DocBauer

For the overall player he is, for the presence he is, for the leader and gamer he is, I'd really like Correa back. And I'm willing to spend a ton to keep him, if I'm the Twins. I was thinking $35M per on a 8 or 9yr deal with an opt out after 3yrs. This gives the Twins a sense of security for those first 3yrs and offers Correa the option for something bigger and longer when he's still only 30yo, plus the security of just sticking with his deal if the market doesn't offer said bigger or longer offer. We're talking a guaranteed $280-$315! And it's up to the Twins to decide if they want to front load a bit more for even greater payroll flexibility 6-7-8 years from now. But are we really talking about $40M per year for 8-9-10yrs?? That's $320M minimum up to $360-$400M! I just don't know how I can justify a guaranteed deal for something like that. IMO, the target is 8-9yrs and a ceiling of around $315M. Remember, he's already gotten 1yr and $35M from the Twins, so it's not like we're trying to short change him. I want him, but, at some point, suggested or reported numbers being tossed out there just don't make sense.

Just 29 more to go gang! Come on! LOL!

Does my "like" count? LOL!

I like the new script, other than the fact I just bought a Twins pennant for my family room on my 1st trip to Target Field in August that suddenly feels dated. (Sigh). The script looks perfect to me and I don't see what others do. The white home uniforms are EXCELLENT. They are reminiscent of the old school whites worn until the mid 80's but much better and updated. I don't mind the blue top. It's fine. But it's missing something. And I'm not sure what. Are the sleeves that bare? Or do we yet get to see some patches? And does the whole jersey look better with the back on display, which we can't see? Something like a Mini and Paul patch and a white outline of the number on the back of the jersey might "complete" the look.

I have a couple thoughts. https://www.uncommongoods.com/ They offer cups, glasses, tumblers and various other interesting baseball gift options at various price points. Some can be customized. Some of the best are glasses and tumblers with a "blueprint" of team ballparks. And one of the traditions that I have between my dad and myself is to order a hat for each of us from a Twins milb team. Last year it was the Saints. And while we now each have hats from teams no longer affiliated with the Twins, it's a really nice gift for today as well as past remembrance.

$60M to spend, up to $80 if Urshela is moved in non-tender or trade, and if Kepler is moved since it just might be time. Really depends on how major the FO approach is going to be. The fact that "reports" about a Correa offer include trying to resolve things as early as possible is good in how all of this offseason works out is good news. But for now, I'm only addressing the OF situation. There's good reasons/scenarios to move Kepler. There's also reasons/scenarios to keep Max. While I have fingers crossed in regard to Kirilloff being ready and good to go, or nearly ready, to resume his career and fulfill all his potential, I am not writing his name in ink for the opening day roster anywhere. I have a lot of hope/faith we will get to see Larnach start to bloom in 2023. I'm uncertain how to fully project Wallner, but I think he's a keeper. But I could also see a roster construction where he's at AAA to begin 2023 to work on defense and the little things. And then we have the nice super-utility Gordon. ALL LH! The team has been short a quality RH OF for a few years now. It's been a pretty major need that has been left empty. It's a pretty major need that's been pushed too often aside by the FO as well as debates about other positions. Kepler, healthy, is a nice ballplayer. Excellent RF defense, solid CF defense when slid there, decent OB%, runs the bases well, etc. Not a horrible hitter, and pretty good power. Again, with so much youth and talent available, but a few arguments about roster construction, there are reasons to both keep him as well as move him. But regardless, a legitimate, RH bat is needed in ANY roster scenario. And the recently re-signed Garlick, IMO, is around as a fall back, much like Cave was last year. Haniger, IMO, is the #1 target. I hate that he is an injury concern. But he's a quality hitter with power and past production when healthy. (He's even covered CF here and there). I believe he's 32yo in 2023, not old, not young. He does have some injury concerns. He only earned $7.75M in 2022. He's basically been under paid by production when healthy. In my blueprint, I had him with a bump to $10M per on a 2yr deal. With a dearth of RH OF anywhere close to the ML level...other than maybe Martin...a 3rd year could be argued. But I'm not sure I buy projections of $12-15M due to age and injuries. If he's affordable, he's my best fit for the Twins. I have interest in the over paid Wil Myers, same age, less production, better health, less defense I believe. Don't laugh, but I've contemplated Andrew McCutchen on a 1yr as a 3rd option. While long in the tooth for a ML player, and no longer the player he once was, he wasn't bad in 2022, following a pretty nice 2021. Might he still have solid value/production hitting primarily against LH pitching? I don't think I'm crazy in my thinking. There is a TON to see unfold over the next few months. And trying to predict what is going to happen is like picking a lotto ticket winner. But unless we see some major surprises taking place, one thing that just can't be ignored is a legitimate to very good RH OF. Haniger has some risk, but he's also the perfect choice to bring on board.

Unreal expectations of hope left unfulfilled bears a lot of weight on Sano and his perception, IMO. Injuries did him no favors. I don't know that his being a large human being played in to those injuries, or slower recovery, or had no affect. But does it matter? Hopes and expectations don't play well with injuries that derail what might have been. (Goodness knows any Minnesota sports fan understands that). I often wonder if Sano's hot streaks weren't quite as blazing, and his cold streaks weren't quite as frigid...if there was just a little more consistency instead of high peaks and valleys graph...would we have a different perception of his Twins career?

No. If he was RH and available for around $9-10M I'd seriously consider it despite the fact he simply can't hit. The power is there, the defense is there, and he usually holds an acceptable OB%. But, sorry, I'm in favor of moving Kepler to free up $ for other additions, and for allowing Larnach, Wallner, and Kirilloff room to play/develop/produce. I mean, we need to add someone better than Garlick at some point to balance the OF, but that's not Gallo. If Kepler is moved, and all the other needs are addressed, I could see a "swing" back to adding a LH power bat if he's there. But adding another LH OF, even as a potential replacement for a traded Kepler, is waaaay down on my list. And really, why not just keep Kepler at that point?

Legumina wasn't in my top 4, that's for sure. But I understand holding on to the potential they feel he has, pure arm talent. Not sure he would have been selected, but that's just my opinion. Personally, I think the idea of the Twins system suddenly being "down" is a combination of trades, graduations and injuries. There's still a lot to like, overall, while granting there is a bit of a gap from some very good, young talent on the 40 man already, as well as some AAA names, and then a dip down to A and rookie level ball. And I think there's a few very interesting names not protected that might intrigue a team to draft them. But you have to remember there are 29 other teams with non-protected players also available. So for the Twins to have 5 picked might be high. I sure hope you're wrong as I'd certainly like to keep some of the guys not protected. I guess if there are, it would, in a bizarre way, be a compliment to the 40 man talent and the depth of the system. Let's just hope it's only 2 or 3 and they don't all stick and are returned back.

We always have to remember that on average, a team will only see 2-3 players selected. And even then, very often some just aren't ready and will be offered back. And very few "lost" players turn out to be difference makers. Doesn't mean they can't turn out to be solid ballplayers, just not often anything approaching stardom. I do think this went about according to expectation, primarily Julien, Canterino, and Headrick. Legumina was a bit if a surprise as I thought it might come down to him, Laweryson or Sisk. When in doubt, always keep arms you like. Legumina is a bit of a flier, but IIRC, he's got more pure stuff than Laweryson, and is still finding his way a bit after TJ. I am a somewhat surprised by not protecting Sisk. I thought he should have been brought up late in 2022 for a looksee. I'm betting he's gone. I don't see Williams or Isola being selected. They catch but have mostly played 1B. Some of that is get a number of different guys time behind the plate while keeping their bats in the lineup. But I'm not sure either is ready for any sort of regular duty at this time and doubt they'd be stashed on a roster. The two guys I'd really hate to see go would be Helman and Severino. Helman is not a top prospect by any means, but he can fill a role with an OK bat, some power and good speed. And he can be plugged in almost anywhere in the field as a last bench player. He ABSOLUTELY should have been with the Twins late in 2022 when the OF was in disarray and short of RH bats. Cave and Contreras were marched out daily instead. And Severino finally began to flash last year. I don't think he's ready, but he's talented enough to be a stash for a rebuilding team. While not top prospects, the "depleted" system still has some intriguing guys who will get selected. Really hoping Helman and Severino are not, or are offered back.

Haniger interests me a lot. He's not young at 32yo, but not old either. The bat and power are solid. He could be a fine starter to an excellent RH role player with the likes of Larnach, Wallner, and AK. There is some risk due to past injuries. He made $7.75M in 2022 and I had him in my blueprint for $10M per and maybe 2yrs. I mean, Martin is the only potential RH OF even close to the parent club right now. I predicted a raise of a couple $M over his 2022 salary due to inflation and a need to just "get it done". Maybe I'm over pricing him? Don't want a full time DH unless he's pretty special. I want the best, deepest and most balanced roster I can get and rotate DH. Martinez is close to being that "special" DH. Just not fully convinced at 35yo and a decrease in HR power that he had a lot left. Drury would be a nice fit for a solid bat and lineup versatility. But do we trust his breakout? I'm going to say no unless he comes in late and cheap.

Nick, really appreciate the update, especially with a little more detail and background on the coaching and administrative changes. Couple points: 1] I understand the use of a projected payroll of $140M based on last year. We have to start somewhere, right? But I recall last year at this time, coming off a poor 2021, when some projected cost cutting and a payroll of $100-120M. Instead, the Twins and the FO did what they've largely done thus far, and keep payroll about ML average, usually placing somewhere around 14th to 16th. MLB, like most sports and entertainment industries, tends to follow a different path, often, than "normal" economic factors. I fully expect MLB to see a solid 5% raise in salaries across the board. I think that's a fair and even trend across sports in general. (The 2020 covid year was a weird and difficult outlier across sports-given). If we follow precedence, said increase should put the Twins at around $147M. 2] The total amount of available spending capital is so damn hard to predict, not just because of any obscure Correa factor, but also due to Kepler and Urshela. There are a ton of reasons to keep both. A healthy Kepler is a good player and excellent defender who is "cheap" considering total value. And while I have great faith in Larnach, and Wallner, one may or may not be quite ready and AK remains a very hopeful question mark, I personally am not "counting" on him. And while the Twins, yet again, very much need a RH OF, there's real value in keeping a healthy Kepler as more of a "sure thing", especially with an OF addition. Everything I just said about Kepler pretty much applies to Urshela. He's a good teammate and a very solid player with real value. And I'd like to keep him in various, potential roster configurations. The problem is, combined, they offer another $18M in spending capital to augment the roster if the Twins sign Correa...or one of the other top SS...and make a serious move for Rodon...my #1 or #2 target...or maybe a Bassett SP option. Is signing Correa, or one of the other top SS to a somewhat lesser deal, AND signing Rodon a fantasy? Maybe it is. But this FO is placed in an enviable and opportunistic situation that we haven't seen before! So however it works out, and whatever change of direction might take place, it may simply prove necessary to move either or both of Kepler and Urshela in order to flesh out the rest of the roster. The absolute WORST THING they could do at this point is just sit back and wait and be "patient" and just wait for things to fall in their lap. It's not going to happen. And then they've BLOWN all this opportunity to re-tool a team that could be really good and end up in a "settle" and hope situation. 3] I have to somewhat disagree with the "no trouble" clearing additional roster spot comment. And I've been saying this for a while now. While SS is the only major hole projected towards 2023, there are definite needs. Needs are a RH bat, another catcher, probably one more quality BP arm, and SS. And there remains the arguable "one more SP as good as Gray and Mahle or better" scenario. That's at least 4 spots, very possibly 5, and maybe 6 if we can bring on yet another quality BP arm. And we're at 37 on the roster right now. And then we still need to protect at least a handful of milb players. Pagan should be moved for ANYTHING if someone will bite. Otherwise, dump him immediately. We NEED better than Garlick, though I'd love to have him back on a milb deal, maybe a split deal like Cave had. I just don't see protecting Stashak, coming off injury. Would be nice to have him back, but don't see anyone nabbing him, and there are other arms in the system getting ready. No way we protect Contreras, though again, I'd sure like him back at AAA. 37-4 is 33 on the 40 man. Room enough to add 4-6 additions, C, OF/RH bat, SS, RP, additional P, whether SP or RP or both. But what about protecting prospects? And I know once you "set" your 40 man you can then cut someone later after the rule 5 and hope they sneak through, in order to add someone else. And I know that typically, most teams only lose 2-3 players in the rule 5. But is it smart to risk Enlow, Sands, and MAYBE Megill? I'm OK risking Megill despite his stuff and "possibly" harnessing it. Love to have him at AAA, but his stuff, though good, hasn't proven consistent enough to warrant a spot push come to shove. Sands has equally good stuff, has been a top 20 prospect, has flashed a little, but not proven enough yet. But we dump him? He could be another Jax, if not better, and provides depth. Does a good, solid milb career until 2022 warrant risking his potential loss? Maybe so. Enlow was a high pick and signed for over value who didn't flash until late in 2019 and the early part of 2021 before surgery. Still only 23yo and protected thus far, do you risk someone snapping him up for future protection? I'm NOT saying you are wrong to not protect arms like Sands and Enlow in particular, Megill as a "maybe", I'm just saying NOT protecting a couple arms like these could bite in a year or so. Same with Canterino, very similar situation to Enlow. I just can't believe anyone would nab Canterino coming off surgery, but I never saw the Orioles grabbing and keeping Tyler Wells either. Again, you're not wrong about "easy" cuts, but I'm not sure there won't be some hard decisions of who to protect and who not to either. Despite recent trades and movement upward ML promotions, and some potentially bad draft selections. the Twins aren't devoid of talent. And like everyone else, the lost 2020 season doesn't affect rule 5 status. And while rule 5 won't be some free for all situation, there are more than a few solid prospects to try and protect, without room for all, that I don't think "easy" not protecting is necessarily all that easy.

Roger, it's my understanding that those buyouts are part of 2022 business, so that $4.5M actually goes toward last season and not next.

The Twins "approach" to how to us a bullpen is dead on; no "closer only" mentality and having a fireman or fireman for high leverage situations. It's been the results that have been the issue at times due to the talent on hand, or lack thereof. With everyone on board right now, they are very close to having the 8 plus deep they need to make it work the right way. Now, I want the best depth and best up front "answers" I can have vs hopes, so I think one more really good arm is needed. Two would be just awesome. But no more sitting back and just seeing what "value" falls in your lap at the end of the winter. That's fine for a guy or two here and there, but no way to build and maintain a quality pen.

I'm only interested in a milb deal, or a cheap ML deal with incentives. Maybe $1-1.5M with incentives? You can't predict injuries, but we need at least ONE good arm for the pen that is experienced and we feel will be reliable. That's Fulmer or better. Healthy and solid. A gamble that might pay off makes some sense for a second arm, but not as a primary signing.

Honestly, I'm not sure what else to add to your article, Nick. Well said sir! I do think Bundy, by himself, as a 5th starter for a team that had to re-build almost the entire staff on the fly, wasn't a horrible choice. I mean, he kept the Twins in games and marched out there every 5th day. The problem was having Bundy AND Archer in the rotation. And the plan of Archer eventually getting stronger and stretching out just never came close to materializing. (I guess I didn't realize he was also fighting a bad hip). I liked Gray when we traded for him, and I like him now. I didn't like ignoring the vast FA market last year and "settling" for only Bundy. HUGE mistake. Additionally, why did it take until about August for Rocco to finally say ANYTHING about needing/wanting middle relief? Now, to be fair, Winder was doing that early until he had to slide in the rotation and then he also got hurt. So there was at least SOME attempt to set up middle relief but it blew up in a hurry! And Smith was the ONLY FA brought in along with Pagan in trade? Wow!

In theory, I think not spending huge on your pen is a smart idea. But that doesn't mean not spending at all. And I do think the FO has gotten way to cute in their approach/belief in a lot of their additions. They've probably done far better in trades than in FA arms which baffles me. RP may be volatile, but spending smartly up front is better than trading prospects mid year because you didn't do your job before the season. I agree that there is a potentially really good pen in the making currently. We all know the names: Duran, Lopez, Jax, Thielbar, Alcala and Moran. And in Winder, Sands, Henriquez, etc, there are a lot of middle relief options to create the very necessary bridge between the starters and the back end of the pen. Something they grossly ignored for a good portion of last year. I'm very encouraged by Moran, (will they keep Sisk on the 40 man for LH depth?), and the return/potential of Alcala. But I don't know that I want to count on them. I want more depth, more options. I'm more than OK with Fulmer back, or someone else at least as good. I'm also very interested in Hand for another proven LH. I don't know that I'm crazy about Rogers, but if he's healthy, a return "home" might do wonders for him. And the Twins know how best to use him. They have $50M to spend, or more depending on Urshela and Kepler decisions. There are no glaring holes anywhere other than an answer at SS. But they need a RH bat somewhere, another catcher, said SS, and MAYBE a SP if the right one can be found. Can they afford a combined $10-12M for TWO pen arms? If they can fit it in to payroll, that's what I'd like to see. Fulmer or equivalent/better, and a solid LH you feel you can count on for a combined $10-12M. ONE is almost a necessity. TWO would be a luxury that I don't know if is affordable, but would be outstanding depth!

My personal 2023 bullpen is based on 3 things. 1] Talent on hand. 2] Needs. 3] Health. Duran is a STUD. Lopez has tremendous stuff. Did anyone expect him to do what he did in his first year as a reliever and continue to do it? I didn't. I seldom if ever expect a player to just continue to be amazing during a transition time and movement between franchises. But he has some wicked stuff. Unless the Twins mess him up, they have a great arm to work with and make him an important part of 2023. I believe in Jax. I believe Thielbar still has the stuff. Moran has done nothing at the ML level to say he isn't about ready to take on a serious role. A healthy Alcala could make a huge difference. He's got the stuff and really flashed late in 2021. There is a base for an excellent pen in 2023 based on what is on hand. But it needs more. I'm OK with Rogers, healthy and ready to go. But maybe Hand is the better option. And, IMO, whoever is added should be Fulmer quality or better. Fulmer has been pretty damn good since his conversion a year and a half ago. He's NOT been a "lights out" guy so far, but he's been a solid 6-7th inning guy.. I love Rogers. But if hand comes at the same price, or slightly above, I'm probably in on Hand. But I'm not going to be disappointed on Fulmer back again. The biggest question is the guys who fill the middle relief role.

Gang, I'm totally conflicted about Correa, which is why I had to make a recent post in the Forum section. My personal blueprint for 2023 was without Correa because it made sense to me to take that approach. And I stand by that blueprint, even with a "fantasy" idea in my head that has been proposed by others...in various incarnations...where Correa is re-signed, some limited in scope, some more aggressive by moving on from Urshela and Kepler and other variations. And I don't have the answer as to what the Twins should do. On one hand we have the "DO'S" and on the other hand we have the "DON'T's". The bite is, both sides have very valid arguements! DO: The Twins lock down SS with a potential HOF player who not only stabilizes SS for the next 5-6yrs and maybe an extra year or two with health, but provides quality offense, a "been there, done that" experience factor, leadership, and might be one of the smartest players in all of MLB. On top of that, he provides a real leadership for not only the infield...which is getting real young real quick with Lewis, Lee, Krilloff, Miranda, Arraez, Julien, etc...but for the team as a whole. Imagine a STAR player at SS for several years to come, a producer, and Lewis taking over at 2B...maybe being one of the best in all of MLB...and the "natural" Lee at 3B, with Miranda at 1B, still able to fill in at 3B, a healthy AK also playing 1B, as well as OF, and Arraez able to play 3 infield spots as well as DH. Lewis and Lee and Gordon can all cover SS on occasion. And that's just the infield. Larnach, Buxton, Wallner in the OF with AK also playing there and a hopefully improved Celestino, along with Gordon and maybe another RH OF addition at some point. This could be as early as 2024, with parts of it manifesting in 2023. DONT: So much $ tied to ONE player, despite his offerings. More $ to spend on the rest of the team and a bridge player to cover SS until Lewis is ready. It's a gamble, and a small gamble, IMO, because I think Lewis will be at least a solid ML SS. But you can still see an infield of Lee at 3B, Lewis at SS, Polanco or maybe Julien at 2B, and Miranda at 1B/3B with AK at 1B/OF and Arraez still covering 3 positions as well as DH and still having all of the same OF potential as previously listed. And again, this infield and OF option could be in 2024 with parts of in place 2023. But you sacrifice a truly transitional talent for the franchise a whole to bank on the promise of what you have, and what is close. I'm torn! I see both sides of this. And I think both sides are solid in their thoughts. And I'm not sure which way is the best. I guess I'm thinking, 8yrs and $280M to go with option #1, and don't be cute and wait and miss out on other opportunities. Patience for deals is one thing, being blind to opportunity to do something different is being short sighted and obsitent.

FWIW, and I can't find the article now, (dangit), but Heyman had a post recently I read where he had Correa for 8-9yrs and around $270-280M. Not sure where his numbers come from vs other projections, but I thought it was interesting when I read it.

I've gone back and forth on the front load idea as well. As has been pointed out, smartly, by others, a $35M per will be worth "less" 6-9yrs from now as payrolls increase. Paying less up front gives an extra few $M per to go to the rest of the roster, but paying more up front with so many cost controlled players making up the roster over the next couple of years allows some extra flexibility payroll flexibility down the road. So yeah, I'm torn on that part of any offer. I do wonder if an opt out in 4 or 5yrs is an added incentive to a potential deal? I remain conflicted on the total years and dollars of the deal. I've always been conflicted about the whole 10yr and $330M idea. For whatever reason, Seager got 10yrs from Texas, but for less than the proposed Correa $330M idea. And again, for whatever reason, NOBODY stepped up to offer anything similar for Correa last year. And a recent podcast from Gleeman and the Geek with guest Dan Hayes offered the opinion for $315-ish to get a deal done. BUT, if 10yrs and $330M was a proposed idea in 2021's offseason, but Correa...still young...is another year older and earned $35M last year, shouldn't we be talking about 8-9yrs and $290M this time out? I guess I'm just confused how another year has gone by, NOBODY jumped at the 10yr $330M idea last year, and now we're speculating almost the same terms a year later. We're still talking a HUGE and long term deal, but I'm confused about terms a year later.

I knew someone smarter than me would know right where to look. Thanks! The old phrase there are lies, greater lies, and then statistics comes to mind at times when we talk baseball. There are simply so many different ways to analyze everything in baseball that I agree its impossible to accurately measure or quantify everything player to player or year to year. But regardless if these measurements prove Jeffers more positively or Sanchez more negative, it affirms what my eyes have seen and what my ears have hears. BTW, absolutely LOVED "Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Sanchez" with the scratch outs. Priceless!

One of the biggest "tragedies" in Twins history is Mauer being forced to move from behind the plate. Even then, he turned himself in to a great 1B who could still hit and get OB. I still believe he was miscast as a hitter, especially in his later years, as a #3 hitter and should have been hitting #1 or #2 in the lineup as a table setter. But I digress. I was too young to ever watch or appreciate Earl Battey as the Twins catcher when the franchise moved to Minnesota. I was a young fan at 5yo listening to my dad and his transistor radio, but when I became a true FAN, was in the mid 70's with Butch Wynegar as the Twins #1 guy. For decades the catcher spot was a game calling, catch and throw position. And if you had one who could hit and provide offense and power, you really had something! But there were so few Bench and Fisk and Carter type players in the league. But then something happened around the late 90's and the start of the new millennium...much like SS...where there was an influx of quality catchers who could do it all. And Mauer was one of the very best EVER, even if his career behind the plate was cut short. He did things no other catcher ever did in the grand history of baseball. Even as a homer, he's a HOF'er in my book. But it sure seems to me the Twins have been pretty blessed with quality catchers in their history. Wynegar was very good and had flashes offensively. The Twins won 2 WS with Laudner and Harper at catcher. Two completely different players, but each filled their role very well. And we have joked many times about Sal and Drew Butera and Redmond, but they filled a role over the years behind the Twins "starting" catcher. AJ was a fine catcher who was traded away to make room for Mauer. So a lot of great catching before and with Mauer. Agreed it's been a little disjointed since then, but not poor. Suzuki was a fine catcher for a few years and so was Castro, as Garver transitioned to taking over the top spot. All 3 of these guys were fine catchers, not studs, who provided what was needed behind the plate, and produced different levels of offense from year to year. Honestly, just good game calling and defense, with solid offense, I can't think of a season for the past 6 or 7 years where the Twins didn't have a "solid", if not good, catching situation. Garver FLASHED BIG TIME, and then regressed. Love the guy, but the Twins made the right move at the right time. I've been disappointed in the FO to not address the catcher position more aggressively than they have. They've taken shots with Banuelos and Carmago. They've drafted 5 or 6 catchers in the last couple of drafts to work with and develop. But they are all 2-3yrs away from proving any long term answer. That leaves Jeffers and someone to add to fill the roster with a quality secondary option. Jeffers, and I know he was a college player, had 2yrs of milb and a little over 600AB in the minors split over rookie/A/AA ball before he was promoted from the taxi squad in 2020. I never bought in to the hype in 2021 that he and Garver were amongst the best tandem in MLB. Again. 2yrs and 600AB in milb before his promotion. He NEVER had a catching coach in college, taught himself, and finally got real defensive coaching once he was a pro. I was asked recently in a different thread why I believe Jeffers is a good defensive catcher. I could point to a 2.2FWAR, OR the recent TD defensive article from SABR SDI rankings that have him at 2.0, but didn't qualify due to games played. And while I don't subscribe to a site that allows me defensive details, I'd bet his team ERA while catching is better than most alternatives. Or I could just say I don't always understand all of these metrics but have watched him play these past 2 1/2 years and been impressed from what I've seen, and he's usually been the catcher when, win or lose, the team allowed just 3 or less runs. (I really wish someone had the team ERA numbers). I KNOW his throwing numbers aren't great. But is that really the most important thing vs calling a game and having the confidence of the staff? We call all agree to disagree. And that's OK. I like what I've seen from Jeffers behind the plate, but see potential improvement. I like a 25yo backstop with power who has hit in college, milb, teased at the ML level, and has only about 530AB at the ML level thus far, and was on an upward trend in 2022 before his broken thumb. I ask again, honestly, with his still limited AB, if Jeffers had been healthy and finished 2022 with a .245 AVG and 14 HR, would we be having conversations about how he needs to be replaced? I just don't think we've seen the best of him yet. I am fully on bord trusting improvement/reaching, or starting to reach his potential in 2023. I want a solid co-catcher to complete the lineup. There are larger holes to fill AFTER a co-catcher is brought on board. If 2023 turns out badly, then I'm all in for looking for a different option.

This is not the blueprint I put together simply because I felt I had to create one that didn't include Correa. But if I could do one that I WANT to have happen, this would come pretty darn close. (I may feel compelled to do another one). A couple notes: 1] I like the Mancini signing and hadn't thought about him. I went $10M for Haniger, but I like the Mancini idea as well, and at a lower cost. Very interesting. 2] IMO, and blueprint, I cheated and kept Ober in a 6 man rotation as I'm playing devil's advocate and expecting someone to be hurt or dinged at any one time. To me, you place Moran in to his BP slot. And I'd place a healthy Winder in the pen over either Sands or Megill. After that, it's open competition for someone to join Winder, which changes if the Twins can squeeze another $5-6M in somewhere to bring back Fulmer, or someone comparable. (Leaning to brining Hand back home to Minnesota). 3] PAYROLL is hard to speculate, but agree it needs to bump, and I suspect it will. I've been using a flat $140M with a fair 5% bump that should just be an "average" expected bump. That allows $147M. That gives the Twins approximately $52M to spend. Making some aggressive as well as smart moves to re-tool means saying goodbye to Urshela and Kepler in trades. That's another $18M to spend, or a total of $70M total. Sounds crazy, right? a] IF Correa is a full $35M per, and Rodon signs for a Gausman/Ray deal, that accounts for $58M. That leaves $12M, in this potential scenario, for a 2nd catcher, a RH bat, and one more quality BP arm. That's cutting things really close/fine. But Mancini, Narvaez and Fulmer back is only a small squeeze to hit $150M, which should place them about the middle of MLB ranking somewhere around 14th-16th place in total payroll. b] In regard to the listed payroll, Dobnak's $1.5M counts toward 2023, (And he might still turn out to be helpful, if fully recovered), as does the $3M for Paddack. But the other $4.5M you listed counts backward to 2022. So there is another $4.5M, in this scenario, that can be added towards another addition. Perhaps a little more if Correa isn't front loaded.

Me or auto correct I have no idea! LOL Of course I meant Sanchez. Thank you for catching that.