to SPRINT SPEED, he's one of the faster Twin players. But he's also not QUICK. That means his READS have to be better in order to be a quality defensive OF. Some previously couldn't watch the Twins for a while. Some maybe have refused to. I'm not in a blackout area, and I've watched a TON of games over the past few years. And I can tell with honest heart that he really has improved his tracking skills over the past couple of seasons. I can also honestly tell you that his defense has slipped in 2025. And I don't know if that is physical, or him taking offensive frustrations out in to the field. He has a 95mph CANNON for an arm that is also accurate. So good is his arm that teams don't even try to run on him any longer. So I automatically dismiss any comment about his arm. Wallner will ALWAYS K more than a lot of people want to see, even he's lowered that number this year. But Wallner will also always have a solid OB% due to BB and some hit batsmen. (Witness a career .350 OB%). He's also never going to HIT to a .280-ish AVG. (.250 is about AVERAGE these days). IMO...other than some fan bizarre perception he should HIT at a .270 AVG and have a K% of 20%..MY ISSUE is his usage and FO perception. Most sluggers will run hot and cold. But when he had a poor 2024 ST, and then a poor start to 2024, the FO sent him down to AAA. But they did so after about 26 AB. What does 26 AB tell you about anyone? Especially for a player coming off a previously good season before? But FINE, they wanted to give him a brief re-set. But then he RAKED. And they still kept him down? Why? Because they didn't KNOW who he was? And when they FINALLY called him back up, what did he do? He produced ANOTHER .800plus season. To begin 2025, Rocco decided they should put him at LEADOFF as he was one of the teams best hitters. There was SOME logic to that due to his power and OB ability and being one of the best batters on the team. But I never really liked that plan. He and Buxton and Lewis should have been a 3-4-5 option with Castro and Correa as a 1-2. But Wallner was pretty good there initially and then got hurt. And since he's been back, his defense has slumped somewhat, and he hasn't been the BATTER that he was in 2023-24. But how much of that is post injury "getting right", or coaching, or Wallner's own head? Do anti-Wallner haters realize he's STILL got the highest OPS on the team behind Buxton? And sorry, I'm dismissing Keaschall in this point of the conversation for reasons that should be obvious. You want to build back Wallner's confidence? Then stop throwing him down in the lower third of the lineup. Should Wallner be a part of the immediate Twins future? ABSOLUTELY. He's almost as talented of a potential producer as Lewis. You can't ignore an injury season on a bad team team where he's still better than almost anyone else. Again, MATH, previous numbers, potential to repeat high numbers, nobody is going to take away your Fandom. Is the team better with Uber prospect Rodriguez getting healthy for once and grabbing a spot and fellow Uber prospect Jenkins joining him and making Wallner a mostly full time DH and part time OF? Absolutely! That would be OUTSTANDING and what most of us have been dreaming of. But there is no guarantee it WILL happen. **BTW, @LA VIkes Fanhas produced some interesting numbers lately showing Wallner is trending towards not being negative towards LHP. That's a really good thing! And I could ramble on forever and never get through the ingrained minds/opinions of some posters. And I'm dismissing the current coaching staff or the FO and ANY kind of direction they might have. But Wallner is a potentially HUGE component of the lineup over the next few years. The really good numbers are there to look at.
  15. Wallner is not slow. He's actually one if the fastest players on the team in regard to sprint speed. But he's a very large person and it takes time to get up and moving. Therefore, he's fast, but isn't necessarily "quick". That means he's never going to steal a ton of bases, and must get solid reads in the OF to be effective. THE BAD: He's never going to be quick. He's never going to be a great defender. But he's previously been better than this season. He may be taking some of his frustration to the field with him. He's always going to K more than people want. THE GOOD: His arm is in the 90+% in MLB for strength/speed and accuracy. Teams don't even try to run on him any longer. His power is tremendous. His QUAD SLASH for his CAREER....meaning briefly in 2022, and including THIS down season, PLUS 2023'-'24...sits at: .238/ .350/ .501/ .823 Those are excellent numbers! That's an approximately leage average HIT tool, and ABOVE league average OB%, SLG %, and OPS%. His OPS PLUS is 133! That means as a hitter he's 33% BETTER than average. He can't control where he gets put in the lineup or how many runners from a poor producing lineup are on base in front of him. But by all means, if you haven't learned that there is more to measuring ballplayers besides their BATTING AVERAGES, then I suppose Wallner will look bad to you. But considering the LEAGUE WIDE AVERAGE batting average is below .250, I guess baseball is just filled with really bad players everywhere. Ideally, Rodriguez and Jenkins will both be fine ML players and take over the corner spots, and soon. That's not only good for the lineup, but it does put better defense on the field. It would allow Wallner the ability to DH more often, and be a backup corner OF. But any notion Wallner has been a bad player, and that he hasn't still been one of the better bats on the Twins this season, or that he isn't/can't be very important at his 2023-24 levels going forward is just not accurate.
  16. A pair of great performances from Armstrong and Morris. Morris helps lead what should be a great St Paul staff. But is he the #8, #9 depth piece? Does he push himself to be in consideration for the #5-#6 spot? He's got the potential. Guess we'll see depending on what theownership/FO do. Could we have asked for a better start to Tait's and Jimenez's Twins careers? Rosario leading the league in Runs, HR, BB, and now probably RBI? And to think a few weeks ago I asked if I was the only one who still saw him as a prospect and some responded no. He's starting to look more like a 40 man add all the time. Regarding Winokur? He's still high on my prospect list. I'm just not worried about his recent slump. He started a little slow and might be finishing a little slow. But he's done some really good stuff in between and is still only 20yo at A+. I think whether he starts 2026 at AA vs CR again really just depends on offseason work/improvement and ST. But the talent is undeniable. Begining at A+ as a 21yo next season doesn't mean his shine dims. It just means a little more time to work on the contact portion of his game. From what little I've seen of him at SS...not much to be sure...he's surprisingly nimble for the position and has a tremendous arm. But if 3B and CF really are his future positions, then I agree he should focus on those 2 spots.
  17. Just to be clear, Fedko hasn't been a great hitter, but he's OK. He's better at avoiding K's and taking BB. The lack of a HIT tool was a reference toward Cardenas. For instance, he hit .257 at Wichita but is only hitting .217 with St Paul. Your idea of sending him to the AFL might be a good one.
  18. Only copying your post due to the fact it mentioned Phillips and the DT spot. I was really surprised to see Phillips go, and quite sad. He's been a really good performer, captain, leader, and great influence in every community he's been a part of. Including here in his home town of Omaha. NEVER saw that move coming! But the more I've thought and reflected on it, kinda makes some sense. They get another pick, help with the CAP to some degree, and as good as Phillips has been, he's just probably not as good as Allen or Hargrave. I also doubt any of the young DL turn out to be Pro Bowl type performers. But I was so impressed with Redmond last preseason and thought they might have gotten a steal. Looks like they might have. Hard to say how good LDR and Ingram-Dawkins will turn out, but damn if it doesn't look like they got a couple of potential steals there as well. A lot of talent and EFFORT on the field with those two. When they brought Elijah Williams in for a tryout, I did as much research as I could. And when I saw his numbers at Morgan State, and his test numbers at the small school HBCU Legacy Bowl, I couldn't figure out why he wasn't listed as a possible late round or priority UDFA option. He's still got a lot to prove coming from such a small program, but he really flashed in all 3 preseason games. I have to believe he did as well in camp, and the various team scrimmages. It's really hard to believe that Taimani...who made the initial roster last season before becoming injured...couldn't land a spot despite quality play this preseason. Just a lot of young talent to work with behind the veterans. I'm really going to miss Phillips, but I'm also very encouraged by the young kids and their potential.
  19. Just tossing out a couple of thoughts now that the roster and PS are MOSTLY set. Hard not to love having Thielen back. If he's got enough gas in the tank for 2yrs left, it's a really nice add. But I don't like the 2027 4th rounder to make it happen. Really unfortunate that Howell didn't work out. But I feel really comfortable about Wentz as a veteran #2. Doesn't it just feel like another CB is coming on board still? The PS is pretty close to what I thought and hoped. But a couple guys I thought would be there are on the current roster, or on the temporary IL list. Very happy to see Taimani back. He deserved to be on the 53 man. Just crazy we are so deep there that there wasn't room. Equally happy to have Murphy back. Thought for sure someone would snag him. What am I missing that he didn't make the 53 man? Also nice to see Vaughn kept at CB. Terribly inconsistent in the preseason. Flash one play and then slip or break wrong on the next. But there's some real potential there. And interesting to see Moreau back at CB. Initially, I thought they'd bring him back as a 5th-6th CB option. Obviously, the primary roster is going to change a bit over the next few weeks. Addison will be back, Ham will be back, and so will rookie UDFA Batty. So the roster and PS are going to be in some state of flux still. Any initial thoughts one way or another?
  20. I hope you're right. Some re-worked deals are a possibility. Thankfully, we have some of the best CAP thinkers in the league. Having, potentially, 6 picks in the 1st 4 rounds doesn't hurt for the future either.
  21. A strange dichotomy for sure. You don't want the Twins to lose...but...you kinda don't mind if they lose and keep up their opportunity for a top 5 pick while at the same time wanting to see the younger players perform well.
  22. Nice start for Rojas. He's young, has limited IP, and has probably been pushed a little hard to be at AAA at this point. I don't believe he'll be ready to help until mid '26, but he's intriguing for sure. MacLeod had a nice relief apparance as well. The Lefty was doing well at AA before his promotion. He's been struggling since. I'm not saying he can't still be a potential ML SP, and I never like moving guys too soon, but as a prospect he's got to be behind Prielipp, Rojas, and Hill (who's further down the line). He might be a potential pen conversion option. I'm also mixed on Rosario a bit, even though I've been championing him for a while. I think recency bias is in play somewhat with an injury affected 2024 and his bad April this season. I see a passable corner OF who might end up as a possible platoon bat. Time will tell. And while I don't like risking losing him to someone who might take a shot...A's, Dirty Sox, etc...I'm 50/50 on protecting him. Would he even stick? So few position players are selected in the rule 5, and even fewer stick. Nice start for Oliveras at CR. That staff could be AMAZING in 2026! Ross with another solid start as well. And my "prospect arm crush" Doktorczyk did a nice job out of the pen. I really think he's someone to keep an eye on for 2026. Solid day on the farm!
  23. I've been pretty much beaten to the punch on this, but there are 40 man considerations involved here, not just who we'd like to see, oe who deserves a shot. And yes, I'm fully aware there are a few guys who could easily be removed from said 40 man roster. For instance, no matter how much I want to see Eeles up, he doesn't have to be protected, so he might have to wait until ST next year. Currently, Fitzgerald is the only backup at SS, so you probably don't send him down or remove him. But unless the Twins still hold out some sort of hope that Miranda can be fixed, he can't even hit at the AAA level. That's an available 40 man spot for Fedko. They seem to want to give Julien every opportunity to succeed. Whether you agree with that or not, removing him might send him packing. So it's also up to what the coaches and FO really think about the future of some of these guys, and whether or not they are ready to "give up" on them. Fedko remains my #1 choice as there is a very clear path available for him to be the 4th OF next season. And again, while I think he might need a little more time to work on his HIT tool, I can easily see Cardenas getting a shot at catcher with Gasper going down.
  24. Amen! I understand what defensive metrics say. But I also know why my eyes tell me. Wallner seemed smoother defensively last year. Maybe he's taking frustration out to the field with him? But agree he's probably still best as a DH and part time OF. Nice shout out to @LA VIkes Fanfor listing the improvement by Wallner against LHP. I've heard those numbers before but don't recall seeing someone posted. Just MY opinion, but I was really frustrated when Wallner was sent down early in 2024 after something like 26 AB. But fine. But he was.keot down WAY too long. He's going to be streaky. But don't they know their own player? This season, even when struggling, has maintained the 2nd best OPS on the team but he's been regulated to the lower portion of the lineup instead of worse hitters. Very frustrating. I have no problem with Wallner in RF full time, with Buxton in CF, and a better glove in LF. Ultimately, it would be AWESOME to have Rodriguez and Jenkins in the corners and let Wallner be that DH/part-time OF. But Wallner's bat is for real. But yes, it would be nice if he starts hitting like 2023-'24 soon and the Twins get more base runners on in front of him.
  25. And this is why I really hate the September additions only being TWO players. Teams who have nothing to play for should have the opportunity to bring up more than that. (All teams treated equally for sure). Doesn't mean you have to allow for 40 again. But how does the Twins bringing up another handful of prospects for auditions in Septemeber affect the integrity of the game. They could be worse than they are now? Lol I wouldn't mind Sabato getting a shot. The fact that he's cooled down in a hitters league after his promotion concerns me some. But his future is probably organizational filler if he isn't ready to contribute pretty soon. A month looksee would be nice. Eels is already a fan favorite! His numbers...primarily SLG%...just arent what they were last season. Possibly a result of his surgery recovery? (Not that he ever had a LOT of power). But he's been building up after a slow 1st month. I think most of us would be behind him getting a shot. Fedko might not THIS powerful or THIS fast, but he doesn't have to be to be a quality RH 4th OF who can play both corner spots and help a little in CF as needed. He's always done a great job of maintaining a quality OB%, so there's recognition to go along with pop and speed. And not quite yet 25yo is NOT old. GG is probably the better long term option...with less speed...but Fedko appears ready for an audition NOW. I sure hope he gets one. Cardenas' OPS at St Paul has been enhanced by a sudden power burst. A burst I fear comes from the league/park and not a true power breakout. But he's always had a good OB%...career .380...indicating some zone control and contact ability. (His K/BB splits are very good). And he's got a good arm and a solid reputation behind the plate. I just fear the HIT tool might be a few months or half a season away. But he's got some very good qualities, has been a bit of a hot streaks, and a September looksee might decide, at the least, as to whether he could be the #3 guy in 2026 or not. It would require a little roster shuffling to get 3 or all 4 up, but Fedko and Eeles in particular, IMO, should be getting a shot.
×
×
  • Create New...