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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    So replacing Simmons with a rookie will cost us 11 games?
  2. Major League Ready
    I fail to see the difference from a practical or functional perspective. Does the player's unrealized potential result in an important asset to the Twins or not. Command seems to be what's holding him back to me. If he had harnessed that command at 22, we would not have him. I am not a member of the Saints coaching staff so I have little idea if they are seeing something that would suggest he might breakout or not. It does however happen with pitchers so I see no need to be so pessimistic.
  3. Major League Ready
    Prior was 20 years ago so that spans 600 picks. you mentioned 3 in the last 20 years. Strasberg was #1 overall and Prior #2. Harper took two years so I don't know how that counts. Garrett Crochet pitched 6 innings so technically he made it to the big leagues but he is not even remotely the same type of talent as the others mentioned. We would need to come up with 3 more to get to 1/100 limiting it to 1st round picks. The point being I fail to see who this is a meaningful measure in any form.
  4. Major League Ready
    There are quite a few Pitchers who "break-out" 2 or 3 years after reaching the big leagues so I don't know why a 25 y/o in AAA can't be considered breaking out if they take a big leap forward. Liam Hendricks is a good example.
  5. Major League Ready
    How often does it happen with any team? Even if we look at only 1st rounders, what percentage make it to the ML level the next year. 1 in a hundred?
  6. Major League Ready
    You have a much more optimistic take on their chances in 2017 than I believe was present. They finished 17 games back. Cleveland and Houston had 100+ win teams and the Twins were OK offensively but the starting rotation was led by a couple guys (Santana/Berrios) who would be at very best 3s on a real contender. Their chances were extremely slim in my view and the 2017 Twins and the 2021 Braves are not comparable teams so the premise we should have been buyers at the 2017 deadline is not what I would takeaway from this discussion.
  7. Major League Ready
    This begs the question why did they take a guy in the 1st round with questionable bat speed. Was injury hampering his bat speed? If not, how does a guy with questionable bat speed and no defensive value get taken ion the 1st round?
  8. Major League Ready
    Just curious how everyone views this proposed roster. Does this team look like a real contender? Does Rodriquez seems low at $12M?
  9. Major League Ready
    I don't think anyone would disagree but that's not the point. Where I disagree is when someone says Arraez is a better hitter than Sano or others. BTW ... I have never been a big Sano supporter. However, Sano has a career OPS+ of 119 and Arraez 113. Sano has a wRC+ of 118 and Arraez 113. I don't see anyone saying a player can't be great offensively without hitting a lot of homeruns. We are just saying that average and OBP have to be quite high to make up for a lack of power. Arraez was great offensively in 2019 but his production was down considerably this year. It makes no sense to have him in LF where he is a poor defender and does not have the bat for the position either. It makes no sense to put him at 2B when you have Polanco and it makes no sense to put himn at 3B when you have Donaldson now and Miranda in the winds. So, it's nice to have his bat in a utility role but he could probably yield a player in trade that would make a greater contribution to contending?
  10. Major League Ready
    I was about to write basically the exact same thing until I read your post. I don't really understand the message provided in the OP. Atlanta took a shot bringing in some guys who all performed at one time or another but were mediocre at best. Is this what Twins fan want? This was a prayer that worked out incredibly well? They did it because it cost them nothing in terms of prospects. What I see here is fans want to trade for players like Scherzer, Turner, Berrios, Cruz, Baez, and top RPs. All of those teams failed. Just like every other year buying (no matter how big) ends up failing at the deadline. Even in a case like the Cubs, can we say with any real certainty the Cubs would not have won without Chapman? Did the Royals need to trade away Manea in 2015? What are the odds they would have won without Zobrist? So, what's the takeaway here?
  11. Major League Ready
    He found something when he moved to Cedar Rapids. It was only 97 PAs but he had a wRC+ of 165 and an OPS over 1. I was really down on him but his performance in CR gives us some hope. I did not like that pick at that time and it came the year after they took Cavaco which I really hated. They could have take Stott or Carrol. Stott ended last year at AAA and he could have been our SS next year and Carroll is a 60FV prospect. Man, that ticks me off.
  12. Major League Ready
    I really don't know what to think he could return in terms of pitching. That's why I have suggested in the past we might be able to trade him for a SS that is blocked. Lewis is the only really good SS prospect we have and there are certainly question marks with him. Maybe I am misinterpreting some posts but I the context of the posts seems to indicate some posters are advocating trading Arraez for established major league pitching and I just don't see that happening.
  13. Major League Ready
    Kind of a one-sided view. Gurriel also massively outproduced Arraez. His average was 25 points higher and his slugging percentage was 86 points higher and he hit 15 bombs vs two for Arraez. They certainly are not the same hitter so it makes little sense to compare them in the way you have here. There is nothing flawed about JM's argument.
  14. Major League Ready
    What if it's a SS? What if it's pitching prospects. It would seem that a team trading for Arraez would be a contender and contenders generally don't trade established major league pitching, right?
  15. Major League Ready
    I think your definition of “can hit” is a bit narrow. Arraez hits for a high average but that’s not the only determining factor in creating runs. Arraez has a career wRC+ of 103. Garver-122 / Sano-118 / Even Kepler is 101 and he provides great defensive value. I think you are also looking back and not where we are going. Kirilloff is already more impactful than Arraez and he has the potential to be far more impactful. Who knows exactly what Miranda will do be he will likely have a much greater offensive impact. His strike out percentage is very low and his slugging percentage very high. We also have Martin in the wings with similar skills, more power, and more speed, and better defensively. Buxton is only has a 99 career wRC+. I too hope his SSS this year is a view of what’s to come but we should also have some confidence in Kirilloff and Miranda.
  16. Major League Ready
    Have to agree no team is trading a pitcher with this profile without getting back an elite prospect. These trades are always presented as multiple decent players for a great player but when does that actually ever happen?
  17. Major League Ready
    Obviously this changes significantly if they trade Buxton / Donaldson or Arraez. If Donaldonson gets traded, bring up Miranda and spend the extra dollars on pitching. They could also give Buxton a bump in 2022 as an incentive to extend but I doubt the immediacy of the pay raise is a big factor. So, ideally they spend the money on pitching or a top SS. IDK how good this estimate for Stroman and Taylor is so the numbers could change a bit. It would also be nice if the Pohlad's approved $140M. I am not real confident in Dobnak but Winder appeared ready last year and they have quite a few others that I would rather see in that 5th spot than another Shoemaker type. The players with a X are depth and obviously there could be several others included. At some point I could see a couple rookies sharing the 5th spot being "stacked" That gives them the exposure we need for developing internally.
  18. Major League Ready
    I framed this poorly. I meant they won't trade away top 10 prospects for short-term (less than 3 yrs) controlled established impact players to get better next year. In other words, they won't leverage the future. I could definitely see a trade of Donaldson or even Arraez and they are obviously significant assets. Rodgers wouldn't be a big surprise if the return was good. Buxton wouldn't be a shock but I am with those who really want to see him extended. I think they might even trade Garver if they got a haul. Of course, Kepler would be a significant asset and he would not be a big surprise either. I believe they have too many holes to fill in one off-season without trading away a very significant portion of our top prospects. That's why I don't think we see any top prospects traded similar to Snell / Darvish. Any team could cash in the farm at anytime. You just don't see below average revenue teams go there. San Diego was absolutely loaded so they could afford to spend some of that capital.
  19. Major League Ready
    I agree and this framing of how to proceed is fair and honest. I also think nearly everyone is solely focused on a plan to compete next year while ignoring the near impossibility of getting a top 3 capable of contending in one off-season. At least it's nearly impossible without a combination of a lot more revenue and an extraordinary farm systems like the Padres tapped into last year.
  20. Major League Ready
    Now you are just framing this up to suit your needs. For starters, your math is technically correct but we are not talking about calendar years. Of course, you know this because Cave was here for 4 seasons. 2018/2019/2020/2021 so either you are trying to mislead us or you are just ignoring basic logic for convenience. Also, the context of the conversation was clearly adding pitching next year. Everyone here knows we could trade away our established players and rebuild. Are you really telling us what you meant was they should take an approach targeting 4-5 seasons from now?
  21. Major League Ready
    Go back to 2011 and look at the posts on this site. The majority of fans ALWAYS think the future is now. Year after year the cry was we are ready go for it now. Fans are simply much more willing to trade away the future compared to GMs. It's a lot easier to take that stance when you are not accountable. This team has far better odds of building a winner via developing internal pitching. Therefore, any strategies that don't facilitate that goal are inferior strategies. Prospects volatility is way overplayed for three reasons. The most important one being that a below average revenue team has no chance if their prospects don't work out. Second, free agents also fail at a significant rate. Third, trades for prospects or yet to be established players has a bigger impact on building a team than trading prospects for established players for below average revenue teams. Leveraging the future with so many unknowns is very poor management practice. Falvey and Lavine are very skilled regardless of what some people here like to believe. I will be shocked if they trade away any significant assets this year.
  22. Major League Ready
    I actually agree that Kepler is not the type of prize Oakland would look for in a trade for Manaea. I was just being Captain Obvious pointing out the considerable added value of three years of control. Frankly, I think trading for any of the highly coveted pitchers mentioned here is going to cost considerably more than what has been discussed. Teams in the Twins position generally don't leverage the future for the present so I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed.
  23. Major League Ready
    3 years vs 1 substantially influences trade value, especially when it's a cost controlled player in their prime. One year just does not bring back that much in trades anymore as we have seen with numerous examples unless you are talking a Mookie Betts level player. Trading players controlled for 3 or more years for 1 year of control is a good way to ensure long-term mediocrity.
  24. Major League Ready
    Baseball Trades shows this trade favors Oakland but it's fairly close.
  25. Major League Ready
    Losing Maeda was a big blow. If he was not hurt and they sign a "Stroman type" and Pineda and we have a good team. Probably not a contender but the only way this team gets to contention is if our pitching prospects develop as we hope. The other option is basically the approach San Diego took. However, we would need to aim higher than Darvish and Snell. The trade proposals mentioned here for Alcantara and Montas seem waaaaay short t me. We don't have any blue chip prospects with the possible exception of Kirilloff but even Kirilloff is not the type of player Miami would look for if they traded Alcantara or if Oakland traded Montas. Therefore, I would think we would have to offer a number of our top prospects. Look what we got for 1 year and 2 months of Berrios. My guess is that Alcantra would cost us Kirilloff + Jeffers + Balazovic + one of Winder / Enlow / Sands and I still don't know if that would do it.
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