Major League Ready

That's fine but we can't complain about not building playoff teams if we are unwilling to do what the most successful teams with similar revenue have done. We can choose to be the best team we can in 2026 or we can do what's necessary to build a winner but those two things are mutually exclusive.

The four most successful teams with modest revenue over the past 25 years are Oakland, Cleveland, Tampa, and Milwaukee. They have outperformed a significant number of team with considerably more revenue. Oakland has actually had the most success in the last couple of decades, but they have not been good lately. Milwaukee has not had as much success, but their success is in the present. Their success in acquisition has been very similar. Milwaukee differs in that they made a big trade for Yelich, Adames, and Contreras. Contreas was not as well established as the others but he did have a pretty good season the year before they acquired him. However, I just checked their current stats and the table below shows production by acquisition method. This table shows the WAR for players on pace to produce 1.5 or more WAR. As you can see players acquired as prospects represent the most players and highest percentage of WAR by a considerable margin. 2 Drafted 6.5 22.4% 2 International Draft 4 13.8% 7 Acquired as Prospect 13.2 45.5% 2 Trade for Proven 5.3 18.3% 0 Free Agent 0 0.0%

Cleveland has repeatedly proven this to be untrue. If we track their WAR for all of their 90 win teams you will find players acquired as prospects produced more 44.5% of their WAR vs 25.5% from players drafted in the regular draft. Their International draft is much higher than most teams primarily due to Jose Rameriz. I would suggest the upside is considerably higher (as is the downside) with a prospect because you have them for 6 years. Not only do you have 6-7 years of production vs 2, You have far more opportunities to be a playoff team. When quantifying value, is production for a team that does not make the playoffs as valuable as a team that does not make the playoffs? I would argue production from Ryan and Lopez is likely to have reduced value. Corey Kluber is a good example of upside. He was acquired as a prospect, produced 34 WAR and was then traded for Emmanuel Clause. Cliff Lee was acquired as a prospect. He was later traded for Clevenger and Sizemore. Our old friend Carlos Santana was also acquired as a prospect, BTW ... Jake Westbrook, the player Cleveland gave up for Kluber produced 2.7 WAS in 2 seasons with ST. Louis. Trading for prospects can be a bust, but it has enormous upside I don't think you are recognizing.

The 5 teams in the bottom half of revenue with the most 92 win seasons in the past 25 years are (8) Oakland (7) Cleveland (6) Tampa (5) Minnesota (4) Milwaukee. I compiled the acquisition method for every player that produced 1.5 WAR or greater for all 30 teams. The acquisition methods are Draft / International Draft / Acquired as a Prospect / Trade for Established / Free Agent.. The percentages are in the table below. Acquiring players as prospects has been far more effective than trading for established players or free agency. Drafted Intl AaP Trade FA 34.0% 8.0% 36.0% 11.0% 11.0% BTW ... I used a very conservative definition for established players. They were considered established if they had ever produced 1.5 WAR in a season. If we were to use a more stringent definition of established (for example having produced 2 WAR in a season or 2 years, the gap between trading for established and trading for prospects would be far greater.

I would prefer they ask themselves how they can build something much better than the mediocrity we have been watching the last 5 years. They could appease fans by keeping this mess together or they can do what's necessary to build a team with a legit shot.

You are absolutely right. I have when they become arbitration eligible and arbitration level in my spreadsheet and I had Wallner down for 2026. Somehow, I got the wrong info or entered info in the wrong cell.

He is the first call-up from AAA. Of course, this is debatable, but that's another conversation and it does not impact payroll. I don't see them rushing him because what would be the point. His presence is not going to thrust the twins into the playoff picture.

I am not trying to get to a number. Quite the opposite. The goal should be to make moves that facilitate building a contender and the lower payroll is simply a product of that process. You can keep Lopez and Ryan and win 75 games instead of 67-70 games but in the process you give up acquiring prospects that could eventually be critical in building a 90 win or a 95 win team.

The point was meant to be that payroll would be low even if they were willing to invest in a couple RPs. I could see them investing in the BP because they will most likely transition SPs to RPs and that takes times. Plus RPs are always good trade capital at the deadline. The $6M catcher again reflects a max spend. They will want someone good to handle a young staff. I am also thinking they move Jeffers at the deadline if they have a reasonable replacement. They might very well trade all three established SPs but I could see them holding out until the deadline with one of them. That gives them a little more time to ready the next up prospect for the big leagues. It will probably be determined by the return offered.

I understand their track record with position players is pretty bad but what's the alternative. They need to replace 5 of the 8 position players. The only players that wouldn't need to be replaced are Buxton, Jeffers, and Keaschall and you need 4-5 RPs. You can't come remotely close to putting a dent in those needs through free agency. The alternative is to trade away pretty much every good prospect they have and bet on making a run in 2026 and hoping there is a meaningful 2027. Post 2027 you would be assuring a very long rebuild where they would be horrible. They have the 2B of the future in Keaschall. With the preface that no prospect is a lock, There is a pretty good chance Culpepper and Jenkins are here by July 1, 2026. Wallner is decent so he stays until one of Rodriguez/GG/Rosario or Fedko push him to the bench or out all together. We should not give up on Lewis just yet. At least Lewis has become a good defender. Add to this list whatever they get for Ryan/Ober/Lopez and what should be a top 5 pick next year. By 2027 they should field a respectable team and the potential to sustain a run of several years in the playoffs by 2028. Granted, that's an optimistic view but it does not change the odds that staying the course on this rebuild provides the best probability of success.

We just see the situation differently. I don't subscribe to the theory that we should hold onto players during a rebuild because we already have a highly ranked farm system. Improving the system improves the likelihood of success in the post rebuild years and Ryan is the type of player that brings back premium prospects. That's always key to building a new core. I don't agree we give up nothing to keep him until the trade deadline. The return is generally better in the off-season and we avoid the risk of injury or underperformance which is substantial. The most attractive players to trade during a rebuild are the star players. Garrett Crochet for example. The Royals most likely don't win the WS had they held on to Greinke. Holding on to that type of player has the highest future cost which is a bad idea when there is little present benefit in terms of playoff aspirations, and you have decided to play for the future.

Wallner starts the season in the OF and is forced into a primary DH role by an OF prospect that plays better defense. Of course, it's possible he gets traded at some point in 2026. The 2.2 assumes allows for the possibility he steps up and remains with the team or remains with the team in a diminished role. It won't make much difference ($1.4m) either way so in terms of payroll it's not much of an issue.

Why must we trade Pablo's salary? With him they are still under $100M. Ryan will be the first to be traded because he would bring back two top 100 prospects and one of them would be a 1-3 ranked prospect for most teams. Those are key components in getting to the next level. Then, trade whichever player brings back the best package between Pablo and Ober. Keep one of them around for veteran presence. Pablo impresses me as the better veteran presence. Waiting until the deadline to trade Ryan is a huge mistake unless for some reason a great return is not presented this winter. The return should be better this winter and they avoid injury risk. My guess is that Ryan is by far the most likely of the three to be traded. Keeping him would be a failure to commit to a rebuild which is the would be truly unfortunate. This would leave us with Ober/Matthews/Festa/SWR/Bradley/Able/Morris who are ready and a couple of Rojas / Raya / Prelipp / Culpepper and should be ready at some point in 2026. Of course, it's possible perhaps even likely they get a SP for Ryan or Ober that will be ready for 2026 or at some point in 2026.

Here is a projected payroll for next year. Of course, we have to make some assumptions. I come up with around $77M if they trade Pable and Ryan which I suspect they will. Larnach is traded as well. This also includes adding two RPs at a salary of $5M each. Correa's $10M is included. There are a couple other assumptions here that don't mean much in terms of payroll. Culpepper eventually takes over for Lee at SS moving Lee to a utility IF role. The year starts with Fitzgerald in that utility role but it could be Eeles or they could sign a Wili Castro equivalent for a bench role. Of course, the return for Ryan/Lopez has a good chance of containing pieces that fit in at some point in 2026. 1 Bailey Ober 7,000,000 2 Zebby Matthews 820,000 3 Taj Bradley 820,000 4 David Festa 820,000 5 SWR 820,000 Relief Pitchers 6 Cole Sands 820,000 7 LH Free Agent 5,000,000 8 RH Free Agent 5,000,000 9 Michael Tonkin 1,750,000 10 Justin Topa 1,750,000 11 Travis Adams 820,000 12 Andrew Morris 820,000 13 Funderburk 820,000 Catchers 14 Ryan Jeffers 6,500,000 15 Cardenas / Trade / FA 6,000,000 Infielders 1B Fedko / Julien / Sabato 820,000 2B Luke Keaschall 820,000 3B Royce Lewis 3,000,000 SS Brooks Lee >>> Kaelen Culpepper 820,000 Utility Players 20 Kody Clemens 820,000 21 Fitzgerald >>> Brooks Lee 820,000 22 Kyler Fedko 820,000 23 Wallner >>> Gonzalez / Rosario 2,200,000 Outfielders 24 Wallner >>> Jenkins 820,000 25 Byron Buxton CF 15,142,857 26 Roden >>> Gonzalez or Erod 820,000 Carlos Correa 10,000,000 TOTAL PAYROLL 76,462,857

I guess I have a different idea of what should happen during a rebuild phase or perhaps some fans don't want to accept they are in a rebuild phase. Detroit and KC did not add meaningful free agents during their rebuild and that is the norm with any rebuilding team. The entire premise of a rebuild is to replace mediocre aging / expensive players with younger higher upside players. Once that core is set, fill in missing pieces from free agency. What would be the point in adding any veterans with the exception of the BP next year? All that would do is block prospects that could be part of the solution. It seems like a fair number of people are in denial that they are rebuilding. If Pablo is healthy (tradeable) there is a very good chance he is traded, and the payroll will be $75-80M even if they add a couple RPs. The plan should not be devised to win 75 games instead of 70. It should be to build a new core and eventual contender.

Totally agree on the catchers. and I am right there with you on Julien. However, it does not work very well to replace Julien with Eeles. Where would they play him? We want Lee and Keaschall at SS and 2B. As much as we question the Outman trade, at this point it makes more sense to have Outman in the OF over Eeles. Urena is a placeholder filling a couple starts until Pablo / SWR or Festa are back. I would not want them disrupting Able's development to fill in for a couple starts and Bradley looks like he really needs to work on some things right now as well. If the goal is to win as many games as possible for the rest of the season, starting Urena is a really bad idea. If the goal is to develop replacements over the remainder of this year and 2026, giving Urena a handful of starts is a non-issue.

We agree in theory but it's not like they have a lot of options. The only position player that might be ready IMO is Fedko and he has played all of 17 games at AAA . My guess is he is the guy they bring up when the rosters expand.. Sabato has been mediocre. GG has been pretty disappointing so far at AAA and I am not at all for rushing Jenkins or Culpepper. I would also be for keeping Vasquez on the DL and bringing up Pereda for Gasper. Fitzgerald and Eeles are kind of redundant and apparently Fitzpatrick can play some 1B. He has actually looked OK. Who would you like to see?

It works for the NBA and NHL. What do you think would preclude MLB from following their format?

A reasonable case can be made for all of them and that's a very good thing. It's Keaschall for me because is already proving it at the highest level. If we put a lot of weight on upside it's probably Tait. If I picked based on who we really need to pan out it's Culpepper.

The OF is going to be interesting given all the candidates. I think Larnach gets traded in the off-season and the starting OF to begin 2026 is Buxton/Wallner/Roden. Whoever has the best start of the season at AAA between Jenkins/Erod/Gonzalez will push Wallner to a timeshare where Wallner DHs. If it's Jenkins or Erod, Wallner DHs a lot. Perhaps a 50/50 split if it's GG. I am pulling for Fedko to be in that conversation as well. Of course, Roden won't have unlimited rope. He could be replaced in the same manner as Wallner if he does not produce. The difference being Wallner would still play almost every day and Roden would go to the bench or be sent down. The best case scenario is that Jenkins and Erod start 2026 strong at AAA and end up on the ML team before the midpoint of the 2026 season. Those two would give us much stronger outfield defense than we have had in a longtime and both can back-up CF. This team would look quite different in the OF and on the base pads with these guys playing every day.

You have a point but the team is in a very different place. It's a little harder to make these moves when you are fighting for playoff position. The emphasis now should be creating opportunities and find answers to the mediocrity we have been experiencing. The MO needs to adapt to the new reality.

I have been saying I don't see it with Brooks Lee since he was in AA. My belief is that Culpepper has far more upside and therefore could displace Lee before the half-way point next year if he does well out of the gate. Now, I am basing this on the belief that they will treat 2026 as a transition year. We will see the same thing with the corner OF spots. Jenkins / Rodriguez and Gonzalez will likely start 2026 at AAA but they won't be held back long if they perform.

I think the highlighted portion is pretty common in sports. Fans and fanaticism go together. Correa is a perfect example. There was quite a bit of discussion here questioning if the best baseball move would be to trade Correa. Yet, when it happens, for many, it was 100% about money. It's pretty simple. Correa is no longer a good SS and Lewis probably has more upside at 3B or it's at least a wash. We also didn't have Pena waiting in the wings when we signed him but we do now in the form of Culpepper.

My guess is Fedko and Morris pitching out of the BP if he is healthy. Of course, they need a spots for Pablo and Festa so there might not be room for Morris.

Taylor only had one year in the majors where his wRC+ was above average and that was only 104. He also didn't hit in Milb with the exception of a good year at AA. Outman hit well at every level and had a wRC+ of 116 as a rookie. He was injured and never got back on track. I didn't like the trade but acknowledge there is a reasonable chance he gets back on track. It's a great trade if he can back to being an above average hitter given his defense. I wouldn't bet for or against that happening.