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Everything posted by DocBauer
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I wanted Bell last season, but I'm not so excited about this year. IIRC, he didn't have a very good start to 2025 but then rebounded and finished pretty strong, more in keeping with his normal production. But he's best as a DH. And that's fine by me. The problem comes sometime after June 1st when Rodriguez and/or Jenkins might be ready. Wallner is a perfect, primary DH who's gradually improved some against LHP. We might be surprised by Hoskins, but I'm betting he's toast after a pair of sub par seasons. I'd be very happy with O'Hearn as the every day 1B. He fills that spot, as well as a solid bat in the lineup. But I keep seeing speculation that he's going to be signed for around $12M. While that's do-able for the Twins, I don't think it's the smartest play. I am still pounding the table for Nathaniel Lowe. He's almost exactly 2yrs younger than O'Hearn, is a solid 1B, and is projected to come in at $2-3M less than O'Hearn on a deal. While O'Hearn has been on an OPS "high" the past couple of seasons, and Lowe's OPS slipped in 2025, for their career quad slash line, Lowe beats O'Hearn in all 4 categories, though the differences are rather negligible. They posses about the same power ability, and Lowe has better career numbers against LHP. O: .217/ .287/ .355/ .642 L: .258/ .337/ .392/ .729 Yes, Lowe is coming off a down 2025 season...even though he still produced some decent power and RBI numbers...but who would you rather have? A 32yo for $12M...even riding a bit of a "hot streak" the past couple of seasons...or a less expensive 30yo with better career OPS, and a much better career mark against same side pitching? Maybe I'll be proven wrong but I'd take Lowe at 2yrs and $18-20M every day of the week, and twice on Sunday at this point.
- 26 replies
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- ryan ohearn
- josh bell
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So we get another young catcher to develop for the future. I don't have a problem with that. I'm just really surprised there wasn't a AA...maybe recent AAA promotion...arm that threw hard but was missing a 3rd pitch or had some control issues that didn't look like a draft and stash for the pen. Question is now what? Trade Larnach in a package for someone's young 4th or 5th pen arm with potential? Sign 2 decent, solid pen arms to actual ML deals? A 1B of decent quality? Lowe maybe? That might just about do it...not inuding the usual MILB signings...unless there's a couple $M somehow left over for a reserve INF or 3rd FA pen arm?
- 85 replies
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- daniel susac
- aaron rozek
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No matter how much depth you have, there will always be bullpen games here and there, and some prospect brought up who's not quite ready, or some AAA singing who gets a shot, or some different version of an opener and pen game. It happens for EVERYONE at some point. It's just the marathon that is MLB. So "how many starters" the Twins should have is arbitrary to be sure. BUT, the rotation begins with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, and a competition of Bradley, Matthews, Abel, and Morris. I had thought Bradley had no options remaining, but brief research has shown me he has 1 more option remaining. Personally, I think a lot of people are sleeping on Morris. He did have a mediocre 1st half of 2025 before he had an injury stint. But it was also discovered that he was unintentionally tipping his pitches early in the season due to a bizarre gum chewing habit. (If you can believe something so weird). And he was borderline excellent the rest of 2025. That's 8 quality arms of experience or young talent not yet proven. That's not a bad way to start a season. Rojas and CJ Culpepper are behind those 8, but might be real options later in the season. That might be the envy of a lot of ML teams. But notice I left out 2 very important arms. I hate, hate, hate the idea of Festa and Prielipp NOT being potential SP arms for the Twins. IF Festa gets that 4th offering under control and can be at least decent the 3rd time through the lineup, and IF Prielipp can do the same, and build up his IP, what great rotation arms they might be! But then reality starts to settle in. SOMETIMES a really good pitcher, even WITH a 4th offering, is just destined for the bullpen. And in today's game, the pen has greater value than it ever had before. I know Festa has flashed. I know he's been very good the 1st and even 2nd time through a lineup. And ANY young pitcher has to learn to adjust to a 3rd time through an order, but maybe he's just not built to do that. Maybe he's just ready to dominate as a late inning reliever the way Duran did, and the way Varland looked like he was becoming. And that's what I'm seeing happening. I grudgingly admit to the idea of bullets in the chamber for some young arms that have had injury issues. But Prielipp was fully healthy in 2025 for the first time in YEARS. And like Festa, he's not exactly old. But might he follow the Santana and Lirano path where he starts in a ML bullpen and then moves to the rotation? The fact that Falvey mentioned him as a pen option tells me they believe he can be a potential dominate arm there. He might begin 2026 as a 4 IP type of pitcher to keep him stretched out. Or they just might have him as a 1-2 IP option who is a potential late reliever. If Prielipp turns out to be a dominate late inning reliever, do we care? Are we angry at all that he didn't turn out to be a quality SP despite his history? Again, I hate the idea of Festa and Prielipp NOT being quality SP for the Twins. But it's also not hard to love them being part of the 2026 bullpen and beyond, at some point, along with Sands, Funderburk, Klein, Lewis, Raya, Bragg, Whitaker, MaCleod, Ohl, Adams etc, etc, as well as a couple veteran FA options for immediate help in 2026. But back to the OP, it's really not hard to be excited about SP depth of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Bradley, Matthews, Abel, Morris, and Rojas and CJ Culpepper bringing up the rear.
- 23 replies
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- zebby matthews
- david festa
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I have to disagree, Cody. Ober is not old, doesn't have a ton of miles on his arm, isn't expensive, and his hip issue is what messed up his season. The question remains if his mechanics slipped and messed up his hip, or did he hurt his hip and it messed up his mechanics and everything else along with it? We have a chicken and egg arguement here. We have yet to hear a single word that Ober's injury requires anything other than an offseason of reat and normal rehab. I see his value, based on previous, healthy production and low $ as being of great value to the Twins. More than moving him would add. And while I feel really positive about the progression of SWR, Bradley and Matthews are both a bit of a question mark entering 2026. Abel looks SO CLOSE to being about ready. And I think a lot of people are selling Morris short based on his 2nd half of 2025 after an injury stint, and realizing he was accidentally tipping pitches early on. In my heart of hearts, I really wanted Festa to be a great story of a late round draftee who turned in to a quality SP. And maybe I'm wrong...he's still "young" and has flashed...but considering how dominant he is ONE TIME through a lineup, and still solid the SECOND time, and his build and remaining stamina questions, and his shoulder issues in 2025, I just think he's on a "Duran" path of moving to the bullpen. OBVIOUSLY, most SP, especially young ones, have some struggles learning and adapting to being able to handle a lineup the 3rd time. It's just a fact. And a single season of shoulder issues shouldn't be a single indicator of a young arm moving to the pen. But when you combine all factors together, Festa is just a logical move to the pen where he might prove to be a dominant arm. IMO, that's where he should be for 2026 and beyond. The rotation still has Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, and then open competition between Bradley, Matthews, Abel, and Morris. Behind them is Rojas and CJ Culpepper. That's an enticing group. 1B SHOULD be Lowe on a 2yr $18-20M deal and 1B is solid for the next 2yrs and you don't have to move ANY arms. His FIT is so PERFECT for the Twins it's almost crazy they haven't made the move yet. And it's time to move on from Larnach and let Martin, Roden, Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Gonzalez...all younger, cheaper, and with more potential...fill out the OF. Package him to a team in need of someone with a career .759 OPS against RHP that has a solid young pen arm they are willing to move for him and a decent prospect or two. That also removes his projected $4.7M off the payroll. Be creative! Then ADD a couple veteran RP for around $11-12M. Do I have to repeat the options AGAIN in ANOTHER OP? Or can we just accept status quo at this point? Post arbitration, Larnach moved in whatever fashion...help of prospects...the payroll sits about $85-86M. Lowe at $10M, and the aforementioned FA RP, the payroll only sits about $106M roughly. WHY trade young pitching of any sort where even a PALTRY $110M payroll could make a very solid addition to the lineup and the pen, and could possibly have enough room for 1 more add on a low $ deal for the BP or INF? To quote the famous Chris Carter line: "come on man!" Your own TOD podcast provided a very sound idea...swapping Goldschmidt for Lowe...that makes more sense than trading away arm talent on hand.
- 50 replies
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- pablo lopez
- joe ryan
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Why Minnesota Twins Should Sign Miguel Andujar
DocBauer replied to Cory Moen's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've been championing Lowe as a signing for WEEKS now in just about every single thread that deals with 2026. Just repeating everything you've said, and I've said, he's a solid glove and a solid producer for his career. And he doesn't have to be platooned either. I just can't understand why so many are obsessed with a RH 1B? I mean, I'd be just fine if we actually GOT a RH 1B...assuming he could also hit RHP...but 75% of all pitchers are still RH. I would have zero problem offering a solid 30yo 1B a 2yr deal. He won't turn 31yo until July. I'm not aware of any injury history. He stabilizes the INF, he adds a quality bat that could hit anywhere from 3rd to 6th depending on how Shelton wants to build the lineup, and he blocks NOBODY. Unless the payroll turns out to be ridiculous, 2yrs at $18-20M fits easily in to even a $110M payroll. And he FIXES the most GLARING HOLE in the entire lineup for 2yrs. He's basically Naylor junior, and that isn't a bad thing. There are various roster scenarios where Andujar can be added for about $6M that work. Especially IF the Twins keep Rodriguez and Jenkins down in St Paul to begin the 2026 season. And I LIKE the idea of bringing Andujar on board as a nice RH role piece. I can see the fit, and I can see how it works. But Falvey should have Lowe's agent on speed dial and get something done ASAP. He fits position need, lineup need, and fits easily in to anything but an ABSURD payroll structure. -
Kody Clemens: A Good Player in the Wrong Role?
DocBauer replied to Adam Friedman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Had his best ML season at 29yo to be a slightly below average player. He helps as a LH power threat off the bench who can play 4 spots, or 5 if the Twins begin working him at 3B again, at least for emergency purposes. But he should never, ever be discussed as a starting player. Period. End of story. When does Falvey finally realize 1B is an important spot to ADD to your lineup, and not a throw away spot? -
He can't hit, he can't get on base, his power has virtually disappeared, he doesn't steal bases, and apparently he can't play defense any longer. He also can't be optioned, can't even perform at AAA, and he's about out of time as a 29yo. But yeah, he sure deserves a spot on the 40 man doesn't he? Probably never should have been traded for. But if you wanted to take a shot to see if a change in scenery could unlock something, OK. But he's already proven he has no game and no future. His spot should have been given to another, younger player, or simply be an open spot for a rule 5 selection. A 29yo who is awful should never be kept for any reason over a young player that actually has some potential.
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1] Don't trade any of Lopez. Ryan, Buxton, or Jeffers. But feel free to move Larnach with a prospect or two in a deal for a decent, young pen arm. 2] Honestly don't know if I care all that much about who the new minority owners might be. All I care about is the final result. Does their investment eliminate debt and allow for even a mediocre payroll? 3] They need at least a pair of veteran RP to help lead and solidify the pen. The FO needs to pick the correct 2 as there are lots of options, inuding in their projected price point range. But they need to make smart/good/lucky choices 4] Why is everyone so focused on a RH hitting 1B? Just because Clemens...a utility player...bats LH? If they find a quality RH 1B I don't have a problem with that. But what if they had a switch hitter, or LH hitter who had good splits against LHP? I mean, aren't 75% of all pitchers still RH? BONUS]: If there's a legitimate arm with potential that could be a nice fit for the pen with the #4 selection in the rule 5 draft, go ahead and take a shot. Or perhaps a younger player than Fitzgerald with potential as a utility player and backup SS?
- 38 replies
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- byron buxton
- joe ryan
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If THE CORE is keeping Buxton, Lopez, Ryan, Jeffers, and some other, younger, cost controlled players them I'm 100% on board. If you consider THE CORE to be a repeat of the exact same team from the previous 2 seasons, I'm not on board. But I also think that's a bit of a fallacy. Martin and Roden get first crack at LF to improve defense and team speed. Wallner may, or may not, be starting in RF depending on whether the Twins keep Rodriguez and/or Lopez down at St Paul to begin the season. Keaschall was not part of the team opening day last season. WHOEVER wins the #5 spot in the rotation either wasn't with the Twins opening day last season, and perhaps not even in the organization. Personally, I still don't buy Larnach with the team opening day. I think he "sets the floor" for now and will be moved. But even still, as a DH and not starting OF, I couldn't complain all that much. But there are definitely changes from opening day 2025 to opening day 2026 in the works. And that's a good thing. A shakeup was warranted. FWIW, I believe there will be 2 different "parts" to the Twins 2026 season. There will be the roster that opens, and then "part 2" begins when we start to see Rodriguez, Jenkins, K-Pepper, and hopefully Gonzalez making their debut. (There may be additional prospects/arms included). Hopefully, there won't be a "part 3" where trades happen to break down the team. I will state essentially what I said in a different post in that every team begins each season with the need for some things to go "right" in order to have a good season. Some teams have long lists, and some teams have shorter lists. But they all have them. I believe in 26yo Lewis, playing good defense and running the bases the 2nd half of 2025, as a step up player in 2026. I believe in Wallner rebounding to something much closer to his 2023-24 self. I believe the 25yo Lee will take a step forward in 2026, but how big of one is TBD. I have faith Lopez and Ober will enjoy far healthier 2026 seasons. And while I don't expect everyone to take the world by storm when they debut, I can't help but be excited about the prospects...bats and arms...that project to begin in St Paul. IF the FO actually has SOME payroll flexibility, I can see additions that might be enough to make a difference. A trade of MILB talent for a 1B would be awesome. But if they want to hold on to said prospects, might they not still fill the 1B hole decently with someone Iike Nathaniel Lowe for $9M? (Solid career numbers-go look). And spend another $11-12M ish for a pair of veteran RP such as Coulombe/Thielbar/Rogers as a LH option and perhaps Finnigan as a RH. (Examples, not the only options). This might be accomplished even with a ridiculously low $110M ish payroll. I'm not naive enough to believe arms on hand, arms signed, and arms converted (EX: Festa) will rebuild a high end bullpen in a single offseason. But I can see a path where a competent pen might be assembled. It's a new season with a new manager and some new coaches. There will be a handful of new players when all is said and done. And there will be some interesting promotions and debuts from young talent at some point. And I like the rotation and the other factors I've already mentioned. I just refuse to see the talent on hand, granted some needing upticks or rebounds, and the young talent assembled and nearly ready, and decide we should just give up on 2026 before it even begins. So yeah, I'm in favor of keeping "the core" together if it means Lopez, Ryan, Buxton, and Jeffers begining 2026 as Twins.
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I know that talent on hand, talent set to debut this season, any kind of average bullpen rebuild, the 2026 Twins aren't the team we watched the last 2 months of 2025. Every team begins the season with a list of a few things that need to go right whether that list is short or long is a different matter. The 2026 Twins do need a few things to go right. But the reality is a majority of the team are being paid about $7M or far less for 2026. So even a ridiculously small payroll of around $110M could still allow for a handful if smart, solid additions that could make a difference next season. For instance, a competent 1B, and a pair of solid, veteran pen arms to help lead the way. So I do believe the Twins are capable of 80-85 wins in 2026 if a few things go right, (no major injuries, a couple guys take a step forward), and ownership gives the FO at least a little breathing room to make a few solid additions. Doesn't mean they can't fall to pieces or underperform. That happens every season for some teams. But I can see reasons why this team could win between 80-85 next year, and that's why I object so strongly to the "blow it up and start over" mantra that I read in some articles and posts. I think that only happens if ownership forces the issue.
- 118 replies
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- byron buxton
- pablo lopez
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While Nick has a bit of grudging optimism, I'm in agreement with @Riverbrianthat I don't believe this team is that far from being decent, if not fairly good. (Paraphrasing slightly). I'm dismissing both Fangraphs projection of 82 wins, and the Twins falling short in previous seasons. EVERY SINGLE SEASON is an entity unto itself. And every season should be treated as such. While a born optimist, when I take a good, hard look at the Twins TODAY, I see holes, of course. But I also a lot of really good, hopeful, even projected options that can make the Twins a solid team in 2026. YES, a few things need to break right, but those "things" aren't crazy, "fairy godmother" issues with a wish and a prayer. DO the Twins have a couple...maybe three...TOP OF THE ROTATION arms? You bet they do. And how many seasons in the past years could we say that? DO the Twins have a really nice collection of talented arms to fill in the last 2-3 spots and some depth? You bet they do! Now, granted, not all of those arms...still young and mostly inexperienced... have proven themselves fully, but the talent and potential are there. Is there offensive potential available? Despite some bad performances and question marks, the answer is YES. Lewis is STILL only 26yo and just played the most games of his career. Despite not being able to maintain his brief glimpses of SUPERMAN status previously, he was still league average or above the last half of the 2025 season, improved his defense, and was healthy enough to start running again. You want to give up on him at this point? Sure Lee needs to raise his game up a couple notches, but he was a near-rookie at 24yo in 2025 and was a top draft choice and top prospect for a reason. Whether he changes positions or becomes a super INF utility player, do you want to give up on him already? Wallner might be best as a DH, hopefully soon, but 2 previous .880 OPS seasons and then a bad 2025 where he was still above league average shouldn't dismiss what he's shown he can do. Buxton is a STUD. Jeffers is one of the best offensive catchers in MLB. I look at that foundation, and I can't help but believe the offense has a decent start with a little better/continued health and some natural growth and development. And then I look at Martin's sudden improvement, and what we've seen of Keaschall, and I get a little more excited, and a little more optimistic. And then I look a little farther down, and I see Rodriguez and Jenkins just about to break through to the ML level, and I'm even more excited! Oh, BTW, there's a real chance K-Pepper will be ready by mid season to be an even better SS than Lee...moving him to a different role...with even better offense! And wait, did I forget to mention the RH bat of Gonzalez that should be up at SOME POINT in 2026? Not everyone will be great the minute they debut. It seldom works out that way. But FOUR of the Twins best position player prospects are already at AAA or about to debut there. REASONS for offensive optimism that aren't just wishes. But the biggest issue remains the pen. I feel almost dirty hoping for a $120M payroll for 2026. It would still be about $20M less than opening day 2025. Imagine how filthy I feel begging for a $110M payroll instead? They trade Larnach and a prospect or two and grab a solid young BP arm from someone who really needs an above average LH bat against RHP. It's imaginative, and what they should be looking to do, and what I suspect they are hoping to do. And what I hope they do. Then they spend about $7M ish for someone like Fairbanks, Jansen, or Finnegan as the closer, or Fireman at least. And how about $3-4M for Thielbar, Coulombe, Rogers, coming back, or Chaffin, who ALL had quality 2025 seasons, as a LH option to supplement the sudden improvement of Funderburk. This builds, potentially, a ML AVERAGE BP at least with what's on hand with Sands, Topa, Funderburk Ohl, Adams, Lewis, and possible transition pieces like Prielipp, Raya, Lewis, And we can't disregard the SP depth of arm talent on hand making the transition. But as much as I want Festa to be a quality top of the rotation starter, I just don't know that it's meant to be. His SSS career numbers say he's great through the order 2 times. But isn't that the case for almost any SP early in their career? But considering his build, his stuff, his recent shoulder issues...that seem to be fixed...he should absolutely be in the pen mix for 2026. The bitch is, the Twins could have a $110M payroll and move Larnach for something, add a couple really decent arms, and STILL ADD a 1B like Lowe, and maybe add a secondary bat for depth, and be a solid team.
- 118 replies
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- byron buxton
- pablo lopez
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Why Minnesota Twins Should Sign Miguel Andujar
DocBauer replied to Cory Moen's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I want to reflect back for a moment on the recent TWINS OFF DAILY podcast where they built a roster based on a $110M payroll. I think it's pertinent to this discussion. While that's an obscenely small payroll. It's also realistic. They have Larnach being moved with other prospects...I don't believe they were ever named...for a young RP from the Phillies, Orion Kerkering, who the fans there may want run out of town. Whether or not THAT trade is feasible doesn't matter directly, it's exactly the TYPE of move the Twins should make for somewhat obvious reasons. Next, they had the the Twins signing RH 1B Goldschmidt for around $9M. The idea is sound in principle, but I object to the idea. I understand the weakness facing LHP, but I don't want a 1B ONLY because he's RH. So I'm going to continue to bang the drum for Nathaniel Lowe for the same $9-10M! Even in a down season from his career numbers, he still produced 44 XB and 84 RBI. His career marks in the TRIPLE SLASH LINE are better than 2025, he's still only 30yo, and with solid career splits against LHP, he DOESN'T HAVE to be platooned. And we can stop the nonsense of Clemens being the primary starting 1B and let him be a utility LH bat player. But all of that brings us back around to Andujar. Their consensus was to sign him for $6M as a DH who CAN play 4 spots even though you'd want him to be a primary DH. And on that principle, I like him as an addition. It really makes a ton of sense. He's a solid bat who helps deepen the lineup, adds some RH punch needed against LHP, wouldn't be expensive, and with his experience, can at least play mediocre defense here and there at 4 spots when the lineup needs to be shuffled a bit for days off, late game switches, etc. My only concern is total roster construction. With Andujar, Clemens, and Fitzgerald all on the roster...and Larnach gone as proposed, and I agree...your OF is Wallner, Buxton, Martin, and Roden, with Clemens and possibly Andujar getting a few appearances here and there. While potentially weak in regard to backup CF, that OF works to begin the season if Rodriguez and Jenkins are held back initially. However, at some point, Rodriguez, Jenkins, and possibly even Gonzalez are going to be ready for their debuts. And that sort of scrambles the OF/DH situation. So does Andujar still make sense at that point? I guess I'd say YES, as injuries happen, option demotions are a factor, and as pointed out previously, maybe Andujar becomes a trade option mid season if good health FINALLY happens for the Twins, and the kids are up and doing well. So I think this is a potentially solid move for a helpful bat. At least to begin the season, and then see what happens. You can't build a roster only based on the idea of everything going right. You have to attempt to build the Opening Day roster FIRST, and go from there. And I like this idea quite a bit. FWIW, the TOD roster construction, AFTER trading Larnach as part of a deal for a young pen arm, adding a 1B, adding Andujar, they still had room for a pair of solid RP for around $11-12M with a couple $M for breathing room. So this whole concept of Andujar as a RH DH and role player would seem to not only make sense, but fits in to a WAY TOO LOW $110M payroll that might still work. -
My response is both YES and NO to the OP. They need GOOD LH OF, and they have some pretty interesting ones on hand, and two that should be removed. The recent TWINS OFF DAY podcast put together a very interesting $110M forecast for 2026 that included Larnach being moved...with an additional asset or two...to the Phillies to bring in young pen arm Orion Kerkering who many not exactly be welcome back in Philadelphia after a major error that may have ended their season. Unless I missed it somewhere, I don't recall them ever stating what the other piece(s) in the deal were. But that's the kind of thinking the FO should be looking at. Larnach is NOT bad player. But he only sets a floor for the Twins at this point, and might be more valuable for another team. Outman ONLY makes sense if both Rodriguez and Jenkins begin 2026 in AAA. He could be a temporary 4-5th OF until promotions take place. I'm on record as saying I'd give RF to Rodriguez for opening day if he has a decent, healthy ST, and just live with some growing pains. If they need to send him down at some point. I'd rather do that in June instead of July or August. And Outman should ONLY be a temporary player at best. So that kind of eliminates 2 of the proposed "glut". I think it's a mistake to be down on Roden after a very brief rookie debut that was cut short by injury. He's solid defensively at the corners, has experience at 1B and shouldn't be dismissed there, and can cover CF on occasion. Offensively he profiles as a decent hitter with some power and has decent speed. Very doubtful he has STAR potential, but he could be a really useful player. Maybe a LH version of old favorite Lew Ford? Mendez moving to 1B is the kind of imaginative thinking I've been begging the FO to consider. He's average at best in the OF but has an interesting bat? Then put him at 1B and see if you've got something there! Although they are RH, do the same thing with Gonzalez and Rosario. I am fully on board for the Twins added a FA 1B for 2026. There simply aren't any obvious, internal choices at the moment. My choice would be Nathaniel Lowe. I don't care that he bats LH. 75% of the league throws RH, and he has solid career splits against LHP. He's not a STUD, but he's a really solid player. Only 30yo, I'd be willing for a 2yr deal to just settle 1B for the short term. He easily fits in to a payroll of $110M. But quit "shoving" the likes of Arraez and the such at 1B and just tell them to do the best they can. Start being imaginative at the MILB level. Regarding Clemens, please stop telling us what a great "value" he was. He did a solid job. He's not bad as a LH power hitter who can play 4 spots, and maybe 5 if he can be a competent, emergency 3B, which he's played in the minors. But he should NEVER be considered as a potential starter anywhere. He's a decent, solid bench option that you hope to replace a year from now. Period. Regarding the whole Red Sox/Ryan rumors and scenarios. I absolutely, positively don't want to move Ryan. (Or Lopez). But I'm not going to go on another rant about my feelings on the potential of the team with a few smart moves, etc, etc. IF such a trade were made, there's nothing wrong with adding a quality, experienced LH OF. At least in theory. But is that really the smart play when you have TWO top 50 prospects who have tremendous talent...not proven yet, granted...who you haven't even debuted yet? I'm all about adding talent in any proposed trade. But why not actually SEE if the TOP prospects you've been nurturing, and are very close, and could have multiple years of control ahead of them, are what they might actually be before you add another option? Outman should be gone soon, if not immediately. But if Rodriguez and Jenkins are held back for a while, I guess he might have a temporary bench role. Larnach should be moved. Be smart. Be creative. Add a prospect or two, and add someone who can help the club. Maybe the previously mentioned move to the Phillies for Kerking isn't really so crazy. Wallner should be the primary DH sooner rather than later. He could really excel in that area, and still be a competent backup corner OF here and there. Roden has a chance to be a solid, versatile, and fairly productive role player. Clemens should be a role player, NOT a starting player. Mendez should be playing a lot of 1B going forward. Too many LH OF? YES and NO. Move one, get rid of another ASAP, move one to 1B, and see what you have with the other 3.
- 32 replies
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- matt wallner
- walker jenkins
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I really don't like this OP. It's WAY TOO SOON to even be talking about this! It's really another version of the Berrios trade. Has Berrios been good for the Jays? Yes. Has he been a STUD? No. But has SWR turned out to be a solid ML SP who has shown potential? Yes. Has Martin finally started to look like a solid player? Also yes. Does it matter if BOTH teams got a good return? We're AT LEAST 2yrs before we can determine who WON a trade. But since I'm a sucker for Twins commentary, I guess I'm going to have to make some comments. 1] I didn't like Stewart for Outman simply because I thought Stewart might help the 2026 pen. Lose-lose for for both teams and it doesn't matter. 2] Paddack, an impending FA who wasn't coming back for a decent catching prospect with some solid potential behind the plate and AT the plate? WIN. 3] Coulombe for a younger LHP who MIGHT make it, but also might just become a solid LHRP, sort of "replacing" Coulombe in the future? And we can still resign Coulombe this offseason? WIN. 4] Bader, an impending FA looking for a better deal that wasn't coming back...especially with 3 top 10 OF prospects scheduled to debut in 2026...for an interesting LH OF/1B option with potential, and a low A flier? Gotta say WIN again. Here is where it gets tough. 5] Jax for Bradley. I think Jax was undervalued due to a weird season where he was great, but also had weird inconsistentcy and bad luck. While still very young and talented, Bradley is a WILD CARD in regard to his future. No insult to him, but will he mature with a new organization that will work with him and he will accept new ideas and coaching to be a top 1-3 rotation arm? Or is he destined to be a BP arm who is a talented setup man or potential closer? I'm saying NUETRAL on him until I see improvement. He might be a younger Jax replacement. 6] I'm a big fan of Castro. He was a tremendous find for the FO. I'm hoping they can find someone even close to what he was this offseason. But somewhere along the line, in 2025 he became more of an OF and less of an INF option. Was that Baldelli? Or was it an erosion of his glove? I really don't know. But I think I'd trust him more, slightly, than Fitzgerald at this point, with no disrespect. Gallagher was a 6th round pick by the Cubs in 2024 who didn't play pro ball until 2025 wherr he reached AA status and he did OK as a 22yo "rookie". He's actually a fairly solid prospect. Armstrong is just a big, strong kid with limited potential who needs to move to move to the pen with any hope. Considering Castro wasn't going to be resigned, and with SOME potential in Gallagher, I'd say NUETRAL at this point. 7] Varland for Roden and Rojas. I wouldn't have made this move. I think the controllable Varland would have been the best arm in the 2026 bullpen. Roden has potential to be a solid player. His limited pro debut shouldn't discount him. He's got a nice set of skills to make him a valuable 4th OF or potential 1B even. And he wouldn't be the 1st rookie to struggle in a SSS. But this trade reality comes down to the potential of Rojas. Despite being pushed to AAA unnecessarily by the Twins and initial poor results reflect his potential, or is he a young arm they really believe will thrive in the future based on potential? I want to say the Twins lost on this one, but what if Roden becomes a solid bench player and a year from now Rojas looks like a really nice rotation arm? My initial grade is a LOSS. But this COULD be a win a year from now. 8] Duran for Tait and Abel. How can you possibly expect to WIN a trade when you move a talent like Duran for prospects? And I suppose it all depends on who the Twins sign in FA, and how the talent on hand translates to the bullpen. Duran was only a prospect until he wasn't. Same with Jax. Same with Varland. Same with so many past Twins closers and top setup arms in the history of the Twins. But it's also hard to acquire 2 top 100 prospects in Tait and Abel and say the Twins blew a trade. I'm really torn on this one. I can see Festa, maybe Bradley, suddenly taking over Duran's role. And IF that happens then the Twins do win this trade. It's really hard to see a WIN here right now. I'm FORCED to say NUETRAL for NOW because Duran is so damn good, but there's enough talent on hand to potentially replace him. Who was he before he became a stud? Who was Perkins or Nathan before they became who they were? 8] I HONESTLY can't believe I'm saying this as I became a big fan of the man and the player, but are we better off without Correa? I just recently turned 60yo. Between radio and limited TV, Smalley was my youth SS. And he was damn good. But Gagne was the best SS, undervalued, I've seen in my 50 plus years watching the Twins. And then Correa came on board. I've seldom seen anyone play SS the way he did with the Twins. He was so good, so smart, and when healthy, he put up some of his best numbers as a Twin. And he was so ENGAGED as a Twin that he knew knew the prospects in the system. But is it possible that the Twins only got to see a glimpse of his previous talent interrupted by injury? It appears that might be the case. And that's really unfortunate. But whatever his future might hold, $20M of his contract is off the books. Some have speculated he might have had a negative affect on younger players per his expirations. I have no clue about that. I just know that when he was healthy he was awesome in the field and quality at the plate. But sometimes things just don't work out. So this trade might just work out if the Twins re-invest his deal for 2026. It's really, really hard to call anything here. But IF they can spend the $20M GAIN in the trade, it MIGHT be a win.
- 74 replies
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- carlos correa
- louis varland
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I'm going to yea to Finnegan and no to the others. He offers up the most upside to stabilize the pen and is the closest projected salary...as presented here...to what the Twins MIGHT be able to afford. Weaver is WAY too expensive and as pointed out, Khanle lacks some OOMPH in his velocity and there could be some residual bad feeling between him and Hawkins. But here's the #1 problem Matt... though I appreciate your thoughts...Addison Reed and his 2yr $16M deal remains the biggest deal thus FO has signed a RP for, and we know how that turned out. If memory serves, since then, the most they have paid a reliever in any given season was $4 or $4.5M. And I think that's really more the target zone we have to be looking at. If there was ANY way they could grab Finnegan for $5M, the Twins should JUMP at that for 1yr. I'm just not sure they can get him for that, but it sure would be nice to do so. I'm just not certain it's a realistic hope. I haven't had time to peruse the normal, looong list of available RHRP to offer up solid options. But I've heard Ian Hamilton's name mentioned. He had 2 good years with the Yankees but slipped some in 2025. But did he really? ERA for a RP is a very tenuous thing. His hits per 9 was actually better in 2025 than 2024, but he BB went up, and he still K'd over 9 per. I've heard Ryan Pressly mentioned. IIRC, he was actually very good the first 2-2 1/2 months of 2025 and then suddenly slid. Is he toast? Or is there an adjustment to be made that might get him back on track for at least 1 more solid season? I recently read a partial fluff, partial series idea of brining in the Rogers Twins. And while it would be a tremendous story, it's also a very interesting idea to fill the Twins pen needs. Combined, they'd offer a pair of veteran pieces coming off solid seasons that could help from both sides for a speculated, combined $9M-ish. There is hope and potential for Raya, Lewis, and Klein to be quality pen arms that are transitioning from the rotation. This is nothing new for the Twins who have a great history of doing so. But most all the previous arms that have done so have also had experience...with very mixed results...at the ML level before they transitioned successfully to the pen. Does that mean a rookie CAN'T make an immediate transition and do well? Absolutely not. But you really want a couple experienced veterans to help lead the way IF you have ANY idea of being a competitive team in 2026. If they're serious about moving Prielipp to the pen, then Festa also has to be considered. History says he's borderline awesome ONCE through a lineup, and pretty good the second time. But that's when he starts to be questionable. That doesn't mean he can't improve and develop in to a solid ML SP. But take those results, pure stuff, need, opportunity, and his recent shoulder injury, and he's a PERFECT candidate to be the next Varland/Jax, and MAYBE the next Duran. So again, if they're serious about Prielipp, why not Festa? And let's say the last 2 months of Funderburk was actually a turning point for him. How about a veteran LH option to help lead the way and help stabilize the pen? While long in the tooth, Coulombe, Rogers, Chaffin, and Thielbar ALL had quality 2025 seasons. Why not one of them for $3-4M on a 1yr? And why not THREE LH options in the pen? It was a luxury the Twins had in the early '00 when Gardenhire managed some very good teams. But the pen really needs a solid veteran RH arm to work along side Festa, in MY scenario, along with Sands, Orze, Topa, Ohl, and Adams, along with the new converts to help bridge the gap for the likes of Raya, Lewis, Klein, and others. Finnegan would be ideal. I just think payroll is going to indicate a lower cost option. I'm just not sure who that is right now.
- 19 replies
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- luke weaver
- kyle finnegan
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Cody, I think your pretty close if the season started TOMORROW. But doesn't it also depend on whether Falvey continues to hold on to his precious "depth" MO instead of playing the best, and younger, talent on hand? Just my opinion: OF: Martin, Buxton, Rodriguez, and Wallner as the primary DH and backup corner OF. Larnach is moved, and Outman has a small chance, but more on him later. And this changes June/July 1st-ish when Jenkins is ready. (Gonzalez probably later in the season). INF: Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, and Fitzgerlad as utility/SS depth. Why not open up 1B to Roden and Fedko to compete and share 1B and ALSO be 4th OF if they both look like they can stick? Clemens then backs up 4 or 5 spots as a utility player. Outman has a chance to begin the season...ugh...as a backup OF if either Roden or Fedko don't stick. And do we really need to see more of Julien and just keep him because he's put of options? And we add another quality piece of the puzzle around July 1st when K-Pepper is ready. CATCHER: Jeffers and Jackson. ROTATION: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, and Bradley. But Bradley has a lot to prove to me still. And I believe he's got an option remaining. And there's depth and competition with Matthews, Abel, and Morris. BULLPEN: Funderburk, Prielipp, Festa, Sands, Orze, Topa, Klein, and Ohl/Adams in a shootout. If they're serious about Prielipp moving to the pen, then they have to be serious about placing Festa there as well based on success 2 times through the rotation and his shoulder issues this past season. Klein has solid stuff and good K potential. Just my opinion based on today's candidates and options.
- 77 replies
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- ryan jeffers
- kody clemens
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Left Field Could Surprise Next Season
DocBauer replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Sorry if I'm going to again repeat comments I've stated previously, but they are part of this discussion. LF, IMO, is also impacted by RF. But LF first. Stick with me here! Martin seemed to have a breakthrough at AAA last season, and it's just really unfortunate he was plaged early with a bad hamstring injury. We can say his 2 months as a productive and primary player is a SSS, but I'm not sure I buy that based on previous ML experience, and improvement not only with the glove, but also his bat at both levels. If we don't see a big regression, I like Martin to open in LF. He would seem to provide a major upgrade defensively over anyone who has been there the last few years, excepting Bader of course. He also increases team speed and baserunning, which is also a positive. Maybe I'm a little old fashioned, and I do believe in giving the most AB to your best hitters, but I also believe there is value in an "old school" approach to giving pitchers fits, and getting runners on base for your BEST hitters to have RBI opportunities. Keaschall is born to be a highly productive #1 hitter. If we get an 2026 approximation of what Martin looked like last season, I'd put his contact and OB% ability and speed at #2. At least to start the upcoming season, but more on that to come. And Buxton, and all his power, should hit #3 with, ideally, some baserunners he can drive in. Roden is not a TOP prospect. But he's also not a bad prospect. And he's not the first rookie to struggle on his initial debut. But he has actual HIT, contact, and solid OB numbers on his resume, along with some power, solid speed, and good defense. And while I believe he MIGHT be a 1B candidate, I see him as a possible 4 position player...able to cover CF decently if needed...he has the potential to be an ideal 4th OF/bench player who might form a nice quasi-platoon in LF with Martin. That means he can give Martin days off against some really tough RHSP but they don't have to be a direct platoon. UNFORTUNATELY, I'm really worried that Falvey's pride or misplaced optimism will FORCE Outman, possibly ahead of the younger and potential-filled Roden, to be on the roster. I think we all agree that would be a huge mistake as we've all seen that Outman is nothing more than a AAAA player you wouldn't mind having in reserve at AAA. He's just NOT a ML player. But let's assume, for a moment, that Falvey puts his pride aside, and he let's roster construction be organic and let Roden make the roster as a much better "prospect" with potential. LF and the bench start to look pretty solid with Martin as the primary, and Roden as a solid LH option there, and in RF, CF if/when needed, and maybe even a 1B option for depth purposes at least. But we honestly can't talk about LF without also discussing RF. I think of it as the "Outman" factor. IF Falvey's pride and stubbornness just REFUSES to let go of Outman...despite logical objections from the rest of reality...Roden could end up in RF, allowing Wallner to be the primary DH. The defense and team speed take a jump, and so might the offense. But is that optimum? NO, IMO. Martin is not the only young player that lost ML time due to injury. Rodriguez also lost time for the same. When a couple OF injuries hit and McCusker was promoted to sit on the bench, a healthy Rodriguez would have been promoted. And this is where the rubber meets the road. The super talented Rodriguez that remains a bit of an enigma, would have probably been brought up before Martin had both been healthy when injuries hit. Rodriguez has tremendous potential. He's still a bit of an unknown. He's probably always going to be a 3 outcome player with good defense and speed. But is that a bad thing? He's probably a faster, better defender than Wallner with a little less power. Again, is that a bad thing? Rodriguez has PRODUCED at every level he's played at, even with missing some time. And he's had a hell of a good Winter Ball. And he has 1 option remaining. Better he comes to ST and shows his potential early and makes the roster and either RAKES, maybe shows progress, or maybe needs a few weeks back at St Paul for a short re-set before coming back again. Honestly, with 1 option remaining, would you rather have Rodriguez start the 2026 season with the Twins and run with him, and then send him down for a few weeks and bring him back up? Or would you rather have him spend a month or more at AAA, then bring him up, and then potentially send him back down in July? That just doesn't make sense to me. If he's healthy and has a solid ST, he's my primary RF to begin 2026 and I'm running with him as long as I can, accepting some growing pains, and knowing I can spend his final option if I think he needs a short term re-set about July 1st-ish. June 1st or July 1st-ish is also about the same time I see Jenkins ready to debut. And this is also when I start to think things potentially begin to change. I am starting to believe in Martin being the producer he was late in 2025. I like him as the #2 hitter, as previously stated, to begin 2026 behind Keaschall and ahead of Buxton. There's even a chance Lee, which I haven't previously mentioned, could improve enough to take over the #2 spot in the lineup, moving Martin to the #9 spot, to begin 2026. NOT betting on it, but it remains a possibility if Lee's contact ability starts to lead to PRODUCTIVE AVG and OB% with some power mixed in. Martin as a lineup FLIP secondary leadoff hitter could be excellent. BUUUT, at some point in 2026, Rodriguez and Jenkins are going to debut. And that changes the entire OF construction. In ALL scenarios, Wallner takes over the primary DH, plays OF part time, and that's a good thing. Martin gets an opportunity to prove he's a valuable ML player, even though someone BETTER might move him to a bench spot come June or July. He can still be an important part of a 13 player roster initially, if not the future. Same with Roden as a possible 4th OF, or 1B, or a 4 position depth piece. You see, LF discussion isn't really just about LF. It's really about LF/RF opening day and about June/July 1st. And it also opens discussion WHY this team should be dismantled and re-built when there is so much talent about ready to debut and progress, including rotation talent and depth. Amazing to me how a LF article seems so limited on the surface. But when you start to actually break it down, it's about the entire OF, and DH. And we barely touched on 1B. And have barely touched the INF, nor SP. But some just assume there isn’t enough talent to continue and we should blow it all up? -
Mostly agree and partially disagree. 1] KEEP the rotation intact. PERIOD. Quality SP is the hardest thing to find and build. 2] Golschmidt might be a potential HOF contender. But he really tanked in the 2nd half. Considering $ I'd look at Nathaniel Lowe for around $8-10M. He's had a quiet but productive career. He didn't HIT well in 2025, but still had a better stat line than Clemens. His 43 XBH were decent. He's nothing special, but he's solid. And even a down 2025 didn't stink. 3] I don't know if Thielbar is the answer or not. I could easily see him, Coulombe, Rogers, or Chaffin being a quality signing. While long in the tooth, they all had good 2025 seasons. Just pick the right one for one more quality season in the sun. 1yr at around $3M or so? 3B] They also need a veteran RHRP just to stabilize the pen. Some ideas have included Pressly as an option. He had a good couple months to begin 2025 and then fell apart. I only use him as an example. Is there a Sergio Romo type, again for example purposes only, that could be had for $4-5M? The possibilities from the RH side are numerous, so I'm not going to name one specifically, but that's the general idea. 4] Raya and Lewis are already headed to the pen. Each offers some intrigue, but I don't know that either would be ready for opening day. I hate, hate, hate Festa and Prielipp moving to the pen. But the logic is there for both. Festa's STUFF is very good. Especially if he can develop his 2 seamer. But his build and injury concerns scream that he should throw 1 inning 2 or 3 times a week and be a dominate reliever. And maybe it's just time for fans like myself to accept that's the best role for Prielipp. Grrr! Not what I wanted, but it just makes sense. Klein is a dark horse that a lot of people haven't been paying enough attention to. He's got the build and the pitches to suggest he might still be a SP option. But with increased velocity in 2025 and high K numbers, he could be the next Varland. Assuming nobody selects CJ Culpepper in the rule 5, he still has SP potential. But injuries have held him back. He just might be better in more appearances and shorter stints. He might skyrocket up the chain if put in that role. Just a few examples. If Bradley or Matthews doesn't get their act together, they might also transition. 5] A healthy Rodriguez is ready for MLB if healthy. He would have been up last year with better health. His winter is proving more and more he's ready. Let him play, and let us live with some growing pains if he has them. The OF gets better, team speed gets power, we add another power bat, and Wallner becomes the primary DH filling that hole.
- 85 replies
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- joe ryan
- pablo lopez
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I am completely flumoxed by the current 40 man. With no insult intended, just being caustic but accurate, at least half of the listed 7 shouldn't be rostered at this point. JULIEN: Well, I guess if you want to give him ONE MORE CHANCE to see if he can resurrect his bat, OK I guess. But unless he surprises and becomes the 1B, allowing Clemens to be a utility player again, what does he offer? He has ZERO options, only plays 2 positions at a mediocre level, and only provides AAA depth if he clears waivers. Which he probably would. So what do they really see here? OUTMAN: Almost 30yo, can't hit AT ALL, and his defense looked ordinary at best while with the Twins. Rodriguez plays CF, so does Jenkins, so can Roden and Martin to a degree. So can Fedko, to a degree. He should be OUT. Is this a Falvey ego thing? McCUSKER: He was promoted while still hot in AAA and basically sat and got splinters. And then he finished the season after a cold 2nd half at AAA. WTH? They obviously don't believe in him. GASPER/PEREDA: One is an actual catcher, one used to catch but his former team stopped playing him behind the dish. Neither is anything close to being a real talent. IF you want to actually roster a #3 catcher, then pick ONE and move on. But you could probably cut both and they'd probably go unclaimed and could be signed back on a MILB deal. KREIDLER/FITZGERALD: Even if he has a really good glove, Kreidler has proven he can't hit. Fitzgerald has shown at least a little with the bat, occasional power, can run a bit, and has a decent glove. But to keep BOTH? Isn't there a rule 5 or FA that could be added cheap to challenge this duo? I'm not saying there's another Castro out there just waiting for the right opportunity, And with all due respect, I'm going to include Larnach in this discussion. He didn't have to be offered arbitration. So why was he? Probably for the same reason 7 are still rostered. Falvey likes to set a FLOOR and then move forward. If crap hits the fan in regard to payroll, Larnach can be the LH DH and play OF occasionally as necessary. But not only can he still be traded...which is what I think the FO is attempting to due...but his arbitration numbers and roster spot can still be removed. There is no guarantee involved just yet. But to be frank, this a STUPID 40 man roster! While there might not actually be a viable NEED to add them, CJ Culpepper should have been added based on potential, despite some injury concerns. They don't seem to believe in Fedko as a possibility, but he he's younger than Outman, hits RH, can play multiple positions, and at least offers SOME upside. He may, or may not, have ML ability. But tell me Outman and McCusker do? All of this will probably figure itself out. Eventually, the Twins will sign a couple decent pen arms, and that will mean DFA for some of the guys on this list, the same way Keirsey was DFA. And at least one more has to go before the rule 5 draft. It's absolutely prudent for the Twins to take a shot at SOMEONE who might stick in the pen, or be a better option than Kreidler/Fitzgerald as a backup SS/utility option with potential. Even if they miss, what's better? Holding on to Outman/McCusker or taking a shot at a talent that might stick? The 40 man has 7 very easy cuts. Again, some will go when a couple FA are signed. One should be gone for a possible rule 5 pick. But even though the risk of losing someone within the system is small, I would have just cut bait on most of these 7 and protected CJ Culpepper, and possibly Fedko and Rosario simply because they offer up a hell of a lot more upside than players who simply don't figure in to 2026 or the future.
- 82 replies
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- edouard julien
- mickey gasper
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I don't know good Susac is defensively, but I do like the idea of grabbing him in the rule 5. But you have to keep him. And Jackson, if nothing else, is a quality defender. The problem/question with him is whether he's a .150 hitter, or a .200 hitter with flashes of power. I like the idea of adding another catching option as it's so important, and often overlooked and undervalued. But I think a legitimate arm for the pen, or a SS/utility player may fill a bigger hole/need. But I still like the idea.
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I've been on this bandwagon since 2025 began. I'd JUMP on 3 for $30 in a heartbeat! But I think it might take $33-36 to get it done. IMO, that's still a solid deal from the Twins perspective. Jeffers is about average defensively, but he's also tough, durable, very smart, calls a good game, and the pitchers seem to like throwing to him. And I agree he's really good at identifying pitches in the challenge system. And he's also one of the better bats at the position in all of MLB. He's capable of 20 HR, which he's done before. And let's be honest, who else do they have? I have a good feeling about Cardenas as a decent, solid #2 with a little more AAA time. But Diaw, Tait, and Jimenez are all a good 2yrs away, and possibly 3, before being ready to debut. And as @DJL44stated, one of the best/smartest things you can do is extend and KEEP the talent you've developed.
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I liked this post, but should have selected the love mark. I SEE Martin FINALLY starting to figure it out at 27yo and MAYBE being a part of 2026 and beyond. And I can easily see Roden getting himself together and having a solid second season where his MILB performance starts to translate as a solid ML player. The Twins traded for both. They decided to keep Larnach for what reason? To hopefully trade him for something? Then get to it! I think where we disagree on a very, very small degree is you see what you EXPECT, and what I hope to see what happens. What really stinks is you're probably more right than I am. And that stinks because I think we're of the same mind, but I like my optimism more than your defeated attitude. LOL I understand control issues. I can't even argue it when we're talking about a mid market team that suffers under very different financial numbers. But my goodness, why is Outman still on the roster? I say yet again, with ONE option remaining, Rodriguez has to be part of 2026, not Larnach, who should be traded for SOMETHING. and be gone. It's TIME to RUN with him and have his one option remaining. While not exactly young, I'm of the hope they will allow Martin to continue his upswing. And that they will allow the same for Roden, who remains a near rookie. Either MIGHT turn out to be a solid bench player. But at least one of them, if not both, are short lived based on Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Gonzalez. I defy Falvey's ego to just let Outman go. You took a shot, and it didn't work. Just let it go. I'm seeing what's coming up SOON and you're concerned about the past. And I get that. I guess I'm just hoping Falvey figures that out sooner than you do. 😀
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Haven't read the OP. Refuse to read it. I'm the complete opposite of a jerk. But how many times over the years do I have to start a topic and days later have to see almost the EXACT OP on the front page? I'm a team player. I love TD and have been here since it's inception. But as Vikings great is fond of saying: "COME ON"!
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I think the OP pretty much hits the nail on the head. Just a couple small moves so far for an OK pen arm with SOME potential, and an inexpensive backup catcher with a good defensive reputation, a little power, and that would be just fine if he can hit around .200 give or take. No other moves or hints of potential moves at this point. I'm really not trying to be optimistic here, but a few points that keep rattling around in my head: 1] The Twins have generally moved slowly to begin the offseason and let the bigger names move on that they weren't in on anyway. 2] While I don't put much faith in "management speak", Falvey has stated more than a few times he wants to keep Lopez and Ryan and made additions, not subtractions. He may be a lot of things, but I don't recall Falvey ever saying something that was actually a lie. 3] Even last season, when payroll was looking to be in the low $120 range, Joe...or someone within ownership...made a push and the FO had an extra $15M or so to spend. Now, that $ came in rather late, maybe too late to do much good, but it gave the FO a little more room to at least made some additions. Final opening day payroll was between $138-142M depending on what site you read. 4] The history of this FO has been to set a FLOOR for the team and then make changes and additions. 5] Shelton has alluded to conversations on his hiring about a direction for the team. Illusions and lies? Or promises about about at least a "decent" payroll projection? Again, I'm NOT blowing optimistic smoke at anyone. But these are facts to consider at this point with the minority owners yet to be ratified, questions remaining about the actual payroll, and past history of operation. Maybe the payroll is a flabbergasting and inexcusable $100-110M. And maybe it's actually going to be $120-125M or so. (Can't believe we'd be asked to be overjoyed by that). We just don't know yet. Was Larnach kept for the purpose of establishing a FLOOR for now with intent to try to move him for SOMETHING? That's my bet, but we'll see. Post arbitration, WITH Larnach, the roster sits about $90M. I want to say it's Fangraphs, but they project around $96M because they automatically add about $6M for 8 projected roster additions for the season due to injuries. That's fine. But I like to look at the ACTUAL opening day roster as opposed to possible projections. Add an extra $1M for Jackson, and we're still only $86M ish without Larnach, $91 ish with him for now. But IF Ryan and Lopez are there opening day, that's a good thing and it would mean the payroll was probably pushed a little, even though they are PART of that $86-91M payroll number. Larnach moved for WHATEVER, TBD, takes it down to around $86M again. IMO, any mention of Clemens as a "value addition" to the 2025 team and a possible 1B option is "management speak" for a base FLOOR. We've heard and seen this previously over the years. How about Nathaniel Lowe as a 1B option...who's quietly had a solid career...for $8-10M? Maybe 2yrs at $16-20M to settle 1B for the immediate future while other prospects FINALLY start to transition to 1B for the long term? He doesn't have to be platooned, and Clemens can be a LH power bat off the bench at 4 and maybe 5 spots. DO the Twins move Prielipp to the pen, at least for 2026? I'm slowly adapting to that idea. And maybe Funderburk has actually turned a corner. But how about Coulombe, Rogers, Chaffin, or Thielbar on a 1yr $3-4M for added, veteran depth? IDK who right now from the RH side because the list is long, but how about ONE RH option for around $4-5M that is of the Romero type for a veteran add for additional stability as the younger conversion prospects get time? Those very simple, logical, potentially helpful moves cost, at most, about $19M. You don't need a calculator to say WITH Larnach the payroll is STILL only $110M. Larnach moved, we're looking at a rough $105M. While that number is still grossly and aggressively low, it STILL allows for a very solid 1B and a pair of veteran RP to help stabilize the INF, the lineup, and a rebuilt bullpen. More numbers to drive you crazy? The projected payroll numbers proposed have $800K FILLERS for those 3 spots currently. So you can actually subtract another $2.4M off of that total payroll number. That, and maybe a couple $K more might bring in someone like Falefa, for example, as a veteran utility player who can at least cover SS on an occasional basis until K-Pepper is ready. Regardless of Falvey having no or little understanding of the ACTUAL payroll he has to work with, EVEN a 2026 payroll of $120M could STILL ALLOW the addition of a solid 1B and a pair of veteran pen arms to help in the rebuild of the bullpen for 2026. It's absolutely RIDICULOUS we have to be talking about a $120M payroll as a good thing. BUT, as the OP states, there are 3 primary reasons to realize if ownership gives a DAMN or not. And if they actually DO the 3 things presented, even with a BS payroll that I don't believe in, at $120M-ish, with talent on hand, prospects ready to debut, interesting arms converting, and a few solid additions as laid out, I can see a fun team to watch that offers an actual competitive chance to reach the playoffs and show hope for the future. If we DON'T see these so easy, so obvious moves made, then we are facing a massive rebuild. And again, sarcastically, we know how easy those are.
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- kody clemens
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