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Dman

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  1. Dman
    I guess I see the attraction. In 2021 his WHIP was essentially 1.00 with a solid K rate and an ERA of 1.66. Whatever changes were made it blew up on him in 2022. His main issue was giving up the long ball. 25 of them in less than 100 innings. That will inflate your WHIP and ERA in a hurry. As noted in this article the fastball looks too hittable and looks like another Texas pitcher Henriquez who the Twins have in their system. If the Twins can solve the meatballs he is serving up there is a decent chance for an elite pen arm as he has two plus pitches according to MLB.com . Although for a plus fastball it sure gets tagged a lot. This only works if they can tame the fastball and have him keep the ball in the park. Seems unlikely but maybe they fix one of these guys for once.
  2. Dman
    Correa Signing fills a huge hole at Shortstop and gives the team another potent right handed bat which are in short supply on this team. With Correa they can now mix and match the future infield With right handed bats Miranda, Lewis, Correa. Polanco\Lee, Martin or go more lefty with Gordon, Correa, Arraez, Jullien, Lee\Polanco. Some of those players can also mix and match in the outfield. Correa makes this team stronger while the young guys earn their way up. if the pitching holds up this signing might have saved the season. Still need good health and bounce backs from the younger players but the Twins are in much better shape now than before the signing. Oh and only having that high AAV for 6 years helps down the road as well. This deal is about as good as we could have hoped for.
  3. Dman
    So just how bad was that Mets deal? 200M over 6 years all of his prime years is the best deal I could have imagined. If he meets the vesting option add another 4 years at 70M Absolutely perfect. Am I dreaming? Why would the Mets or Giants not do this deal? They don't want the high AAV? This sets the Twins up to give out larger contracts if some of the young players turn into stars or superstars. Like I said I couldn't imagine a more perfect deal for the Twins. Correa just needs to stay healthy and bring that 4 WAR a year or so and he will really, really, help this team.
  4. Dman
    So just how bad was that Mets deal? 200M over 6 years all of his prime years is the best deal I could have imagined. If he meets the vesting option add another 4 years at 70M Absolutely perfect. Am I dreaming. Why would the Mets or Giants not so this deal? They don't want the high AAV? This sets the Twins up to give out larger contracts if some of the yong players turn into stars or superstars. Like I said I couldn't imagine a more perfect deal for the Twins. Correa just needs to stay healthy and bring that 4 WAR a year or so and he will really, really, help this team.
  5. Dman
    I think you are right. Correa is someone who cares about his legacy and building HOF career. Much easier to do that on a team that seems likely to compete for a WS every year. With the lineup they have pitchers are more likely to pitch to him as well. The Mets are far and away his first choice which shows his words about MN were more of a fall back position. In case no one else really wants me I always have MN. Yeah if the Giants are out there really isn't much of a market for Correa other than the Mets and the Twins. Maybe the Cubs? The Dodgers, LA, SD, Phili, NYY, seem done spending big. If would be odd if Boston was in after letting Bogaerts go. So Cohen is right Correa needs the Mets more than the Mets need Correa. So if he wants to go there it looks like it will take a discount of some kind to get there. Borras is up to his old tricks holding out for more. Given the market he might end up needing to get Correa another short term deal.
  6. Dman
    I can't really argue whether they thought other teams might think the plate in his leg would be an issue once you get past 7 years or so and with 12 and 13 year offers that could be a big deal. They did have the advantage of having his medicals and knowing his potential health issues so maybe that is why the furthest they would go was 10 years and tried to up the AAV. Still odds are they would have no idea what those other teams felt would be acceptable risk. So yeah unlikely they would know for certain the Giants would renege on their offer. On that point you have me but whether by luck or circumstance it appears their number was a good one for actual value of the player.
  7. Dman
    But in the end even though they offered that he didn't get it so it doesn't reflect his market. They could have offered him 400M or 500M if he doesn't get it he was never worth 400M or 500M or 350M. Even the Mets didn't pick up the 350M offer. If his market ends up around the Twins number then it seems they read it correctly to me because that will have been actual price paid. His actual market regardless of whether they thought the Giants or Mets wouldn't want to give him 12 or 13 years because of the leg will be the number he signs for. If the Mets are balking at 315M it sure looks like his actual value will be right around what the Twins offered. So yeah I think they had his value pegged pretty well. I gave the FO a really hard time as I thought 300M was the starting line and they never made it there. It looks like I am going to be wrong and in the end they are going to be pretty close.
  8. Dman
    To me it doesn't matter if they knew or not but it looks like the value they placed on him was about right. I said it would take 300M or more but I think he falls short of that now at least in guaranteed money.
  9. Dman
    If 9/270 is the offer I think given the circumstances that is more than a fair deal with all the balking other teams are doing. Still I would offer a 10th year as a team option with 10M buyout just to be sure. From what I have read online and no one knows for sure but it seems like the Mets are fine with the first 7 years at the 26.25 AAV they offered on the initial 12 year deal so that puts them comfortable with the first 184M of this deal. If they want injury protection on the leg for the next 5 years and lets say that means they pay half of the 26.25 for the next 5 years then that comes out to around 250M after 12 years so not that far off of the Twins offer granted with more years. If the Mets we willing to stretch to 9 years like the Twins with only 3 years of discount if injury to the leg then their deal comes out even closer to what MN if offering at about 280M through 12 years. So I don't think this thing is a done deal for Minnesota yet. I mean I know players need to be excited about the team that ponies up the money for them but I am a little surprised that given how much he supposedly liked MN that his camp is so willing to work toward the Mets versus MN. Maybe Boras needs to keep Cohn happy as he is likely to have more clients that need big money contracts and the higher markets are better to work with. Running the numbers I still think MN falls just short but not as short as I originally believed. Turns out the FO had a good offer from the start I just couldn't see it at the time. If Correa wants to be a Met he will be Met if wants to be a Twin he will be a Twin. The Twins did their part as Correa asked them to. Will he do his part? That remains to be seen.
  10. Dman
    I am most bullish on Jullien possibly making a difference this coming season. He is on the 40 man. He has a good eye at the plate so if struggling with the bat still has the ability to get on base. He has power in his profile and works counts. He does everything you want a good hitter to do. Defense is not his calling card but if he can just get close to average somewhere his bat will carry him. I expect Brooks to have a good year but not being on the 40 man and if the Twins have a bit of stacked infield I find it hard to believe he would be up with the team before September and most likely next year. If the Twins are out of it at the deadline and they make trades to clear things up maybe he gets a shot but with potential service time implications I just doubt we see much of Lee at the MLB level this year. Really hoping to see Martin rebound and if he does he could be the Twins right handed version of Nick Gordon. He is on the 40 man and he can play 2nd, center and left field and supposedly short if you can live with the errors. If he gets his Mojo back he too has a good chance to play around the deadline or if injuries mount. Jordon is a total wild card. If he pitches effectively at all in AAA odds are they will use him this year at some point. If he is just average to bad with the same high WHIP he might be in danger of being removed from the 40 man. This could be a career defining year for Balazovich. It is a nice group of players and I hope they all have great years and make their way to the big leagues.
  11. Dman
    Yep but you are still dependent on someone with power like Judge to drive him in. Agreed not everyone can do it but you said earlier that you didn't understand why power developing power was so important. Power drives in runs with doubles and HR's. They make pitchers pitch around power bats so OBP can be higher so average can be lower. Power is the key that is why it is important. That is why teams try to cultivate it. Not saying other skills are not important just that adding power makes players more desirable and better able to help the team win games.
  12. Dman
    Yep totally agree. Hard to have a team full of hitters with power, avg, OBP and speed. The question was asked why power is so important and just wanted to throw my two cents in. Getting on base is important. Not making outs is important. So there are other ways to contribute but when all is said and done if those skills overlap and someone else adds power to their profile they are gonna take the other players job.
  13. Dman
    Celestino got off to a hot start last year but also had an unsustainable BABIP. I didn't watch a ton of Twins games last year but when I did I saw him mainly hit singles. I did sour on his bat as the season went on he was kind of a black hole in the lineup. If he doesn't develop power then to me he is a 4th outfielder at best. Still he is a right handed outfield bat and I believe he will improve as time goes on. As most on here are saying he should start at AAA and earn his way back up.
  14. Dman
    To use an extreme example look at Aaron Judge vs Luis Arraez. Judge can hit the ball out of the park. He walks a lot and he hits for a decent average. He also plays above average defense at his position. Which team would have more success a team full Arraez type players or Aaron Judge type players? I think you know the answer. Since Arraez doesn't have power it doesn't mean he isn't valuable it just means he isn't as valuable as players who have close to his skills at the plate plus power. If you are looking to make your team better you are looking for players that fill out the full spectrum of skill set and power is an important piece as with one swing you can change a game. In Summary encouraging players that make good contact to sell out for power can make them more valuable if they can do it. I would say developing power is very important in todays game and likely always will be.
  15. Dman
    I think Martin profiles best in Center field if his defense is good there. He doesn't have a great arm and that is why I don't think he is a good candidate for short. The arm hurts him in center some too when there are deep balls hit to center. Still he has speed, a good eye at the plate and is someone who can make contact so I think his value position (if he can play it well) is center. Granted he has potential for super utility as well. If you read the article from the Athletic (subscription required) then it appears the Twins did ask him to tweak his approach to go with a power swing early in counts and then shorten up after two strikes. Here are some excerpts from that article. "Before the start of the season, the Twins attempted to implement changes to Martin’s approach at the plate. The idea was that Martin — who has played a lot at shortstop but more likely profiles at second base and in center field — has such good bat-to-ball skills that he could sell out for power early in the count in an attempt to do more damage. Even if he didn’t come through, Martin is so good at hitting with two strikes that he could shorten up and still get on base enough to warrant the change." "But Martin recently told MLB Pipeline he used his time off to recalibrate. He created a new plan with his hitting coaches and started to get going again. Martin returned to action on Aug. 17 and, reverting to more of his old approach, finished with a solid September." So it is possible the Twins messed with his head too much. Hard to say but he does seem to be back to his normal self but without a ton of power. I am still a believer in Martin in the "Nick Gordon" role. Will have to wait and see how things turn out but this is a big year for Martin.
  16. Dman
    TBH I was thinking that if they think they are getting Correa to sign that they might be packaging Kepler and Enlow for something. I think you are right that they could add Larnach in a package as well for the right return. It depends on how they feel about Wallner in left as a replacement for Larnach I would think. I would skip on Mancini and probably Pillar. Wouldn't mind Farmer back on a decent deal as again if they sign Correa they will be dollar conscious. I guess will know in the next 7 days how things play out.
  17. Dman
    I just hope you are right that they have a nice trade package setup! That would make me happy as then are getting a high octane arm in Ortega and getting something for Enlow. I would be OK with that.
  18. Dman
    I think if they had a trade lined up this would be a horrible order of operations to do it in. It would make more sense or be better to do the trade first as in this scenario they have no leverage after 7 days. Still to your point I would hope they could get something decent in return for Enlow or that there is some sort of plan here. I know he was just coming back from TJ last year but he looked pretty hittable and a lot of the hits I saw were hard contact. The FO might just be down on what they think he can do. Hard to say.
  19. Dman
    I guess I thought the odd man out was going to be Sands and his 5.47 ERA but they must feel Enlow has the best chance to make it through. If you look at MLB.com Enlow looks like he has more polished pitches but I guess if the Twins are looking for a young power bullpen arm this move makes some sense. I don't love it when relievers have such high WHIP's but maybe they can teach him a slider or help him find the zone more. I do love having another high octane arm to work with and hopefully this is a move that works out. For anyone interested Ortega was the Angels 16th best prospect in 2021 not that the Angels have a top farm but he has been good in the minors. This also shows how hard it is for teams to carry arms that are not quite ready yet. Enlow was more than likely dead weight this season for sure but I think he might end up being the better pitcher in the end. Will have to wait and see how this one turns out.
  20. Dman
    Wow I can't believe it. Still just how bad is this leg issue if even the free spending Mets don't want to the deal without more protection. I mean if Borras and Correa are certain it is not going to be an issue then just include the language that if that leg becomes an issues the contract changes. I would love Correa for the next five its the five years after that that worry me.
  21. Dman
    If the Twins ended up with Correa I would have a lot of crow to eat. I still think the Mets get it done. Borras likely leveraging the Mets using the Twins offer as the bottom. If the Mets don't match then onto the Twins I would guess. The Lowest they can go is the Minnesota offer if you ask me. If the Mets don't match the Twins offer then I have to believe the Twins will get another chance. This has to be one of the craziest things to happen in Free Agency ever.
  22. Dman
    Yeah I agree he always had trouble as a starter making it through a season even in the minors. If they wreck his arm as a starter and he needs TJ he could be out for two years. He made it through a full season in the pen at the MLB level with minimal issues and is an elite arm in that role. Do you want to risk losing your elite shutdown arm for a chance for him to do something he never really proved he could do in the minors? If it were me and I admit to being risk averse but I would keep him where he is. The other issue is he never really did develop that solid third pitch he needed to be a starter so he might not have the same level of success he has had as a reliever. And finally how many guys are there in MLB that can throw 100MPH fairly consistently as a starter (maybe Greene)? I guess I am not aware of any so again I think reliever is the right role for Duran.
  23. Dman
    I don't know if you have been following Aaron Judge much but he is a career .284 hitter who K's about 28% of the time and just signed a contract to be the highest paid position player in baseball. I think that should tell you what teams value and it isn't batting average, it is OPS. I like Arraez a lot. Love his plate approach, his enthusiasm, and his work ethic. However, I would take Judge over Arraez any day of the week because with his power he can impact the game in ways Arraez just can't. Rodriquez is only in A ball but if he essentially maintains that profile all the way up he has a more valuable skillset than Arreaz at least the way baseball is played today. Granted Arraez can help the MLB team right now. Rodriguez could be years away yet hard to say.
  24. Dman
    While Kirilloff and and Larnach have more value they also haven't been much worse or better than Kepler at the plate and they have a lot more years of control left. The Twins thing to do would be to move the higher salaried player IMO. Also Keplers ceiling appears to be known while Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner are somewhat unknowns at this point. Certainly they could trade anyone of those players for the right deal I just think Kepler makes the most sense.
  25. Dman
    I go back and forth on Max's trade value. I mean several teams could have had a Max type player in Gallo for just money and yet the Twins managed to snag Gallo for a one year 11M contract. Max only costs 2.5M less and you have to give up trade capital as well. To me that says his market value might be lower than I was hoping. Still Max shows strong underlying numbers in a lot of area's and if the Yankee's did grab him with the short right field porch it could be a difference maker for Max. Just a few extra HR's that make it over that wall adds to his OBP and Slugging and I bet those numbers start looking much better. If the Twins do trade Max to the Yankee's they better make it hurt because I have a feeling he could have a monster season in the Bronx. I do agree with Mike though the Twins need to find a decent return or they might as well just hang onto Max. His value could increase by the deadline anyway. We will see if some team pony's up but it might be a while as teams continue to fill out rosters with FA's and decide what to spend there tradable assets on. Unless the Twins get a deal they deem to good to pass up I would probably hang onto Max.
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