Major League Ready

This is where we differ and that's OK. We know that on average the additional $10M believe is absolutely critical will on average return 1.2 WAR. I just don’t see this aspect of roster development and the 1.2 WAR it would project to bring as being critical. The decisions / startegies that make or break mid market teams are drafting and trading for prospects as opposed to trading prospects. I am still pissed about them taking Cavaco when Stott and Carroll were on the board and were widely considered the best available. Those are the decisions that truly impact a franchise, especially one outside the top 10 in revenue. We would have a better / younger / healthier shortstop than Correa had we picked Stott and also have another $30M to spend. Of course, we all know what Carroll has become and we would not have to spend money on a back-up CF. Trading for prospects as opposed to trading them away is far more important for a mid market team. Take our current situation with Polanco as an example. While the return is uncertain, trading Polanco has the potential to have a huge impact on the next several years and the sustainability of the team. If we trade Polanco, and use the dollars for a top SP, that move alone has more potential than keeping Polanco given Julien, Lewis, and Correa are the primary players at the positions he can play and he plays two of those positions very poorly. Sure, the SP we trade for could produce nothing like Mahle and Polanco could return to 2019 form or the reverse is possible. However, the far greater potential impact is the difference in trading away a couple top prospects for pitching as opposed to getting a couple prospects back for Polanco. The net difference is several prospects including one of two elite prospects. The difference in this strategy not only costs us the kind of top prospects needed to acquire a front of the rotation SP, it also cost us a couple prospects that would come back from trading Polanco. This enormous swing in prospect capital is something that Tampa, Oakland, and Cleveland have understood and utilized to be better than all the other teams outside the top 10 in revenue. Tampa, Oakland, and Cleveland have also been very good at getting MLB ready players or players that have already debuted but not yet produced. Therefore, the impact is not 4 years off like it would be if we were talking about trading for A Ball players. Trading Polanco could hurt for a year. However, he produced just over 1 WAR last year and spending the money elsewhere could have a greater short or even long-term gain if it allows us to bring in a good free agent. It’s also remotely possible none of the players we would have traded away for pitching or the players we got back from trading Polanco will turn out. However, teams trading front line SPs are not looking for a slightly above average guy with two years remaining. They want elite prospects not the packages for Polanco / Larnach etc that have been floated here. They want the kind of prospects that profile to become great players. Polanco would not return that type of prospect but he would return decent prospects that change the ceiling when trading Polanco vs trading for pitching or any other position. These decisions and strategy are far more important to sustained winning than spending an extra $10M this season. Bottom line is trading Polanco has a far higher ceiling than keeping him. We can afford the SP that is arguably our most important need and we will make room for Lee / Severino / Miranda. Developing those players into ML assets is also important and you can’t do that and keep all the Vets.

You are absolutely right. It does not all have to come from player payroll and it's a pretty good bet they will cut in other areas. Let's see what happens before we assume the worst.

Who is saying they should not bring in free agents. This whole discussion is exceptionally exaggerated. You are not your normal rational self when it comes to spending. Defending a position that the twins won't spend on elite talent with Cleveland and Tampa as examples makes zero sense. Tampa and Cleveland literally never go after that type of free agent EVER.

People keep saying this but I have not heard anyone from the Twins FO use this metric in 10 years and I heard it a total of one time. Regardless, it makes absolutely no sense for anything other than a rough guideline which is evident in this case. If revenue goes down by 50% their spending capacity does not go down by 50% of the decrease. I have had many clients over the years that used very ill-conceived metrics. Even if the Twins still use this measure which I highly doubt, it still makes no sense for us to use a measure we know is very flawed.

The percentage of revenue is a very rough guideline. I have always wondered does that mean salary plus benefits and taxation like every other business or is that a measure against salary only. If revenue decreases by $25M, how much do they need to reduce spending to net the same result. Obviously, the answer is $25M. How that equates to percentage of revenue is nothing more than an approximation.

$10M buys one win in free agency. Is this really the most pivotal aspect of developing a strategy/plan to get to the next level?

I am not at all suggesting what you are saying. I have said on several occasions that Polanco is the only player among Polanco/Farmer/Kepler that should/will be traded. If he is the only one of the three traded, they have enough payroll room to resign or replace Gray and I have been very consistent with that being a top priority and it's in the plan I posted. Given I said they only need to trade one guy I have no idea where you are coming up with trading the 2 hole hitter and the 3/4 hole hitter. Plus, Polanco is no longer a primary player. Julien and Lewis have taken those roles. He will still get a lot of playing time and Lee/Severino will have a hard time filling his shoes but trading players like Polanco (assuming value comes back) has proven to be a very effective practice for other teams.

Agree with the doom and gloom being pathetic. However, I think you are going to lose people with it being a "transition" year because people are going to take that as stepping back when it sounds to me like you are talking about the young (cheap) guys taking roster spots which of course happened over the course of 23 and Lee/Severino are also on the door step. It's also simply time to move on from Polanco. I see the all of this as taking a step forward with the exception of the loss of Gray. They are going to have to find a way to replace him and that probably was never going to be by signing Blake Snell or similar FAs.

In the next two years, assuming Polanco is traded and the others are retained, they still have $30M coming off between Kepler, Vasquez, Farmer, and Thielbar. That will cover the arbitration increases. I think it's also reasonable to believe that the TV revenue will get back to the previous level or perhaps even higher in 2-3 years as the new distribution model takes shape. I also would not be surprised if someone like Amazon or Apple steps in relatively soon.

Do you have information we are not aware of? Has something with substantive information been published that illustrates how that revenue will be replaced or are you just making an assumption with nothing to support it?

A 1 year $20M deal would look a lot better with a 2nd year team option.

They won't need the money if they acquire pitching the way Tampa has acquired pitching. Glasnow had not yet produced a 1 WAR season when Tampa acquired him and Eflin cost 40M over 3 years.

The payroll is $104M without Polanco and $98M without Polanco and Farmer. It will not be necessary to trade both players and Kepler is not going anywhere unless they get an offer they can't refuse. If Polanco is the only one traded, they will still have $36M to spend if they get to the high end of the estimate $140M. They were not going after Bellinger even with $150M budget and there is very little in the form of big RH bats available in free agency that fit this roster. They don't have to trade any of Kepler / Polanco and Farmer. However, they could make payroll room for a significant SP signing by moving one of them. Polanco is the most likely of the three because the platoon of Julien / Farmer is better than having Polanco at 2B and Lewis is a much better option at 3B.

Are we really going to hear the "if they don't spend big we will lose 90+ games" BS again this off-season. Our top 6 position players by WAR made a total of $12M. Correa and Buxton produced under 2 WAR for $48M.

There is plenty of time for the Correa signing to produce. However, at this point IDK that Correa saves anything. 33M for 1.1 WAR is an F.

Whaaaaat? This is a very deep class. What about Montgomery / Nola / Rodriquez and the two Japanese players plus Stroman also opted out and is now a FA.

Gray was 28 when he was struggling in NY and he bounced back. Giolitto remains to be seen. Not my first choice but I would not be surprised to see Giolitto bounce back in a big way.

Thanks. That leaves room to upgrade from Bader to Kiermaier and add a RP. However, I am not convinced they will spend $150M. wish we had a better idea how much the TV revenue they will be able to replace, especially long-term, You have to believe they would be more apt to take it in the shorts this year if these changes provide an opportunity to grow revenue long-term.

Bellinger is great but here is the thing ... There are 7 really good SPs plus Ohtani and 1 (Bellinger) truly impactful hitter in this FA class. I think Bellinger lands a crazy deal. It could be one of those deals that hurts the team for several years and landing Bellinger seems even more improbable than the twins doing what it takes to land a top SP.

If they can get a top SP, I believe they will move Polanco for the payroll space. I doubt they get an established SP. If they can get a good RP that fits in easy enough as would a RH OFer. However, I would be they would take a good prospect package if they need the payroll space which will be just fine by me because it means they landed a top pitcher.

I meant to substitute someone else for Larnach. The reason I went with Bader is his career OPS against LHP is 823. I was pondering what to do with that final bench spot and simply forgot to make the change. What if Buxton can actually play the OF? If that happened, you could go a few different ways with that last bench spot. My dream scenario is Lee or Severino mash at AAA and get brought up before June 1. That roster looks really deep if that happens and we still should have hope Miranda finds it. I would like to see them stretch the budget a little more and get a solid LH RP and as Mike pointed out it probably makes more sense to keep Varland stretched out in AAA.

1st choice Montgomery / 2nd Choice Rodriguez / 3rd Choice Sunny Gray, I would go with Kiermaier a little over budget or even shed Farmer for Kiermaier. Polanco is traded for the payroll space. C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Utility / Harrison Bader or MAT ($7M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Jordan Montgomery ($24M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 2.08% under budget

C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Utility / Harrison Bader or MAT ($7M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Jordan Montgomery ($24M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 2.08% under budget

C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Utility / Harrison Bader ($7000000M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Jordan Montgomery ($24M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 100.00% over budget

Josh Bell was a pretty significant add but he was below league average. Now that he was traded, they only project at $90M for payroll so it's all together possible they spend some money on a bat or two. If the Twins can spend $150, Cleveland should be able to spend in the neighborhood of $120M. One big bat would be pretty impactful for them.