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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Blaine Enlow being the 11th best pitching prospect is pretty exciting? I guess we could say the same thing about Strotman being the 15th best pitching prospect. I am going to watch a lot of Milb baseball this year.
  2. Major League Ready
    A contender is going to trade pitching for Sano?
  3. Major League Ready
    Is Duffy healthy because that's an interesting option?
  4. Major League Ready
    I understand where you are coming from as well. However, there is one overriding principle that everyone who wants a quick fix ignores with the type of justification listed here or the many other forms we have seen. The evidence / history is quite clear in terms of how successful teams are build. Literally, not one person has provided an example of success yet there are countless posts insisting the path to success is a product of strategies that rarely if ever succeed. It's one thing to be unaware. It's another to absolutely refuse to look at history which is the closest thing we have to fact. Ironically, I see building from within as the best way to make it feasible to utilize free agency. I believe we will have enough home grown players + Maeda for a rotation next year. A that point we will both have more funds and a better idea of where they should be spent. Maybe that's a front of the rotation guy. Maybe that's a SS or maybe they could afford both. Basically the Rays way while spending another $60M.
  5. Major League Ready
    You have a point. So show me examples of where a team added a couple of mid tier free agents that carried them to success in the playoffs without already having homegrown talent leading the rotation. What I see in all of these responses is a desperate desire to be as good as possible next year and a complete refusal to do what's necessary to actually build a contender. That's why people are at odds with the front office.
  6. Major League Ready
    I appreciate someone finally providing an example. However, how are the Giants relevant in a discussion about strategies employed by below average revenue teams? They are a top 5 team in terms of revenue. It's also not fair to just generalize they were FA acquisitions in the context of this discussion. The claim here is that the Twins failed strategically because they did not sign any of the top FAs which of course is consistent with long-term expensive free agents. The Giants top performer was signed in 2020 on a 1 year $9M deal and then resigned to a qualifying offer, another 1 year deal. That's hardly the same thing as what they are being criticized for here. And, BTW, they did not resign him (even with theri revenue) when it required a 5 year contract. There other top performer (Webb) was drafted. They also got solid production from Alex Wood on a 2/$25M contract. Also not at all the same as what people are calling for here and certainly not what the Twins need to get back in contention. They do have a huge contract on the books (Cueto) which produced virtually nothing after the first year. Equating how the Giants were built or where their production came from to the strategies being called for here is a real reach, huge revenue difference not withstanding.
  7. Major League Ready
    It does not make sense to me to insist they made a mistake or they are waiting a year unless you can provide examples of below average revenue teams that went deep in the playoffs the year after adding the 3 SPs via trade/ free agency or a combination therefore of with 2 of those spots being the top of their rotation. Lots of insistence here that the appropriate strategy was obvious but not a single example of when it was successful. For every example provided of top free agents or trades for top SPs, I will come up with 3 success stories where the team was primarily built on players they drafted or traded for before they were established performers at the MLB level. It's not a mistake to follow the best practices. Let's see some examples of below ave Rev teams that built pitching staffs through trading for established SPs and/or signing top free agents.
  8. Major League Ready
    Snell and Odorizzi combined for 3.2 WAR last year. They are not going to make us legit contenders unless every player on the roster has a career year. From all appearances the FO is focused on building a pitching staff from within. I would hope they would not abandon that plan/focus for Snell and Odorizzi.
  9. Major League Ready
    You are making wild assumptions. You said .... "I like Winder and probably wouldn't trade him, but you just compared 54.2 innings to a whole bunch more. Kind of cherry picked there, how about comparing AAA numbers?" My statement was pretty clear. It makes no sense to look at 17 IP at AAA when he was hurt. Turning this into not worrying about his limited IP at AA or suggesting I am making him out to be a "can't miss" is awfully dramatic. My guess is none of the prospects w/o ML experience are starting the season with the team. The 1st 6-8 weeks of the Milb season is going to be an audition to determine who comes up first. However, it's possible one of these prospects looks great in spring training and goes north with the team. It's not like they can't send him down in 6 weeks and give someone else a shot.
  10. Major League Ready
    He only had 4 games at AAA. They moved him up and his velocity and command dropped off right after being promoted so his AAA numbers are not very meaningful.
  11. Major League Ready
    I go the Milb package specifically to watch our top prospects.. Quite often I only watched the pitching side of the inning and I too watched most of Winder's games. He was quite dominant. There is a good chance he is the next man up and maybe even out of spring training if he looks good.
  12. Major League Ready
    Montas and Berrios had exactly the same WAR last year. We got SWR and Martin for a year and 2 months of Berrios but the exact same players for 2 full years of Montas would be a VAST overpay?
  13. Major League Ready
    I think by the end of 2022 we will finally be able to grade that trade. I am betting Alcala will be a dominant RP this year we saw at the end of 2021 and we have him for 4 more years. I think we see quite a bit of Celestino too.
  14. Major League Ready
    IDK about this year but beyond 2022 I suspect at least a couple of our SP prospects are going to have a significant role in the BP. Who knows, Jax might be good in the BP. I think Valimont is best suited to be a RP. I am hoping Strotman finds the command necessary to be a SP but he might be a RP. The big one is obviously Duran. I sure hope he is a front of the rotation SP but if not he might be a shut down RP. I also think we are going to see fewer SP and RPs in traditional roles. There are going to be more 2, 3, and 4 inning pitchers.
  15. Major League Ready
    That's seems like an extreme long-shot and we would still be trying to establish a rotation in 2023. We would also not get the Abs needed to establish Miranda / Martin or the OF candidates. I would much prefer a full season to audition as many players as possible and go into 2023 with some new talent with some ML experience and a good understanding of what needs to be done in the off-season to be a legit contender.
  16. Major League Ready
    If they added 4 arms over even the next year and a half and a couple of them were legit #2-3 we would be in very good shape for the next 6-8 years. Trade away the wrong two like we did with Ynoa and Gil and the equation changes substantially. The problem is that we could pick the prospects among them most likely to succeed and so can the teams trading away established pitchers. They are not trading those established pitchers unless it's for the most likely to succeed among our prospects. Getting Two good established pitchers would likely cost four of our top six pitching prospects. If we established 4 prospects in addition to Ryan and Ober there would be no need to add any pitching via free agency other than a top of the rotation guy for the next several years. They are talking this approach because the payoff is a 6+ year window. The alternative is two years with a modest shot at contending. The Padres who had the best farm system in baseball used that depth to trade for 3 starting pitchers. They won 79 games. We heard the same endorsements of trading for Snell and Darvish. Those two surely do not look like reliable difference makers and the Padres are stuck with this strategy because neither pitcher is worth more than their salary at this point. Darvish was replacement level for the entire 2nd half. They traded away 10 prospects on this bet. Maybe we should sign Musgrove as a FA next year! If they build an entire staff from within, they would have about $60M (post Donaldson) to spend on a top of the rotation guy and a SS. If Lewis turns out to be our SS, they would have another $30M to fill holes. That's how you follow the Tampa / Oakland model but also take advantage of our added financial resources. Oakland has the best record of below average revenue teams and the most 90 win seasons over the past 20 years because they trade 2 year assets for 6 year assets so why should we do the opposite?
  17. Major League Ready
    Bauer was acquired after his first season in which he was below replacement level. Kluber and Carrasco were prospects that had never pitched in the majors. The trades being suggested here suggest trading prospects for established players which is an entirely different strategy. While they are both trades, one could argue that trading for prospects is and entirely different strategy than trading prospects for established players. If you look at Oakland and Tampa’s rosters over the years you will see that trading for prospects had a huge impact on their success.
  18. Major League Ready
    Winder was going to be the next man up. Do we know if he is healthy or is this something we won't know until spring training?
  19. Major League Ready
    The only place I would be less inclined to spend that kind of money is 1B.
  20. Major League Ready
    Mooney's K rate is really impressive. What's his velo on his FB and does he have a plus pitch among his other offerings?
  21. Major League Ready
    Most of the talk here has been about SPs with 1-2 years of control. I am sure we would all welcome another Maeda or Odorizzi deal. The only way they are getting 3+ year players is to trade away multiple top prospects. I have said it before and will say it again the logic that we have not succeeded in the past at best practices (developing pitching) means we should pursue inferior strategies just drives me crazy. The solution is not to follow bad practice. That's a horrible plan. History is very clear that developing pitching is crucial to success so get better at it. Change the people. Change the practices. Change things until you are at the top of the industry at what matters most. BTW ... it looks like they have improved. We are about to find out and trading away those assets right now is about as ill-advised as it gets.
  22. Major League Ready
    I agree when the trades give you a good shot at contention. However, trading away significant assets to get to 500 or slightly above is a really good way to stay mediocre or worse. Oakland and Cleveland have by far the most 90 win seasons among below ave revenue teams over the past 20 years. Is Oakland making trades to supplement their 86 win team last year? No. They are trading away the players many think we should be acquiring. Why? Because they understand being a little better short term will hurt them long-term.
  23. Major League Ready
    Standing pat would be to run Happ and Shoemaker out there as SPs and Simmons as the SS and whoever in LF. They are actually going to change a great deal but that change is going to occur over the course of 2022 and into 2023. That change just does not compute if your sole focus is opening day 2022.
  24. Major League Ready
    I have posted the production of 5+ year free agent SPs more than once. I am not going to go through that exercise again but I will summarize by saving 3 WAR season are unusual. Perhaps more importantly to the Twins, their production after the 1st year is downright horrible and beyond year 3 they are a serious detriment outside of a couple truly elite SPs (Scherzer/Greinke/Verlander) who defy the normal decline. History also shows us that successful teams of similar revenue have never been a product of high-end / high dollar free agent SPs. Yet, many here insistent we sign them now so we have them when we are ready to contend. This is a horrible strategy. Given the 1st 2 seasons are by far the best and they are generally a detriment the last 2-3 years, it is crucial to sign them when the team is in a window of contention. I would welcome examples of success stories from anyone who disagrees.
  25. Major League Ready
    Have to agree, what's the rush and why get ahead of ourselves? 2022 is going to be the year to figure these things out. The best case scenario is Donaldson plays well enough to be attractive in trade after Miranda has shown he is for real.
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