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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Or he might be the average pitcher he's been since 2020. Planning on all your players to have a career year is a plan to fall short of expectations.
  2. DJL44
    Yes, I feel good for Maeda. He's been underpaid relative to performance his entire career and the injury made it risky that he would even get this contract. Glad he could come back and add 50% to his career earnings.
  3. DJL44
    I agree he should be in the Hall of Fame but voters have been very stingy voting catchers in on the first ballot. It's only happened twice - Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez. They didn't induct Gary Carter, Mike Piazza, Yogi Berra or Carlton Fisk in on the first ballot and they were all better than Joe. Joe didn't achieve any career milestones (3000 hits, 500 HR, etc) and he doesn't have a ring. I also heard he once drank milk from cows who had been treated with bovine growth hormone.
  4. DJL44
    I kind of like James Paxton at the Fangraphs predicted $8M if they're going to add a cheap 5-inning lefty. Paxton throws 95 and Ryu throws 88.
  5. DJL44
    < 10 % chance of that happening. Bet on his career numbers, not his career year numbers.
  6. DJL44
    I agree that it will take Camargo a while to adjust but looking at the state of players who get major league playing time behind the plate he's likely already past the bottom 10%. Jeffers was one of the top 10 C in baseball in 2023. His defense is pretty average behind the plate in nearly every facet, and he has a plus bat for a catcher. The only catcher who projects as a clearly better hitter than Jeffers is Adley Rutschman. He's actually one of the keys to this team being competitive while on a restricted budget.
  7. DJL44
    dWAR doesn't measure defense. RField measures defense.
  8. DJL44
    You haven't been paying attention to the market the past few offseasons then. Bad 5th starters get $10-12M.
  9. DJL44
    All the evidence says higher payroll directly correlates to on-field success viewcontent.cgi (valpo.edu) Pay to Play: An Analysis of Payroll and Performance in the MLB and NBA – The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective The strong connection between MLB payrolls and wins (axios.com) In 2019, Team Payroll and Wins Are Closely Linked | FanGraphs Baseball viewcontent.cgi (iwu.edu) Chapter 18 Assignment: Moneyball | Data Analytics Coding Fundamentals (bookdown.org) The Influence of Money in MLB, 1985-2014 - Bluebird Banter If the Twins lose all of their TV revenue this offseason they're completely incompetent at running the team and should sell it to someone else who knows how to make money.
  10. DJL44
    Plus, if anyone on the roster is willing to give the team a hometown discount on a contract it's Matt Wallner.
  11. DJL44
    If he's worth a QO then he can't be replaced by Trevor Larnach and Nick Gordon for 2024 like the premise of this article. You can't have it both ways. He's certainly not going to get a QO from the penny-pinching Twins because the risk he accepts a $21M contract and blows a hole in the budget is really high.
  12. DJL44
    This is where I am. Plus, I expect Max can play nearly every day and I don't think Polanco can be healthy for more than half a season anymore.
  13. DJL44
    Max isn't getting a QO.
  14. DJL44
    I think his value at next year's deadline will be just about equal to what it is now.
  15. DJL44
    Kepler would be a great trade chit for a rebuilding Twins team but they should plan on winning the Central in 2024. Nick Gordon is barely worth a roster spot, not a real reason to trade your starting RF.
  16. DJL44
    Then he's not the next Pablo Lopez or Sonny Gray.
  17. DJL44
    If nothing else, the Twins should throw in a decent bid to drive up the price for the Tigers
  18. DJL44
    If they can get a #2 starter for a corner outfield bat they should make that deal every day. It's pretty easy to find a halfway decent bat in free agency for a reasonable price. It's nearly impossible to find a #2 starter for less than $25M a season.
  19. DJL44
    To me that looks like it is clear they were trying to get him as many reps at 2B in the minor leagues as possible so he could develop there as a fielder. I have been critical of the Twins for pushing players past their ideal position on the defensive spectrum and sticking with it way too long (Austin Martin is not a SS). In this instance they were able to get an adequate 2B by playing Julien there rather than moving him to 1B exclusively. Now the question of how to resolve the conflict of having two starting 2B comes into focus. In order to put both Polanco and Julien in the lineup every day one of them has to move to a different position or to a different team.
  20. DJL44
    Would rather get Trent Grisham from the cost cutting Padres. I think they still have a chance at Kiermaier, I'm not sure how much demand there will be for him in free agency. There aren't a lot of teams looking for a CF.
  21. DJL44
    You probably don't want to look at Kirilloff's numbers for the past 3 years.
  22. DJL44
    It's not a terrible idea. The Twins could use Polanco until Kirilloff is healthy or Brooks Lee is ready in the minors. Polanco's trade value will be nearly the same at the deadline next year as it is this offseason (assuming he's healthy at the trade deadline). More importantly moving either Julien or Polanco to 1B gets a bat into the lineup that is better than Kirilloff. Still, it probably makes more sense to trade Polanco for a 1B than it does to move him there while he can still play 2B.
  23. DJL44
    I think they could also trade him for some other team's overpriced veteran.
  24. DJL44
    United Properties redeveloped the Ford Center right next to Target Field. That's a Pohlad company. They also developed the RBC Gateway in the North Loop neighborhood. If the Twins get a loan I would be shocked if they didn't get financing from Northmarq or a similar Pohlad company. They would actually be pretty stupid not to funnel money to other companies by taking out loans and paying interest to themselves.
  25. DJL44
    Stole this from elsewhere on the internet
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