Dman

I really like the guy and your article gives me hope that he can turn things around as we really need him back to who he was for this team to be better.

Have to say at the time I didn't really love the Schobel pick. A short player with mainly pull side power and all average tools. Seemed kind of ho hum for a supplemental 2nd round pick. It is early but have to say that pick is looking pretty good right now.. It is past time to move Schobel up. He is tied for 1st in HR's in his league and second in OPS. He managed that after a brutal April and first part of May where his OPS was .600 and I don't think he had a HR. So his collective numbers don't tell you just how hot he has been the last month and a half. He isn't getting any younger as a college bat and being at the top of his league he doesn't have much left to prove IMO. Keep him moving as he might be a special bat. Rosario has been in a deep July slump. Not sure if he lost some of the discipline he had early in the year or maybe dealing with a slight injury? Hopefully he gets the bat going again. Rodriguez also having a tough time and slumping. Need those two young guys to get their mojo back as they could be two difference making bats. Still young so plenty of time but would be nice to see them get going again. I love the AAA box scores but I think the Saints finally ran into some good pitching and it shows that those numbers don't tell the full story. Good pitching has shut down those good bats. Hopefully they can learn from that.

I think we all would love to see him fall to the Twins but hard to see him fall past Washington let alone the Tigers or Texas. All teams crave a fast moving ace type pitcher if he makes it to 5 my head might explode.

Nice post!! I am not as good a writer as you are but that was a great read. Thanks!

I agree with pretty much everything you said but the thing we don't know is the end result. Consensus is all fine and dandy but it doesn't guarantee players work out as expected. Jenkins is the 5th best player in this draft until he isn't. Lot's of players get hyped and don't work out in the end. Jenkins had some questions about a hip impingement issue and questions about a potential swing path issue with handling balls up in the zone that might stop him from becoming an elite player or they might not matter it is hard to say. Still there are questions as there are with every player that will be drafted. So far pretty much every outlet has the same top 5 in various orders so the top 5 consensus hasn't changed in last three to 4 months. It is the power\hit combo that had Jenkins ahead of Clark in most early mocks but that seems to be changing now with Jenkins being slower and more believers that Clark can hit for enough power. I feel pretty confident that Jenkins lines up with what the Twins like in a hitter and his makeup likely seals the deal. The more I look on the draft writeup's the belief is he has an All Star caliber hitting profile. I don't have a problem if they take him but sure would have loved the power righty college bats or a sure thing up the middle center fielder. Hopefully he is a Langford or Crews type bat in a few years time. I still like Teel but catcher is such a tough injury prone position it seems the risk there might be higher than Jenkins and the same with going any pitcher not named Skenes. I think you are right best bet is stick with the top 5. They all seem to be good choices.

I just don't know a ton about Jenkins and for me I need him to be a better version of ERodriguez, Rosario, or JRodriguez as they have good power bats and project to left and right field. Granted his speed and arm might be a bit better than Rosario and JRodriguez and maybe his bat ends up elite hard to say. He doesn't fit a huge need for me and I know that defies BPA. I also feel like he has the least buzz of the top 5. Still a big guy with strike zone control and compact swing that might be elite is the upside you want at number 5. Seems like he has been mentioned everywhere except the number 1 spot and he is consensus top 5. With him having high character I assume the Twins will grab him at number 5 if he is the player that falls. Granted I know the least about him out of the top five but he seems like the least desired of the top 5 options to me. Still I believe most of the Twins superstar players started out of high school and the top players in high school get identified early. He probably is the pick they should make but will have to wait and see how things shake out.

Clark is a perfect fit for the Twins. Gives them an elite defensive center fielder that can come up with the next wave of young hitters. Twins are stocked at AAA with guys to try so they have time to wait on high school players if needed. He might not ever have great power which is dropping him but the Twins can get that from other positions. If he is there at five and they skip on taking him I will be really disappointed as I think he is BPA and fits a system need.

Maybe Larnach and Wallner are not the answer in right field but we won't know for sure until they get a chance. My frustration with Max came from all the ground balls and pop ups to the right side. He just hits it where they are so often and kills rallies it gets hard to watch sometimes. Yeah he still gets his walks and goes on enough of a HR hot streak to even things out some but over time you start to yearn for something more. I think that is where most fans are with him. Yep Larnach and Wallner could be worse but we need to find out and we should have Rosario and Rodriguez close to ready if they get moved up to AA this year. They need something better than average in right and I don't think Max is the answer.

I might be overly pessimistic but if they can get decent returns I would trade whoever I can at the deadline kind of like Cleveland does. This team is hovering around .500 and while the pitching staff has been elite the offense has been so bad they are barely above .500. Even if they manage to win the division this is not a team that is going to beat Tampa or Houston and maybe not even be able to beat out a wild card team that might have a better overall record. My trade conditions would be to sell only if there is value otherwise just leave things as they are. I would only trade Gray if they were sure they are not gong to be able to resign him and they get a top 100 prospect back in return as he is a sure thing to get them a supplemental 1st rounder when he rejects the qualifying offer. If they are not going to extend Maeda then I would do everything I can to get some kind of return by trading him at the deadline. Here is hoping that Kepler and Gallo get hot in July. They need to trade at least one of them and ideally both of them. I would not DFA Kepler if no trade happens as he could still gain value and be a trade asset at the end of the year. Gallo has been good enough to be useful but would look hard to trade him and he may be the one player I would take a sub optimal return on. Solano is having a good year and might be a tough sell as 1st basemen DH ( I think he can still play 2nd) but if he keeps hitting like he has been getting some value back in prospects would be good. Pagan hasn't been bad in low leverage but again if they are not extending him get value while you can. Unless extending, Michael Taylor would be another player I would try and get a return on. He is elite defensively. Has some pop in his bat. Can bunt and could be a huge get for a playoff team that needs extra depth. Get a good return while you can. Celestino can take that spot the rest of the year. I hesitate to include Polanco as when he is healthy he is a pretty elite bat but with Jullien right now and others coming up it feels like they could afford to move him if the price was right. I wouldn't just trade him to trade him though. If it is possible to trade Gordon I would. Castro does everything Gordon does only better. Neither player walks much and they both are streaky hitters but Castro feels like the better fit and they don't need both. Not sure they can find a taker at the deadline for Gordon but maybe they can get something done in the offseason. So yeah pretty much anyone on a one year deal and or players with option years I would try and trade. They won't be able to trade all of those players anyway but they should listen and try to get some value back while they can. This team just doesn't feel like it is going anywhere this year so get rid of what you can, get the young guys some experience for next year and see what you have in Celestino, Larnach, Wallner etc the rest of the year. That is my two cents.

I agree with others that it is far too early to tell what SWR or Martin might become but agree with the OP that in their current state things are concerning. The emotional side of me says that if Martin is a Gordon\Castro type player that feels like a poor return to me. In the draft thread no one wants Wilson at #5 and he is essentially Martin with the bat with maybe slightly slower wheels. So it sure doesn't feel like the future is bright there IMO. Still the rational side says he has always been an elite contact hitter and he needs time to get back to who he is\was. Gonna need more time to see where he is at and he far too talented to give up on this early. SWR never did develop the fastball as hoped and the secondary's are good but not elite. It feels like he has toped out at AAA but again he is young. Lot's of players have growing pain seasons so too early to give up on him as well. He does look better as pen arm to me which wouldn't be the worst thing since Martin was the main piece in the trade. Currently things don't look good for the Berrios trade but by as early as next year they could look great. Just too early to tell but to the OP's point yes things don't look as good today as they did at the time of the trade.

Of the three Kernal's with 12 home runs it looks like Ross is the first to hit 13 tied for 1st in the league with Jace Jung. Have to say I didn't see this kind of power coming from Ross out of the draft as I figured he would be more of a doubles power guy but if he keeps this up he could have 5 tool potential. There is work to do as he needs to bring his batting average and walk rate up and K rate down but he has time to get there. I would think he has to be exceeding expectations for a first year pro from a smaller school. I love the power but am finding you need to be well rounded at the plate to succeed all the way up. I hope he reaches his full potential. E-Rod is also in the top 10 for HR's in that league so you can see the Kernals have a pretty lineup. Pitching has been very good there as well so they are a tough team to beat. Hoping to see some of those players move up and see if their skills translate to the higher levels.

Taking Prep pitchers high scares me. Most Mocks have Meyer in the 9 to 10 range and a few lower than that mainly based on how difficult it is to project hard throwing righties from High School. Given the college pitching options ahead of him I just don't see the Twins using the number 5 pick on someone like that unless they are cutting a deal for guys later in the draft. Still Petty seems like a pick that is going to work out and the Twins know a heck of a lot more about arms than I do. It just seems kind of hard to take a wild card in that spot when it feels like there is more solid talent at the top this year.

For all us stat watchers it was interesting to see the Saints go hitless against a really good probably MLB caliber pitcher for 5 innings. Once he left the bats started heating up and they won the game but it kind of feeds into the fact of why AAA stats can get so inflated as they don't face MLB caliber pitching game in and game out. Still that lineup at St Paul is MLB caliber as well with Wallner, Celestino, Garlick, Larnach, Williams, Stevenson, and Camargo. Gonna win a fair number of games with a lineup like that.

Like most a bit surprised Raya got the promotion to AA and yet maybe I shouldn't be since he has a ton of movement. I assume they keep at the same pitch count and just see how well his stuff plays at AA. Seems like the Twins have been more aggressive when they can be with the promotions this year and I think that is good. That Cedar Rapids team has three players tied for second in the Midwest league with 12 HR's in Rosario, Schobel and Ross. Cossetti isn't too far behind and hits the ball hard but he started at A ball and hasn't been quite as dominant at High A. With Ortega up and doing pretty well himself most all of the Twins top 10 2022 hitters from the draft are really doing well. If there was room I think all 5 could be at AA by the end of their first full pro year. AA is generally a tough test for hitters although the Texas league seems to be a bit hitters league. At any rate hoping those guys just stay dominant all the way up.

I was looking at the International League stats for AAA and to my surprise Jake Cave leads that league in OPS. He is ahead of CES and Wallner and Williams and 20 spots ahead of Stevenson. It looks like he is doing it with Doubles power as he has 28 of them so he is still hitting the ball hard and at AAA they are falling in. I have really come to appreciate Stevenson and I think he is faster than Cave but Stevenson does lack power or I think he would be a major league player already. Also Cave was so bad for so long with the Twins I think it was past time for him to try some place new. At any rate I have to say to I was very surprised to see him number 1.

I was thinking the Lowder and Nola comp as well. Nola was a control pitcher without a big fastball. Sort of in the pitch to contact non of us wanted the Twins to take. I do like the elite (Santana Lite) Change he has and the Twins have been good at helping guys develop sliders and now sweepers. I still think the bats are too strong for them to go pitcher and going pitcher is always a big risk because if they have one big arm issue you come out with nothing in a deep draft. I wouldn't hate the pick but it would take some balls to make it IMO. The way the team has been playing I think this FO goes the safe route. Their jobs might depend on it.

I think I like Soto the best with Head not far behind. I don't think they will make it to the Twins supplemental pick but I would love to have either one of them. Schanuel would be a dream pick as well but I suspect he goes in the 20's as well. Your list shows this a deep top 60 players in this draft so all teams should come away with good talent this year.

He was never in consideration for me. Never liked the profile especially since he is slow runner. Not a guy you take top 5. I wouldn't be surprised to see him picked in the 20's. Just say no.

With OPS being king hard hit rate is supposed to solve all problems but when you can't hit the ball and strike out it doesn't matter how hard you swing it is still as easy out. The less you put the ball in play the fewer chances you have to make a difference in a game. It seems like the players that do best are well balanced at the plate. Wade, Arraez, Jullien Steer, take their walks and hunt good pitches to hit. It can be good to be a contact hitter but as Miranda and in the past Astudillo show us, if you don't make quality contact (weak contact) that doesn't work well either. The Twins have invested pretty heavily in three outcome players but when the K rate is high and the quality of contact generally low those hard swings are negated. Correa is horrible with two strikes. Just throw something way outside and he will swing to protect the plate and be an automatic K. I would pitch Buxton to the outside as well. Poor plate discipline equals poor results. I would focus on guys who can take walks as they are much safer bets to succeed when they get to MLB. Having a good eye is very, very important IMO. I don't know what the Twins can do to fix this as so many hitters are struggling. Kepler and Gallo have helped sink this team as much as Correa and Buxton. Three out of those four players are worse hitters than bench players Solano and Castro with Rookies Lewis and Jullien playing much better. This team has problems.

I think the top three are set at Crews. Skenes and Langford. I am not 100% sold that the high school kids will go 4 and 5 and I still think the Pirates might go Clark at number 1 if he is willing, and he should be, to take a discount to go number 1. Personally I think Pittsburgh should take Skenes as right and left fielders can be found later in drafts. Granted the two available could be generational bats but an ace pitcher is generally much, much harder to find. Still there is a lot of risk going pitcher as arm problems can negate any value the pick had. Still having a stopper type starter is what they will need to compete against the better teams so they should go big or go home IMO. I still think Texas might go with Teel. They are weak at the catcher position and his bat should play well and likely move faster. I could also see them going pitcher and Clark wouldn't be a bad choice either but I think Teel makes the most sense for them IMO. The rest of the draft is anybody's guess. Just way too many variables and guys are ranked really closely so just depends on what a team wants and what level of risk they want to take on. I like the mock it looks as solid as anything I have seen online. Thanks for sharing it with us!

HIs pitch movement is Berrios like or better. Just crazy movement on some of his secondary's. HIs stats look great and I love the sub 1 WHIP. K rate around 30% and xFIP and ERA pretty much match. The numbers make him look rock solid to this point. Just needs to keep those innings up and stay healthy and he should be a good one.

If the Twins had any semblance of offense I don't think it would be as painful to watch Arraez playing so well. This K prone, pitch chasing, unclutch with bases loaded, bunch of hitters makes you miss a guy that buckles down in the clutch and delivers more often than not. We all loved him but it seemed like someone needed to move and we needed another starter. So here we are. As others have said while he was always a difference maker we didn't win with him and his extra few hits weren't likely to change much this season either. Still the pain is real as this team feels like they would K if the pitcher used a softball. It would be nice to watch a professional hitter and Arraez is one of the best. He is gone now though and the FO needs to find a way to make this team better. Hopefully they trade some guys at the deadline and see what they have in the young guys because this team as constructed stinks.

Yeah lot's of high OPS's at AAA so not sure how much that means but if you don't have a high OPS there then you are likely in trouble. When you think about it hitters are facing for the most part what would be the worst pitchers at the MLB level as most of them haven't made it there or couldn't stay there. The best of the best are all in MLB so the hitters should find some hittable pitches against AAA pitching. IMO you have to figure at least a .200 point drop in OPS from AAA to MLB and sometimes a .300 point drop ends up being closer to what actually happens. Its a tough transition going against the best starters and relievers in the game day after day instead of guys who couldn't quite get there or stay there. Still I think when a player is in that .900 to 1.000 OPS range for a long stretch it is time to give them their shot. Only way to find out if they can make it is to move them them to the Majors and see if they can adjust. Williams can be pretty streaky I would want to see a fairly long period of dominance before adding but he could be a Collebello type late bloomer bat. Stevenson has been up before and wasn't horrible nor was he great but IMO I think he could be MAT like just not with the same level of power. Maybe his second time around he does better hard to say but I wouldn't mind seeing what both those players can do if the Twins are out of it like they might bein the next month or two.

Wallner will be up around the trade deadline. The Twins are going to hold onto their assets for another month and see if they can gain value for a trade. If no takers then depending on where they are in the standings I assume a DFA or two might be coming. Until then unless injury I think Wallner is stuck at AAA. I do hope he gets a good long run with MLB club in the second half. He looked pretty good the last time up in a SSS. Gonna echo another poster on Dobnak. He is starting to round into shape. I was starting to think he might never get back to who he was. He is going to need to show consistency this next month but if he does he can make a case to be added. Would love to see him make it back as a reliever. Too much contact to be a starter IMO but if he comes up with an out pitch then might be 5th starter material. At any rate just nice to see him doing well for a stretch. Schobel seems ready to move up with a monster June where he hit .326/.406/.629 for and OPS of 1.035. That is about as dominant as you are going to get. he is tied for 4th in his league for HR's and 7th for OPS and that is after a brutal start to the season. He is at a lower level but right now he is performing better than Brooks Lee. Hopefully they move him up and see how he does at a higher level. AA is the toughest level for a hitter IMO. The pitching is good especially off speed and breaking pitches. Most of the freebies are gone so much harder to get hits.

I will say that I prefer Teel for #5 if it is between him and Jenkins and I think Jenkins is the one who will fall to #5. Still I am going to go against the consensus of the board here and say I really like Wilson. Bat to ball skills are extremely important in making it to MLB. Yes power plays as well but if you can't hit the ball it all goes sideways. Wilson doesn't quite have Arraez type skill because he doesn't walk enough and that is a problem but one that will likely be rectified and while I don't see 20 HR power from his bat I think that like they did with Steer they can help Wilson get to more pop. He has a 65 hit tool runs well and has a strong arm. If he had more power projection he probably would be a 5 tool player. He is going to go top 10 as it is maybe even top 6. Yes I like the other 4 players better than Wilson and I have Teel above him only because it is so hard to find a good hitting catcher with Teels athleticism. Teel is a bit of a unicorn catcher if you ask me but I still feel there is a case for Wilson and who ever does get him might be getting an All Star bat with very good defense. Personally I like guys that don't strike out as they put the ball in play and it is a lot more fun to watch than then the K prone Twins. Neto had a similar profile and he was the first to MLB. Don't sell Wilson short.