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Everything posted by DocBauer
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2026 Position Player Roster Imbalance
DocBauer replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
This is just my take. Larnach was kept to "set the floor" before additions were made. So far, we've seen a fairly major one in Bell. I believe they are glong to move him in SOME sort of deal. And this is especially true if they add some sort of RH bat to help at 1B/DH, MAYBE someone who could "handle" 3B or a corner OF spot here and there. By himself, he brings in some sort of prospect. Packaged with someone else, he might bring in a decent pen arm. It's also my understanding that until ink is laid to paper, they have the option to just release him and save the $ to be spent elsewhere. I just don't see a fit for him on the '26 roster. I agree, in general principal, with @Riverbrianthat it's hard to be TOO LH over a 162 game schedule where you face RHP 75% of the time. HOWEVER, by Falvey's own, and rather obvious, admission, the Twins are going to sign at least a couple RP of ML quality and experience. Who and how good remains to be seen. Right there, 2 guys currently on the 40 man, who don't belong, are going to be gone, regardless of the Larnach situation. Brian and I disagree on Outman as he believes Outman is almost a lock because Falvey traded for him at the deadline last year. However, not only did he continue to be BAD, but Roden and Martin are ALSO players Falvey traded for. And while I loved Stewart, he was an injury waiting to happen, and thus, not a TOP player or prospect. Honestly not sure why Julien is still on the 40 man, and that makes me sad. And he's out of options. What possible role does he fill for 2026 unless someone is hurt AND he suddenly starts hitting? He's a cut out of ST if not before. Kriedler remains a mystery to me. The guy would have to field like Ozzie Smith considering how horrendous his bat is. I still suspect they plan to cut him and hope he slides through waivers for St Paul duty. I can see a small deal for a MILB SS from someone, and a possible "Castro hopeful" invite to compete with Kreidler and Fitzgerald for that 2nd utility spot. At least Fitzgerald doesn't embarrass himself at the plate. They AREN'T going to open the season with Jenkins on the roster for some good reasons. And while I'd really like them to "bite the bullet" and give Rodriguez a job DAY ONE if healthy and having a solid ST, I'm willing to bet he gets a month at AAA. The OF should be Roden, Martin, Buxton, and Wallner. Roden and Martin aren't ideal CF backups, but they're OK for occasionally duty. And they MIGHT play Keaschall some in the OF, but I think that's a bit misguided, and a bit of smoke as well. The infield is Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, Bell, and Clemens. Catcher is set with Jeffers and Jackson. That's 11 locks. There's room for two more. One is obvious for a utility player who can cover SS. I cringe even considering Kreidler, but I suppose he has to be considered. Fitzgerald isn't quite as good of a glove, but he's the better bat option. And again, they might still uncover another option on a MILB type signing. This is still a mystery spot. And it's really a temporary spot until K-Pepper is ready, or maybe even a surprise like Schobel, who shouldn't be ignored considering his 2025 season before being hurt. That still leaves ONE addition. Yes, despite what I've previously stated, there's potential room for Larnach or Outman to take that final spot. But with Jenkins, Rodriguez, and even Gonzalez sitting at AAA, what role does Outman even have other than as a PR and SUPPOSEDLY good bench defender when he was average at best with the Twins in that role? And why pay Larnach almost $5M to be a DH when 3 of your top 10 prospects are OF and any one of them, and Wallner, and anyone else having a half day off could also DH? So you keep Larnach just to try and trade him at the deadline? I just don't see a logical fit! Remember when I said it's hard to be too LH? It's true. But this also an opportunity to ADD a decent RH bat who can help at 1B/DH to work along side Bell and Clemens. There has been speculation about Miguel Andujar as an inexpensive option. That might be a smart move if they don't actually trade for a full time 1B option and let Bell be the primary DH. The last 2 spots are the mystery, otherwise 11 position spots are set. My goodness, I'd welcome a Pedro Florimon option instead of Kreidler as of today, but hope they could uncover a "Castro-lite" somewhere. But I'd take Fitzgerald for my utility man, backup SS at this point. And for better roster construction, I'd hope they'd just move Larnach and try something different, whether it be long term or short term. And it's not as though I dislike Larnach. I just don't see a roster fit that makes sense. But the 40 man IS going to look different over the next couple of months as at least 2 ML pen arms are going to be added. And I'm still betting on another BAT being added based on need, and comments from Zoll as to what they are looking for. So there's a really good chance Larnach, Outman, Gasper, and Julien are all possible drops.- 31 replies
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- left handed hitter
- out of options
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I'm also going to have to disagree. It's not as simple as stating the Twins haven't produced enough elite or top players, at least since Falvey took over. And sometimes, it's what prospects bring back, not just what they do for the Twins. Petty brought back Gray. Arraez was developed while working for THIS FO and traded for Lopez. Ryan was acquired as a solid, but not great, AAA prospect and developed in to an All Star pitcher. Ober has been very good before his hip hindered him in 2025. SWR and Martin were both acquired as prospects. SWR has turned out pretty well and shows more potential. Martin seems to have turned a corner to be at least a serviceable ML player. Duran, Jax, and Varland acquired or drafted by this FO and turned out quite well. Wallner...who I think has been held down too long at times...had a solid debut, and followed that up with a pair of HIGH .800 OPS seasons before a slump in 2025 that I still believe was due to his hamstring injury. Larnach never became the player hoped for, but he became an AVERAGE ML producer. That's pretty much a 70-75% outcome, roughly, for a drafted player. That's considered a quality outcome overall when you consider how few prospects EVER achieve that kind of career. Admittedly, the jury is still out on some guys. We've seen how good of a player Lewis can be when healthy. The FO, and the coaches, are not responsible for his injuries. The good news is how he looked the 2nd of of 2025, and the number of games played. Still only 26yo. I'm not sure what to expect of Lee, still only 25yo in 2026. Starting 2B or 3B? Super utility INF? He entered 2025 with ONLY 172 ML AB. That's a lousy 22 AB above rookie qualification. He showed some power, drove in some runs, and played better at SS post Correa trade. Can he take another step forward in 2026? I sure hope so. But again, only 25yo and ONE full ML season under his belt. Festa flashed nicely in 2024, but battled shoulder issues almost the entire 2025. I think he's destined for the pen, but he sure has shown potential. Same with Matthews. He wasn't really supposed to debut in '24, but injuries said otherwise. He's simply not a finished product yet. But he's also flashed some really good games and maintained high K numbers, indicating his potential. And while some trades simply haven't worked as hoped...ugh...other prospects have been used in various trade deals. So I don't think it's accurate to say the current FO, and their coaches, have failed to develop prospects at this point. And while I'm not saying all of this is going to happen, imagine Lewis finally putting his injuries behind him. Lee takes another step forward with his bat this upcoming season? How about Wallner not having another hamstring injury and getting his OPS back to .800 again? Festa settles in as a high leverage arm like Duran, Jax, and Varland did? Matthews finds greater consistency in 2026 to go along with his high K numbers? These guys are all 27yo and younger. Now, injuries beside, if we DON'T see improvement from the lot of them, we can start to question coaching and approaches. While we all hope Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, K-Pepper, Abel, Prielipp, Morris, etc, all come up and look awesome in their debuts, it's not uncommon for some initial struggles or inconsistencies to begin with. In the history of the Twins alone, for every Puckett, Hrbek, or Mauer that shone immediately, there's a large collection of Gaetti, Hunter, Morneau, Rosie, Viola, etc, who needed a little time to "settle in". If we see this next wave flounder, along with zero improvement from the aforementioned players, THEN we have a real issue. In the meantime, it's really more about some injuries that have slowed a few kids, a couple that were OK but not great, some who are hopefully about ready to break through, and some ready to debut. But we're also ignoring some very good success stories over the past 3-5 years.
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In principle, I like this idea. He appears to be an acceptable 1B...which might be where he plays the most...who can cover 3B once in a while. He's young, inexpensive, controllable, has power, and has room to improve. That all makes sense. One good season out of 2 full seasons and 2 partial seasons for Ober doesn't thrill me, however. So I'm probably going to say pass on this, but it's a practical idea that has some validity. I just don't see a long term fit. While he doesn't have as much power, and would cost more $, you could sign an older version in Miguel Andjuar on a 1yr and keep Ober. And he'd be a better HITTER than Vientos. And you haven't blocked K-Pepper when he's ready...hopefully July...to play SS and 3B/2B, with Lee also being able to cover those same spots as well. And since Clemens actually has played some 3B, I'm still of the idea he should play there some in ST as well in order to be at least an "emergency" option there as well. It's a constructive idea, just not one I'm sold on.
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IMO, 2026 is a work in progress that will have, roughly, 2 sides. Side 1 is opening day. Side 2 is post June 1st and beyond. And I've stated this before. The over/under payroll SEEMS to be about $115M. Based on history, I'm betting slightly over, but that's also a bit of a digression. For the UPTEENTH TIME, I DON'T dislike Larnach. But he just doesn't fit! He needs to be moved in a package deal for a decent pen arm, or traded alone for a prospect, or just let go. He HAS value. But he doesn't FIT the team going forward! This happens if Falvey FINALLY let's go of his paranoid depth issues/trauma. The same for Outman who had no reason to be on anyone's 40 man right now. LF and backup CF is Martin, Roden, and Rodriguez. So why even consider rostering a NO HIT, average at best CF option? Outman is easily cut the next FA signing. Bell is a nice addition. He's better as a DH and part time 1B. And while his deal is about $7M, about $2M of that is tied to a 2027 buyout. But if you want to include the entire contract for 2026, without Larnach, post arbitration the payroll still sits about $93M. It's just math. That leaves approximately $22M to add for a $115M payroll. That leaves $22M for at least 2 solid, veteran relievers to help rebuild the pen initially. But it might also allow the opportunity to add another 1yr bat as well. I go back to the OP: #1] Lee has a lot to prove. He NEEDS to get his BAT and APPROACH right. But he's got the talent and intelligence to be a solid player. Again for the UPTEENTH time, he entered 2025 barely above rookie status. He's still really young and played better defense once he played there daily. He's just NOT the long term SS. That's K-Pepper come June or July. #2] BIG BAT. Well Bell IS a BIG BAT. The question is whether not they add another quality 1B to the team via FA or trade. They might trade for a long term young 1B option, or sign a decent RH 1B option. The options have been presented previously and I'm not going to again get in to previous discussions. But #3 is really interesting to me. Let's think about the FO being smart/accurate and signing 2 or 3 smart choices as BP options. And MAYBE we get one with a Larnach plus prospect trade. And I'm TOTALLY REMOVING another Stewart or Thielbar comparison signing who surprise. Let us talk about the part 2 of the 2026 season where Festa and Prielipp are ready to help the bullpen. And there is an honest chance Festa and Klein might be ready opening day or in early May. Lewis and Raya might follow soon after. You want to discuss HALF MEASURES? I'd counter with a few smart additions to the lineup and the pen and discuss HALF a season where the Twins might look very different post June, July 1st.
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Look, ownership and the FO are a combination here. While I've been very frustrated at times with ownership over the years, at times they've stepped up. Never enough to my liking, and not often enough, but at times they have. And I've never been a big banger on the FO...as they've had their hands tied at times...because Falvey and company have brought about some really, really fun seasons over the past 8 years or so. My "dislike" towards ownership really changed following 2023. It's nice Tom has now stated what a HUGE mistake that was. OK. It's done. Now show me your recent comments hold water going forward. And my occasional disagreements with the FO have really grown over the past couple of seasons...despite the cutbacks that hampered them...for moves made and not made to the point where I've been ready for changes. HOWEVER, I actually believe Falvey really and truly had no idea how to proceed until recently for 2026. I don't know if it's due more to getting the minority owners in place, OR, more to do with the internal squabbles within the Pohlad family and this new reorganization. I think it's more the latter. And I'm not willing to give Falvey and company a PASS for 2026 by any means. But there IS a reality...whether you wish to admit it or not...that nothing was SETTLED until basically mid December. That's a bit of a roadblock towards the offseason and any plans to be made. But do I believe that Falvey and company have warm seats anyway? You bet I do. Now, does that mean massive, sweeping changes are due post 2026 if the team disappoints? I don't know. I guess it depends on whether or not the bottom just drops out, which I'm not exactly expecting. I believe, with a new GM...who's role and power we really don't know at this point...a new manager, and a collection of new coaches, the final record may not even be an indicator of change. We might see a .500 team, give or take, that is fun, interesting, and competitive with rebounds from certain key players, and the debut of top prospects, and solid performances from FA additions, etc. that offers real optimism going forward. OR, we might see a .500 team, give or take, that is fun, interesting, and competitive with rebounds from certain key players, and the debut of top prospects, and yet the team might just look disappointing by being sloppy, or leaving potential wins on the field as losses, etc. *I'm leaving just "tanking" off my projections due to a certain level of optimism and belief of talent on hand. Despite what 2027 may offer in a lockout and negotiations and the such, I believe POST 2026 will STILL require an honest evaluation not so much on the coaching staff, but the OVERALL feel of the trajectory of the team, including the MILB system. Fair or not, Falvey will need to be re-evaluated in his role. The Pohlads may love him, but his BASEBALL vision just might be wrong. So maybe he keeps his job on the BUSINESS side of things, and they decide to bring in a different voice/leader for the BASEBALL side of the operation. So I don't know that Falvey's employment is in question. But I think this is a "hot seat" season for him to prove he can also provide an actual PLAN and VISION for the BASEBALL side of the operation. And honestly, even if the Twins look good in 2026 and have a competitive year, were I an owner, I'd STILL have questions about ONE GUY trying to handle BOTH SIDES of an organization. Even if the Twins have a solid 2026, I'd seriously just remove Falvey from the baseball side and bring in someone else to just run the baseball side of things. In today's market, IMO, it's just too hard to have ONE GUY in charge of so much. So yes, Falvey is on a "hot seat" to prove he can fill dual roles. And while I like a lot of what he's done in his tenure, I've also seen enough that he should be moved permanently to one role, the business side, and bring in someone else to "tweak" what Falvey STARTED and make it better.
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How the Twins Can Still Save the Carlos Correa Trade
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd like this idea better if it was 1yr and not 2. But he had 3 straight. 800+ OPS seasons before 2025. Starting slow and finishing strong is much better than the opposite way around. And the $ works. No need for Larnach any longer, so a drop or trade removes almost $5M. IF you want to include ALL of Bell's deal for 2026...it's really only a little above $5M with the rest part of a 2027 buyout...the payroll sits about $92-93M. If Houston pays half of Walker's deal, he really only costs $10M. So the payroll is $102-103M. I'd say the over/under on payroll is $115M. (I'd bet over, but I digress). That's $12M to spend on a pair of decent, experienced pen arms. Meanwhile, you've added a true 1B with power who hopefully has some gas left, and Bell moves to primary DH. And you haven't blocked anyone in the OF or INF regarding prospects. I don't dislike this idea. It makes some sense and works. But again, I really only like it for 1yr. It's the 2nd year that bothers me. I'd more likely guess they'll either trade for a younger 1B, or sign a less expensive bench option on a 1yr.- 37 replies
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- carlos correa
- christian walker
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I've gone over some various thoughts and ideas since I read the opening post by @Major League Ready. You can agree with my various thoughts, or disagree, and that's fine. But I see some thibgs that actually can be done to win fans back over again. And these are not in any particular order. 1] Treat the fan base as intelligent, informed human beings and stop the BS of incredibly insincere and poorly written statements or foot-in-mouth public statements. So far so good 1st day on the job. 2] I agree with MAKE A PLAN ideas, and I've been screaming that for months now. I want to see a PLAN in place. Tom talks about accountability and making changes as necessary. OK. I am NOT asking for someone's head on a platter. It's too early for that at this point, a hopeful begining of change. But accountability, in this scenario, begins from the head of baseball on down. That means Falvey down to Zoll, and coaches, and instructors within the system. I'M of the belief the team actually has a really solid core that has underperformed, but possesses real talent and potential. And I see reservoir of young talent that has JUST debuted, or is ready to in 2026. DO WE SEE improvement? If not, Falvey should probably be moved to the business side only and bring someone else in with a different vision that will trickle down to Zoll, and coaches, and instructors, etc. PROVE you want accountability. 3] DON'T sell off your talent at the deadline unless it is CLEARLY a baseball decision to do so because the team is floundering. I DON'T expect this to be a lousy team, but there is a difference between playing hard, hanging around .500-ish, and just being BAD. 4] If the 2026 version of the Twins hits the deadline around .500-ish, don't SQUASH opportunity if a move or two might make a difference to raise the bar for a shot at making the playoffs. (Similar to not selling for the sake of selling). 5] I actually agree with Tom Pohlad that just throwing $50-60M more to the payroll TODAY doesn't make sense. First of all, it's already a little late to do so. But ALSO, 2026 is really about taking underperforming talent and getting it PERFORMING better. SECOND, rookies, and near rookies, are poised to be a part of this team, or make their debuts. I am NOT saying rookies and near rookies will suddenly look like stars overnight, but depending on WHAT LIST of prospects, or recent graduates, you want to look at, universally, Rodriguez, Jenkins, Gonzalez, K-Pepper, Abel, Prielipp, and Morris are ALL in the top 10-12 and should be part of 2026 at some point. And there might even be a surprise or two. Roden is basically a rookie. Lee was damn near rookie status entering 2025. BUT...don't be CHEAP about 2026...which leads me to... 6] I can see a $115 payroll. But I can also see a $120M payroll with a little Falvey push. And I'm not saying that's great. But ever $M helps. There's an honest idea that Larnach is moved in a package for SOMETHING, that we all hope is a decent, young BP arm of some value. It makes sense. If they CAN’T find a package deal, I'd hope they just cut losses and save his projected $4.7M and free up the $ for someone else. Bell's BAT plays. HOPEFULLY they can mitigate his defense. But he should only be the start. Between the various smart ideas already laid out by posters and TD employees, a Larnach removal either ADDS another BP option, or his complete removal just adds to the $ to spend on FA. But this also adds to.... 7] IF Larnach is moved in a deal for a RP, that's great. If not, frankly, he should be simply let go and let his $ pay forward. Even with a limited payroll, there are intriguing options for the pen. Grab Rogers for $5-6M. Find the best RH arm available for $6-7M. I'm not naming names because there ARE options. The numbers aren't that hard. Even though part of Bell's contract is tied to a buyout in 2027, we can still call it as $7M if we want. Larnach gone, we are STILL only adding $12-13M for the pen. And we're still only in the $105-107M if my math is even close to correct. So don't blink if the FO wants to another bat or BP option. You want to PROVE you have commitment, then don't balk if $115M is pushed to $120M from your FO to make a couple adds that make sense. 8] Extend Jeffers. Maybe others as well. But for example, the Twins have NOTHING beyond Jeffers for the next 2-3 years as a quality catcher. You really want to dip in to FA in 2027 for a catcher option? Why not keep what you have? I'm just offering a LOT of examples of what what Tom Pohlad, the NEW MAN IN CHARGE could do to build a team, but also bring the fan base back. Are the 8 points I brought up hard? Not really. They are consecutive with everything he spoke about. It's up to HIM to actually make these things a reality.
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I think his extremely low RBI numbers are partially due to luck, (poor), as well as opportunity, (lack thereof), as well as his spot in the order. I don't recall exactly how often he hit in the top spots vs the bottom of the order, but he wasn't coming up to the plate with a lot of runners OB, best I can recall. The excitement is more the 20 point increase in AVG and the 30 point increase in OB%. He also looked really good in LF and even made a handful of hilight plays, rather than looking like a confused squirrel looking for a lost walnut. He just looked like a confident, legitimate ML ballplayer. I'm still worried about his lack of pop/power, but he just looked like a much better, more competent hitter in 2025. I don't know if he's a starter in 2026 or a role player. But he actually looks like he might be a solid table setter either in one of the first 2 spots in the order, or in the 9 hole turning the roster over. A year ago, I really had my doubts. I'm cautiously optimistic about him now.
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- bailey ober
- byron buxton
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Wow! Just read a quote from Tom Pohlad stating they basically BLEW IT after the successful 2023 season. I can see more and more the division within the family of Joe being pushed out, unless he's the fall guy, unnamed, for massive mistakes ownership has made. Is this ownership speak? Or is this honesty for the first time?
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I tend to agree with the final record projection. And I agree with optimism for some players rebounding for better 2026 numbers. Chief in that inclusion is Wallner, Lewis, and Ober. But I disagree HOW they came up with their projections. I completely disagree with any positive numbers from Outman and Julien, who I frankly don't know how they possibly make the team. And I disagree in regard to LF. Martin appears to have finally turned a corner as a solid player. And I think Roden is a lot better prospect/player than what he showed as a rookie in a very limited number of PA/AB. Neither is a star player, but they both have some decent potential. But with both Rodriguez and Jenkins sitting at AAA, and I don't want to exclude Gonzalez, there will be a "shift" at some point in 2026 in regard to the OF. And I like Lee better than the ZIPS projections. He was better defensively after the Correa trade when he played his natural position. He's only average, but I can accept that for now. His BAT needs to improve for sure! I don't disagree on the SP side due to depth of arms and potential. I do think they undersold a healthy Ober, however. I do disagree in regard to the bullpen. They give too much credit to the last 2 months. I mean, I HOPE Funderburk has finally turned a corner as he has good stuff. Topa is a decent 7th man, unless he suddenly recaptures his 2023 season. Based on 2024 and the last 2 months of 2025, I do accept Sands as pretty solid. But the pen is a negative, IMO, unless and until we factor in 2 really solid, veteran additions, and move SOMEONE internally to the pen. Probably Festa in a move that makes so much sense I can't believe the Twins haven't already announced it. Yes, anywhere from around 75-85 wins for 2026 is what I'm looking at. Primarily due to the pen, and rebounds from some key performers. But pausing for a moment, Lee's bat improves and he continues to play adequate defense for now, Lewis is healthy and starts to "being Lewis" even if he's not at Superman level, and Wallner is closer to the hitter he was in 2023-24. Sorry ZIPS, but Bell at 1B is a hell of a lot better than France. By the 2nd half of the season, if not before, we see Rodriguez, Jenkins, and K-Pepper. Just like 2023, the prospects start to make a difference. Ober is healthy, and SWR continues the rise we saw last season. WHO takes over the #5 role? The depth is great, and needed. The pen still needs at least 2 solid, quality veteran options to lead the way. But the coaching staff and FO also need to take advantage of the arm talent on hand and make a couple serious moves. Again, Festa could end up as the next great closer in a long line. But he might need some time to slide in to that spot, which is why it's so important to just add a couple solid veterans. And MAYBE Funderburk turned a corner, but I'd sure like another LH FA option for 2026. I'm still a believer in Sands. But I'd feel better if he was the #4 guy entering 2026. I continue to say I can see a path for a solid, competitive 2026 season with upticks from current players, TOP prospects debuting, and a couple smart FA additions. So while I disagree with some of the ZIPS projections, I easily see a bottom end of 75 wins and a top end of 85. I can see injuries and struggles offensively yet again. And I can see an ill conceived bullpen losing games and the Twins are sitting at 70-75 wins. But baseball gods help me, I can see a path with a new manager, a new hitting coach, health and rebounds from Ober, Lewis, Wallner, improvement from Lee, the depth of rotation talent/potential, a few smart moves added to the pen, a couple conversion to the pen, top prospects so close to making an impact, (sigh), I can actually see an 85 win team who could MAYBE reach 90 wins if things break right. Go ahead and call me nuts or crazy. But we have the potential for a very good starting staff with depth. There's a lot of potential in the lineup with guys who underperformed in 2025. We're starting to add more defense and speed in the OF, and potentially in the INF. We have 3 of our top prospects in the OF knocking on the door. And K-Pepper is not far away in the INF. I'm really not crazy. We could have a poor team who underperforms in 2026 and just busts. But if you really look at the "potential" of this team, and the prospects almost ready, and add a couple smart moves, making the playoffs is not a dream.
- 17 replies
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- bailey ober
- byron buxton
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Miguel Sanó Finds a New Chapter in Japan
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Good for him. Hope this means he still loves the game. But even if he does really well, considering age, I'm not sure this is a ticket back to MLB. -
In theory, the OP is correct. But the OP is also rather short sighted. The most glaring oversight is not including Lewis in the discussion, or any mention of Houston as part of the discussion as well. And I'm going to leave out other INF in the system that might still rise, or at least become valuable utility options as that's not really pertinent to this discussion. Lewis is the 3B for now. Period. Does he have a lot to prove in 2026? You bet. Playing the most games of his career and looking much better then2nd half of 2025 and even having the legs to run provides optimism beyond simply being a talented 26yo. Could he end up at 1B at some point if that turns out to be the best alignment of talent? Sure. But so could Keaschall. And speaking of Keaschall, I don't have a problem with him playing some OF. He clearly has some aptitude and talent to do so. But I strongly disapprove of not giving him the time needed to improve at 2B. He's a very good athlete. He gets to balls. A healthy arm will help his throwing. But my goodness, his playing time there has been so disjointed due to arm injuries that he needs TIME to actually play the position and settle in. Lee has the instincts and hands to become a solid 3B or 2B. For now, he's the SS and has to improve there. I believe he will. He was better there in 2025 after the Correa trade. It's jus natural, most comfortable spot. But he's not going to be the long term answer there. And he absolutely, positively has to improve his offense. But he's also damn young and came in to 2025 with ONLY about 180 ML AB. So let's cut him a little slack, OK? But there's also the potential that he becomes a 4 position super utility INF. That would not be a poor outcome, despite being a 1st round pick. K-Pepper should take SS away from Lee, more than likely, in the 2nd half of 2026, barring major improvement from Lee.. He's just a better athlete. But he also played a lot of 3B in college, so he could be a factor there in a year or so, depending on how this turns out. And I don't think there's much doubt he could be a hell of a 2B. While Houston was just drafted, he appears to be a really fine SS. He's also got some speed, and some pop/power. (He's not a small kid). As an experienced, college selection, there's at least a chance this time next year he's following the same path as Keaschall and Culpepper where he's ready for AAA in 2027. No pressure, I'm just saying. And with a solid, all around offensive profile, if his defense is as good as advertised, HE might be the starting SS at some point in 2027 or 2028. He wouldn't have to be a Silver Slugger candidate if his defense turns out to be legit. That frees up Keaschall and Lee for WHATEVER position and role is best for them, and the TEAM. And while I really don't want to put the cart before the horse, as things stand TODAY, the Twins MIGHT select another college SS in the next draft as the best player available. Now, that's REALLY extending the INF discussion as we have a LONG WAY to go before the 2026 draft. But in theory, Alabama SS Lebron is currently the #3 best prospect as of TODAY. You NEVER apologize for having "too much talent" in your system. Instead, you FIND a way to make it work. And sometimes kids just never turn out despite their talent and projections. But in THEORY, over the next 2 seasons, the Twins will have to "fit" Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, K-Pepper, and Houston in to their roster and lineup. Maybe Lewis or Keaschall end up at 1B. Maybe Keaschall ends up in the OF flanked by Jenkins and Rodriguez. Maybe Lee becomes a valuable 4.position super utility player. The reality is, I DON'T CARE. Develop them, get them up here, and then figure it out from there. You FIND A WAY to play your best players. And that's why some versatility is a GOOD THING. It's also a reason to feel really good about the projection of the Twins INF going forward, even though we really haven't talked about other potential 1B options in detail.
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- brooks lee
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I like this move on the surface at least. We've all become jaded by how the Pohlads run the Twins. But I would say this is definitely the biggest change since Carl bought the team in the 80's. There are new partners that are going to want some return on their investment. That's good. That puts pressure on the Pohlads to do things better. And maybe they bring in some ideas of their own. I feel a little bad for Joe as I believe he really did want to be partner running the Twins. But I don't think he did very well, and he certainly embarrassed himself a few times with various comments made. As @jkcarewsstated, Tom spoke good words. But they are only words until we see action. Despite what I believe to be a worthwhile jaded attitude towards ownership, I think, as fans, we should feel at least a little encouraged by what Tom said. It at least appears he understands and recognizes changes have to be made, and there has to be an accountability factor. Personally, I'm willing to give him and this new reorganization a chance, even if I remain skeptical. And change doesn't happen overnight. And until the impending labor situation is settled come 2027, I don't know that we will necessarily recognize immediate changes. There's a lot to unpack over the next 24 months. There will be changes at the MLB level, hopefully positive ones. The new partners are going to have at least some say with this new direction. The debt will now be eliminated, or at least lowered greatly. And Tom has basically said the Twins haven't been run well. Again, all positive sentiments. I don't think anyone ever expects the Twins to function as a top payroll organization. But not being in the bottom third of MLB in payroll should be an obtainable goal in the future. And based on his statements, I'm betting Falvey, and perhaps Zoll, are going to be feeling some heat in the near future. The reorganization has begun. Change can be good, and was much needed. Now it's time over the next 24 months or so to see those changes actually take place.
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With no personal insult intended, Kriedler has been a mediocre MILB hitter. And while SSS, his MLB numbers are on par, or worse, than many ML pitchers in the NL before the universal DH came in to play! How EXCEMPTIONAL must be his defense to even warrant a 40 man spot vs even being on a ML roster? He's better than Ozzie Smith? He can turn double plays and triple plays by himself? Come on! He should be the easiest DFA tomorrow when the Twins sign their next FA. And he probably will be. While Fitzgerald isn't special, he's at least competent as a glove man, has some speed and pop, and is a much better projected hitter. And we're talking Mendoza line against even lower expectation. I'd even be willing to state the Twins might be able to make a minor trade for someone else's AAA 26-27yo SS with a good glove and SOME talent/ability to be better than Kreidler. I've always believed he was signed for St Paul for depth and will be removed from the 40 man as soon as a FA was signed. He should slip through easily. So this is probably nothing about nothing. TODAY, Fitzgerald is still the utility player and backup SS for 2026 barring another move or surprise.
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Why the Twins Didn't Sign Luis Arraez
DocBauer replied to Greggory Masterson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I have extremely fond memories of Arraez as a Twin, and what he accomplished. It was a sad/happy day when he was moved for Lopez. But memories of Arraez as a Twin don't mean he's the same hitter he was AS a Twin. I agree with Gleeman that...for some reason unfathomable to me..."analytics" has become a sour word for many. Change "analytics" to "information" in your mind and it might make more sense. INFORMATION has been used in baseball almost since it's inception. EXAMPLE: bring in a LH from the pen to face a key LH batter in a key moment. Arraez is/was an extremely gifted HITTER. But he never had speed, and never had much power. Period. The INFORMATION presented in the OP is actually very simple, he doesn't BB very much, and he's swinging more and more at pitches that aren't strikes, believing he can contact the ball for hits that don't happen. It's not an insult to the Arraez we knew and loved as a Twin. It's just a fact. And it's why his AVG and OB% have been dipping. What troubles me as a fan of Arraez is that you would almost EXPECT that as a veteran hitter, he might become MORE selective at the plate as an almost 29yo veteran, taking some BB, waiting for a good pitch to hit, etc. Instead, his trend has been to be LESS selective. MAYBE he can be "fixed" and become the HITTER he was earlier in his career. But the INFORMATION says he's on a downward plane. This is NOT an insult to Arraez, but he's just not a great athlete. He has had knee problems. He doesn't run especially well and is not a great defender. He doesn't have a lot of power. So when his GIFT of being a special HITTER suddenly declines, what do you have other than a bench player, PH? MAYBE, and HOPEFULLY Arraez finds his previous, much more disciplined self and hits over .300 again and helps his next team as a top of the order hitter. Again, I'm a FAN and want the best for him. But he isn't a fit for what the Twins need right now, whether you like the Bell signing or not. -
Just wanted to say I'd dance a jig if he could pull that off again. From what I hear...I'm really not familiar with him...the defense is legit, and so is his arm. Considering how low the bar is for offense from backup catchers, I'd even settle for something around .200 if he could stroke some doubles and a hand and a half of HR when he DOES make contact.
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OK, finally home and settled and have a chance to comment. A few personal items to mention first. #1] I wanted Bell last offseason. I don't know if 1 year younger makes a major difference, but I thought he was an inexpensive addition to the lineup as a DH/1B who could help. So I can't exactly bash his signing now. #2] For THIS offseason...realizing a month or so ago Naylor was a pipedream...I wanted O'Hearn or the less expensive Lowe on a 2yr deal to "settle" 1B for a couple of years to allow the Twins to FINALLY find their 1B of the future either within the system, or via trade. I didn't care that neither was a true "slugger". I saw a pair of solid 1B who could HIT, have a decent OB%, decent power, and solid career splits. OK, so that's out of the way. Despite NOT getting what I wanted, and what I thought was the smarter move...baseball wise, screw the Pohlads idea of a payroll...I don't dislike this move within the vacuum of the current roster and speculated payroll. I 100% understand the frustration with the Twins looking to "raise the floor" instead of the ceiling. And I'm on @chpettit19 bandwagon of objecting to limited thinking, just as I'm on the @Riverbrianobjection to yet another 1yr rental at 1B. So please don't accuse me of blowing smoke about this signing. Again, it's not exactly what I wanted, even though I kinda like it. BUT, what we got is a solid, consistent career production BAT. He has really solid numbers against RHP, and except for 2025, he's maintained a pretty solid career OPS vs LHP. He's not a good defensive 1B. He's better as a DH who CAN play 1B. But I found it very interesting listening to the G&G podcast today when it was pointed that a 3rd party had pertinent information that the Twins defensive alignment over the past few seasons had their 1B playing closer to the bag than most teams. That might help explain how/why Sano, Arraez, Solano, and even France might have been better than expected. What we don't know yet is whether Bell was signed to be the primary 1B, or a primary DH, or a mix. And if you believe in WAR, Bell has lost points as a defender from his overall production. But what if the defensive alignment the Twins are supposedly known for allow Bell to just stay closer to the bag to make sure outs are outs? Well, it puts more pressure on the rest of the INF...not necessarily a good thing...but if he can reach and scoop properly, he might not suck at 1B entirely. What if this also allows the addition of someone like Andujar, who has been speculated as a possible signing? Just spitballing here, but he "can" play 3B/OF corners here and there, as well as 1B. This adds a RH bench bat helps Clemens as a now utility player. NOT saying that's the next move, only saying I can see a path for another solid bat to maybe be added. REGARDING THE LINEUP FOR 2026: Well, I guess we're talking about Opening Day and ASSUMING the FO won't make a major move such as Rodriguez or Jenkins to open the season due to youth and possible control possibities. Larnach, more than ever, has no place. Again, I don't dislike him, but there is NO FIT. HOPEFULLY he's packaged with a lower level prospect or 2 for a decent RP option to a team in need for a solid LH bat against RHP. A decent prospect at worst. He's a solid player, but he just doesn't fit the 2026 team. Clemens as a utility player who can play some 1B, Bell as a 1B/DH and Andujar, or a similar signing, on the cheap, really can raise the floor. But I digress a bit here offering speculation for an Opening Day roster when we still don't know all the potential moves to be made. Bell is NOT a difference maker. But he's a solid player who deepens the lineup with solid career numbers. There is world that isn't fantasy where Buxton and Lewis and Wallner are all healthy and have solid seasons where Bell is MUCH better than what France provided. I can see an Opening Day Lineup with Keaschall #1, and maybe an old school lineup with Roden/Martin #2 with hitting and OB% ability to allow Buxton to drive in runs. Behind him SHOULD BE a mix of Lewis getting right and Wallner rebounding to what he was in 2023-24. Bell comes next at a 6 spot. That's a solid lineup. But let's just accept the fact that Bell was signed for that role. And if he does better, that's great. But he wasn't signed to be a difference maker in the 3-5 slot. He was meant to augment what's on hand. It's on Falvey, the players, new hitting coaches, and even Bell to make a lineup like that work. And it would be a really solid lineup. But come June 1st, for an arbitrary date, Rodriguez and Jenkins are pounding at the door, what happens? The DH spot gets more crowded and interesting. But to START the season, I just can't be disgruntled by adding a solid BAT with power and proven production considering how many games have been lost the past few seasons by 1 or 2 runs. I just can't hate this signing even though it's not crazy good.
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IMO, the 8th spot in the pen, currently, is between Ohl and Adams. WAIT, what about the other 7 spots? There's still a LOT to be figured out between trades and signings. So I'm ONLY focusing on the OP. I don't take a lot of belief in any rookie arms initial appearance. Stuff plays up in the bullpen. I think Adams has a chance. His STUFF isn't great, but I saw enough movement on some of his pitches to believe he might become a functional reliever with some upside. But I like Ohl more. While he slipped in 2024, he's always shown solid control. His FB touches 95 these days. His change is excellent. I don't think his potential is as good as Sands at this point, I think his change has the potential to move him from the #8 spot, sacrifical lamb to ride the St Paul shuttle, to being a solid, dependable middle arm. His experience as a former SP might make him a 2 IP pen arm you can count on. Anything more than that is questionable projection and TBD.
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What Should the Twins Do About the Middle Infield?
DocBauer replied to Alex Boxwell's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's a sound idea in principle, but I'm also looking for more than 1yr stop gaps where possible. And I don't like giving up on 24yo ish players too early for said stop gaps. I've said before, I think the Twins will have 2 different halves of a season. I say that because of players on hand, some of whom are young and developing, like Lee and Keaschall, and still quite young like Lewis and Wallner, Martin, and Roden. And in the very near future, K-Pepper, Rodriguez, Jenkins, and maybe even Gonzalez are going to be pounding at the door. That doesn't mean I want to "give away" the first few months of the season, of course. I'm taking the conversation of Keaschall playing some OF with a major dose of salt. It's not dissimilar to Lewis preparing for 2B in 2025 before the FO just went, "meh, forget about it". Keaschall has played OF before. He might again. Nothing wrong with being versatile. But who then plays 2B? Utility LH bat Clemens? Why? You've got Martin and Roden in LF, Rodriguez, Jenkins, and Gonzalez on the way. What does this accomplish? Keaschall primarily played a lot of OF in MILB because of his pending elbow surgery. It's also the reason he played a lot of 1B. Did he look rough at times playing 2B in 2025? Yes he did. But he's also barely played it the last 2yrs! He's got the athleticism to play the position but obviously needs time to just get back to the basic fundamentals of playing the position again. And that's where his focus should be. It makes so much sense I shouldn't even have to go on. Lee is OK, but not great at SS. But he did look better once he played there daily post Correa being traded. It's not his long term home. But I can live with an average SS and a talented, athletic, young 2B who needs some work/time vs "giving up" too early on their potential, at least in the case of Keaschall. Especially when 1B and the bullpen are much larger current concerns. K-Pepper looks to be on the fast track. I can see him up as early as June 1st if he just keeps his current development profile going strong. He's almost assuredly going to be better than Lee. Even with improvement with the glove, and his bat, there's room for Lee as a 4 position super utility player at the least. Think Castro with 1B, but no OF work. And it's possible he takes over 2B and Keaschall becomes a full time 1B eventually. Nothing wrong with that. You can't have too much talent on your team, no matter who plays what. But you just DON'T give up on Keaschall as a 2B this early with all of his athleticism and potential. That's just silly. Lewis, Lee, Keaschall, and TBD is your starting 2026 INF opening day. Substitute K-Pepper at SS at some point, and your depth and options change tremendously from where they are today.- 84 replies
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- brooks lee
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Twins Should Look to Baltimore for First Base Help
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Pre 2025 Mountcastle is a solid player, even though there was a sight decline in 2023-24. But at 29yo for 2026 I'm willing to bet on a bounce back version of him for a prospect deal. Maybe it starts with Matthews, for example? Mayo may have power and projection, and might be a long term solution, but I don't like moving a part of the rotation for a 1B only prospect unless I feel really confident he's going to turn out. I mean, there's a pretty reasonable chance he does, but SWR is about the highest offer I can think to offer. I don't like filling 1 hole and then creating another one in the rotation, unless the Twins are feeling pretty confident about Bradley, Matthews, Abel, and Morris stepping up in 2026. Truth be told, they SHOULD feel good about them all taking that next step, or something has gone wrong. Considering the relative youth of the Orioles, I'd still begin the discussion with someone like Matthews and then...gulp...maybe someone like Soto as a high ceiling arm a couple years away, but with tremendous potential? But then I reflect on just spending some $ on O'Hearn or Lowe for 2yrs to stabilize the position and KEEP the rotation and prospects instead. And I guess that's where my head is at. -
If the Twins could actually get for 2yrs and $12M IMO. That price should still leave room for a couple solid pen arms as well. If that cost is accurate, and Falvey says they have $ to add, they should JUMP on him, IMO, for a couple of years and stop the revolving door at 1B for the immediate future. For once, make the smart, early signing and then sit back on the pen arms and wait out the market if that's what they choose to do again.
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The Twins are All-In on Royce Lewis (Again)
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Can we, for a moment, just STOP with the Lewis articles? This has to be the most ridiculous "I need to be paid" article #5 or 6 since the 2025 season ended. I'll just get everything negative out of the way. He's been injured a lot. He speaks before he thinks sometimes because he wears his heart/frustration on his sleeve. Someone should tell him to think before he speaks because he gets ripped when he says something honest, but is taken out of context, at least to some degree. What's SELDOM ever offered up is an honest confession early in 2025....where we finally saw the perpetual optimism wall Royce always puts up...is how frustraded he has actually been. After TWO knee surgeries, rehab, and physical changes, he's no longer the speedster SS drafted. Instead, he's a quality 3B with a TON of talent who has been mitigated post DUAL knee surgeries that he has admitted to robbing him of control and confidence in his approach. Imagine that? He finally admitted he's only human despite some of the amazing performances he's produced in limited opportunity. He played the most games of his career in 2025. He was slightly above ML average the 2nd half of 2025. His defense improved. He was actually so healthy for the 2nd half that he began to run again! Those are ALL positive signs that his ongoing physical therapy to prevent muscle injuries and re-knewed confidence are taking hold. But if you expect SUPERMAN for 2026 and beyond, even considering some of the crazy performances Lewis HAS done, you're just fooling yourself. All he has to do is bat .270 and OB of about .325 and SLUG 35 Dbls with 25 HR per season. That ISN'T SUPERMAN. But that's a damn fine ballplayer! Still only 26yo, you want to bet against him?- 36 replies
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I believe the term Zoll used was looking for a "thumper". Personally, I think that's a poor choice or words. Who might be a potential Cruz sitting out there that we can grab cheaply? I think "quality bat" might be more accurate. Everyone is going to be sick of me saying this...I'm almost sick of saying it myself...but why not Nathaniel Lowe? He settles 1B for 2yrs at $18-20M, and provides a solid, quality hitter with a career .771 OPS, even though he had a down 2025. (But still provided power and RBI). He's also got a .729 career OPS against LHP so he DOESN'T have to be platooned. Is he a "thumper"? No. But he's a quality hitter with some power and a 12.2 career WAR that fills an important spot in the INF and the lineup. He's not as "old" as others that the Twins supposedly are interested in, and shouldn't be expensive. And with an undetermined but not large payroll, every $M saved is a little more to be spent on the bullpen. But speaking of the bullpen...since it's been brought up in this thread about bats...they need TWO solid, decent, veteran additions to just lead the way. And I'm not talking about the inevitable MILB FA fliers they bring in with hopes of finding the next Thielbar or Stewart, etc, who we HOPE they uncover. They need 2 decent veterans to help lead the way instead of just going with rookie converts. From the LH side, it's not hard to look at Coulombe, Thielbar, Rogers, or Chafin as older guys who are ALL coming off really solid 2025 seasons. They should cost around $3-4M. Just pick one you really trust for one more good year. Maybe Funderburk's last 2 months are an indication he turned a corner. And maybe Prielipp really does convert to the pen. (There's also a handful of interesting LH arms that might be ready at some point in 2026). But you add the stability of a decent veteran. From the RH side, I'm just not going to offer up possibilities for the simple reason as there are WAY too many options and tangents of possibilities. We could go all the way from Finnigan being affordable to Pressly having ONE MORE good season in his arm after a good start to 2025 and a lousy finish. But find ONE you think has a good 2026 in his arm, and you really change the complexion of the 2026 Twins BP. Digressing somewhat, but am I the only one who believes Larnach was offered arbitration to "set the floor" until another bat was added? I remain of the opinion he will be dropped if needed, but the Twins remain hopeful of moving him, and his almost $5M to a team needing a solid LH platoon bat for a prospect(s), or part of a package for someone's young 4th or 5th best BP arm. His almost $5M makes a difference in a limited payroll situation and a crowded OF. I'm hopeful of a smart deal that provides such, but I'm 50-50 a deal for immediate value will happen. So I'm leaving any possible, hopeful addition out of this discussion. (But DAMN, it would be nice if the FO could be creative here!). FA, FA, Sands, Funderburk, Orze, Topa, Ohl/Adams isn't exciting. But it's not a horrible start. And I don't care about who says what about whom, but SOMEONE from the collection of SP options is going to move to the pen. And while I despise the idea of giving up the potential of a young SP, don't most of us all just recognize that Festa is meant to be in the pen? He's damn near devastating 1 time through the order, good the 2nd time, but then he starts to fail a bit. And while his shoulder issues in 2025 shouldn't be the determining factor, it adds to the ultimate conclusion. I'd STILL have him working on his 2 seamer for an additional weapon, unless they see a better option instead. His FB plays up even better in a short stint. He's got a great slider and a solid change. And he has a deceptive, whip like delivery that doesn't hurt. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Matthews or Bradley is the better move to the pen. But I think Festa is on the Duran path. And Falvey has mentioned Prielipp as a possibility, which kind of kills a hopeful part of me, but I've also started to give in to logic. You ADD Lowe, IMO, and ADD 2 solid FA pen additions for a combined total of around $20-22M, with Larnach gone, the payroll still sits at an absurd $105-107M. Frankly, that sucks. $110M allows for 1 more decent pen option, or maybe a better UTILITY option. $115M MIGHT offer both. A $120M, which has been MY projected option all along, might allow both. While I refuse to escape the ridiculous way ownership is running things, the truth is the Twins DO have talent on hand, even if there were under performance players in 2025. And even though $120M payroll...my hope and expectation...is ridiculously low, they have a lot of low contracts for 2026 with about half of their top 10 prospects about to debut next season to provide both help and excitement. Sorry for being so long winded. There's just so many moving parts, even with a limited payroll, that I can see a team in 2 parts with a good rotation, a decent bullpen that might be better later, and a lineup that can be good, and even better come June or July. I just don't see a team that should be dismantled.

