Dman

I agree that Kiersey needs to move up to AAA to see if he can handle the pitching there but Stevenson is having an equally good year at center for St Paul. The stats for Kiersey and Stevenson are almost identical and they are very similar players with Stevenson being slightly faster and Kiersey with slightly more power. There are just too many Outfielders at AAA right now so I think Kiersey gets left at AA this year. I think they can find room for Rosario to move up to AA but they might wait a bit to do that as well. The Trade deadline is likely when more space will be made.

That is a very interesting take and not all that far off. It just seems like these franchises are cursed right now. I can't say I loved the Gobert trade but I didn't see him making the Wolves worse. I really believed in this Twins team. It looked the best starting rotation in a long long time and the Offense seemed capable of doing damage at almost every position. The bullpen looked shaky but workable. They just lost a series to the 4th place team in our division and now will lose the series to the last place team in the East. This isn't a playoff team. It is a team in need of more talent than they currently have. Honestly it looks like another lost season to me.

I know it can work but power over hit seems like a waste that high in the draft. So many of those guys are K machines and end up at 1st base or DH. I think the better approach is what the Twins did with Spencer Steer. He had a good eye at the plate, good contact skills and they helped him develop more power as he moved through the system. Kind of the same story for Lamonte Wade who they got in the 9th round. You have to be able to hit the ball consistently to make a difference so start with that tool and try and build out from there. I am not opposed to taking power over hit later in the draft just not early. Matthews is interesting but after the Rooker, Leech and Cavaco helium picks I have soured on those types of risk. I would prefer to take a player that has fallen than a helium pick. If a guy like that is available later like Holland was that is a better place to take that kind of risk IMO. I was all in on trying to get Tanner Witt with the sandwich pick in the 1st round earlier in the year but with Prielipp having so many issues after TJ I just don't feel confident taking taking Witt with even the 2nd round selection. If\when Witt comes back I think he might be a difference making arm but Prielipp makes me feel a bit snake bit there. I would say I am on the fence with that pick at that spot right now. I know there is no "safe" pick in the draft as lot's of valued players are not going to turn out and just because you had a bad experience with a certain type of player doesn't mean the next will turn out the same way. Still my philosophy is to build on bat first players with a good eye at the plate. You can work on defense. You can work on Power. If you can't hit the round ball very often odds are you never make it. Start with the tool that matters most and if they have other tools in their pocket all the better but power would not be my focus in the early rounds. Contact would be. If they have both all the better give me as many tools as possible with the early picks as long as the hit tool is a strength. Taking pitchers early is a gamble but this seems like a year they could do that if they wanted to. They have a core group of young hitters about to hit the majors at AAA and have some pretty good potential coming up from High A. The system is lacking in elite pitching potential. They also have quite a group of good hitters in the FCL that will likely need room at A ball next year so again there is more room for pitching at the lower levels than hitting IMO. I know the Twins value a balanced draft as they seem to go 5 pitchers and 5 hitters in the top 10 and pretty much the same 11-20. Not saying they have to ignore hitters all together but they need to build up pitching at the lower levels so they should take more pitching this year. Whether that is higher or lower in the draft doesn't matter too much to me as it seems they have done better lower in the draft than higher in recent years but taking a shot at top end guy early wouldn't hurt either.

I think it was Law that pointed out that Lee might not be a big HR hitter based on his swing and that seems to be holding true so far. So far at AA Lee is very balanced at the plate though with very good walk and K rates. I don't know that I see All Star player there yet but he is very good and this being his first full pro year has plenty of time to get even better. When looking at Lee compared to the College hitters taken before and after him the only player performing better at his level or higher is Neto IIRC. So he is doing really well for being pushed to AA early. Schobel is interesting. Before going cold again last week he was looking like a steal in the second round as he was playing as well as several of the picks ahead him even into the first round. IMO he is looking like a better hitter than Gavin Cross the player the Twins were linked to in the first round before Lee became available. Schobel isn't striking out as much as Cross and has a higher batting average and OPS. Granted Cross is one the league leaders in HR's but with a tick more power I think I like Schobel better and they got him late in the second round. I was wondering how Ben Ross was going to do coming from a smaller school and I still think he is going to be a steal at number 5. He is one HR behind Rosario and currently there are only 5 players with double digit HR's and Ross is one of them. I assume he is on the Twins swings hard at everything approach and wonder if he might end up a bit like Spencer Steer only hopefully with better defense. His batting average is low right now as is his BABIP. He is aggressive at the plate but he needs more hits and despite the 10 HR's it would be nice to see a higher Slugging percentage but for his first pro year at High A there is a lot to dream on right now. A ways to go but he sure looks like a good get at number 5 especially considering his HR power matches guys that were taken in the first round. Ortega should be at High A but with the glut of infielders there has stayed at Low A. He is top 4 in OPS in that league and likely a tick old for that level as well. The little I have watched him he seems to hit everything hard. A very balanced approach with HR and especially Doubles power. I think he is going to surprise some people as he moves up but we will see. Cossetti looks like he could make the Twins top 30 as a catching prospect. He has a really strong approach with K rate and Walk rate almost identical when he was in A ball and his .320 BA and 1.069 OPS got him moved up to high A where his numbers have fallen some as he adjusts to better pitching. He has good HR power so he looks like a really good offensive catcher at this point. Whether he has the defense to match it I do not know but he might be the most exciting catching prospect in the system just because the offensive skills are so well rounded. Corey Lewis could be another amazing find as a 9th round pick. The pitch mix plus that change of pace Knuckle ball makes me think he has a chance to be special. Still a long ways to go but if can get to AA this year that would put him closer to MLB ready. So far it looks like promising Class but there is along way to go and even some of the guys that look good right now can and will flame out. Some of the over looked players will be surprises. Still this looks like a strong class to me and I hope they all make it.

Stevenson had a slow start to the year but he is making me a believer. He and Keirsey seem like very similar players. Stevenson's one chance in the Majors didn't go all that well but he sure looks too good for AAA. I was wondering the other day if he was going to be the backup center fielder if the Twins didn't sign MAT. Probably would hit about the same maybe a little worse and without MAT's HR's but still a solid backup\4th outfielder. At any rate he is buried right now especially with Celestino on his way back but he is having a very nice season at AAA this year. I wonder if another team will be interested in trying to grab him around the deadline.

Yeah can't get all that much from the stats in the DSL or FCL because the age range and competition varies so much. I think the main takeaways are if someone is hitting well in those leagues that is a good thing if they are not it is a bad thing. The competition doesn't seem to even out until A ball, but really all leagues have variable talent levels based on trades. player development or lack of player development, injury, coming back from injury, etc. The numbers only mean so much and while they do help identify talent they can't really predict who can successfully make the jump to MLB. You can see how difficult the jump is when you look at the FCL league MVP Olivar who had a 1.000 OPS last year and this year at A ball a more muted .800 OPS. Other players like Cespedes, Cruz, Martinez and Baez to name a few more haven't even managed to hit the .700 OPS mark and they all hit well in the DSL. So yeah you are correct the DSL numbers generally don't mean too much but you have to do well there to move to the next level. Hopefully you find the next Arraez, Tates or Soto in the bucket of players you find there.

After it was mentioned in an article I have to say I have been giving that notion more thought. Williams has to keep this up and stay consistent but if he is going to be a 1.000 OPS hitter that is pretty elite company as there are only 8 players in the international league that are at that level and CES is one of them. Williams has been streaky before so I don't "trust" the current numbers but if he is at this level in August he might be an elite bat. Will have to wait and see but would be nice to have a power hitting 1st baseman on the team. It seems like it has been a while since we had someone like that.

Good to know. Thanks!

Lee had a nice night going 3 for 5 but he single handedly handed the team the loss with 2 errors in the 9th inning. I don't know how tough those plays were to make but it is pretty hard to overcome 2 errors and not let a run score so he has some work to do defensively IMO. Ohl pitched well through 6 but couldn't get through 7 and got charged some extra runs. He throws strikes and can be pretty efficient once batters realize they have to swing but he is still allowing too many hits and too many runs. He is going to need to keep them guessing better to be successful. I still really like his aggressive approach and his stuff even if the fastball isn't all that fast. Also happy to see McCleod with a good outing. I was a big believer in the lefty and I hope he is back on track as we need good arms to round out the system. Chris Williams continues to impress. He has the hottest bat on the team right now. Hard to believe the offense got held down but hopefully they get things going tomorrow. Would be nice to see more hits from the various affiliates but somedays things click somedays they don't.

Yeah I was more impressed with Rosario taking 3 walks than him hitting the home run. It means he isn't pressing (being too aggressive) and that he has a good eye at the plate (not guess swinging). IMO It shows maturity and that he is ready for the next level. Guessing the Twins will wait until the half season to move him so that he can maintain his All Star status at High A. FWIW for those that qualify Rosario is 4th in OPS for the MIdwest League. The first two players are 24 years old and have been promoted to AA ( they still have enough at bats to qualify though). The other player ahead of him is only .09 points ahead and is 22 years old. Oh and Rosario also leads the league in HR's ahead of guys like Gavin Cross and Jace Young who are older and were top 10 draft picks last year. Also he is only 20 years old. He is at the top of his league after almost three months of numbers, he really has nothing left to prove there. They have to just be letting him qualify for All Star honors as there is no logical reason he cannot move up with the dominance he has shown so far.

Agreed that he can give up a big inning. Not sure what happens he can be pitching so well and then one bad inning he can't get out of.

Man the Saints are a lot of fun to watch. Always seems to be a lot offensive action. If the pitching was a bit better that team would be a juggernaut. Williams has his confidence back and seems to think he can put everything over the fence right now. He isn't just taking wild swings either as he walked after starting 1-2 in the count so he has patience and a good eye at the plate. I know he will have to show this batting mastery for a longer amount of time and just 1st baseman types are not easily added to the 40 man but he is looking good right now with the best OPS on the team that don't have small sample sizes. Really nice job by Rozek for the Surge. I tend to underestimate him but he generally keeps the score close and pitches well. I still see him as a pen arm but he keeps doing well as a starter. Was great to see Lee with a couple of nice hits. His over all number look really strong with a good walk rate excellent K rate in the teens and BABIP is a normalized. 320 but the slugging is going to have to be better to get from good to great. He still looks rock solid but needs a bit more time to tap into more power. Lewis was outstanding again. It feels like he could pitch at AA easy right now. If he keeps this up maybe he gets promoted to AA in mid July. Would be nice to have another diamond in the rough find. Cossetti's bat is finally starting to pick up at High A. Hopeing he gets back to his .900 OPS ways and finds his way to AA later in the year. He looks like he might be a find as well. Fun night on the farm with 3 solid wins. Hoping they keep it going.

Yeah reading fangraphs Twins are banking on a rebound for the change of pace submariner who gets a lot of ground balls. If he works out at least they can use him as an up and down guy as he will have three option years left. It looks like the Twins assigned him to AA so I guess we will see if he has better luck this year at that level because last year he was horrible. Could be a diamond in the rough find if you are looking at the positive side. Could be nothing as well but Megill wasn't going to make it back on the 40 man and his control issues really bothered me. He is doing OK so far for Milwaukee but still giving up his fair share of walks. I think the Twins will be better off with this deal hard to say though I guess time will tell.

Sounds like Taylor Floyd completes the Megill player to named later trade.

There is a ways to go yet but I think you are going to be wrong about Camargo not being protected. I get that he has an ugly K rate and low walk rate and a very aggressive approach but if I am reading the numbers right he had a .900 OPS in May and has started June off with a 1.157 OPS which includes an .800 slugging percentage. If it weren't for his horrid April where his OPS was an incredibly low .374 I think he would be getting much more attention. Some guys struggle in the Midwest cold but if this last couple of months is who he is I am pretty sure he will be added. Jeffers never put up anything close to those numbers and he is playing in MLB. Granted he has to keep it going but his numbers are getting hard to ignore.

Yeah Williams with another two HR's and he took a walk after being down 1-2 in the count. I think he took Wallner's Mojo from him. After the last two games 5 home run barrage his OPS is at .998. HIs K rate and BABIP are high so he is going to come down but man he looks elite at the plate right now. Still you need to get that OPS close to or in the 1.000 range to get a shot and he is doing that. Just needs to keep it there and if the Twins don't add him someone will. Camargo with a HR and Double as well. When guys are hot they are hot. Still the competition is so variable at the various levels it can be hard to determine what the numbers mean as sometimes hits come off good but not elite players which is why minor league numbers get inflated so much. Once you hit MLB everyone is elite so the numbers drop. Still getting hits moves you up and you can only face who you face. So much fun to watch that St. Paul offense work.

Most wouldn't but you have some really bad teams in the A's, KC and Maybe Washington that aren't really competing next year. Why not grab a top 100 player who has a good eye at the plate and walks about 20% of the time. Hits the ball hard when he hits it. He K's a ton at least right now and he might be a black hole offensively that year but you picked up a top 100 player for nothing and those generally are not easy to find. I am trying to remember if teams have left top 100 player unprotected before. He is not ready for Major League Baseball IMO but he could have star potential so not sure what might happen there. They added Celestino when he was pretty young as well I just think they might be forced to add him. I think Celestino was added when he was 19? Can correct me if I am wrong. Link

Yeah Martin, Enlow and Camargo are sure bets to be added IMO unless something changes performance wise later on. We lost Stuart Turner in Rule V to the Reds and he never could hit and with Camargo's power and bar for hitting catchers so low if they don't protect him I bet the A's or KC would love to grab him in Rule V. Severino has his warts as a hitter with a high K rate, High BABIP and low walk rate but if he keeps performing this well as a 23 year old they are going to have to think hard about adding him or trading him. As pointed out above Keirsey is older and only at AA but he is hitting .300 and playing very good defense. Will that translate to the majors hard to say but since it is such a scarce position the bar for hitting is lower than most positions and while he is no Keirmieir he could be a nice pickup for a rebuilding team. If he catches fire he could be a trade asset for another team if not protected if he doesn't they can send him back to the Twins. I just think if he keeps this up he has figured some things out and could make it. He is hitting better than Lee on that team right now and not far off of Severino's OPS with better supporting numbers like only a 20% K rate. He is making contact and that bodes well for sustaining his numbers. Walk rate could use some help yet but he is getting there. Maybe he is too old to add but if he keeps this up I think he makes it to MLB whether he can hit enough to stay there is hard to say. Hitting MLB pitching is really, really, hard. He certainly can't be much worse than some backup center fielders out there. Unfortunately he is probably too old and too unknown to be a trade candidate so they might not protect him the end. Roster is pretty tight as it is. I just think a case can be made. If Emmanuel Rodriguez is still a top 100 prospect they likely will have to make room for him as well.

First of all I think Miranda is in AAA until the FO is satisfied that his approach is sound again. There were always questions about whether 3rd would be his ultimate home it seems unlikely he will ever be elite defensively there the idea was to just be adequate and let the bat play. I like Lewis at third but he is literally a Swiss army knife super utility player that can play good to excellent defense pretty much everywhere except catcher. He doesn't have to be entrenched at 3rd if Miranda can hold his own there they can move Lewis anywhere. Lee doesn't look close to ready to me. He still lacks power and while he is solid as a hitter he hasn't looked elite to me. At least not yet. I think he needs more time. I agree Miranda doesn't look great at 1st and DH looks better if he can't make it at third but with Buxton there and maybe needing at bats for Jullien that is a hard spot to crack open. In Summary I think there is still room for him at third until Lee, Severino, maybe Hellman arrive as then things get crowded again. The Twins have some really good hitters at AA and AAA Miranda needs to establish himself soon or he will be passed by.

Have to say I wasn't a real Keirsey Jr. believer. His 2019 .406 OPS in A ball was very unimpressive and the .199 batting average in 2021 at High A didn't inspire confidence either. 2022 looked better but still only a .724 OPS at AA and that won't get you to MLB. This year isn't over but he has a .311 BA and .840 OPS and plays elite defense in center field. Celestino better step it up as there is competition for the center field spot with Keirsey's new found bat to ball skills and added power. I thought it was going to be Emmanual Rodriguez I would be talking about at High A but Rosario looks like the more well rounded hitter at this point, as Rodriguez is looking more like the hitter he was in FCL with contact issues. Rosario is putting on a hitting clinic for a 20 year old at A+. His K rate is below 30% he is close to batting .300 (.290) and his slugging is at a career high right now. I am sure they will wait until he turns 21 in July but they should move him to AA and see what he can do against slightly better pitching. Chris Williams was hot last year at AA with a .915 OPS before moving up to AAA where it dropped to .716. He started off a bit slow this year but has been on tear for a while now capped with that 3 HR game his AAA OPS sits at .940. The BABIP and K rate are a little high right now but just given his track record he looks like an MLB bat to me. He seems likely to regress some so will be interesting to see if he can keep this up further into the season but if he does he looks like a pretty good bat to me. It is gonna be interesting come Rule V time with Keirsey, Severino, Rodriguez, Martin, Camargo, Enlow, Grace, Funderburk and now maybe even Williams that they will need to make decisions on. Not gonna be room for everybody.

I think as noted pretty early on there were always going to be some good bats into the second round. I wouldn't be surprised if the first three picks were bats for the Twins as I think there will be good value there. I think the run on pitchers starts mid to late 2nd round IMO. Granted teams that want their pitcher can grab them earlier than that if they want but I think the elite to very good bat first position players will go first for the most part. It is going to be interesting to see who the Twins get at number 5 and what is left when they get to 34 and 49. There likely will be some good pitchers left on the board at 49 so that will be an interesting pick as they won't pick again until 82. Lot's of pitchers will be off the board by pick 82. Still there could be a really good bat at 49 so it could be a tough call especially since they seem to do well with pitchers in later rounds. It is gonna be a fun draft. Can't wait.

I probably miss Petty the most but as pointed out the Twins got two very good years out of Gray and if he signs elswhere they get a pick in almost the same area they picked Petty not that that pick is guaranteed to work out but the gamble appears to have worked out. Still a 20 year old with a ,.45 ERA and .9o WHIP at High A this year is a good get for the Reds who were in rebuild mode. Granted SSS of 20 innings but he has electric stuff. CES would be next. I know he is likely just a DH but I fell in love with the bat. That being said I was onboard with all the trade for the present moves. Sometimes they work out well sometimes they don't.

Congrats to Enlow on a well deserved call up to AAA. He has come a long way since the TJ surgery and battled his way back. Hoping he just keeps on pitching well for the Saints and looks like option for the MLB rotation. So many good hitting performances that it is hard to name them all but I was happy to see Rosario have a big game after a bit of a mini slump. Also Rodriguez almost got his batting average back to .200 after brutal start to the year. It would be nice to see more contact and fewer strikeouts but adjusting to this level is no easy task just ask Miller, Salas and Urbina. I know Camargo is hot and had another two hit night but I still really like Wallner's numbers at AAA this year. Yeah the K rate is bit high but everything else looks really good. He definitely does deserve a longer look at the MLB level but he can still work on that K rate at AAA>

Jose Rodriguez is off to a good start in the FCL. .381 BA and .893 OPS. The rest of the young guys that did really well in the DSL last year seem to be struggling at least to start. It is always a tough transition from DSL to FCL as the pitching is much. much better. If Rodriguez can keep that line up all year there might be some star power there. I have been looking for Hendry Chivilli but haven't seen his name since the first game. I assume he is hurt? He started 2 for 4 so was hoping to see more. Schobel still looking good at High A and he took a couple of walks which was nice to see. I think he going to be the full package at the plate. Just needs more experience. Hopefully he moves to AA by July so they can see what he can do against better pitching. Rosario in a mini slump after being hot for so long. Will have to see if he gets his mojo back. Lot's of guys struggling at the plate. Hopefully the second will be better for some players.

If the money is right I am all for it. Can't have enough pitching in the system. If they want to move on I would be fine with that as well. TJ recovery really takes a long time for pitchers and no guarantee he comes back the same player. I like how he pitches and agree it fits the Twins philosophy but the money would have to be low as the risk is high.