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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    They all have sub-channels showing 30 year old reruns that would work for broadcasting the Twins. Channel 45 would be a great fit for Twins games.
  2. DJL44
    Montana can just subscribe to MLB.tv if they want. The key to this is EVERYONE should be able to subscribe to MLB.tv and see the Twins, regardless of where they live.
  3. DJL44
    Even a local broadcast contract would bring in tens of millions of dollars. MLB needs to offer multiple options - over the air, on basic cable and streaming. Get as many people watching as possible and take a cut of the advertising revenue. Increased TV viewership will also increase demand for in-person attendance as part of a virtuous cycle. I think Boston bundled game tickets with their year-long streaming subscription. That's another way to increase revenue creatively.
  4. DJL44
    I'm interested in seeing what Varland can do with that cutter in the rotation. The lesson to learn here is you can turn most 5th starters into good relievers (see also Griffin Jax). I'd like to see the Twins grab some marginal starters with MLB experience (the kind who get minor league contracts because they have a 5+ ERA) and convert them to relief in AAA. It seems a cheaper way to make relievers than it is to buy them retail.
  5. DJL44
    I think the Phillies who were swinging at curve balls in the dirt last night would agree with you. "Just make contact" is really, really difficult.
  6. DJL44
    Polanco for Ray? He wouldn't be available until June of 2024 but the Twins could manage in the meantime without him. That's one way to acquire a top of the rotation lefty. Deal one guy who costs retail price and likely to be out half the season injured for another.
  7. DJL44
    I'm on board with finding a RH hitting outfielder to take Gordon's spot in the outfield but his salary is not of any concern. They have needed a RH bat since before they signed Gallo last year.
  8. DJL44
    I'm surprised Sano has yet to formally retire. He's done playing baseball professionally.
  9. DJL44
    I'm fine with Odorizzi being next season's Keuchel but they absolutely need to get a top of the rotation starter to replace Gray.
  10. DJL44
    I don't think they will get more steals out of the players who haven't stolen bases in the past but adding Lewis and Martin will help.
  11. DJL44
    Not to mention the Twins previous TV contract was well below average in MLB Let’s Update the Estimated Local TV Revenue for MLB Teams | FanGraphs Baseball I don't think this is an issue as much as it is an opportunity. The downside is being overestimated and the upside is being minimized. The Twins WILL HAVE A TV CONTRACT next summer and it will make them between 75% and 150% of their previous contract.
  12. DJL44
    Do people realize $1M is almost as little as you can possibly pay a player? The league minimum is $740,000.
  13. DJL44
    The Twins can't afford the latter and even having Duran didn't help them advance past the 2nd round this year. One relief pitcher cannot carry a team in the postseason, they just don't pitch enough innings to have that kind of impact.
  14. DJL44
    I'm with you on reliever WAR, it significantly overrates relievers compared to starting pitchers. Pagan might not be closing out the game, but they're still going to use him (or someone like him) just like the Phillies have had to lean on Jeff Hoffman to get them through close playoff games. Meanwhile 2023 All-Star Craig Kimbrel has been awful. If paying a premium for 60 regular season innings doesn't make sense, it makes even less sense for 3 postseason innings. The best pitcher is often someone the batter hasn't seen before. The Twins strategy of turning their unused starters (Maeda, Varland, Paddack) into relief help was effective.
  15. DJL44
    BTW - Varland as a reliever had a 1.50 RA, 12.8 K/9 and 17.00 K/BB ratio in 12 innings. His fastball was in the upper 90s and his breaking stuff improved substantially. He was dominant.
  16. DJL44
    Buy low, sell high. The time to buy is now.
  17. DJL44
    Not the exact same results, but within a win or two. Duran is definitely better than Pagan or Varland but not enough better to make a big difference over 60 innings. Plus, like you said you need a LOT of relievers so the impact of one of those relief pitchers is diluted. It doesn't matter if you have a stud for the 9th inning if you never get to the 9th inning with a lead. Relief pitching has the highest cost per marginal WAR in free agency. The Twins are a mid-market team. They can't build a team paying retail prices for relievers.
  18. DJL44
    Pitcher WAA Stewart 1.2 Duran 1.0 Pagan 0.8 That's with Duran getting undeserved extra credit for leverage. Pagan actually did a better job preventing runs this season than Duran did. An "elite" reliever is worth maybe half a win more than a solid but not "elite" reliever over the course of a season. I don't think this is Duran's best season, that is yet to come. He's going to get paid in arbitration so I would recommend they give him the money now to get the discount but I'd still trade him when he gets expensive.
  19. DJL44
    I think you can turn most 4th starters into elite relievers. The Twins did just that with Varland this summer.
  20. DJL44
    This front office likes to acquire starters who are getting expensive in arbitration instead of being the high bidder in free agency. I expect that preference to continue.
  21. DJL44
    Too much downside and not enough upside. Best case scenario all you get is a really expensive reliever. Spend the money on the rotation and find someone new for the bullpen. I'd trade an expensive reliever for a first round draft pick whenever I had the opportunity.
  22. DJL44
    I'm not convinced I'd want to buy out more than one free agent season anyway. Lock him up until age 30, get the discount over those years by guaranteeing the money now (5 years $33M). When he's about to turn 31 and looking for a big free agent deal give him the qualifying offer and take the draft pick.
  23. DJL44
    Average MLB team revenue is at least $300M. The Twins are not far below average. If you assume $90M in operating expenses (which seems really high but I'll accept it). that's $40M in cash to the bottom line. Then you get the playoff windfall of $10M for four sold-out playoff games. Then you get windfalls like the sale of MLBAM, the tax shelter aspects of owning an MLB team and the increasing value of the team itself (up 12% yearly on a $2B valuation) which doesn't end up in your accounting but is a very real benefit to the Pohlads.
  24. DJL44
    Another article framed as if the Pohlads are shopping at the Goodwill and the most important thing to do this offseason is is cut salaries. How about an article about what they need to do to make this playoff team better so they can advance another round next year? This team should not be risking a shot at a title to save $10M. They're unlikely to find someone better than Vazquez this offseason and they need to improve CF and SP more than C so they might as well keep him.
  25. DJL44
    None of these players are making enough money to be concerned about. The decision to keep them will revolve around whether they have someone they like better for the roster spot.
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