Major League Ready

Wouldn't that be something! He won't be Machado defensively, but he looked average to me at 3B. I thought he was better at 3B than he was at 1B and you have to believe he will move better as a result of physical conditioning. I hope he is an absolute beast this year.

Me too. I did not like the Solano signing. I felt like that roster spot provided the opportunity to filter in Milb players and test them at this level. Solano likely does not offer enough upside to warrant taking that spot for the young guys. Of course, this assumes reasonable health among position players but we are not going anywhere if we have the same level of injuries as last year.

Burnes has a zips projection of 5.4 WAR. Robbie rays is 1.7. He is not even close to a comp. Carlos Rodon is not as good either and he got 6/162. Burnes we be the same age when he enters free agency. He is a better and more reliable than Rodon. Burnes probably gets 6-7 years and at least $200M. Also, where trades are concerned, Alcantara, Fried, and Cease were acquired as prospects. That's an entirely different premise than trading for an established ace. For that matter, Gallen was acquired as a prospect and then traded again with a total of 36 major league innings. In reality, there are a total of 2 SPs that are ace level that were acquired as established SPs.

Who's spot does he take? Farmer and Solano are not going anywhere. Buxton / Kepler / Gallo and Taylor are locks. Miranda / Correa and Polanco are locks as is Kirilloff if he is healthy. Vazquez and Jeffers are locks. The only spot left is Nick Gordon. The only way I see him getting a shot early is if Kirilloff can't go.

Polanco is not sitting on the bench so that a rookie can play right out of the gate. It would be fantastic if Julien was so good he forced them to trade Polanco but no way that happens on opening day. No way in hell Lee takes Miranda's spot at 3B. He has a total of 8 ABs at AA. I would prefer Larnach to Kepler but it's the same story. There is no room for Larnach with the addition of Gallo and Taylor. The four OFers are Buxton / Kepler / Gallo and Taylor. Farmer / Gordon and Solano are the utility players. Therefore, Larnach starts the season in STP.

Your point is much more thought-provoking than mine. My point was simplistic. Ability to spend is a product of what you bring in and any discussion about spending levels is useless without a comparison to income. Your point asks a much deeper question. If the Pohlad's are willing to forgo a normal profit or accept losses, should we prefer they spend $10M for 1 win in free agency or would we prefer the Pohlads donate the money to a shelter for battered women or the homeless, cancer, research, etc. That choice is real. BTW ... we are in complete agreement far more than we disagree.

I would have argued it was a terrible mistake when the contract was to be 11-12 years / $350Mish for the reasons you stated and because it was likely to be quite detrimental for the last 4 or 5 years. I would still be against it if the expenditure on Correa would preclude them from landing a top free agent SP. However, I already have a projection for next year and Correa’s contract is not problematic if one or more of Varland / SWR / Balazovic / Canterino and Festa can stick by next year. We have roughly $50M coming off between Mahle / Gray / Maeda / Gallo / Kepler and Pagan, assuming Kepler’s option is not picked-up. Polanco is also very likely traded by the deadline next year. We also have Raya and Prelipp who have the potential to be ready by mid 2024. My first instinct was the same as your position. Once I ran the numbers I found they can spend $30M on a free agent SP and still be $10M (estimate) under this year after arbitration increases. So, the bigger obstacle is convincing one of the top guys to come here. Philly has plenty of money for Nola and the Yankees can afford to keep Severino. That rotation would be Free Agent / Lopez / Ryan / Paddack / Ober or one of the prospects I mentioned. Where I land on this one is a player like Correa at 6/$200M is hard to pass given two things. One, we don’t have as much long-term risk associated with this level of free agent. Two, we are in a rare position with this much young talent. Correa will not negate their financial ability to add a top free agent SP. Having said all of this in support of signing Correa, your position still has a great deal of merit because it’s quite possible we could have filled SS and 2B with top prospects and had a boat load of money to sign pitching an extend players. Bottom line is I don’t think signing Correa to this deal was a terrible mistake but it is all together possible it would have worked out better to wait for Lewis or Lee.

I am arguing people make arguments that do not follow the principles of finance. Market size does not equal relative revenue. St, Luis is a good example as is Miami on the other extreme. San Diego is an extreme anomaly as are the Mets. Using anomalies to make an argument is very ill-conceived. I would LOVE for the Pohlads to care so little about money they were willing to lose $100M a year. I just don't expect it.

Ask any kid coming out of college with literally no experience in the real world this question ... How much should we EXPECT a MLB team to determine their payroll. I would hope 99% of them would say the equation is as follows. 1) Expected Revenue less 2) Draft bonuses (roughly) $15M less 3) Benefits (retire / medical, etc) (roughly $15M) less 4) All other operating expenses - The articles I have found on this subject estimate 30-40% of revenue but I have not found an article that provided meaningful detail. 5) less profit 6) The net is what is available for payroll. No such logic has been applied here. As a matter of fact relative ability to spend was not even considered. Even if you expect the owner to make absolutely nothing, the equation starts with expected revenue. Therefore, to call the premise of revenue dictating what a team can spend a strawman is to put it very kindly a very naive position that defies the most basic principles of finance and business. How is it a distortion of fact to say that how much a team spends should be compared to the amount it has to spend when concluding their relative willingness to spend?

I think we all knew that the highest spending teams have higher win percentages. Now, if you don't know that the amount of dollars taken in determines the amount of dollars that can go out, we could logically expect the twins and every other team to spend the same amount. To make an argument about how much the twins should spend relative to other teams without including the relative level of revenue makes absolutely zero sense. Should we as individuals all spend the same amount regardless of our income?

"Continuing to rely implies there is a better option. "How would you go about not relying on improved health? Who would you trade? How do you get around the fact that it's hard (not impossible) to trade established talent for established talent? How do you get around the likelihood a player with injury questions has significantly reduced value.

Varland and SWR have less than 30 IP. Winder has 67 IP and has been ineffective. Ober has 148 IP with a 3.82 ERA. For me, that's significantly different than the other three. He needs to prove he can stay healthy, but I will take that kind of performance out of the last spot in the rotation.

Did you forget Lopez or don't you like him? Ober is just fine as a #5 too. His slider looked quite a bit better at the end of last season. If that trend continues, he will be able to put more guys away which has been a problem for him. I also think they extend one of the current established SPs.

Hopefully, the team has implemented strength and condition regimens that are paying off. It could just be spring training radar guns a little off on the high side.

There no doubt is uncertainty with this team but it's not just about linear development. We had an unusually high rate of injury. Therefore, the odds are we have less injury this year. Gallo had a very bad year compared to his career numbers. It's more likely he we will be better than worse. Kirilloff only had 150 PAs and was hampered by injury all year. His production has a far better chance of improving than getting worse. Mike stated it well when he said the ceiling is in question but the floor is higher.

So what you are saying is that if four of our proven SPs go down we don't have four more proven pitchers to replace them. Sorry, but that's just unrealistic. The facts are we added Mahle / P. Lopez and J Lopex. That's a significantly different team and we have lots of depth. That depth is never proven middle of the rotation guys for any team. Taylor's defense and Farmers ability to hit LH pitching are improvements. No, we can't count on Kirrilloff / Alcala / Maeda / Larnach / Julien, etc. individually. To expect all of them to contribute would be very overly optimistic. However, the odds are a couple of this group provide a contribution. Therefore, the team is better positioned than it was last year. If you want to see everything from a worst case scenario the outcome is always going to look bleak.

I just can’t comprehend how people can say this is the same team or they have not done enough. The team that started 2022 was well above 500 and leading the division when the injuries piled up. The additions include two very good SPs (Mahle and Lopez). That’s a very significant difference in itself. In the BP, Alcala is back and they added Jorge Lopez. Granted, Lopez was not good with us but he has great stuff and it’s reasonable to expect him to be a net gain and possibly a significant net gain. Then, there is Kirilloff. Sure, there is uncertainty but it’s still a positive development. Farmer is also a better addition than he is getting credit for. His defensive flexibility and ability against LHP is a net gain. We also added depth to the pitching staff. Ober is now the 6th starter. Varland / Winder and SWR are legit depth. Miranda was horrible to start the year. We go into 2023 with a reasonable expectation he is a middle of the order bat. We added a great defensive back-up in Taylor and Julien looks ready to contribute in 2023 as well. How is this the same team that started 2022?

Isn't that also true among college teams? Obviously, not to the same degree but I am guessing a lot more SS are drafted out of college vs 2B or 3B.

It's easier to predict against LH pitching. Farmer gets overlooked but he was fantastic against LH pitching last year with a wRC+ of 157 and his career wRC+ is 122 against LHP. Vazquez has a career wRC+ of 130 against LH pitching. Buxton/Correa/Polanco/Miranda/Vazquez and Farmer are the 6 best bats against LHP. We should be pretty darn good against LHP. The guys who can potentially fill that role against RH pitching have question marks. If Kirilloff is healthy, he is probably the guy. Larnach has the potential to hit there and the 2021 version of Gallo would work as well. Miranda had a 110 wRC+ last year against RHP even with his horrific start to the season so he could hold down the job too. By mid-season let's hope that Lewis or Julien or both are vying for middle of the order ABs.

I will take the over on 82.5 wins. They are going to send a quality SP to the mound every game and they have depth provided they are not decimated by injury like they were last year.

I don't quite know what to think. The SP depth bodes well for an above 500 team. The rest of the team has depth as well but with lots of question marks. If things come together this could be a 90 win team. KIrilloff, Gallo, and Larnach all have some serious upside and one of the prospects (Lewis/Martin/Julien) could have an Arraez like impact.

I wonder what the ratio is in terms of the number of SS drafted vs 2b and 3B. Just a guess but I bet there are 2-3 SS for every 2B or 3B.

How is this a "priority move"?

Megill still has 2 options. He will have to look pretty sharp this spring or he starts his year in STP. Taking a look at Hoffman and Santana for that last BP spot provides a couple of no risk options. They also have the option of putting Ober or Winder in the BP to start the season. There is also Cole Sands who can pitch 2-3 innings stints. I seriously doubt we see Megill to start the season.