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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    No, it means the team shouldn't have given him playing time. It's a failure of management to have a player rack up negative value.
  2. DJL44
    He is a "sell-high" guy. He's an established mid-level starting pitcher now but he's going to get more expensive through arbitration. He's never going to have more surplus value than he does right now.
  3. DJL44
    Got it. You believe all the general managers in baseball are wrong and they're paying too much for free agents. I guess that's an opinion but you're the one not rooted in reality. Fangraphs is just taking the $$ actually spent (reality) and dividing it by the performance (also reality). Nobody gets $66M a season but plenty of players get $33M a season with the expectation that the last years of the contract will be paying $33M for nothing. When you divvy up the pool of money it ends up at $9M/WAR. One thing I don't like about how they present the data is "value" is always in context to current market value, not market value in that particular year but that's a nitpick especially when $$/WAR was pretty much the same in 2022 as 2023.
  4. DJL44
    Tom Kelly has been considered and rejected in previous years. I want to know what Ron Gardenhire thinks about having Cowboy Joe West on the ballot.
  5. DJL44
    And WPA credits that out to the pitcher.
  6. DJL44
    Carlos Correa - Stats - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball You go down to Value and you look at the line for 2022, not the line for 2023. 2022 is last year, 2023 is THIS year. 2024 is NEXT year. He had a bad season at the plate THIS year but he was worth every penny last year. The value is based on the average cost of 1 WAR in free agency. Nobody has been paid $66M in a single season but plenty of superstars have had years of dead money at the end of the contract (see Miguel Cabrera). Like many superstars in their prime Acuna isn't able to cash in at his full value because he hasn't reached free agency.
  7. DJL44
    Fangraphs has him worth $34.8M last year and he got paid $35.1M. That's not "drastically overpaid".
  8. DJL44
    He has great fundamentals and a strong arm but it would be crazy to think a season where he was dealing with plantar fasciitis all year would be one of his best defensively. That means there is some upside for next year. I also think finding a 2B who turns the pivot well would improve Correa's numbers. Neither Polanco or Julien is as good as he had when Altuve was his partner.
  9. DJL44
    This would be a waste of Farmer's value, which is mainly on defense. Trading him for a 1B bat (like Josh Bell of the Marlins) would be a better move.
  10. DJL44
    The other reason not to trade away a good catcher is you can leverage that position in the playoffs. I'm convinced one reason the Phillies perform better in the playoffs than in the regular season is the ability to play Realmuto every day.
  11. DJL44
    If I look at the Twins roster for players who are likely at peak value right now here's my list: Edouard Julien Matt Wallner Royce Lewis Joe Ryan Bailey Ober Jhoan Duran Brock Stewart Griffin Jax I don't want to trade any of those players. If someone wants to offer too much for Brock Stewart or Griffin Jax I'd listen.
  12. DJL44
    There are a couple SS retiring. The Marlins have already mentioned they want to upgrade at SS.
  13. DJL44
    Based on? Shoulder injuries have ended several careers. Shoulder surgery isn't like Tommy John, it's a lot riskier.
  14. DJL44
    Channel 45 is spending $8.8M over 10 years on high school sports tournaments for football, hockey and basketball. That's about 100 games worth of programming for $880,000 a year. The Twins provide 162 games and would be much higher rated than high school sports. I see a floor for a broadcast contract at $20M a year.
  15. DJL44
    I would like to see Balazovic replaced on the 40 man roster with a better pitcher. He is at the age (26 in 2024) where he needs to be able to contribute or find a new home.
  16. DJL44
    On the other hand, live sports are clearly the most valuable property on linear television and command a premium for advertising dollars. They need to grow the audience by making the games more easily available and make up the money on advertising.
  17. DJL44
    I would have a different order De León (injured and unavailable for 2024, plus he's 30) Luplow Ortega Stevenson Balazovic Henriquez Moran Gordon Alcala
  18. DJL44
    I expect most basic cable that carries channel 5 would also carry 45. If not, that's an easy add. For outside of Minnesota the solution needs to be streaming on MLB.tv. That would be a huge improvement on the current situation where the Twins are blacked out but unavailable.
  19. DJL44
    I agree with all of that, but Severino still performed significantly better than Miranda. Miranda hit .255/.326/.360 in AAA.
  20. DJL44
    I would love to see 45 get the contract for broadcasting the Twins locally. The Twins seem ready to take a little less money in the short term if it grows the TV audience in the long run.
  21. DJL44
    From what I can tell the Twins were profitable for Diamond Sports until you figure in the huge debt service they owed. Sinclair stripped Diamond of its assets and created a corporation designed to go bankrupt.
  22. DJL44
    So, the pitching is terrible but the Twins prospects can't hit? Not a good sign.
  23. DJL44
    Based on 2023 I think you have to put Miranda behind Severino on the depth chart.
  24. DJL44
    2017 was a long time ago. 2024 Byron Buxton can barely run.
  25. DJL44
    That would make my brain hurt less.
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