DocBauer

Winokur is one of my favorite prospects in the system due to his tantalizing athleticism and potential. Frankly, I'm a little surprised that anyone is "down" on him as a prospect at this stage in his career. (Yes, I know some of the contact concerns). I'm not the biggest fan of "what if" because it's hard to predict and can lead down a rabbit hole. But I'm going to play that game regardless as I think it's appropriate. He was a top recruit and took extra $ to sign instead of going to Texas Tech, which is a decent school in a top baseball conference. While we DON'T have a crystal ball to see how he would have actually produced in college, with his overall athleticism and tools, it's not hard to predict he would have been a very good college player, displaying all the tools we know he possesses. Even if we assume there were some contact issues, those tools and extrapolated college production would have, more than likely, made him a 1st round pick for someone in the recently completed draft. I'd say a 2nd round pick at worst. So there would be an excited FO, and fan base, SOMEWHERE, really excited about such a toolsy top draft pick ready to enter their system at 21yo. Considering how many/most teams handle recent draftees, he probably goes to A- for a couple of weeks and then finishes the season at A+. He PROBABLY begins 2027 at A+ with the idea of moving up to AA before the season is done. As recent Twins examples, this would pretty much follow the likes of Keaschall, KC, and Houston. Winokur didn't have an awful 2025, just a mediocre one as a 20yo at A+. That's still pretty young for any prospect. He went back, started painfully slow, and then got on a heater and really showed improvement. So the Twins feel he's ready to be challenged with, roughly, half season at AA as a 21yo. Any way you want to paint it, there aren't that many prospects who debut at AA as a 21yo. Are there more than there used to be with all the various changes that have taken place in MILB over the past few seasons with greater "pushes" of young talent? Absolutely. But most of those are TOP IL signings and TOP draft choices who's talent seemingly transcends normal development, even for great athletes like Winokur. Jenkins would be a recent Twins example. So being "ready" for the AA challenge, in the Twins mind, for a 21yo that would have been drafted just last weekend if he went to college is pretty impressive if you ask me. NOW, does any of this mean Winokur is going to reach MLB, much less be a STAR player? Absolutely not! He's still got to HIT at least decently. And he still hasn't unlocked his full power potential yet either. And I fully expect that he will spend most, perhaps all, of 2027 at AA as a 22yo. In what world is a powerful, speedy, strong armed athlete any kind of lost or poor prospect if he spends a season at AA as a 22yo? I'm a fan. I'm a hopeful believer. I actually think he might be the best CF in the system. But I'm not naive enough to believe he's anything close to a finished product. But with his POTENTIAL, I have ZERO problem with him spending 2027 at AA to just work more on contact and recognition, while honing his power stroke. 2028 he's at AAA as a 23yo still gaining experience and honing his abilities. That MIGHT even be ahead of schedule were he an actual draftee last weekend, but certainly not BEHIND. He's one injury or half a season from reaching the ML level. Winokur K-ing 130-140 times and BB 75 times while being a 20-20 player, or better, and hitting .235 with an OB around .300-.315 with quality defense is a very good ballplayer, whether he's at 3B or CF. If he can hit in the .250-.260 range with a slightly higher OB%, he's probably an All Star. But I admit he's got a long way to go. FIRST, he has to conquer AA over the next year and a half. Then he has to prove himself at AAA. Development is never linear. Hell, I'd be happy if he debuted and took a spot as a 24yo! In what world is that an "old" prospect with tons of talent and team control? Defensively, I've seen him play a tiny bit of SS. I've been amazed that a guy that big can reach the balls he can. And his arm is wicked strong. But he's just NOT going to be anything other than a mediocre ML SS. He's playing it less these days, but the Twins have a belief that playing some SS will only make a 3B or 2B that much better in the dirt. I get that in theory, but push back when someone like Winokur is CLEARLY a 3B or CF. Other than as a fill-in on some days, he should be concentrating on 3B and CF daily. Again, I'm not putting the cart before the horse. He's got a lot to develop and prove yet. But I am so much more focused on what he CAN do, and MIGHT do, rather than what he hasn't yet polished. That's why he's a tantalizing 21yo getting his first taste of AA.

Is Mattison a late round steal? While a smaller school, Grand Canyon has a pretty good reputation as a baseball program and he did well there. He did NOT find the SEC very inviting, however. Not a big surprise there. I wonder if he will be a tough sign? A return to Kentucky for his senior year might show significant improvement. But as a senior, just how much better might be his draft stock? Enough to move in to the top 10 rounds and enter the bonus pool category? What if he gets hurt? Or being a senior, maybe he's pitched underslot $? So maybe he signs anyway. I don't dislike a 3rd catcher in Prather. It sounds like he's pretty raw defensively, but California isn't a bad program and his bat looks pretty good. But he provides a low A prospect, and they certainly need catchers there as well. He sounds like the next version of Cossetti, drafted for his bat with the hope the defense will come around. Cossetti's bat hit a wall at AA until this season when it started to find life again. His future remains in doubt. And I don't like comparing a recent draftee directly, he just reminds me of him. If he ever reaches MLB, it's going to be a long road. But the MILB system needs catchers at the lower levels as well. He's a long term project, but his bat might carry him forward initially. It will be his development as a backstop that determines his future. Everything about McAnelly says solid career, record setting for a lower level Big 12 program, solid results, and apparently the ability to "pitch". So command and control appear to be there. But is there any velocity? Does he have any sort of OUT pitch in his repertoire? Currently, I'm seeing a guy who might do well initially and then hit a wall at AA if they can't add MPH and retool his secondaries. But control/command is something to work with. When a college SS can't hit above .300 I really wonder about his potential. Moutzouridis sounds like a glove first SS with good zone recognition, and the ability to get OB. Sounds like he has at least a little pop potential in his bat. He'd better or all the good contact, zone control, OBP, and solid defense still will have him eaten alive after a couple of seasons. The Twins always seem to draft a glove 1st SS who is athletic with a questionable bat every year. At least this time, they waited until late. I read/heard somewhere that the Twins wouldn't end the draft without picking at least 1 player from UCLA. Well, they got it in Barnett. And the truth is he had a great career for a TOP program in the country. IMO, he and Mattison, and McAnelly are all the same basic pitcher. Great college careers, and some very good career numbers for their colleges. But other than command/control, where is the ONE PITCH that entices future development? That's really the key isn't it? Command and control are awesome! But there's usually SOMETHING a pitcher has that the Twins sort of hang their hat on in regard to the "clay" they think they can mold. I have ZERO problem with a bat first development catcher in the lower rounds. I have doubts SS Moutzouridis has a future unless he uncorks more pop/power. But if ONE of Mattison, McAnelly, or Barnett is suddenly throwing 95 a year from now with a quality slider/sweeper/cutter as a solid secondary, they might stumble on a potential late round steal. And isn't that we always hope for at this point in the draft?

I'm late to this OP, but wanted to comment a bit anyway. I don't mind pausing the run on arms to grab some position players to round out the system. Teel seems to be a good athlete who should provide solid defense. Obviously there are some good baseball genes in the family. He seems to have a good approach. The question is power. He might be a 20HR bat, but does he have to be in order to be a useful OF? I see sort of a "Roden" type who can a bit of everything. I absolutely LOVE the 2B Lane pick from Michigan! While Big 10 baseball doesn't usually match up to the Big 3 conferences, the level of play and prospects has really improved the past few years. If he's even average defensively, he seems to have a really nice HIT tool and some quality power. The SS Lane from an NAIA school is an odd selection. Considering where he was drafted, he doesn't save $. And I doubt he was drafted as a "favor" for someone. This is clearly a kid that has been followed by a Twins scout since he was at San Diego State. So there must be something there they like. I find Bouchard really interesting from a smaller school in Wofford. He's definitely on an upswing coming off his junior season, his first as a full time starter. He reminds me of a slightly shorter version of Festa. Wasn't he also a 14th round pick? He packs on another 10-15lbs over the next year or so, he might be throwing mid 90's before we know it. They've done well with smaller school arms begging for development in the later rounds. SS Scholvin sounds like a "gamer". 1st team MAC doesn't sound like much on the surface, but he certainly excelled at his level. Forgetting the crazy HBP numbers, more BB than K's show a guy with knowledge of the zone. How do you argue against a .360 AVG and .480 OBP for any hitter? Does he have some pop in his bat? Can he actually play a solid SS? Perhaps he's a potential Super Utility player down the road? Not sure what we'd expect from a 15th rounder, but you never know. One very interesting arm, a VERY interesting 2B, a decent looking OF, and a pair of SS to flesh out the lower levels of the system. I like the mix, but Turner and Bouchard would appear to be the unpolished gems of this group.

Just to add, I felt better about his bat when I heard that his swing and miss was more "in the zone" than chasing. And he did take some BB as well. So I'm seeing a bit of a Sano type profile? A guy that will work the count a bit, but will also K a fair amount because he's looking for a pitch to do damage with. He'll BB, get a hit, smash a rocket, or K fairly often. I don't know that that is necessarily a bad profile. I mean, if he's not prone to chasing, imagine Sano as a power arm catcher? Or Jeffers with even more power and a better arm but not as good of a "hitter"? As a #2 catcher he could be very valuable. I agree he was probably a contingency on their board if Lackey wasn't there for some reason. But his draft position wasn't that far removed from the various draft lists. And Johnson was pretty clear they really liked him. Totally agree if breaking stuff fools him too much he could be a slow developing player. And catchers always develop differently and are always a bit of a crap shoot. But I kinda like the pick as I think the position is often ignored to a degree, and catchers who can provide offense are hard to find. My knee jerk reaction was very much "WTH"?! But I'm kinda liking it now.

I like this group overall. It's an interesting mix. Lay has shown some real flashes of quality production, shown continued improvement, and seems to have a feel for throwing different pitches. I think greater velocity and finding a true "out pitch" are probably his top priorities. Bayles being labeled "one of the most underrated draft prospects" is a nice label. A wipeout that tunnels off his FB well is a great place to start. With a little more velocity, which the Twins are good at developing, he just might be a steal. Burns is a wild card and I don't mind that. You seldom draft a pitcher that appears to be a reliever only, but I don't have a problem when it's a high K arm that already touches 100mph coming out of college, with a quality secondary offering already available. If they can find a usable 3rd offering and teach him any sort of control, he could fly through the system as a powerful pen arm. Nothing wrong with a shot like that. Raab has the size and velocity to grab your attention. I like the fact that he stood out in the Cape Cod League, though that isn't always a precursor of future success. But big frames and good initial velocity give you some good tools to work with. Klecker, like most young arms, has battled some control issues. But he's stood out since his freshman season and sort of saved his best for last season, which means he's on an upswing developmental wise. It's an interesting mix. A couple guys with control who need to add velocity, and a couple guys with velocity who need better control. And 1 kid with scary good stuff that may wash out quickly, but who could be DANGEROUS with any sort of control at all. It's a good mix. I don't know that the current trend of 2025 and this year of drafting so many arms so early will continue...you still need to balance your system overall...but I thought it was a good move to have more arms early these past 2 drafts. It's more bullets in the chamber, so to speak, to hit the target.

It's a tough call for sure. Based on age, already at AAA at 20yo, 21 this season, and performing quite well...though not yet where he needs to be...and almost ready for MLB, I'm keeping Jenkins #1 for now. IMO, the battle is for #2. But it also depends how you like to rank prospects doesn't it? Some look at talent and potential almost exclusively. Others factor in level of proven advancement in their rankings as well. I try to find a balance of both. K-Pepper appears to be at least an average ML SS in defensive ability. That is nothing to sneeze at or lightly dismiss, even if Houston projects as being the #1 SS in the near future. And KC is no slouch with the bat or on the bases either. But Lackey appears to be a special talent. And I have zero doubt he passes the initial "lemon" test when he begins playing. So a AAA SS with really good offense and a brand new rookie with special talent on both sides of the ball. I'm keeping K-Pepper #2, barely, just for now. I'd probably have Lackey surpass him by mid season next year, and possibly even Jenkins, except both are probably with the Twins by that time almost assuredly so it really won't matter. (Rodriguez for sure as he's already out of options). So Lacky narrowly behind KC for now, and the #1 prospect by mid season 2027.

Sands was very good in 2024. He was inconsistent in 2025, but at times looked like his 2024 version. If he can come back and even be that 2025 version, he helps this bullpen. He's a major step up over some of the audition candidates 5he team has tried out this season.

They do draft lefties, but not as many as I'd prefer. Funderburk 2ad one of the earliest. Jaylin Nowlin in Wichita's bullpen was a late rounder with some electric stuff who may or may not have a career in the pen. They picked a pair fairly high in 2021 in Steve Hajjar and Cade Povich, though they were later traded. Of course, Prielipp and Hill are a couple of recent, highly drafted arms. Michael Carpenter is a young arm with promise drafted in 2024, debuted last year, but has only recently started pitching this season due to injury. Last year they drafted Matthew Becker in the 19th round. I know there have been others, but that's just a few I can recall. I really wish they'd take a few more shots. Even if they don't end up with a Prielipp very often, you still need to find some LH arms for your bullpen. So they take shots, just ad not many as they should, IMO. Not a single one this year is surprising and disappointing.

Good size and frame. Mid 90's velocity and has cranked it higher on occasion. Gets squared up hard at times. Maybe they need to work on it's shape? A grade 60 slider is his out pitch. Below average CHANGE that he doesn't use a lot. Has problems with BB at times. Apparently had a really good Cape Cod offseason as a RP. Certainly has some potential.

Sorry @Dmanbut I think he's actually a RH arm. But besides that, he's got a big frame, which is something the Twins are always looking for. And he's got potential as a high velocity arm with potential as a SP, but a floor as a RP. He's a mystery pick based on arm talent and potential. He barely threw this past season. So you are only guessing as to his potential. Apparently the Twins believe in his frame, and some adjustments to make his FB work better. IDK that I like this pick based on so much loose projection. But I guess the potential says quality BP arm? But who knows what professional coaching can do. I see the potential when healthy. But he might be the current draftee that I have the biggest question mark on.

Yep. But he's not Quick, who came with a very high FB and some nasty secondary stuff but needs refinement. Again, he's closer to Matthews as a big body with solid IP and college results, and some decent stuff who needs professional coaching to take the next step. We won't see him, probably, until 2027. But he will probably add a tick or 2 to his velocity and change some shapes of his stuff. He could be a fast riser in 2027. THIS DRAFT offered a LOT of college arms in regard to depth. It didn't have a lot of college arms that might be fast risers. But I think they got a good one here who just needs a tick or two on velocity and some repertoire tweaks. A potential riser in 2027?

He's a tall, well built kid who comes from Colorado. What you're banking on here is future potential. He's probably going to need a couple of years just to adjust to a professional workload. A HS pitcher is amongst the best and worst investments you can make. Of course, it's not like all college arms ever turn out either. But a successful HS arm turnout usually turns out very well in the long run. So you ALWAYS take a shot, like Soto and Hill, to see if you strike gold. But you also have to accept talent that might not be ready for 3-5yrs. You also have to recognize that arms from colder climates sometimes take longer as they weren't necessarily facing the same competition, or necessarily on the same touring teams as arms from warmer states. But a talented arm with potential is a talented arm with potential. He's pretty highly rated, with a great build, and about ready to have professional coaching for the first time. We won't see him until 2027, but he's got the arm talent to wait on. Not a bad pick, given time.

A good frame with solid velocity and some decent secondary stuff. He's projectable. He reminds me somewhat of Matthews from his scouting reports. Good stuff, good IP, some solid stuff, can probably add a couple ticks to velocity, and then refine his secondary stuff. He's not Quick in pure velocity, but he's got some real potential as a solid middle rotation arm. More MPH, he might take a step up. A very solid pick. Projections have him taking a step forward with professional coaching.

I would have gone P as well. But MOST of the college P I really liked were gone, as expected, even though I was hoping for the best. There were still a couple I still liked, but I'm sure the Twins draft board is very different than me as a very amateur GM. And their NEXT TIER apparently showed a collection of arms that just didn't mesh with MY opinion. I think we all have to remember that the FO knows a hell of a lot more than we do. So an arm we see ranked at a certain point doesn't mean the Twins see enough of a difference from the next group.

Full confession, my knee-jerk reaction was WTH? Wasted pick! It just caught me SO off guard. But I quickly relaxed after I heard Jamie do a more complete breakdown. NOTE: Basic Twins draft principle has usually been there are arms with potential to develop, but TOP BATS tend to disappear after the first couple of rounds. NOTE 2: Jeffers was a surprise 2nd round pick that wasn't rated that high and they turned out pretty well with that pick. (Seth pointed this one out). NOTE 3: Tait and Jiminez are each very, very young and 2-3yrs away. Diaw has great athleticism and bat potential, but he's still rough around the edges as a catcher. I still like him if he can/will put in the develop work necessary. So Tinney is a big guy who might not move the best, but is a big target and has a really strong arm. Despite some HIT concerns, he BB a lot, and it sounds like his hit&miss is still within the zone. That would seem to indicate some HIT potential and decent recognition skill. His hard rate contact and SLG numbers are all in the top 5-6% of college bats this season. So the 70 power ranking seems to be for real. I'm a big believer in drafting and developing CATCHERS every single draft. So I can't really dislike selecting another catcher when it's such an important position, and often ignored, or at least undervalued for sure. And not just by the Twins. Really good catchers are hard to come by. Just think about how concerned many are about a possible loss of Jackson at this point. A backup catcher behind Lackey with a strong arm and big power suddenly doesn't sound like such a bad idea when you consider ALL of these factors. And there's room for him to DH and maybe play some 1B as well. I think it would be a major mistake to say he's another Sabato. Maybe another Jeffers-like catcher would be more accurate. I'm not certain that I would have made this selection, but reflection after my initial knee-jerk reaction has me understanding why they went this route. I can see the reasoning for a 2nd catcher and a BIG BAT that has the potential to move around some.

Tait not yet 20yo at A+ and struggling a bit doesn't concern me. There are prep prospects being selected at 19yo in this draft.

I liked your post even though I don't 100% agree with it. Ryan is the more important extension candidate. But IF TP is serious about the team contending...and they continue to win series and get above .500...I don't think the QO is completely out of the question. Nobody at catcher is going to bready immediately.

Two good developments for a bullpen that needed them, and still needs more. Makes Raya having a nice debut and then immediately getting injured just that much more bitter hoping we might have a 3rd good developmental story. Can CJ stay healthy, continue to develop, and get some time the last 2 months to get set up for 2027?

I truly would have been very happy with any of the top 3 options. But Lackey was my favorite. It's just so rare to have a quality, athletic, defensive catcher with a good arm who can also be a quality, contributing bat. It also turns out to be a great organizational fit as well. Super excited! 2 weeks at Ft Myers just to get started and then immediately up to Cedar Rapids?

Yuk

His injury is unfortunate, but it's a hell of a lot better than a knee or something similar. I'd say this pushes his debut back until August 1st just due to healing and some game time to get in a groove. But I still think/hope we get to see him get his feet wet for 2027 and beyond. In the meantime, we hopefully get to see Kreidler as the primary SS.

A few comments: 1] GREAT WIN! The team kept grinding. 2] I'm still SO IMPRESSED by Prielipp and what he's done after being brought up earlier than expected. You can see the potential. 3] Man, if Funderburk could ever throw that well daily he'd be a part of a decent bullpen. Do we still have hope? 4] I don't know know how good of a ML ballplayer Roden can be. But I know the skills are there. I've never expected greatness out of him. But he SHOULD have made the opening day roster instead of Outman. And he should have been USED instead of this crazy roster idea of only playing with a 12 1/2 roster idea. THIS is his opportunity to show that he IS a MLB player, and that he belongs, even as a quality 4th OF. I'm super happy for his contribution tonight, and give him extra kudos for turning around for the 2nd water splash during his interview, lol. 5] While I absolutely love Cory Provus to pieces, I really LOVE the multiple color commentary of multiple former Twins in the booth! I enjoyed it last season, and my only regret is not being able to watch the whole games to enjoy the experience. TV is very different than radio. Radio you need the play by play. When watching the game, the guys still set things up, but they also offer up some great thoughts and moments, coupled with humor. I think Cory would only add, but I just love having a 3 and 4 man booth where we get humor and perspective. PLEASE give us more of multiple former Twins in the booth. It really adds a lot of fun and interesting perspectives of the game.

I think moving Larnach can open a spot for someone like Roden...if he PROVES he's as good as he appears to be...and bring something back. But he's only going to bring back someone's 4th or 5th pen arm, unless you want to settle for a prospect. But maybe someone else's 4th or 5th arm is a young Varland? He's more replaceable than Bell is. Bell brings back a prospect. Just promoting a prospect to fill his roster spot doesn't help this season. Jeffers brings back the most, if traded. But again, what are you expecting back? A team looking to keep winning and have a chance for the playoffs, much less a potential WS appearance, PROBABLY doesn't have anything to offer other than a couple really good prospects, or again, maybe a #4-5 RP that is Varland junior. And that might be fine for 2027 and beyond with Caratini and Jackson as at least competent replacements. I'm not saying the Twins CAN'T get a solid RP with talent, and upside, and control who might help this season, but it might be difficult. Again, what playoff contender wants to weaken their bullpen to acquire a necessary bat? Well, as stated, maybe they have a 4th or 5th arm with potential they are willing to move. But that's cutting a very thin slice of opportunity. But a couple decent arms that might contribute in 2027 is NOT out of the equation. A BAT isn't going to happen in trade without moving prospects. A SP that can eat some innings similar to Keuchal a couple years ago might be acquired for next to nothing. SOMEWHERE there is a veteran SP on a lonely team without playoff hopes that would love to have even a decent prospect for someone to eat the rest of his 2026 salary. That could help the Twins eat up innings, and help conserve Prielipp, who MIGHT finish the season in the BP just to monitor his IP. But the bullpen is probably not going to be addressed for THIS SEASON by trading Larnach, or Jeffers, unless we get a nice surprise. THOSE potential trades would be for prospects that might be CLOSE but probably not on a current roster. That doesn't mean trading them would be a mistake. They might bring back help for 2027. But if the Twins really want to add to the bullpen, you need to look back to 2019 when they traded a handful of decent, but not TOP prospects to acquire Romo and Dyson. Let's forget the fact that Dyson was hiding and injury and turned out to be a bad human being. On paper, he was a good rental on the cheap. Romo turned out to be a cheap addition to help and was good enough to bring back. Look, I know it's been 7yrs, but Romo cost the Twins 1B Lewin Diaz, a power bat on the upswing at the time. That would be the equivalent today of Sabato. Dyson cost OF Jaylin Davis, also on the upswing, and a couple of low A MILB prospects. Today, that would probably be Rosario and a flier or 2 from the FCL. Romo was a great acquisition. Dyson could have been. The Twins just aren't going to get immediate bullpen help from trades of Larnach and Jeffers. Or Bell, who I don't think they will move. But they might get future help. BUT they have the choice to get veteran rentals, eating what's left on their contracts, that they can choose to resign, or younger arms that have control. But it's going to cost prospects. Or maybe there's a few cheaper but solid options similar to Romo and Dyson out there. I'm not crazy about rentals unless they come cheap. I don't want to wreck the MILB system for a rental at this point. But what if a Rosario and a solid A prospect could bring back a Varland junior from a sub .500 team looking for younger talent? Who knows, maybe Fedko is better than paying a veteran another couple $M guaranteed next year for the Angels or some team. My whole point is, BULLPEN is what's needed. But the best way to find arms for NOW is to trade prospects to get them from teams that don't figure in to any playoff structure for 2026. The question is are you looking for rentals? Or someone you have control of for a couple of years? The cost changes depending. And how much are you willing to pay for either avenue? Again, like Romo, you might just get someone cheap that you can resign again. But to add to the pen for THIS SEASON, what you're really looking for is non contending teams looking for some prospects. The veterans the Twins might move are going to bring in prospects for 2027 and beyond.

I hope he does well. But right now he's behind Raya and CJ IMO, so I'd be surprised to see him this season.

As stated, just take the best available at #3 and don't overthink it. Take a couple arms early and make sure you end up with at least a dozen. This is a big year for HS arms. That makes it a perfect time for the Twins to go over total $ and add the extra 5% available that doesn't incur a penalty. This would be the FIRST TIME, but a great time. That's something like an extra $500-600K. That might be enough to get a top prep arm to sign with us.