Major League Ready

I definitely agree on favoring the more athletic player but I don’t see much problem with the 40-man next year. All of these players will be coming of it. Miguel Sanó / Chris Archer / Joe Smith / Carlos Correa / Dylan Bundy / Tyler Duffey / Gary Sanchez. There are a few relief pitchers that will be proven worthy or not by the end of this year. (Strotman / Romero / Cano / Minaya / Moran / Megill) even Henriguez is questionable the way he has been getting hit. I could definitely see them trading Kenta Maeda and Gio Urshela. That’s a total of 16 so cutting a dozen next year would not be a problem. All of the transactions since the Berrios trade indicate this FO is dedicated to two things, sustained success and building a pitching staff from within. Of course, the latter facilitates the former. The A’s are going to want Winder / Larnach maybe even Lewis type assets for Montas. Trading away those players does not promote sustained success. I don’t see it happening unless the Twin’s bats absolutely catch fire. If Steer is a reasonable back-up for SS, a bench of Steer / Arraez / Celestino and Garlick would be very strong. There are many potential directions. They could even trade Polanco this off-season. Of course, they could also sell high on Arraez. These are things the A’s or Ray’s would do.

Lewis is the one looking more confident at the ML level. Kirilloff needs to get right. His long-term development should outweigh the need to fill a spot specially given we have other options. A couple weeks ago I would have said we need him for 1st base but I am rather shocked how well Arraez has handled 1st base and that gets him in the lineup every day. I agree Gordon's time is coming to an end but he is still useful and he should be kept for a trade piece between now and the deadline. I would hope we could get a decent BP rental for Gordon or he could be part of a bigger trade.

Arraez is no surprise and Urshela played great defense in NY so that's not really a surprise. I voted for team ERA but Smeltzer's performance starting in spring training has been surprising. I would have voted for him if the sample size was 8 or 10 starts was a sub 2.00 ERA. He might emerge as the best surprise of 2022. Let's hope so. The same could be said for Joe Ryan in terms of sample size but he is getting to the point where I am believing he is a #1. It's just not as surprising because he was so good at the end of last year. How about Celestino or Duran? We knew Duran had the potential, but I was not expecting this right out of the gate and Celestino looks like a different player.

Moving Donaldson was absolutely the right thing to do given this team needed a new direction / new talent and long-term solutions. Most of us thought we would get nothing and pay a significant portion of his salary. The front office managed to get value players and ditch Donaldson's contract in full. However, as big free agent signings go across the league, Donaldson was far from terrible. There were a lot of big deals this past off-season. Semien has a wRC+ of 47 and a negative WAR. The Rangers other big addition (Seager) has a slash line of .225 / .290 / .391. Not terrible but not what you need out of a guy you just paid $325M. Colorado gave Kris Bryant $182M. His wRC+ is 82 and his WAR is negative. Javier Baez has a wRC+ of 66. He is getting $140M over 6 years. How about Robbie Ray who so many here were upset we did not sign. His ERA is 4.75. That’s just from last year. There were not many big FA deals prior to the 2021 season. Trevor Bauer was the big one. The 2020 class Donaldson came out of had Cole and Strasburg. Cole has been very good but Strasburg has been a disaster due to injury. Wheeler has been great. Go back further and you have Patrick Corbin who was another guy many thought we should have paid whatever it took. He was good the first two years but terrible the last two years and they have to pay him for two more years. Eric Hosmer was terrible for 4 years but has had a big resurgence the 1st quarter of this year. Big free agents fail often. If we were to list all of the $100M deals in the last 10 years, I would say that Donaldson would at a minimum be in the middle of the pack.

They have Celestino and Lewis and eventually Martin to back-up CF. Those three plus Garlick as a corner Ofers. Lewis and Arraez are the utility Infielders this year. Next year they will still have Arraez with Steer and Martin ready to take over as utility infielders and both will be better than Gordon. This assumes they trade or non-tender Urshela. I am assuming they can get something for him in trade. Hiopefully they can wotkout a trade for an A baller with some upside for Gordon. Can they trade him for international money?

Teams don't trade away players, especially RPs at this time of year unless you give them an absurd offer. They would much rather look at and select from multiple offers at the deadline. We also have in-house options that deserve a chance not to mention Alcala is hopefully back soon.

I was disappointed when they drafted Cavaco because the guy I wanted was Corbin Carroll and his 70-grade speed and great bat were available when we took Cavaco. Caroll is #13 on MLBs top 100 and he will probably debut early next year. His OPS is 1142 at the moment. Buxton / Lewis / Caroll and Martin would be crazy athleticism. I went from disappointed to perpetually POed.

The Twins have come back in more games than they have given up a lead late. Having said this, I have the same perception as you have shared. However, I am debating in my own mind if that velocity is that important given it has become quite common. Control, a secondary pitch, and movement on the FB are still key elements. I never though Stashak would survive but his control and movement makes him pretty darn effective. Of course, there are lots of other pitchers who are dominant with modest velocity. There are many pitchers like Kershaw and Greinke who remain effective after losing velocity. Obviously, it's great when they have velocity and all the other elements like DeGrom but are we too focused on velocity. Candidly, I am not sure.

Lewis is not being groomed for a super utility role. He is the SS on opening day of 2023. Rocco is on MLB radio once a week. I think the show is loud outs. He said they will give him a few games at 3B and LF but the majority of games will be at SS because that's in the team's best interest as well Royce's best interest.

I once fired an immensely talent subject matter expert. He was the most talented person in his group and also a disruptive PIA. That group functioned far better after his departure. What's so hard to understand about the importance of chemistry on a baseball team. BTW ... Donaldson's abrasive personality has been on display long before the altercation with Anderson. My memory might be off but my recollection of the reports when he was traded by Oakland suggested Beane got rid of him because he was disruptive and of course there have been other incidents along the way. I don't think it's presumptive for us to conclude Josh Donaldson is abrasive and I think it's reasonable for us to conclude he did not fit in here.

Send him on a rehab assignment for as long as possible and trade him during that period. Eat his salary and hope a team that needs a bat will take a chance on him.

What about the Astros, Cubs, White Sox and Royals. Glory was for lived for the Royals but it started with trading Greinke for Cane and Escobar. The White Sox started with trading Sale and Eaton. The Astros and Cubs tore it down to the studs.

Lewis is the best story of 2022. Balazovic might be the worst. What's going on with him?

I agree with the value proposition you have brought up here. Who here would trade 6 years of Joe Ryan vs 2 months of Correa? It's pretty hard to argue the 6 years is much better asset management. It's also hard to argue Correa would not bring an equivalent or better package than Cruz. However, the relative strength of the team does play into the decision. I also don't agree with those who say there is zero chance the twins trade him if they have a good shot at a playoff spot. What if they play 500 ball between now and the playoffs but the rest of the division is still sub 500. Yes, they would have an excellent shot at making the playoffs but a very meager chance of doling anything in the playoffs. That changes the likelihood of him being traded. The performance of specific players also impacts the decision. What if Gray or Ryan or Gray and Ryan get injured in the last couple weeks of July? What if Urshela is hitting more like 2019 than 2021 and Larnach and Celestino continue to look great. That would mitigate any gain associated with bringing up Lewis. What if Correa has an OPS of 750 and someone is still willing to give a Ryan like return? What if Lewis has an 1100 OPS at AAA. Could we reasonable conclude the drop-off would be negligible? The decision should take all of these things and more into account. The zero chance position without these considerations is that of excited fans which is fun but also a decision practice that is not good for the team. I also don't agree that non-playoff teams would be interested and if they were the return would not be great. Those teams will just take their shot next winter.

So, your argument is last year Donaldson he was the one player with fire so we should inject more players like him. This year (without him) the players are all competing very hard and the team is successful. None of us really know but the circumstantial evidence suggests Donaldson's presence did not promote the type of chemistry that promotes winning. We have a whole team that is playing hard and playing very well without Donaldson so it's very difficult for me to conclude his type of personality is the key to success.

I agree they could have managed paying Donaldson and Correa. However, everyone is looking at this from purely a present year lens and I think it had little to do with this year. Everything they did pointed toward putting together a good product this year with an emphasis on positioning for the future. They had several personnel transitions that needed to be made if they were to sustain any sort of real success. They may have also felt moving Donaldson was needed to improve chemistry / culture and they may have been very important during a period of other transitions. Miranda and Lewis were and are the future although I am sure they did not believe Lewis would be ready this soon. They also needed to transition Larnach and Celestino to the OF and this is going to be Sano's last year. Then you have Ryan and Winder taking over rotation spots and Duran / Jax and others taking over BP spots. The FO was betting enough of these players would be productive enough this year to improve the team while positioning us extremely well in the future. I also have not seen anyone include the $21.75M next year of the $16M in 2024 or $8M buyout. Whatever they are able to add with those funds in 2023 and 2024 needs to be added to this equation. I just don't think the 2022 budget was a major part of this decision. Every move with the exception of Correa emphasized the long-term. Rodon is the only free agent SP that would have been a good add. Many here would have been very happy had they signed Ray and kept Donaldson. IMO, they are waaaaay better positioned as a result of trading Donaldson and not signing Ray or Stroman or even Pineda had support here.

My take on this team from the 1st day of the season was that they would be good and could be very good by end of the season. Well, I would say they are already very good but not Astros / Yankees / Dodgers great. If Winder and Jax continue to establish themselves that would make me more confident. Add Canterino at some point and get Alcala back would help. A healthy Kirilloff playing the way we know he can would help although Arraez has been better than I would have expected at 1B and that opening keeps his bat in the lineup most days. Things are looking good but this topic will likely have much more clarity in 8 weeks!

If we can keep Ryan / Gray / Ober / and Winder healthy, they could stack Archer & Bundy with Smeltzer as depth.

It sure seems like only the bad is remembered or acknowledged. Berrios has a 4.75 ERA. Every pitcher we have, with the exception of Bundy has been better. The free agent everyone insisted we had to have was Robbie Ray. His ERA is 4.77. Then, when Stroman was signed for only 3 years the theme was why not here. His ERA is 4.88. Most contributors here did not think Garlic should be on the roster, Some insisted Sanchez was horrible and he has looked great in May His wRC+ for the month is 132 and climbing. He certainly has not be the downgrade at Catcher some insisted he would be. Many hated the Pressly trade but Celestino and Alcala for 6 years is looking more valuable than Pressly for a couple months of a lost season and in which we won 100 games. The Ryan trade was an absolute fleecing. What an incredible boost to the team for a rental. Duran was also acquired for a rental. How many people did not believe in Ober? How many people did not believe in the pitching pipeline at all? How many people wanted to trade Royce Lewis? Granted, many were firmly against but plenty were all for moving him for pitching. It will take a lot to go right to have an Astros type run. We may not dominate but this team is very well positioned for an extended run of very good teams. Extending Buxton, deadline deals and pitchers drafted outside the top rounds are the reason. Losing Berrios does not look like it made a difference. Spending the money the would have spent on him wisely is actually another opportunity to help build a contender just as getting rid of Donaldson salary provides an opportunity.

Is there any news on when Jorge Alcala might be back? Sure would like to have a healthy Alcala the 2nd half.

Being an optimist ... It looks to me like he is become very good at placing the ball away from the infield alignment, especially when going to the opposite field and he is using the whole field. He also has a two-strike approach. Will he regress. Yes, but these skills that have emerged should make him a darn good hitter especially if he develops a little power. I never thought Wade would have any power so there is hope for Celestino. A little power would make him harder to defend. I am on going to ride on this bus for now while believing a good player has emerged.

Yes

Actually, CES started off very hot but has not been very good in May. (.217 / .304 / .391 ) I was hoping he was the 2022 version of Jose Miranda and there is plenty of time for that to happen. Unfortunately, he is not looking like a guy who should be promoted at the moment.

You are right. That's an article worth reading. I especially liked the part where he quantified how Tampa and Cleveland acquired pitching. Most importantly he noted that the players acquired in trade had never produced more than 1 WAR before being acquired. I have posted the same data here several times on both pitchers and position players as well as other playoff teams. This information is obviously not understood by many fans who insist upon the opposite strategy. The whole basis of the article is balancing the short-term with sustained success. It would appear from what I see here that the majority of fans are much more focused on the immediate. The problem is that practices primarily focused on the present significantly deteriorate the chances for sustained success. Trading impact players with 6 years of control for a rental is a suckers bet. A dozen teams will trade away long-term assets at the deadline. Only 1 team can win the WS nad there is certainly no guarantee they will win. The Dodgers traded away some significant assets and it got them nothing. The Rays (to my surprise) traded Ryan from Cruz. Do you think they would like that deal back? Now, trading almost nothing like the Braves did and getting a huge boost is a different story but one that is rarely seen. None of this suggest they should or will trade Correa. I would assume they keep him. Balancing short and long-term success would suggest it's perfectly reasonable to retain Correa. However, as the author suggests, there are many potential "right" ways to proceed.

Thank you. Yes, the rule exists. However, instead of blindly suggesting the current rule should be enforced shouldn't we examine why it doesn't work? Not only are there stipulations that impede enforcement, the proposed rule is very different than the existing rule of 12 seconds. The rule implemented in the minors not only allows 14 seconds and an additional 5 seconds when a runner is on base. The suggestion they should just enforce the existing rule is rather knee jerk with little thought regarding the current failure or future success.