Dman

You look at it and they have Lopez, Duran and Jax as solid top end pen arms. Thielbar might be close to that group as well. Question marks with Alcala, Pagan and Megill. They could be good, bad or somewhere in between. That leaves them with Henriquez, Sands, and Moran which should be solid lower end options for 6th, 7th inning. If needed they can also use Winder in the pen. Off the 40 man they have Coulombe and Dobnak as possible pen arms and Schulfer or Laweryson might also be options if they start out well in AAA. So they have a fair bit of depth for the pen right now. If disaster struck they could use Varland and SWR in that role for a while as well. So I guess I can see Falvey's point. Unless they are going to add a top end arm which they don't like to pay for then they probably don't need to add unless a deal they really like comes along. They will use at least 2 if not all 3 of the roster spots that come available. Hopefully one for another right handed bat and the other two for waiver claims on borderline 40 man pitchers that get waived as teams pick up more players as spring training nears. Or maybe, just maybe they find a guy they like for the right price and they sign him.

Nice write up Doc!

I wasn't particularly happy with the Noah Miller pick myself but it is a bit early to label him as just a utility infielder or a bust. Right now if you go to MLB.Com you will see he is rated 17th and I don't think they are too embarrassed about it. Fangraphs has him ranked 4th in 2022 they don't have 2023 out yet so they have to be crazy embarrassed about what grade they gave Miller. I don't know if you got to see Miller in Spring training last year but his defense looked essentially MLB ready to me. He looked poised for 19 years old, gobbled up grounders and set his feet well for good solid throws. I don't think defense will be an issue for him. His bat was problematic in A ball last year with a .211 average quality contact was lacking. Slugging of .279 anemic. The .627 OPS far from ideal. Positives on Offense were his walk rate was excellent and having a good eye at the plate usually leads to better pitches to hit. His K rate at 23% was not a huge issue either so he can make contact unfortunately it was weak contact. His .348 OBP is really good for the league but with little to no power and lots of easy outs he didn't have a quality year on offense last year. Here's the rub though. A ball is generally where all the recently drafted college kids start out and they have had two years of college ball to help them adjust to that level. They are bigger and stronger and have more experience at higher levels of competition than Miller played against especially in a cold weather state. The odds of him hanging with those players was slim to begin with. He will only be 20 next year with a full year of pro ball behind him. I think we can expect better things from him next year. He should be stronger and there should be fewer surprises for him next year. He doesn't have contact issues and has a good eye at the plate. There is still reason to be bullish on his future. Yep I know Rodriguez killed that league at 19 last year and he has a bright future but that doesn't mean Miller can't come around and figure things out yet. It was his first year of pro ball and he was up against more experienced competition. Let's give him another year or two and see how much his offense improves before worrying about ranking him too high or too low. FWIW he has dropped in the rankings from around top 10 to lower teens so there is some concern among evaluators.

I am in the give Joey Gallo a chance bucket and am hoping he does well enough to turn down a QO at the end of the season giving the Twins an extra draft choice. Still I understand where several posters are coming from. Seeing the bases loaded and Gallo up next and he strikes out is tough to watch. When players don't even put the ball in play there is no chance to score runs. It is probably the ultimate downer to not even give your team a chance in that situation. But yes I am with you on your premise. If Arraez gets on with a single and no other player gets a hit or moves him over nothing happens. If Joey Gallo gets a hit and it is a HR his singular hit impacted the game significantly more thus OPS tells a more complete story. Still clutch hits are sooo important and so needed on this team that likes to find ways not to score with the bases loaded and no outs. There is something to be said for both the Contact and power approach. More teams seem to be building around contact. The Guardians would be the main team and it is why Miami wanted Arraez. Teams will need to blend approaches to be successful IMO.

A little surprised Chourio made the cut at 30. DSL numbers are hard to quantify as the competition is variable there. Still from what I have read at Fangraphs and a few other areas he could be a five tool player as he has the size\build to hit for power. Would be nice if he ends up the real deal. Given the low league OPS at the FSL Rosario didn't do too bad there. I agree that he should repeat the level. I am still excited by the power profile and hopefully those contact skills improve as we need more right handed power bats in the system. I don't know why but I have always been a big believer in Severino's Switch hitting bat. He has been a very up and down player and injured a fair but I think this is the year he makes that leap to consistency. Not sure what position he holds down but I still think the bat could be special. His best role might DH if can control the strike outs. I didn't think Acuna would make the top 30. For his age and noted his start to the season he had a solid debut but being one of the younger players at the DSL level I thought the Twins might have him repeat the level. The FCL has humbled many DSL players their first year and some never even make it to A ball from there. He has the pedigree and as noted was hot after the initial cold streak so he might be better than the overall numbers indicated. Would love to see him in the FCL and they might as well challenge him early. Was very impressed with what Headrick did last year. I still don't know if he is starter material but if he keeps that WHIP and ERA down at AA and AAA it sure would be nice to have a viable Left handed Starter at the MLB level. Here's hoping he moves up this list into the top ten after this years performance. De Andrade's bat hasn't impressed me but with only 13.5 K rate he is making contact. Hopefully he figures out how to square up more balls or be more patient waiting for quality strikes. I am not as bullish on De Andrade at this time. A mini breakout would change that for me but I think he should repeat the FCL as suggested in the article. A ball seems to be a really tough challenge he doesn't look ready to me. Sands and Enlow are enigma's. They have proven they have the stuff but they both fallen off in the results department. Just gonna have to wait and see what 2023 brings to figure out what they are for real. Same goes for Balazovich. Pretty hyped on Nowlin but then I always do go a little gaga over K rate. I had him pegged as a reliever but if he can be a starter that would be quite the find in round 19. Needs to find more control but he has the stuff to get guys out. A nice list of far away guys and guys ready to bust the door down. Here's hoping they all make it.

https://www.mlb.com/draft/2023/order

If the Twins had more of a mid 1st round pick I could see them possibly adding number 32 on mlb.com Cole Carrigg. He shows as a catcher, outfield and shortstop. He also is a switch hitter. If the bat is for real and a team thinks he could stick behind the plate he could be a fast riser. Will have to wait and see how much helium is there around draft time.

It is early but right now there seems to be 4 players that could all go number one draft day and would be great fits for the Twins. Of course we pick at number 5 this year. Dylan Crews appears to be the consensus number 1 for the moment as he is a right handed 5 tool player that might stick in center but would be a plus defender in right and did I mention he was right handed and could be a fast mover due his bat contact skills. He would be a great fit for the Twins if he could fall to pick number 5. Next I have Langford he too could be a 5 tool player with power his calling card. He too is a right handed batter who could play right field but his arm might only be average so likely best in left field although he is going to be playing in center this year. He looks built like Aaron Judge except no one is as big as Judge but he could be a mini Judge and carries a powerful bat with a good hit tool. He would be a nice addition for the Twins as well. I have Dollander next who most project being taken 2nd because 11 of the Nats top 25 players in their system are already outfielders. They are swimming in quality outfielders and Dollander is a top of the rotation arm maybe not seen since they picked Strassburg. Dollander has it all and certainly could be the number 1 pick when it is all said and done if he has a dominant year and his arm holds up. I have him at 3 simply because pitchers can be risky bets if he fell to number 5 again if I were the Twins I would take him. At 4 I have the tooled up high school center fielder Max Clark. He has 70 grade speed and a plus to plus plus hit tool only lacking power to be a five tool player and since he is only in high school has time to develop at least average power. He would be the Twins center fielder of the future. It is hard to find 5 tools players and he looks like he could be a good one in time. At number 5 as Jeremy states certainly the next best bat would be Jacob Wilson. Guy only K'd 7 times in 275 plate appearances has solid tools across the board and could stick at short and did I mention he is right handed? He would be a good get at number 5 as well it is just that we suddenly are loaded with middle infield guys. I guess I would really like to see the Twins try to grab a tooled up player at 5 and if Bradfield had a better arm or a bit more power I think that would be a good pick for the Twins at 5 as well. Currently he only has three plus or plus plus tools Hitting is plus and run and fielding are plus, plus. Now hear me out while he doesn't have great power if he can get on base at a good clip those walks and singles could still land him on 2nd making him a secondary doubles machine. If the defense makes a mistake he ends up on third. Gonna be real hard to throw out an 80 runner. The arm if truly rated 40 is likely a problem though. Anything hit deep is going to require the cutoff man to go deep to retrieve the ball so it is possible guys could tag up at 2nd and make it all the way home depending on where it is hit. Still I think the Twins could use help in center with Buck hurt every year and Bradfield could be a fast mover and he maintains Bucks elite ability to get to balls in play. Personally I think there is a case for Bradfield at 5. For me I would love it if Clark was there at 5. The Twins skipped on Carroll who wasn't supposed to hit for power either and I think Clark will be the same. 70 grade speed makes him an excellent defender with a plus bat odds are he ends up a 5 tool guy and that would maximize the value of the number 5 spot IMO. Wilson isn't gonna be a 5 tool guy. He has an elite hit tool and eye which is very good compensation but we have some solid up the middle hitters and the system is very short on centerfield prospects at least ones with elite run tools. If he is there he should be the pick even though it might take him another year or two to get to the big leagues. If Crews or Langford fall they are right handed outfield power bats that this team could desperately use as well. Both should be fast movers and are solid 4 tool if not 5 tools players as well. Odds are low they make it to 5 but I said the same thing about Lee last year. Pitchers are the wild card as they could pop up into the top 5 Skenes has helium on MLB.com as does Waldrup. If they perform well they would be in the top 5 mix as well. Leaving them out for now as so many things seem to happen to top end pitchers during the year.

I have to say I was surprised at just how well Lawyerson did at AA. That is the Texas league a hitters league and he manages a 1.06 ERA and sub 1 WHIP. Wow! That is domination. He never had an elite fastball so I assume he has plus secondary's? I had thought a team might take a chance on him in Rule V but the rest of the league doesn't see him as worthy of roster spot just yet. Gonna be an interesting year for Cody to be sure. I really like what Cardenas did in A ball. He was one of the best all around players in that league IMO. Good bat, Good Defense. Good eye at the plate. I think he has a chance to be a really good catcher but there is a looong way to go. I like Mooney and the K's he produces but that WHIP was short of dominant to me. We will see if he passes the AA test and if he does then he looks like a viable reliver to me. After the 2019 Season I was ready to say goodbye to Michael Helman. He looked massively overmatched at the plate to me. Seth who never gives up on any prospect still felt he could make it. I guess Seth and that eternal optimism worked out this time around. Helman looks like a MLB utility player to me. If he keeps that slugging up he will get a chance somewhere. Maybe not the Twins but some team will want him. It is a nice list and I am excited to see the how the 2022 class does in a full season. Hopefully some of those guys makes some noise and bring the farm system up in the rankings. The international class has a lot of players that could already make their way to the FCL in Mercedes, Rodriguez, Nova, DeAndrade, Cruz, and Pena. With Pena and Olivar likely to start in A ball. So lot's of promising young guys to watch at the lower levels this year. As Always thanks Seth for the writeup on the prospects who give us hope for the stars to come.

I never looked into Fulmer all that hard so this article is a bit of a wake up call for me. Even last season I never thought he was a world beater and even with Detroit he had his flaws but he also was a veteran guy who seemed to get the job done. I still wouldn't mind if the Twins signed him as there isn't a ton of difference making arms out there as it is and the Twins don't pay top dollar for relief arms. I still think he would be a good depth signing but we will see if they go after him or not. The Twins have some interesting young arms they could use in the pen in Moran, Henriquez, and Sands and Winder unless they choose to keep him on the starter track. Still not a ton of depth IMO and there isn't much behind them unless they are converting starters to relievers. Pen arms have a tendency to get hurt early in the season so I think a good depth signing is warranted but we will see what the front office thinks once those roster spots open up.

Yeah I plan to hold Law to that projection. He never really liked Lewis especially at short so it is not too surprising. He did mention in his article that it is skewed toward younger players with lots of projection remaining. Lewis is at AAA and is who he is so not much projection left. He also has so little playing time it is hard to say just what he is at this point so I guess I can see the hesitancy based on that metric. Still it has to be hard to ignore Lewis's monster AAA debut and an equally impressive MLB debut. Granted both were SSS but I think Law has highly under estimated Lewis all along. I would love to throw this one back in his face but first I need Royce to make an All Star game. Top 100 lists are not the be all end all. They don't account for Luis Arraez types and lot's of other guys who didn't appear to have top end tools only to end up better than players projected to be better than they were. It is nice to have players in there and it is a fun read but that is about it for me.

I think as this article points out they really rounded out the roster. I still wouldn't mind them grabbing a righty first baseman\DH and it would have been nice to have lucked into a power right handed corner outfield bat. Still I really like what they did and hope that they find better consistency in the pen. starting pitching and hitting this year. I am excited to see how this all works out especially since the central was pretty quiet when it comes to acquisitions this year. This looks like a solid team on paper which should be in the hunt for the division if not wild card this year.

FWIW I did read something the other day that Lewis did prefer playing on the dirt so if he isn't comfortable out there )especially after the crash into the wall) in the outfield then maybe the Twins will keep him on the dirt. It is all speculation at this point and there are lots of ways to work him into the infield as well. If he isn't going to be a real option in the outfield though the Twins are going to need another right handed bat out there at some point.

Lewis isn't back until maybe the deadline. He isn't really viable until next year IMO. Gallo is in a one year deal. If stinks again they won't resign him. If he is really good they will get outbid for him. Kepler might be a good defender but his bat is pretty bad. There is a solid chance he isn't even on the team in a few months. They need a right handed bat in the outfield and there really isn't one coming up anytime soon. I think it will be Lewis in the end.

I don't know why you want to put Lewis in Left as that is a position reserved for slower footed outfielders with average arms and a power hitting profile. It makes more sense to put him in right. I mean they are talking about putting Farmer in left and they had even thrown Arraez out there. It is where teams generally throw their weakest outfield defenders. As far as third they just had the slow footed Urshela playing third all year last year. Even Donaldson wasn't a speedster and they had him playing third and paid him good money to do so. Both of those players were deemed good defenders without great speed at third. Left and third are both positions where teams often sacrifice some defense for offense. Unless the defense is really bad thinking Sano. Would Royce be good at third you bet. You will get no argument from me there. Lewis just happens to be one of the few players that can be a likely above average defender in the outfield as well as the infield. With a heavy lefty lineup put him in spots to replace a lefty bat. There are lot's of lefty bats in the outfield right now. We'll see maybe the Twins will love him at third and play him there all the time I just think he is more versatile than that is all. If he didn't make it at short lot's of pundits\scouts profiled Lewis to play center but with Buxton there he wouldn't be able to play there all the time. So right seems like a decent spot as well IMO.

Sure range is nice to have at every position but is often sacrificed for offense. My thinking with Lewis would be this. Am I getting more from his offense\defense replacing Miranda at third or more replacing Larnach or Wallner or Kepler in the outfield who don't hit lefties all that well and Wallner\Larnach who don't run all that with Lewis? I think Lewis would have a greater offensive and defensive value in the outfield. I don't know about you but a lot the balls hit to third are hard hit smashes which doesn't require much range. There are always a few dribblers where it nice to have a guy that can move get to them where range would help considerably but in general there is a reason why a lot of teams are fine putting a slower footed slugger at third if they can provide the needed offense. I don't really have a strong preference for where they play Lewis (although with all the lefty outfielders he works well there) but to me it would make sense to put him where he can help the team most. Take out the weakest link and insert Lewis.

Unless the Twins feel payroll would be an issue as it stands they have the 40 man room to keep Kepler. When they put Canterino, Paddack, and Lewis on the IL they will have three 40 man spots open up so they can get a 1st baseman and a couple of relievers if they want to. I don't think they should just give Kepler away as they are an injury or two away from needing him and they had lots of injuries last year. I think they would likely gain better leverage if another team has injuries and needs Max and is willing to overpay to get a deal done. Things could change or open up once teams IL spots open up so I wouldn't say Max is safe just yet. But I like that the Twins are wiling to be patient and see alternate scenario's for Kepler.

Sure I think he is fine in left as well but if you want to maximize all of Lewis skills to the max then Short, center and Right take advantage of his plus speed, plus arm, and defense. You start to minimize those skills when you put him in left as that position doesn't require the arm that right does, at third doesn't utilize his speed or second doesn't utilize his arm. Not saying he has to be utilized to the max but those are the places I would play him first. He literally is talented enough to play any position but catcher, but I think you would want to maximize his talent when you can unless of course you have a better option somewhere or you want him to sub for a position where his defense makes a larger difference. It probably would make sense to give him a primary position but I think we are always going to need Buxton insurance so he likely will need to play some centerfield. He can sub for Correa as well. If his bat is as good as I think it is going to be he is someone they are going to want in lineup no matter what. He just happens to be talented enough to play wherever they need him defensively.

I would put in him right field and use him in center to cover for Buxton.

For sure I just think they will use him in the outfield as a right handed bat there. He could move back if Correa needs to move off. Hopefully they will have someone else ready by then though.

I think Lee can play short at least early on. He just projects as an average or slightly below average defender there even now so likely not a long term home there. Salas is big, If he gets much bigger he is going to be Miranda size. I haven't seen him play much so hard to say if can stick but I tend to agree with scouts that his body projection is going to move him off there at some point. Martin does not have the arm for short and makes way too many errors there. So Yeah I don't see it. Luckily we have Correa the next four years and some really interesting Shortstops at the lower levels in Miller, Ross, Pena, Ortiz and maybe Daniel as well as one of their top international picks in Chivilli. So hopefully some guys who can stick at short down the road.

All he needs to do is hit and that air might over inflate him.

Yeah we pretty much dead on agree. We seem to have a different understanding of the OP "sustainability" it looks like. I don't think we can trade top prospect for pitchers every year long term (i.e. not sustainable). Need that farm to give us some pitching. I think once greater balance is established they can trade more often than not from strength to get the deals they need. I am never opposed to trading from surplus to fill a hole but we have a fair number of assets tied up in starting pitching right now and it would be nice to see that slow down. I like this FO and we all mercilessly berate them for any move that doesn't work out (myself included at times). Not all moves work out for any team. They set this team up to have a chance. Hopefully they perform well. Thanks for the exchange of ideas.

I guess it depends on your view of this team. Are you projecting them out to be winners (in the playoff hunt) every year or win one year lose the next? Because they made those trades in losing years. So to maintain that kind of balance you would have to contemplate them losing almost as much as winning IMO. Most teams in contention for the playoffs wouldn't be trading a Jose Berrios at the deadline for prospects. My line of thinking is that with these moves for pitching that they are planning on winning and that this would be a long term winning strategy and if that is the case I don't see much in prospects coming back. By employing their current trade for a starter strategy and sustaining it they would be doing the opposite of an Oakland, Tampa, Cleveland who generally sell the last few years of vets for prospects. They wouldn't be bringing prospects back but continuously trading them at least if they are winning. I think what they are doing is fine short term but as the OP said I don't think it is sustainable if building a winning team year in and year out.