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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    I picked the first seven players I could find who are currently playing in AAA and have played in MLB. Then I took a back of the envelope projection based on their MLB stats. If you have better major league equivalencies on a broader set of data feel free to post here and I'll look over your data. The amount of the performance drop varies by year due to run scoring environment but it ALWAYS drops. This isn't hard to understand. MLB is a LOT harder than AAA. The players are in AAA because they aren't good enough to play in MLB regularly. If players hit exactly as well in MLB as they do in AAA that would mean AAA is exactly as difficult as MLB.
  2. DJL44
    LF doesn't get that many defensive chances a game. Matt Wallner has 64 putouts and 1 assist in 333 innings in LF for his career. That's 2 defensive chances per game. You can't give away 4 at-bats to gain defensively for two opportunities a game.
  3. DJL44
    Saturday's game is the free game on MLB.tv (blackouts apply).
  4. DJL44
    Let's take a look at some the stats of some current AAA players who have long track records in MLB Akil Baddoo 860 OPS in AAA, 680 OPS in MLB (all 2024) Travis Blankenhorn 850 OPS in AAA, 560 OPS in MLB (2023) Trayce Thompson 865 OPS in AAA, 580 OPS in MLB (2023) Ben Gamel 960 OPS in AAA, 716 career OPS in MLB David Dahl 980 OPS in AAA, 560 OPS in MLB (2021-23) Jake Lamb 930 OPS in AAA, 750 OPS in MLB (career) Jose Rojas 920 OPS in AAA, 580 OPS in MLB (career) A 200+ point drop in OPS is common moving from AAA to MLB. Keirsey would actually be pretty lucky to have a 700 OPS in his first taste of MLB. With adjustments over time he could probably provide a 700 OPS at the peak of his brief MLB career.
  5. DJL44
    The White Sox have Tommy Pham. He's a better RH platoon bat than Margot. Detroit has Mark Canha and he's also a better option. Are you saying the Twins can't have nice things like the White Sox and Tigers have?
  6. DJL44
    I really doubt Brooks Lee will be promoted that quickly unless there is an injury to a starter. They're definitely not going to make him a platoon RH bat like Kyle Farmer, especially when he's better as a LH batter.
  7. DJL44
    So is filling your roster with below average veterans.
  8. DJL44
    Margot's last three seasons have been .696, .700 and .686. That's a .700 OPS hitter. His glove has slipped this season which is probably the larger concern. If Margot isn't good enough defensively for CF he's not really worth a roster spot. That doesn't mean Keirsey is the answer. The answer would be obtaining a real RH platoon bat for the corner OF, not someone with a predicted 700 OPS against lefties.
  9. DJL44
    Swapping minor league players every 2 weeks reeks of desperation. If you're only going to give a player a 2 week trial then you don't have any faith in the player.
  10. DJL44
    He isn't an upgrade on what they have in LF or RF. Kepler owns RF and Kirilloff or Larnach or Castro will play LF. He's not a RH platoon bat. He's not a DH. He's a backup CF and he's not going to play if Buxton is healthy. If Buxton is hurt they could use his glove in CF. I can. I would expect a AAA player to lose 200 points of OPS moving up to MLB. Margot has been a 700 OPS hitter for a few years now. That's basically even.
  11. DJL44
    I noted already that Double-A starts repeating itself in mid-June. He'll run out of new pitchers to face then and he's already beat up on the ones he has seen. He needs to be promoted by June 15 at the latest. Ohl to AAA could make some sense. There's plenty of room in the Saints rotation and promoting Ohl would allow them to promote Culpepper.
  12. DJL44
    Keirsey should be on the roster when Buxton is on the IL and in AAA when Buxton is playing.
  13. DJL44
    Seven walks in one day for Austin Martin. That will keep his OBP high for a while.
  14. DJL44
    This team is pretty mediocre and is living in the dreaded space where they're too talented to give up on the season but not talented enough to advance in the playoffs.
  15. DJL44
    You're pretty far out there on that limb all by yourself. Be careful it doesn't snap off. Player HR/G Levi Michael 1/18.5 Brooks Lee 1/8
  16. DJL44
    Royce Lewis is the best infielder of the bunch. You don't put him at 1B if those are your choices. I would play Lewis at 3B, Lee at 2B and let Julien platoon with Miranda at 1B. That's your best defensive alignment.
  17. DJL44
    He's replaced Donnie Barrels which is about what I hoped he could do. Similar players.
  18. DJL44
    I wouldn't trade Woods Richardson for Festa or any of the players ranked below Festa. SWR looks like a legit MLB starting pitcher which is the scarcest commodity in baseball. In two weeks he comes off the list so it doesn't really matter.
  19. DJL44
    WPA gives credit for the game saving diving play to the pitcher.
  20. DJL44
    The Japan leagues probably have more MLB ready talent than there currently is in AAA but their worst players would fit right in on a Double-A team. On average they're AAA but the range of talent is larger. I would say there is at least an entire team worth of MLB-ready talent playing professionally in Japan. The best baseball player in the world is from Japan. I expect them to continue to produce MLB level talent. Young people in Japan are much more interested in baseball than young people in the USA. Kids in the US are becoming more interested in basketball and soccer.
  21. DJL44
    Off day tomorrow lets them lean on the bullpen
  22. DJL44
    Sounds like they are ineligible for compensation. If Imanaga wins ROY instead of a rookie on the PPI list it would block a different team from getting compensation. I did notice that the Twins will get a pick if Joe Ryan ends up in the top 3 of AL CYA voting.
  23. DJL44
    It would be a lot of fun if Mercedes and Jenkins moved up the ladder together. Jenkins is actually younger than Mercedes. Hope to see them both playing in the Mussels outfield soon.
  24. DJL44
    Usually "that" guy is a future MiLB manager.
  25. DJL44
    I think you have two options 1) Jeffers at catcher for 80 games and DH for 60. Vazquez C for 80 games. Larnach DH for 100 games. 2) Jeffers at catcher for 120 games (and his offense will likely suffer), Vazquez C for 40 games. Larnach DH for 120 games, Margot at DH for 40 games. I don't think it is clear at all that option 2 is better than option 1. That's 60 games of Jeffers at DH you're trading off for 40 games of Margot and 20 games of Larnach at DH. That's trading a .400 OPS at C for a .500 OPS at DH. Plus, you're messing with the formula that has made Jeffers the most productive member of the entire team. When Lewis is back and they can have Miranda be the RH DH then I could see using Jeffers more exclusively at C.
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