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Hosken Bombo Disco

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Everything posted by Hosken Bombo Disco

  1. Hosken Bombo Disco
    Just to be clear, the 95.9% was from June 3rd. Today the division is at 84% which is predicting a 5 out of 6 chance. (please no RR jokes here!). I think 84% is still too high. It would be interesting to see how many division leaders with 4 game leads at this point, do go on to win. Or if they get passed up in the standings, or whatever. I think 5 out of 6 might be a touch high (but not much). Anyway I agree the standings are much more likely to remain neck and neck and I do also think the Twins are capable of pulling away again, even if by virtue of Cleveland faltering again at some point. .... Anyone else? I'm genuinely looking for insight into this probability thing John raised, and how FOs might think about it
  2. Hosken Bombo Disco
    I've always felt that the postseason probabilities are just another way to interpret the standings. The standings are the standings, and the probabilities are derived from that. Nothing more. I mean, are the Twins still 96% sure to win the division? The Nationals 12.5% chance to grab a Wild Card? So, you play the game and see what happens. Even assuming the front offices have their own proprietary data, using a playoff probability would seem like a poor reason to give up on the season in July with two months left. Maybe not necessarily for the back of NL Wildcard group this year, but for a team chasing down another team for a division lead (like the AL Central the past few seasons), I think so. It just seems misguided and a sleight to the fans. Thoughts?
  3. Hosken Bombo Disco
    Disagree completely. Every team goes through these funks. The regular season is six months long, they play nearly every day, plus add spring training and most of February. Keeping an even keel is essential to turning this back around (among other things, and yes they need to start playing better again too).
  4. Hosken Bombo Disco
    See bolded. If anything, he might have took Perez out too soon today. caveats: I didn't see the game, and according to the article Perez had a rough go in the 4th and 5th, but it looks like the 6th went well enough, and the bottom of the Mets order was due up in the 7th. Day to day, that's probably the toughest decision a manager has to make. Not always obviously, but day in, day out, is when to give your starter one more batter or one more inning. In general I lean towards "leave 'em in, let 'em work out of it" with the starter, myself. Though with limited catcher visits nowadays maybe that idea should change.
  5. Hosken Bombo Disco
    Oh well. Rough patch.
  6. Hosken Bombo Disco
    I think Marwin will be in right for the time being. He’s turned into a pretty important piece. Agree about Arraez!
  7. Hosken Bombo Disco
    True.
  8. Hosken Bombo Disco
    Twins fans dwell on the errors the Twins make, but forget the errors of the other team by the next half inning. The double play by Sano and Garver was pretty good.
  9. Hosken Bombo Disco
    That walk by Arraez would have gone down in Twins lore had the Twins won the game.
  10. Hosken Bombo Disco
    Another great report. This is just top notch stuff.
  11. Hosken Bombo Disco
    Another poster upthread had it right, I think—the smart play is to take off for third, but check part way to see where the throw is going. And on plays like that, I think everyone just assumes Buxton is going to be safe anyway.
  12. Hosken Bombo Disco
    Agree.
  13. Hosken Bombo Disco
    In addition to what ashbury said, in contrast to Duffey, what I like about Harper is it looks like he can throw his curve in any count to any location.
  14. Hosken Bombo Disco
    I agree completely. Despite the lack of big names in the bullpen and frankly some insanely good luck at times, I think there’s a method to the madness. I think many times the team really does know what will get the opponent’s batters out, and is able to successfully translate that information back to the pitching staff and catchers, and they have been executing well! We are a long way from “attacking the zone” and getting that “first pitch strike” though that 0-1 count, if you can get to it, is still important too, obviously.
  15. Hosken Bombo Disco
    Thanks for the check. I don’t have much experience with it.
  16. Hosken Bombo Disco
    He’s been an absolute rock in that rotation. What a loss, for him and the team. The good news is it sounds like he’s in the road to beat this.
  17. Hosken Bombo Disco
    Joe’s never been to Wisconsin? Come on, it’s like Czechoslovakia.
  18. Hosken Bombo Disco
    The Twins also have the most road wins, adding some “bottom of 9th” innings they wouldn’t otherwise have.
  19. Hosken Bombo Disco
    He has a different style, for sure. But I think we can give him a lot of credit for where the team is, heading into the All Star break.
  20. Hosken Bombo Disco
    You may be right. My impression is of Molitor in years past calling for bunt after bunt, and no one on the team able to lay down an effective bunt. Maybe Buxton is a good bunter when it’s his own idea, and not when there’s a play call and it’s not his idea.
  21. Hosken Bombo Disco
    No, but there is a rule that allows the team to leave him off the playoff roster.
  22. Hosken Bombo Disco
    On the suicide squeeze —as someone in the game thread commented, it was a nice throwback to 1900s baseball Personally I did not like the call there, especially because Buxton has shown over and over he is bad at bunting. Know your personnel. Edit: As Chief said, yeah the runner on third was running with the pitch. I’m surprised the team even has signs for bunting at all, let alone the squeeze play. I also have to ask, in the 10th, I thought the camera showed Baldelli signaling for an intentional walk to Canha. I didn’t have audio at that point so don’t know what broadcasters were saying. But the screen graphics were even updated to show bases loaded. But then Canha batted with runners on first and third. Is this something a manager can change his mind about, or what am I missing? And then Canha grounded into that tag play at the plate, which could have easily went the other way. Good to escape with a win last night. I think escape is the right word.
  23. Hosken Bombo Disco
    I’m keeping Lewis but willing to part with Kirilloff, Graterol, and another low minor arm (though there are some minors pitchers I would prefer to keep). I have very little to base this on, but my gut tells me that insiders do not have Kirilloff rated as high as the national list makers do.
  24. Hosken Bombo Disco
    Damn, and I was hoping to drive down and watch him pitch this weekend, but, other things ... Time is running short — he may not be in Cedar Rapids much longer!
  25. Hosken Bombo Disco
    The other side of the coin is for the list makers to not stay married to their picks if those picks aren’t working out. You guys do great work. I value your opinions infinitely more than any of the national list makers. I tried making my own prospect list this spring, but it was too difficult. I only got to about 6 or 7 before realizing I didn’t know what the hell I was doing and could only go off of highlight clips, reading between the lines, and second hand reports. However, there have been some very good first-hand reports on Gordon that talk about more than just the results of his plate appearances. We’ve all seen Arraez if even for a brief period now, and it looks like he belongs. Arraez looks like he will be better than Gordon, if not necessarily better than what we want Gordon to become (if that makes sense). True true true true true (if you are doing it right)
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