Major League Ready

I understand their track record with position players is pretty bad but what's the alternative. They need to replace 5 of the 8 position players. The only players that wouldn't need to be replaced are Buxton, Jeffers, and Keaschall and you need 4-5 RPs. You can't come remotely close to putting a dent in those needs through free agency. The alternative is to trade away pretty much every good prospect they have and bet on making a run in 2026 and hoping there is a meaningful 2027. Post 2027 you would be assuring a very long rebuild where they would be horrible. They have the 2B of the future in Keaschall. With the preface that no prospect is a lock, There is a pretty good chance Culpepper and Jenkins are here by July 1, 2026. Wallner is decent so he stays until one of Rodriguez/GG/Rosario or Fedko push him to the bench or out all together. We should not give up on Lewis just yet. At least Lewis has become a good defender. Add to this list whatever they get for Ryan/Ober/Lopez and what should be a top 5 pick next year. By 2027 they should field a respectable team and the potential to sustain a run of several years in the playoffs by 2028. Granted, that's an optimistic view but it does not change the odds that staying the course on this rebuild provides the best probability of success.

We just see the situation differently. I don't subscribe to the theory that we should hold onto players during a rebuild because we already have a highly ranked farm system. Improving the system improves the likelihood of success in the post rebuild years and Ryan is the type of player that brings back premium prospects. That's always key to building a new core. I don't agree we give up nothing to keep him until the trade deadline. The return is generally better in the off-season and we avoid the risk of injury or underperformance which is substantial. The most attractive players to trade during a rebuild are the star players. Garrett Crochet for example. The Royals most likely don't win the WS had they held on to Greinke. Holding on to that type of player has the highest future cost which is a bad idea when there is little present benefit in terms of playoff aspirations, and you have decided to play for the future.

Wallner starts the season in the OF and is forced into a primary DH role by an OF prospect that plays better defense. Of course, it's possible he gets traded at some point in 2026. The 2.2 assumes allows for the possibility he steps up and remains with the team or remains with the team in a diminished role. It won't make much difference ($1.4m) either way so in terms of payroll it's not much of an issue.

Why must we trade Pablo's salary? With him they are still under $100M. Ryan will be the first to be traded because he would bring back two top 100 prospects and one of them would be a 1-3 ranked prospect for most teams. Those are key components in getting to the next level. Then, trade whichever player brings back the best package between Pablo and Ober. Keep one of them around for veteran presence. Pablo impresses me as the better veteran presence. Waiting until the deadline to trade Ryan is a huge mistake unless for some reason a great return is not presented this winter. The return should be better this winter and they avoid injury risk. My guess is that Ryan is by far the most likely of the three to be traded. Keeping him would be a failure to commit to a rebuild which is the would be truly unfortunate. This would leave us with Ober/Matthews/Festa/SWR/Bradley/Able/Morris who are ready and a couple of Rojas / Raya / Prelipp / Culpepper and should be ready at some point in 2026. Of course, it's possible perhaps even likely they get a SP for Ryan or Ober that will be ready for 2026 or at some point in 2026.

Here is a projected payroll for next year. Of course, we have to make some assumptions. I come up with around $77M if they trade Pable and Ryan which I suspect they will. Larnach is traded as well. This also includes adding two RPs at a salary of $5M each. Correa's $10M is included. There are a couple other assumptions here that don't mean much in terms of payroll. Culpepper eventually takes over for Lee at SS moving Lee to a utility IF role. The year starts with Fitzgerald in that utility role but it could be Eeles or they could sign a Wili Castro equivalent for a bench role. Of course, the return for Ryan/Lopez has a good chance of containing pieces that fit in at some point in 2026. 1 Bailey Ober 7,000,000 2 Zebby Matthews 820,000 3 Taj Bradley 820,000 4 David Festa 820,000 5 SWR 820,000 Relief Pitchers 6 Cole Sands 820,000 7 LH Free Agent 5,000,000 8 RH Free Agent 5,000,000 9 Michael Tonkin 1,750,000 10 Justin Topa 1,750,000 11 Travis Adams 820,000 12 Andrew Morris 820,000 13 Funderburk 820,000 Catchers 14 Ryan Jeffers 6,500,000 15 Cardenas / Trade / FA 6,000,000 Infielders 1B Fedko / Julien / Sabato 820,000 2B Luke Keaschall 820,000 3B Royce Lewis 3,000,000 SS Brooks Lee >>> Kaelen Culpepper 820,000 Utility Players 20 Kody Clemens 820,000 21 Fitzgerald >>> Brooks Lee 820,000 22 Kyler Fedko 820,000 23 Wallner >>> Gonzalez / Rosario 2,200,000 Outfielders 24 Wallner >>> Jenkins 820,000 25 Byron Buxton CF 15,142,857 26 Roden >>> Gonzalez or Erod 820,000 Carlos Correa 10,000,000 TOTAL PAYROLL 76,462,857

I guess I have a different idea of what should happen during a rebuild phase or perhaps some fans don't want to accept they are in a rebuild phase. Detroit and KC did not add meaningful free agents during their rebuild and that is the norm with any rebuilding team. The entire premise of a rebuild is to replace mediocre aging / expensive players with younger higher upside players. Once that core is set, fill in missing pieces from free agency. What would be the point in adding any veterans with the exception of the BP next year? All that would do is block prospects that could be part of the solution. It seems like a fair number of people are in denial that they are rebuilding. If Pablo is healthy (tradeable) there is a very good chance he is traded, and the payroll will be $75-80M even if they add a couple RPs. The plan should not be devised to win 75 games instead of 70. It should be to build a new core and eventual contender.

Totally agree on the catchers. and I am right there with you on Julien. However, it does not work very well to replace Julien with Eeles. Where would they play him? We want Lee and Keaschall at SS and 2B. As much as we question the Outman trade, at this point it makes more sense to have Outman in the OF over Eeles. Urena is a placeholder filling a couple starts until Pablo / SWR or Festa are back. I would not want them disrupting Able's development to fill in for a couple starts and Bradley looks like he really needs to work on some things right now as well. If the goal is to win as many games as possible for the rest of the season, starting Urena is a really bad idea. If the goal is to develop replacements over the remainder of this year and 2026, giving Urena a handful of starts is a non-issue.

We agree in theory but it's not like they have a lot of options. The only position player that might be ready IMO is Fedko and he has played all of 17 games at AAA . My guess is he is the guy they bring up when the rosters expand.. Sabato has been mediocre. GG has been pretty disappointing so far at AAA and I am not at all for rushing Jenkins or Culpepper. I would also be for keeping Vasquez on the DL and bringing up Pereda for Gasper. Fitzgerald and Eeles are kind of redundant and apparently Fitzpatrick can play some 1B. He has actually looked OK. Who would you like to see?

It works for the NBA and NHL. What do you think would preclude MLB from following their format?

A reasonable case can be made for all of them and that's a very good thing. It's Keaschall for me because is already proving it at the highest level. If we put a lot of weight on upside it's probably Tait. If I picked based on who we really need to pan out it's Culpepper.

The OF is going to be interesting given all the candidates. I think Larnach gets traded in the off-season and the starting OF to begin 2026 is Buxton/Wallner/Roden. Whoever has the best start of the season at AAA between Jenkins/Erod/Gonzalez will push Wallner to a timeshare where Wallner DHs. If it's Jenkins or Erod, Wallner DHs a lot. Perhaps a 50/50 split if it's GG. I am pulling for Fedko to be in that conversation as well. Of course, Roden won't have unlimited rope. He could be replaced in the same manner as Wallner if he does not produce. The difference being Wallner would still play almost every day and Roden would go to the bench or be sent down. The best case scenario is that Jenkins and Erod start 2026 strong at AAA and end up on the ML team before the midpoint of the 2026 season. Those two would give us much stronger outfield defense than we have had in a longtime and both can back-up CF. This team would look quite different in the OF and on the base pads with these guys playing every day.

You have a point but the team is in a very different place. It's a little harder to make these moves when you are fighting for playoff position. The emphasis now should be creating opportunities and find answers to the mediocrity we have been experiencing. The MO needs to adapt to the new reality.

I have been saying I don't see it with Brooks Lee since he was in AA. My belief is that Culpepper has far more upside and therefore could displace Lee before the half-way point next year if he does well out of the gate. Now, I am basing this on the belief that they will treat 2026 as a transition year. We will see the same thing with the corner OF spots. Jenkins / Rodriguez and Gonzalez will likely start 2026 at AAA but they won't be held back long if they perform.

I think the highlighted portion is pretty common in sports. Fans and fanaticism go together. Correa is a perfect example. There was quite a bit of discussion here questioning if the best baseball move would be to trade Correa. Yet, when it happens, for many, it was 100% about money. It's pretty simple. Correa is no longer a good SS and Lewis probably has more upside at 3B or it's at least a wash. We also didn't have Pena waiting in the wings when we signed him but we do now in the form of Culpepper.

My guess is Fedko and Morris pitching out of the BP if he is healthy. Of course, they need a spots for Pablo and Festa so there might not be room for Morris.

Taylor only had one year in the majors where his wRC+ was above average and that was only 104. He also didn't hit in Milb with the exception of a good year at AA. Outman hit well at every level and had a wRC+ of 116 as a rookie. He was injured and never got back on track. I didn't like the trade but acknowledge there is a reasonable chance he gets back on track. It's a great trade if he can back to being an above average hitter given his defense. I wouldn't bet for or against that happening.

Great post Mike. I refuse to let any of this crap negate my enjoyment of the game. I am looking forward to seeing a new group of players because the old ones were not cutting it. Keaschall is the first of several. Rodriguez, Jenkins, Culpepper, and Gonzalez will be the next wave and I find myself rooting for Fedko so I hope to see him. Of course, there are a bunch of pitching prospects. Some will fail but at least the days of slow position players that strike out a lot and can't defend are coming to an end.

I remember seeing similar assessments here about Brent Rooker at the end of 2021 and the 2022 off-season.

Fair enough but would you disagree that of the 8 positions 1st base is the easiest to fill. Does anyone go from 1B to 3B or the OF because they can't "stay" at 1B or do they go to 1B when they can't play 3B. If the latter is true, there will be a greater supply of 3B than 1B and I think we can all agree that the up the middle positions are more difficult to play.

I should have started that your value explanation was right on. As a fan, I hope they are more focused on constructing a real contender as opposed to 'cash value". You have been a proponent of building a team with a legit shot at a WS as opposed to the teams we have had recently that have a decent chance of getting in the playoffs but not much of a chance to go deep. I am with you in that desire.

There is another possibility in terms of how these new investors see Ryan. They could be looking at his value in terms of making a playoff run. If that's the case, they would evaluate their odds of making a playoff run in 2026 or 2027 if we have a 2027 season. Then, they would determine if they have a better chance making a playoff run or two by trading Ryan for assets that would contribute after 2027 for the next 5-7 years. Obviously, you never know with prospects even ones as good as Keaschall / Jenkins / Gonzalez / Rodriguez / Culpepper / Abel / Rojas and you could say Matthews and Festa still are not proven. Of course, we need to add whatever they received in trading Ryan / Lopez and perhaps Ober. On the flip side, what are the chances with mostly the same group of players that are failed this year minus 4 very good RPs. IMO, 2026 is an extreme longshot. So, should those investors bet on 2027 (which might not happen) or the 5-7 years following 2027?

Name a position that's easier to fill?

Rebuilds do generally takes several years. However, most of the time, rebuilds happen after a window of contention where the team has not had high draft picks and they have traded away prospects for missing pieces like the nationals for example who are in year 6. Those teams generally do not have many good prospects that are near major league ready. That is far from the case here. The Twins already have three young SPs in SWR / Matthews / Festa and Abel that are just starting to establish themselves in the majors. They have several others in the system. Some will certainly fail but some others will be ready in the next year or so. Where position players are concerned. Buck has 3 more years and Keaschall looks like a game changer. Wallner needs to go to a part-time defensive player but the bat is somewhere between above average and great. Both corner OF spots need to be replaced but they have both quantity and quality for these positions. We don't have many options that are near at SS but the one we have looks great. That leaves 1st base as the big hole and that's not a hard position to fill. This just does not look like a 5+ year rebuild. They have a lot to work through in 2026 but they should have a very talented young team in 2027.

Does KC win the WS if they had not traded Greinke for Cane & Escobar? The other part of this equation is the player going out generally would have provided 1-1.5 years of production vs 6-7 years of production for the players coming back. This formula is how Cleveland, Tampa, and the current Brewers team have outperformed other teams outside the top dozen in revenue. If you look at the players on Milwaukee's roster on pace to produce greater than 1.5 WAR, 47% of the production has been produced by players acquired as prospects or unproven major leaguers.

I would expect that Forbes is including draft bonuses / International bonuses / Benefits, and MLB Payroll in "player Expenses".