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Minnesota Twins Roster Project and Organizational Depth
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Seth, with the exception of picking an initial 14 man roster, I think you have it pretty much if the season started TOMORROW. Thankfully, it doesn't start tomorrow and I think...hope...there's at least one more player move involved. IF the payroll was stretched to $120M, there's room to add a 1B still (Lowe?) and let Bell be the PRIMARY DH. If the payroll comes in around $115M, they can still TRADE for a young 1B at or near the minimum $. Who and who for I'm just not going in to the details at this time. They could also just grab a USEFUL player like switch hitting Ramon Urias...with almost neutral career splits...for help at 1B/2B/3B for around $4-5M based on projected cost. While I'd prefer a true 1B addition and let Bell be the primary DH, someone like Urias adds a decent, veteran bat with some pop, and his $ is added with the subtraction of Larnach. And while Larnach can still be dropped with ZERO $ spent, I'd still try to package him with a decent prospect to a team that could use a solid, proven LH bat against RHP for a platoon DH/OF role for a solid, young arm that currently sits around 4th or 5th in the pecking order of a team but has upside. Sort of a Varland-ish type. Whether it's an actual 1B as the BEST addition, or a useful player such as Urias, the roster depth and balance is better. CATCHER: We have our primary 2. We don't need BOTH Gasper and Pereda. I actually like Pereda better as he's an actual catcher, IMO, while Gasper used to catch, was removed from that duty by the BoSox, and then was ATTEMPTED to return to catcher by the Twins. DEPTH: Honestly, I think a couple months of AAA experience will make Cardenas the best #3 option. He's solid behind the plate, has a good arm, and has a solid eye and solid contact in his bat. I think he's a young, but better Butera type. (It also frees up an additional 40 man spot in the future for various moves) INFIELD: I have objections to Keaschall playing almost anywhere other than 2B in order for him to refine his mechanics there. He can get to balls! He just needs to smooth out his footwork and mechanics when he GETS to the ball. So why mess with his development? And who do you put at 2B if he plays 1B or OF? Clemens? I'm not sure I see a lot of wisdom there, but OK. But IF they DON'T add a TRUE 1B via FA or TRADE, a useful player like Urias can plug in to 2B when/if you really want to mess with Keaschall's development and move him around. He can also form a quasi platoon with Clemens at 1B if/when you want to put Bell at DH. NOT my IDEAL, but I think you can see the versatility at least. Lewis is at 3B, Lee is at SS, and Keaschall is still your primary 2B. 1B is in flux, IMO, with Bell part of the equation, as well as Clemens, as well as Urias, in my example. I simply don't understand any love for Kreidler. IDK how good his glove is, he can BARELY hit at the AAA level. IMO, it's only a matter of time before he's removed from the 40 man in hopes of being added to the AAA roster. Fitzgerald has a solid glove, a little speed and pop, and won't embarrass himself at the plate. DEPTH: When K-Pepper is ready, the INF depth suddenly changes. Whether he takes over SS day one, or starts as a utility player, Fitzgerald/Kreidler becomes a moot point. Ross has the ability to play 4-5 positions. He's got some speed and some pop, but he's barely ever hit anywhere. It would take a HUGE step forward for him to be a ML player. HOWEVER, I think a lot of people have forgotten about Schobel. He really turned around his projections in 2025 after a major slump in 2024. He basically RAKED in AA last season, earned a promotion to St Paul, and then got hurt almost immediately. I believe he was healthy for the last couple of weeks, but keep him in mind for the 2nd half of 2026. *It pains me to say it, but Julien is an easy cut who would probably pass through waivers. OUTFIELD: This HAS to begin with Outman being OUT. He hasn't hit ML pitching since 2023. He didn't hit with the Twins, and didn't look particularly good defensively either. I don't believe a 24-25-26yo player has NO FUTURE as history has proven some guys just mature in their mid 20's and turn out to be good ballplayers. But to expect a 29yo to SUDDENLY find himself again is a ridiculous waste of roster space. He's an easy cut for a pen addition, should easily pass through waivers, and might stick around for AAA depth. But even THAT is questionable considering the St Paul OF to begin 2026. With THAT messy business out of the way, let's examine the 2026 OF in detail. Martin suddenly looked like a legitimate ML player in 2025. He raked in AAA, had injury issues, and really played well the last 2 months for the Twins when finally healthy. Perhaps just as important, he played a very good LF. Can he take that offensive and defensive development and carry it over to 2026? Can his improvement in LF carry over to being competent in CF as well? With limited pop, can his contact and spraying the ball continue? He's got a role if he can continue. And can we give Roden a little break? His MILB numbers are very good. He's a solid defender who can play both corner spots well and can cover CF here and there decently. And he's also got some 1B experience as well. And I don't know about service time, but based on ML AB, he enters 2026 as a rookie. He's a good AVG hitter with decent contact and a solid OB% with a little mix of speed and pop. I don't know that a disappointing debut with less than 150 ML AB should exclude him from being a decent, solid ML player. Those 2 are probably part of LF to begin 2026, and they should be. This is a lineup in FLUX and Larnach just shouldnt be part of the plan at this point. Buxton is in CF. Nothing more needs to be said other than Martin and Roden can provide acceptable days off here and there, before we discuss prospects. Wallner appears to be the opening day RF. That's not MY plan as I'd just "go for it" with a healthy Rodriguez and use his remaining option if needed, but that's not what I see the Twins doing. Between cost control and just a paranoid aversion from promoting too soon, Wallner will be the starting RF. He's not bad, just a little slow getting his body moving forward. And his arm is such a weapon, nobody runs on him. And while many are down on him, and he will always be a bit of a 3 outcome batter, I just don't understand how so many can be so down on him considering his MILB numbers, his decent rookie numbers, TWO consecutive seasons of a .875 OPS, and then an injury affected 2025 where his OPS was STILL above average. DEPTH: 3 of your TOP 10 prospects are AAA OF with Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Gonzalez. A top 20 prospect in Rosario is ready for the AAA challenge. And a "non prospect" like Fedko...coming off a great season where he challenged a 30/30 year...provides OUTSTANDING depth to the point where you even wonder not only why Outman is still around, but is there even room for him at AAA? Of course, Clemens also provides some OF depth, as does Keaschall, potentially, but I still take that with a grain of salt. The way the opening day roster SHOULD look like, considering Falvey is always cautious with promoting prospects, and an expected ONE MORE ADDITION considering comments made by Zoll SHOULD be: CATCHER: SET INFIELD: Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Bell, Clemens, Fitzgerald over Kreidler because Fitz is simply the better overall player, and a TBD. OUTFIELD: Martin, Roden, Buxton, and Wallner. This is a team trying to compete, but also re-tooling on the fly. And I don't have a problem with that. The single biggest question is whether or not the FO adds a full time 1B via FA or trade, or adds a "useful" player for depth purposes. There is ZERO reason to keep someone like Outman around. Unfortunately, there's also no reason to keep Julien around either. That's your 13 man position player roster to begin 2026 with ONE open spot to add. And that roster will change come June 1st, and/or July 1st. But there remains ONE open spot to ADD an INF option at 1B, or as a solid utility option for the temporary.- 81 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- josh bell
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I expect little of Brosmer going forward. But come on. He's a smart kid with some skills and at least offers SOME potential as a backup option. In Vikings history, Brad Johsnon and Wade Wilson were, or would have been UDFA based on the current system. Purdy was the last man standing in his draft. I'm only stating this kid is a good athlete, has a decent arm, and is smart. He didn't blow last week, and helped win this week by simply not making mistakes. We might just have a solid young backup is all I'm saying.
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Sorry Seth, born and raised in South Dakota in early years, and a Nebraskan since about age 11 in Nebraska, I've been a Twins junkie since about 5 or 6 with my dad listening to the radio and teaching me the game. It's a wonder when a local kid makes good because I grew up as a Minnesota fan. I don't dislike this Varland trade because he was a Minnesota native, as some have proclaimed. I disliked the move for the move. If Carlson is s good move on a MILB deal to add to St Paul and MAYBE surprise for the Twins at some point in 2026, so be it. But wishes or not, sorry, that's all it is at this point.
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I was impressed that Brosmer didn't give the game away. I wasn't impressed with some of the game calling. We were playing with THREE backup OL! Obviously the Lions knew this. And I'm sure they adjusted their defense to such, which usually only pressure with 4 and play zone. But I can't believe OKC couldn't have opened the playback a little farther for a couple TE or RB crossing routes The WR handoff or shovel pass to Addison was BRILLIANT. But maybe there should have been a little more creativity early on considering you were playing a rookie QB? The defense won this game. The offense and special teams did enough. For the 2nd week in a row Brosmer did just enough to win a game. I just think OKC might have held back the reigns a bit too much, even for a rookie QB.
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That's funny! Honestly, i appreciate a once a week funny. And I'm a man of humor and satire. But I grow weary of similar attempts on TD that often aren't. I'd leave it to Stu for the most part.
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- mickey gasper
- derek falvey
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I agree in regard to Lee. We COULD mention Plouffe as a more minor example, but it digresses the conversation, so we'll just stick with the arguement as is. I keep reminding people, to little avail, that not only did Lee move very quickly...maybe too quickly considering some of his current contact issues...but even though he debuted in 2024, he entered 2025 with 172 ML AB. The cutoff for rookie status is 140 AB. (I understand service time, but I'm looking at ON THE FIELD time). That means he entered 2025 only 22 ML AB above rookie status. Argue with me if you will, but he was barely above ROOKIE status entering the season. One question about Lee was actual potential. While he didn't MASH, and his DBLs power was WAY too low, his 16 fingers in 487 AB was a nice surprise. And they weren't all cheap either. This would seem to indicate potential for more power, even of the DBLs variety, if he can just make better contact. Defensively, he's average at best at SS. Much of playing SS is positioning, solid hands, off balance throws, and also just getting rid of the ball quickly, and with a solid throw. It's not all about athleticism. And while I don't have them handy, have personal doubts about many defensive metrics, and they've already been posted previously in different OP's, his defense at SS was better post Correa trade when he assumed the #1 spot. I believe he was about league average over those last 2 months. I've watched Lee a TON since his arrival as a rookie in '24 and near rookie throughout '25. He's got good hands. He's got a good, quick transition of glove to hand. His arm is OK, not great. He can even make the off balance throw well. And at 25yo, he has room to improve everything he does at every base he might play at. But I have my doubts about a ML average SS when others in the system, such as K-Pepper and Houston offer up so much more athleticism, and even better arms. I still see a role for Lee as an ever day, or almost every day player. And I ignore defensive metrics at this base, and that base, for a young kid still settling in. I can see a future where he takes over 3B and Lewis moves to 1B, NOT as a demotion for Lewis, but simply as a result of getting the very best players playing daily. And I can see Lee taking over 2B for Keaschall playing 1B daily as a highly productive player who simply isn't the normal SLUGGER you expect there. Carew, Joyner, Grace, Hernandez, Erstad, Bellinger, and Arraez all say HELLO along with others. But I can also see a scenario that really intrigues me where Lee becomes a Super Utility INF. And I've stated this a dozen times now. With a little less speed, he could be a better Marwin Gonzalez, or a bigger, more powerful version of Castro where he plays almost daily across the entire INF due to injury and just natural days off. He could be a 500 AB player for a good team just filling in at ALL 4 spots due to injury or DH duty for the regulars, PH duties, and late game replacement. The future Twins have a lot to say about his future role. But getting rid of his obsession with "poor contact is a good" thing is the key to ANY future he has. The "Miranda disease" has to be the #1 thing he has to work on.
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- michael cuddyer
- jose berrios
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I think Martin showed...when healthy...that he had turned a corner in 2025. He raked at AAA and looked like a competent ML hitter in his 2 months with the Twins, and played MUCH BETTER defense than we have ever seen from him before. Can he take that defensive improvement to CF as well for occasional duty? I think he's finally a legitimate ML ballplayer. I think he can help the Twins in 2026, but I'm not sure about a long term fit. He still has to battle Roden for playing time in the LF...Roden can also see time in RF...and at some point Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Gonzalez should all 3 debut. SWR really saved the Twins butt in 2024 with his new arm slot, and better velocity. He actually got better and better as the season went along before running out of gas late in the season. Sims really disappointed me early in 2025, but he really finished the season strong, even after losing a bunch of weight due to his intestinal issues, embraced his new splitter, and IMO, still shows greater potential. I think he's a lock for the #4 spot and could possibly even push Ober for the #3 role, which is saying a lot if Ober is 100%. But that's how good Sims looked late in 2025.
- 31 replies
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- michael cuddyer
- jose berrios
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Should the Twins Deal from Their Rotation Depth?
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm going to clearly admit that I'm completely TORN about trading ANY pitching for 2026 based on THREE very simple reasons: 1] Finding top of the rotation SP is about the hardest thing to do. Pre 2025 hip injury to Ober, he has been in that category. He's 30yo? PLEASE! SO many SP are just at their peak around 30yo when stuff and experience take hold. You just can't discount his hip being a factor in 2025. Regarding an injury "history"? That was when he was a MILB prospect who's mechanics were weird. That was fixed. That's why he became a viable playoff caliber SP before his recent hip injury. 2] I still have doubts about SWR's ceiling. This kid has endured more trama than most prospects usually go through from early promotion, to losing at LEAST another half of development from making an Olympic team and NOT throwing, to a rework of his motion, to battling an intestinal issue in 2025 that seemed to rob him of the development he made in 2024. Despite it all, and no pun intended, I saw the "guts" this kid showed late in '24 before tiring. And I saw an even better pitcher late in '25 when he seemed to come to grips with his splitter. I'm not sure about his ceiling yet, but he's shown glimpses of being better than a #4 potentially. 3] While a healthy Festa has really flashed, he's destined as a top RP option. I think most of us can agree with that. And that's not a bad thing, even if it's a bit disappointing. Matthews has the build, the stuff, and the high K rate to indicate a little more polish, he might be pretty damn good. Abel has as good or better stuff and also needs a little more harnessing of his talent. Bradley is even younger, despite is ML experience, with as good of stuff. But he's also digressed somewhat. Can the Twins staff turn him around? Morris is being dismissed by too many based on accidentally tipping his pitches early in 2025, and ending the season on a great note following a brief IL stint. And the Twins believe LH Rojas...pushed through the system the way SWR was...has top 100 prospect potential at the end of 2026. BUT, do the Twins believe SWR, Matthews, Abel, and Morris are about ready to take that next step? So THAT is my concern. Any maybe I'm being too reserved in my opinion of the SP options on hand. Which isn't really like me, LOL. I'm always the optimist. But I'm also a realist. I'm a believer in Ober being his normal, quality, #3 SP who throws like a #2 some days. I love Ryan, but I also understand he doesn't always finish the season as strong as you'd like. So my ANSWER to the OP is, somewhat regrettable, trade ONE of Ryan, Ober, or SWR if you have enough faith in those talented arms on hand to replace what you lost. Honestly, the potential is there to make a trade. That's true. It's not what I WANT currently, because I REALLY want the TOP prospects to force their hand in the OF, the INF, the PEN and even the SP staff, and make mid season trades all the more viable. And it causes me some pain to say this, but considering talent on hand, and the prospects about to debut, IF a trade of a SP would be made, I wouldn't object to the next Mourneau. I don't know who that might be. And it's a high ceiling to cover. And said prospect/player might not be as good. But if he's even close, that would be a solid trade. Otherwise, I'd run with all the talent on board, promote within, work on the talent on board, and consider trades mid season. TOP talent SP options are valuable. I get it. But the return should also be very valuable. -
2026 Position Player Roster Imbalance
DocBauer replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
You're right. To some degree it HAS been the Twins way. As previously stated, holding on to poor veteran depth for the sake has been a paranoia issue with Falvey. And I sorta get it when you look back at a couple previous seasons where injuries just decimated the team. I think back to 2022...my first and so far only visit to Target Field...where the Twins had a starting OF of mostly LH journeymen starting against a LH pitcher from the Rangers. So I can somewhat appreciate his paranoia to a degree. But this is going to be 2026. And a lot has changed since then. Depending on what prospect list you want to agree with, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalez, K-Pepper, Mendez, Abel, and Morris are All top 10-12 prospects and ALL scheduled to be at St Paul to begin the season, or just about to be there in the case of K-Pepper and Mendez. It's time to move on from Larnach...a solid player I actually like, but doesn't FIT...and no more Outman types clogging up the roster. Sorry to say, but that includes Julien as well, barring a sudden, MASSIVE turnaround. Martin looks like a ML player now. Roden has the skills to be a valuable 4th OF who should ALSO be used at 1B, since he can play it, and it increases his value. But NO MORE poor "veteran" depth options. There's no need! Bell, maybe another BAT that might still come on board, and a couple solid 1yr deal relievers make sense to BRIDGE the collection of prospects that will be knocking on the door, as well as the pen conversion arms you might not want to give a primary job opening day. Falvey and his staff and scouts have collected the young talent. And I believe his butt is on a "hot seat" in regard to him continuing to run the baseball side of the organization. So it is especially pertinent for him to get over his damned paranoia, and for him and Zoll...who's power and influence we really don't know...to GET OVER THEMSELVES and recognize it's time to get the younger players up as soon as they look ready. A decent, solid, productive and even competitive season doesn't mean the opening day roster is the one you finish with. Holding back the future only holds back the future, and the potential of such. This time next season, we could realistically be looking to just fill a hole or two if the FO does their job properly in 2025. We can hope, right?- 31 replies
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2026 Position Player Roster Imbalance
DocBauer replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Great take, even if we have slightly different ideas on the best course of action. I'm totally with you on playing the younger kids and let's develop them and see what they've got. It's why I've argued to get Rodriguez up day one if he's healthy and has a good ST. I doubt they do that, however. But get him and Jenkins up SOON, assuming good health and production like I expect out of them. And we should could use Gonzalez RH bat at some point as well. And while we're at it, if K-Pepper continues to look as good as he is, get him by July. Suddenly the INF looks better, deeper, and we may not have to worry about who they get to start the season at utility. I continue to maintain this is going to be a season of 2 parts: who opens on the roster will end up be different than who finishes the season. That's why I personally am not opposed to a handful of 1yr deals like Bell, and a couple decent pen arms to allow a couple of kids in AAA a little more time to throw, work on a couple of things, adjust to being a reliever, and then get THEM UP also. Things could blow up. I hope they don't. But let's get the prospects in the lineup and in the pen sooner rather than later. You can have a decent team that is hopefully in contention for a winning season, while still balancing 2027 and the future at the same time if you do it right. And by doing it right, I mean Falvey getting over his obsession with holding on to poor veteran depth for the sake of depth. All that does is keep you spinning wheels in neutral, and holding back the future.- 31 replies
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- left handed hitter
- out of options
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2026 Position Player Roster Imbalance
DocBauer replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I hope your wrong. With all due respect to Martin and Roden...who I think have a chance to be solid, ML players...neither has the potential of Rodriguez or Jenkins. Only waiting for injuries for a promotion of young talent is never thr smart way to go.- 31 replies
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- left handed hitter
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Arguably, Jeffers and Lopez are the 2 "smartest" players on the roster. And since he came to the Twins Day One, he's been very open to all the analytics/information the Twins have offered. And he's become a better pitcher with us than he was previously. But it does beg the question asked previously, why not simply throw BOTH changes around 50/50? If you wonder that the "kick change" will be less affective the more it's thrown, then why not throw it more, but not make it the PRIMARY change? To me it feels similar to having a great curve and a great slider. Throw both, mix them up, and it might depend on the batter you're facing.
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2026 Position Player Roster Imbalance
DocBauer replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
This is just my take. Larnach was kept to "set the floor" before additions were made. So far, we've seen a fairly major one in Bell. I believe they are glong to move him in SOME sort of deal. And this is especially true if they add some sort of RH bat to help at 1B/DH, MAYBE someone who could "handle" 3B or a corner OF spot here and there. By himself, he brings in some sort of prospect. Packaged with someone else, he might bring in a decent pen arm. It's also my understanding that until ink is laid to paper, they have the option to just release him and save the $ to be spent elsewhere. I just don't see a fit for him on the '26 roster. I agree, in general principal, with @Riverbrianthat it's hard to be TOO LH over a 162 game schedule where you face RHP 75% of the time. HOWEVER, by Falvey's own, and rather obvious, admission, the Twins are going to sign at least a couple RP of ML quality and experience. Who and how good remains to be seen. Right there, 2 guys currently on the 40 man, who don't belong, are going to be gone, regardless of the Larnach situation. Brian and I disagree on Outman as he believes Outman is almost a lock because Falvey traded for him at the deadline last year. However, not only did he continue to be BAD, but Roden and Martin are ALSO players Falvey traded for. And while I loved Stewart, he was an injury waiting to happen, and thus, not a TOP player or prospect. Honestly not sure why Julien is still on the 40 man, and that makes me sad. And he's out of options. What possible role does he fill for 2026 unless someone is hurt AND he suddenly starts hitting? He's a cut out of ST if not before. Kriedler remains a mystery to me. The guy would have to field like Ozzie Smith considering how horrendous his bat is. I still suspect they plan to cut him and hope he slides through waivers for St Paul duty. I can see a small deal for a MILB SS from someone, and a possible "Castro hopeful" invite to compete with Kreidler and Fitzgerald for that 2nd utility spot. At least Fitzgerald doesn't embarrass himself at the plate. They AREN'T going to open the season with Jenkins on the roster for some good reasons. And while I'd really like them to "bite the bullet" and give Rodriguez a job DAY ONE if healthy and having a solid ST, I'm willing to bet he gets a month at AAA. The OF should be Roden, Martin, Buxton, and Wallner. Roden and Martin aren't ideal CF backups, but they're OK for occasionally duty. And they MIGHT play Keaschall some in the OF, but I think that's a bit misguided, and a bit of smoke as well. The infield is Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Bell, and Clemens. Catcher is set with Jeffers and Jackson. That's 11 locks. There's room for two more. One is obvious for a utility player who can cover SS. I cringe even considering Kreidler, but I suppose he has to be considered. Fitzgerald isn't quite as good of a glove, but he's the better bat option. And again, they might still uncover another option on a MILB type signing. This is still a mystery spot. And it's really a temporary spot until K-Pepper is ready, or maybe even a surprise like Schobel, who shouldn't be ignored considering his 2025 season before being hurt. That still leaves ONE addition. Yes, despite what I've previously stated, there's potential room for Larnach or Outman to take that final spot. But with Jenkins, Rodriguez, and even Gonzalez sitting at AAA, what role does Outman even have other than as a PR and SUPPOSEDLY good bench defender when he was average at best with the Twins in that role? And why pay Larnach almost $5M to be a DH when 3 of your top 10 prospects are OF and any one of them, and Wallner, and anyone else having a half day off could also DH? So you keep Larnach just to try and trade him at the deadline? I just don't see a logical fit! Remember when I said it's hard to be too LH? It's true. But this also an opportunity to ADD a decent RH bat who can help at 1B/DH to work along side Bell and Clemens. There has been speculation about Miguel Andujar as an inexpensive option. That might be a smart move if they don't actually trade for a full time 1B option and let Bell be the primary DH. The last 2 spots are the mystery, otherwise 11 position spots are set. My goodness, I'd welcome a Pedro Florimon option instead of Kreidler as of today, but hope they could uncover a "Castro-lite" somewhere. But I'd take Fitzgerald for my utility man, backup SS at this point. And for better roster construction, I'd hope they'd just move Larnach and try something different, whether it be long term or short term. And it's not as though I dislike Larnach. I just don't see a roster fit that makes sense. But the 40 man IS going to look different over the next couple of months as at least 2 ML pen arms are going to be added. And I'm still betting on another BAT being added based on need, and comments from Zoll as to what they are looking for. So there's a really good chance Larnach, Outman, Gasper, and Julien are all possible drops.- 31 replies
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I'm also going to have to disagree. It's not as simple as stating the Twins haven't produced enough elite or top players, at least since Falvey took over. And sometimes, it's what prospects bring back, not just what they do for the Twins. Petty brought back Gray. Arraez was developed while working for THIS FO and traded for Lopez. Ryan was acquired as a solid, but not great, AAA prospect and developed in to an All Star pitcher. Ober has been very good before his hip hindered him in 2025. SWR and Martin were both acquired as prospects. SWR has turned out pretty well and shows more potential. Martin seems to have turned a corner to be at least a serviceable ML player. Duran, Jax, and Varland acquired or drafted by this FO and turned out quite well. Wallner...who I think has been held down too long at times...had a solid debut, and followed that up with a pair of HIGH .800 OPS seasons before a slump in 2025 that I still believe was due to his hamstring injury. Larnach never became the player hoped for, but he became an AVERAGE ML producer. That's pretty much a 70-75% outcome, roughly, for a drafted player. That's considered a quality outcome overall when you consider how few prospects EVER achieve that kind of career. Admittedly, the jury is still out on some guys. We've seen how good of a player Lewis can be when healthy. The FO, and the coaches, are not responsible for his injuries. The good news is how he looked the 2nd of of 2025, and the number of games played. Still only 26yo. I'm not sure what to expect of Lee, still only 25yo in 2026. Starting 2B or 3B? Super utility INF? He entered 2025 with ONLY 172 ML AB. That's a lousy 22 AB above rookie qualification. He showed some power, drove in some runs, and played better at SS post Correa trade. Can he take another step forward in 2026? I sure hope so. But again, only 25yo and ONE full ML season under his belt. Festa flashed nicely in 2024, but battled shoulder issues almost the entire 2025. I think he's destined for the pen, but he sure has shown potential. Same with Matthews. He wasn't really supposed to debut in '24, but injuries said otherwise. He's simply not a finished product yet. But he's also flashed some really good games and maintained high K numbers, indicating his potential. And while some trades simply haven't worked as hoped...ugh...other prospects have been used in various trade deals. So I don't think it's accurate to say the current FO, and their coaches, have failed to develop prospects at this point. And while I'm not saying all of this is going to happen, imagine Lewis finally putting his injuries behind him. Lee takes another step forward with his bat this upcoming season? How about Wallner not having another hamstring injury and getting his OPS back to .800 again? Festa settles in as a high leverage arm like Duran, Jax, and Varland did? Matthews finds greater consistency in 2026 to go along with his high K numbers? These guys are all 27yo and younger. Now, injuries beside, if we DON'T see improvement from the lot of them, we can start to question coaching and approaches. While we all hope Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, K-Pepper, Abel, Prielipp, Morris, etc, all come up and look awesome in their debuts, it's not uncommon for some initial struggles or inconsistencies to begin with. In the history of the Twins alone, for every Puckett, Hrbek, or Mauer that shone immediately, there's a large collection of Gaetti, Hunter, Morneau, Rosie, Viola, etc, who needed a little time to "settle in". If we see this next wave flounder, along with zero improvement from the aforementioned players, THEN we have a real issue. In the meantime, it's really more about some injuries that have slowed a few kids, a couple that were OK but not great, some who are hopefully about ready to break through, and some ready to debut. But we're also ignoring some very good success stories over the past 3-5 years.
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In principle, I like this idea. He appears to be an acceptable 1B...which might be where he plays the most...who can cover 3B once in a while. He's young, inexpensive, controllable, has power, and has room to improve. That all makes sense. One good season out of 2 full seasons and 2 partial seasons for Ober doesn't thrill me, however. So I'm probably going to say pass on this, but it's a practical idea that has some validity. I just don't see a long term fit. While he doesn't have as much power, and would cost more $, you could sign an older version in Miguel Andjuar on a 1yr and keep Ober. And he'd be a better HITTER than Vientos. And you haven't blocked K-Pepper when he's ready...hopefully July...to play SS and 3B/2B, with Lee also being able to cover those same spots as well. And since Clemens actually has played some 3B, I'm still of the idea he should play there some in ST as well in order to be at least an "emergency" option there as well. It's a constructive idea, just not one I'm sold on.
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IMO, 2026 is a work in progress that will have, roughly, 2 sides. Side 1 is opening day. Side 2 is post June 1st and beyond. And I've stated this before. The over/under payroll SEEMS to be about $115M. Based on history, I'm betting slightly over, but that's also a bit of a digression. For the UPTEENTH TIME, I DON'T dislike Larnach. But he just doesn't fit! He needs to be moved in a package deal for a decent pen arm, or traded alone for a prospect, or just let go. He HAS value. But he doesn't FIT the team going forward! This happens if Falvey FINALLY let's go of his paranoid depth issues/trauma. The same for Outman who had no reason to be on anyone's 40 man right now. LF and backup CF is Martin, Roden, and Rodriguez. So why even consider rostering a NO HIT, average at best CF option? Outman is easily cut the next FA signing. Bell is a nice addition. He's better as a DH and part time 1B. And while his deal is about $7M, about $2M of that is tied to a 2027 buyout. But if you want to include the entire contract for 2026, without Larnach, post arbitration the payroll still sits about $93M. It's just math. That leaves approximately $22M to add for a $115M payroll. That leaves $22M for at least 2 solid, veteran relievers to help rebuild the pen initially. But it might also allow the opportunity to add another 1yr bat as well. I go back to the OP: #1] Lee has a lot to prove. He NEEDS to get his BAT and APPROACH right. But he's got the talent and intelligence to be a solid player. Again for the UPTEENTH time, he entered 2025 barely above rookie status. He's still really young and played better defense once he played there daily. He's just NOT the long term SS. That's K-Pepper come June or July. #2] BIG BAT. Well Bell IS a BIG BAT. The question is whether not they add another quality 1B to the team via FA or trade. They might trade for a long term young 1B option, or sign a decent RH 1B option. The options have been presented previously and I'm not going to again get in to previous discussions. But #3 is really interesting to me. Let's think about the FO being smart/accurate and signing 2 or 3 smart choices as BP options. And MAYBE we get one with a Larnach plus prospect trade. And I'm TOTALLY REMOVING another Stewart or Thielbar comparison signing who surprise. Let us talk about the part 2 of the 2026 season where Festa and Prielipp are ready to help the bullpen. And there is an honest chance Festa and Klein might be ready opening day or in early May. Lewis and Raya might follow soon after. You want to discuss HALF MEASURES? I'd counter with a few smart additions to the lineup and the pen and discuss HALF a season where the Twins might look very different post June, July 1st.
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Look, ownership and the FO are a combination here. While I've been very frustrated at times with ownership over the years, at times they've stepped up. Never enough to my liking, and not often enough, but at times they have. And I've never been a big banger on the FO...as they've had their hands tied at times...because Falvey and company have brought about some really, really fun seasons over the past 8 years or so. My "dislike" towards ownership really changed following 2023. It's nice Tom has now stated what a HUGE mistake that was. OK. It's done. Now show me your recent comments hold water going forward. And my occasional disagreements with the FO have really grown over the past couple of seasons...despite the cutbacks that hampered them...for moves made and not made to the point where I've been ready for changes. HOWEVER, I actually believe Falvey really and truly had no idea how to proceed until recently for 2026. I don't know if it's due more to getting the minority owners in place, OR, more to do with the internal squabbles within the Pohlad family and this new reorganization. I think it's more the latter. And I'm not willing to give Falvey and company a PASS for 2026 by any means. But there IS a reality...whether you wish to admit it or not...that nothing was SETTLED until basically mid December. That's a bit of a roadblock towards the offseason and any plans to be made. But do I believe that Falvey and company have warm seats anyway? You bet I do. Now, does that mean massive, sweeping changes are due post 2026 if the team disappoints? I don't know. I guess it depends on whether or not the bottom just drops out, which I'm not exactly expecting. I believe, with a new GM...who's role and power we really don't know at this point...a new manager, and a collection of new coaches, the final record may not even be an indicator of change. We might see a .500 team, give or take, that is fun, interesting, and competitive with rebounds from certain key players, and the debut of top prospects, and solid performances from FA additions, etc. that offers real optimism going forward. OR, we might see a .500 team, give or take, that is fun, interesting, and competitive with rebounds from certain key players, and the debut of top prospects, and yet the team might just look disappointing by being sloppy, or leaving potential wins on the field as losses, etc. *I'm leaving just "tanking" off my projections due to a certain level of optimism and belief of talent on hand. Despite what 2027 may offer in a lockout and negotiations and the such, I believe POST 2026 will STILL require an honest evaluation not so much on the coaching staff, but the OVERALL feel of the trajectory of the team, including the MILB system. Fair or not, Falvey will need to be re-evaluated in his role. The Pohlads may love him, but his BASEBALL vision just might be wrong. So maybe he keeps his job on the BUSINESS side of things, and they decide to bring in a different voice/leader for the BASEBALL side of the operation. So I don't know that Falvey's employment is in question. But I think this is a "hot seat" season for him to prove he can also provide an actual PLAN and VISION for the BASEBALL side of the operation. And honestly, even if the Twins look good in 2026 and have a competitive year, were I an owner, I'd STILL have questions about ONE GUY trying to handle BOTH SIDES of an organization. Even if the Twins have a solid 2026, I'd seriously just remove Falvey from the baseball side and bring in someone else to just run the baseball side of things. In today's market, IMO, it's just too hard to have ONE GUY in charge of so much. So yes, Falvey is on a "hot seat" to prove he can fill dual roles. And while I like a lot of what he's done in his tenure, I've also seen enough that he should be moved permanently to one role, the business side, and bring in someone else to "tweak" what Falvey STARTED and make it better.
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How the Twins Can Still Save the Carlos Correa Trade
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd like this idea better if it was 1yr and not 2. But he had 3 straight. 800+ OPS seasons before 2025. Starting slow and finishing strong is much better than the opposite way around. And the $ works. No need for Larnach any longer, so a drop or trade removes almost $5M. IF you want to include ALL of Bell's deal for 2026...it's really only a little above $5M with the rest part of a 2027 buyout...the payroll sits about $92-93M. If Houston pays half of Walker's deal, he really only costs $10M. So the payroll is $102-103M. I'd say the over/under on payroll is $115M. (I'd bet over, but I digress). That's $12M to spend on a pair of decent, experienced pen arms. Meanwhile, you've added a true 1B with power who hopefully has some gas left, and Bell moves to primary DH. And you haven't blocked anyone in the OF or INF regarding prospects. I don't dislike this idea. It makes some sense and works. But again, I really only like it for 1yr. It's the 2nd year that bothers me. I'd more likely guess they'll either trade for a younger 1B, or sign a less expensive bench option on a 1yr.- 37 replies
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- carlos correa
- christian walker
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I've gone over some various thoughts and ideas since I read the opening post by @Major League Ready. You can agree with my various thoughts, or disagree, and that's fine. But I see some thibgs that actually can be done to win fans back over again. And these are not in any particular order. 1] Treat the fan base as intelligent, informed human beings and stop the BS of incredibly insincere and poorly written statements or foot-in-mouth public statements. So far so good 1st day on the job. 2] I agree with MAKE A PLAN ideas, and I've been screaming that for months now. I want to see a PLAN in place. Tom talks about accountability and making changes as necessary. OK. I am NOT asking for someone's head on a platter. It's too early for that at this point, a hopeful begining of change. But accountability, in this scenario, begins from the head of baseball on down. That means Falvey down to Zoll, and coaches, and instructors within the system. I'M of the belief the team actually has a really solid core that has underperformed, but possesses real talent and potential. And I see reservoir of young talent that has JUST debuted, or is ready to in 2026. DO WE SEE improvement? If not, Falvey should probably be moved to the business side only and bring someone else in with a different vision that will trickle down to Zoll, and coaches, and instructors, etc. PROVE you want accountability. 3] DON'T sell off your talent at the deadline unless it is CLEARLY a baseball decision to do so because the team is floundering. I DON'T expect this to be a lousy team, but there is a difference between playing hard, hanging around .500-ish, and just being BAD. 4] If the 2026 version of the Twins hits the deadline around .500-ish, don't SQUASH opportunity if a move or two might make a difference to raise the bar for a shot at making the playoffs. (Similar to not selling for the sake of selling). 5] I actually agree with Tom Pohlad that just throwing $50-60M more to the payroll TODAY doesn't make sense. First of all, it's already a little late to do so. But ALSO, 2026 is really about taking underperforming talent and getting it PERFORMING better. SECOND, rookies, and near rookies, are poised to be a part of this team, or make their debuts. I am NOT saying rookies and near rookies will suddenly look like stars overnight, but depending on WHAT LIST of prospects, or recent graduates, you want to look at, universally, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalez, K-Pepper, Abel, Prielipp, and Morris are ALL in the top 10-12 and should be part of 2026 at some point. And there might even be a surprise or two. Roden is basically a rookie. Lee was damn near rookie status entering 2025. BUT...don't be CHEAP about 2026...which leads me to... 6] I can see a $115 payroll. But I can also see a $120M payroll with a little Falvey push. And I'm not saying that's great. But ever $M helps. There's an honest idea that Larnach is moved in a package for SOMETHING, that we all hope is a decent, young BP arm of some value. It makes sense. If they CAN’T find a package deal, I'd hope they just cut losses and save his projected $4.7M and free up the $ for someone else. Bell's BAT plays. HOPEFULLY they can mitigate his defense. But he should only be the start. Between the various smart ideas already laid out by posters and TD employees, a Larnach removal either ADDS another BP option, or his complete removal just adds to the $ to spend on FA. But this also adds to.... 7] IF Larnach is moved in a deal for a RP, that's great. If not, frankly, he should be simply let go and let his $ pay forward. Even with a limited payroll, there are intriguing options for the pen. Grab Rogers for $5-6M. Find the best RH arm available for $6-7M. I'm not naming names because there ARE options. The numbers aren't that hard. Even though part of Bell's contract is tied to a buyout in 2027, we can still call it as $7M if we want. Larnach gone, we are STILL only adding $12-13M for the pen. And we're still only in the $105-107M if my math is even close to correct. So don't blink if the FO wants to another bat or BP option. You want to PROVE you have commitment, then don't balk if $115M is pushed to $120M from your FO to make a couple adds that make sense. 8] Extend Jeffers. Maybe others as well. But for example, the Twins have NOTHING beyond Jeffers for the next 2-3 years as a quality catcher. You really want to dip in to FA in 2027 for a catcher option? Why not keep what you have? I'm just offering a LOT of examples of what what Tom Pohlad, the NEW MAN IN CHARGE could do to build a team, but also bring the fan base back. Are the 8 points I brought up hard? Not really. They are consecutive with everything he spoke about. It's up to HIM to actually make these things a reality.
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I think his extremely low RBI numbers are partially due to luck, (poor), as well as opportunity, (lack thereof), as well as his spot in the order. I don't recall exactly how often he hit in the top spots vs the bottom of the order, but he wasn't coming up to the plate with a lot of runners OB, best I can recall. The excitement is more the 20 point increase in AVG and the 30 point increase in OB%. He also looked really good in LF and even made a handful of hilight plays, rather than looking like a confused squirrel looking for a lost walnut. He just looked like a confident, legitimate ML ballplayer. I'm still worried about his lack of pop/power, but he just looked like a much better, more competent hitter in 2025. I don't know if he's a starter in 2026 or a role player. But he actually looks like he might be a solid table setter either in one of the first 2 spots in the order, or in the 9 hole turning the roster over. A year ago, I really had my doubts. I'm cautiously optimistic about him now.
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- bailey ober
- byron buxton
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Wow! Just read a quote from Tom Pohlad stating they basically BLEW IT after the successful 2023 season. I can see more and more the division within the family of Joe being pushed out, unless he's the fall guy, unnamed, for massive mistakes ownership has made. Is this ownership speak? Or is this honesty for the first time?
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I tend to agree with the final record projection. And I agree with optimism for some players rebounding for better 2026 numbers. Chief in that inclusion is Wallner, Lewis, and Ober. But I disagree HOW they came up with their projections. I completely disagree with any positive numbers from Outman and Julien, who I frankly don't know how they possibly make the team. And I disagree in regard to LF. Martin appears to have finally turned a corner as a solid player. And I think Roden is a lot better prospect/player than what he showed as a rookie in a very limited number of PA/AB. Neither is a star player, but they both have some decent potential. But with both Rodriguez and Jenkins sitting at AAA, and I don't want to exclude Gonzalez, there will be a "shift" at some point in 2026 in regard to the OF. And I like Lee better than the ZIPS projections. He was better defensively after the Correa trade when he played his natural position. He's only average, but I can accept that for now. His BAT needs to improve for sure! I don't disagree on the SP side due to depth of arms and potential. I do think they undersold a healthy Ober, however. I do disagree in regard to the bullpen. They give too much credit to the last 2 months. I mean, I HOPE Funderburk has finally turned a corner as he has good stuff. Topa is a decent 7th man, unless he suddenly recaptures his 2023 season. Based on 2024 and the last 2 months of 2025, I do accept Sands as pretty solid. But the pen is a negative, IMO, unless and until we factor in 2 really solid, veteran additions, and move SOMEONE internally to the pen. Probably Festa in a move that makes so much sense I can't believe the Twins haven't already announced it. Yes, anywhere from around 75-85 wins for 2026 is what I'm looking at. Primarily due to the pen, and rebounds from some key performers. But pausing for a moment, Lee's bat improves and he continues to play adequate defense for now, Lewis is healthy and starts to "being Lewis" even if he's not at Superman level, and Wallner is closer to the hitter he was in 2023-24. Sorry ZIPS, but Bell at 1B is a hell of a lot better than France. By the 2nd half of the season, if not before, we see Rodriguez, Jenkins, and K-Pepper. Just like 2023, the prospects start to make a difference. Ober is healthy, and SWR continues the rise we saw last season. WHO takes over the #5 role? The depth is great, and needed. The pen still needs at least 2 solid, quality veteran options to lead the way. But the coaching staff and FO also need to take advantage of the arm talent on hand and make a couple serious moves. Again, Festa could end up as the next great closer in a long line. But he might need some time to slide in to that spot, which is why it's so important to just add a couple solid veterans. And MAYBE Funderburk turned a corner, but I'd sure like another LH FA option for 2026. I'm still a believer in Sands. But I'd feel better if he was the #4 guy entering 2026. I continue to say I can see a path for a solid, competitive 2026 season with upticks from current players, TOP prospects debuting, and a couple smart FA additions. So while I disagree with some of the ZIPS projections, I easily see a bottom end of 75 wins and a top end of 85. I can see injuries and struggles offensively yet again. And I can see an ill conceived bullpen losing games and the Twins are sitting at 70-75 wins. But baseball gods help me, I can see a path with a new manager, a new hitting coach, health and rebounds from Ober, Lewis, Wallner, improvement from Lee, the depth of rotation talent/potential, a few smart moves added to the pen, a couple conversion to the pen, top prospects so close to making an impact, (sigh), I can actually see an 85 win team who could MAYBE reach 90 wins if things break right. Go ahead and call me nuts or crazy. But we have the potential for a very good starting staff with depth. There's a lot of potential in the lineup with guys who underperformed in 2025. We're starting to add more defense and speed in the OF, and potentially in the INF. We have 3 of our top prospects in the OF knocking on the door. And K-Pepper is not far away in the INF. I'm really not crazy. We could have a poor team who underperforms in 2026 and just busts. But if you really look at the "potential" of this team, and the prospects almost ready, and add a couple smart moves, making the playoffs is not a dream.
- 17 replies
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- bailey ober
- byron buxton
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Miguel Sanó Finds a New Chapter in Japan
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Good for him. Hope this means he still loves the game. But even if he does really well, considering age, I'm not sure this is a ticket back to MLB.

