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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    $5M? He's almost certain to be worse next year than he was this year and he was bad this year. $5M is what you pay a catcher who has positive value.
  2. DJL44
    They really don’t. MN has about $325M in revenue and St Louis is $375M. They’re both midmarket teams like Arizona and Detroit.
  3. DJL44
    I would not sign Vazquez for more than $1M and only after the other options are exhausted.
  4. DJL44
    Seattle, St Louis, San Diego
  5. DJL44
    That’s the 1-year contract tier. Above that is a multiyear deal. I would rather see them offer contract extensions to their own players. It’s a better value.
  6. DJL44
    Why would that make the franchise more attractive? Do you strip your house down to the studs to sell it?
  7. DJL44
    A steady job and a promised trade to a contender if the team is out of the running will attract veteran players. Do you think Bader is upset with how last year went?
  8. DJL44
    Familiarity seems to be the common thread of this offseason
  9. DJL44
    Shelton did manage the Pirates to four of the most profitable seasons in MLB history.
  10. DJL44
    Larnach for Joey Bart?
  11. DJL44
    Looks like Kody Clemens will fall short of Super-Two status and not qualify for arbitration.
  12. DJL44
    Do we know that Shelton was the front office's first choice? Did other candidates turn them down after the interview? I've certainly backed out from joining organizations after I've had a chance to meet the people in charge face to face.
  13. DJL44
    Rutschman is a better defender than Vazquez or Jeffers. He's a better defender than pretty much all of the available free agents.
  14. DJL44
    or How do you fix Royce Lewis?
  15. DJL44
    They are betting a big portion of their future on developing young pitching. Punting the catcher position is a really bad idea in that context. Play good defense behind young pitchers.
  16. DJL44
    I want to know if Pete Maki is staying. He has actually been able to transition the young talent to the major leagues and I'd like him to stay.
  17. DJL44
    That's not a flaw, that's how trade values work. Older, more expensive and less team control is worth less than younger, cheaper and more team control.
  18. DJL44
    The biggest problem with this hire is Falvey doubling down on the same process that led to these results in the first place. "Trust the process" that has led to one of the worst teams in baseball.
  19. DJL44
    This represents the smallest change possible.
  20. DJL44
    I think it's a bad idea to waste MLB at-bats on a player with limited upside. Suppose playing on a bad team has less pressure than playing for the Dodgers and Outman can put up an OPS more in line with his AAA stats. He becomes a 700 OPS guy with a decent glove for a couple seasons when the Twins aren't trying to contend. Then he starts his inevitable post-age-30 decline as his arbitration salaries increase and he gets non-tendered in 2027. What's the point? Why not invest the playing time in Emmanuel Rodriguez instead?
  21. DJL44
    If they change out the bottom and add a competent bullpen to make a 70-win team, they will sell again at the deadline and fall short of 70 wins.
  22. DJL44
    International signings represent about 1/3 of all players now. Based on the success rate of recent Japanese players, I'd say there are roughly 60 MLB players on rosters in Japan. I occasionally wonder what would happen if a team decided to bring over an all-Japanese 40-man roster, including the managers and staff but excluding the players already here. Could that team make the playoffs?
  23. DJL44
    Now, with the base rate as context, we can judge the Twins 2019 draft Reached the majors 8 - Wallner, Steer, Gipson-Long, Legumina, Headrick, Laweryson, Varland, Julien Played 3+ seasons 4 - Wallner, Steer, Varland, Julien That's a decent draft. Two players with 3+ WAR and one more with a chance to exceed that.
  24. DJL44
    A parody of beauty pageants and the manager selection process at the same time.
  25. DJL44
    There are a lot of players who have played in the major leagues who don't contribute much. Here's a good study covering 15 drafts. The Chances of a Drafted Baseball Player Making the Major Leagues: A Quantitative Study – Society for American Baseball Research Round / % who play in majors / % who play 3+ seasons 1 / 67% / 47% 2 / 49% / 31% 3 / 40% / 22% 4 / 35% / 18% 5 / 33% / 18% 6 / 24% / 11% 7 / 20% / 9% 8 / 24% / 10% 9 / 18% / 8% 10 / 18% / 8% 11-15 / 13% / 5% Adding up all the percentages you get All / 3.92 / 2.07 On average a team will see 4 draftees reach the majors and 2 play 3+ seasons. That's the base rate. If you can get 2 draft picks per draft to play 3+ seasons, you're an average team.
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