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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Nice to see Morris holding his own at AA. That is not an easy thing to do. SSS, but his numbers look the same as at high A to this point. Still feels like Eeles could be something special. I can't remember the Twins signing a free agent hitter with this much potential ever before. He has the speed to steal bases (11). He hits for average .341. He has been hitting for power SLG .537 and he walks about about as much as he strikes out giving him a .453 OBP. The guy is on base every other plate appearance. I get that he is old for this level and his BABIP is high at .400 but when your BA is .341 your BABIP is going to be higher. I'm just saying he appears to have every skill you would want in a hitter so I don't get why he wasn't drafted (I guess age)? At any rate he is playing better than some first round picks. They should move him up so he can be an actual prospect. They should try to get him to AA at the end of this year where his age would be closer to his level. He has a chance to be a top 30 prospect IMO.
  2. Dman
    I was thinking Kirilloff as he just wildly swings at stuff, but I forgot Julien has an extra option year and could use a reset just as much. I think it is the right move. I think he just needs to get his confidence back and he'll be a new man.
  3. Dman
    He at least had a walk that is something positive. Looks like as many predicted he will get sent down. He has the most options left and Castro or Farmer can slide into that spot. Hopefully Castro as his bat has been better. Julien will be back and I think a AAA reset should do him a lot of good.
  4. Dman
    Happy to see SWR get through 4 innings at least and not let the game get out of hand. Okert came up big in a tough situation and Miranda saved the day with that double to give them the lead. All the guys on the bubble did something positive today. Going to be very interesting to see who gets sent down. Feels like Miranda and Larnach are safe to me. A much needed win with the hot Yankee's next on the schedule and a much needed loss by Cleveland to get us back to 6 games back.
  5. Dman
    Good point. As best I can tell Jeffers had an .831 OPS in May. That seems better than most of the group listed. Granted his .214 BA was low, but when you are slugging .536 it doesn't matter that much. I think he must have been overlooked somehow to not make the list.
  6. Dman
    Santos was dealing. When he needed a pitch he went to what MiLB said was his cutter and he also got a couple of K's on the curve. A 30% K rate should get you moved up. They will probably wait until the second season starts in a couple of weeks, but he has good enough pitches to move up. So far he has come out of the pen but if ha has three pitches I wonder if they start him at some point. The new Guy Castro pitched pretty darn well too for his first time out. 4K's no hits no walks. Both pitchers are slightly old for the level so hopefully they move up soon. My man Poncho pumping that OPS up to .900. Quite the find for a free agent after the draft.
  7. Dman
    I never thought Castro could have a .775 OPS. Granted the year isn't over but it seems like he is getting better with the bat as time goes on. Love his flexibility I wonder if the Twins could find a way to extend him? We really don't have a guy that can do all the things Willie can do.
  8. Dman
    I know Jenkins doesn't qualify as he has only played the last couple of weeks, but still nice to see that 1.028 OPS in the FCL. Gotta believe they move him up soon. While Mercedes has more tools and the better OPS I think Damuery Pena has the more well rounded bat. His 11 walks to just 3 K's speaks to his bat to ball skills and plate discipline. He also is working on his power as he has 2 HR's already and a .500 SLG%. That's some pretty elite stuff. I wouldn't mind them moving him to A ball if they move Eeles up to high A. Lot's of good bats this last month. Hope they keep it up.
  9. Dman
    I'd say I am pretty disappointed with how his season has started, but a couple of things to remember. He is only 21 in a league where the average age is about 24 I believe. So for him just to hold his own there would be an accomplishment. If you have ever watched him pitch and the movement he gets on his pitches I don't think you would give up on him. The Twins moved him aggressively, I believe because he was one of the few arms they had at the time that was ready for that level. He has been dominant at times and struggled at times. He has mainly struggled to start this year, but there is a lot of time left to turn things around and with his innings limit he should be able to pitch all year. He obviously has things to work on with pitch mix, pitch location and maybe even pitch refinement to get better. We are going to need to give him more time to get there. Its OK to be disappointed. I know I am as I really felt he might break out to some degree this year, but even if he doesn't he has three years yet to figure things out to be at the average age for his level. Its way too early to give up on him.
  10. Dman
    That is why they need a challenge system in place. It stops the Umps emotional side from taking over as he would only be embarrassed to have so many calls overturned. Hate it when umpires take over games as players work hard to succeed and they can take some of that away when their ego gets in the way. Interestingly in the Cedar Rapids game both teams lost their 3 challenges by the 6th inning with the umpire winning 6 of the 7 challenges. Umps can be good too.
  11. Dman
    IMO it could be Julien or Kirilloff. Seeing as there is a lot of coverage for second base and less in the outfield Julien feels like the odd man out. If they want to split time with Santana and Miranda at 1st base then maybe they send down Kirilloff? I guess it just depends on how they want to strengthen the team. I think who ever gets sent down it might be a blessing to get everyday work in a less pressure filled environment. Gain some confidence and be ready for the next injury or moves at the trade deadline.
  12. Dman
    Nice to see Okert and Sands come through with drama free innings and cap off the win. Giving the main guys a rest was much needed. For as much I don't feel like Okert is very dominant his ERA is 2.86 (although FIP &xFIP see it a run higher). HIs K rate is ok and even though he walks too many guys he has brought his WHIP down to 1.26. For what ever reason I always feel like I am squirming when he is pitching, but that is a pretty decent line for a Lefty. Hope he looks even better as the year goes on.
  13. Dman
    How do you feel the board stacks up for that Comp A pick? There should be some good arms left at that spot. For the First round would you do Bat/Arm or Arm/Bat or would you be tempted to go Bat/Bat based on the fairly short supply of quality hitters this year and hope one of those arms you like falls to round 2.
  14. Dman
    I don't know if you have watched Doncon on MiLB.tv but he looks really good at 3rd base IMO. Probably a plus defender there. I think he looks OK at short right now as well, but he is a big guy and I think as he fills out he will likely have to move off of short. I don't think they have had him play in the outfield but I think he would be a great left fielder as well. He has the arm and he runs well. High A will be a big test with the bat since he is younger. If the bat holds up he should be a very versatile player that could be a plus defender in a couple of spots.
  15. Dman
    I am wondering what the Twins draft strategy might be for this upcoming draft. They have an extra 1st and 2nd round pick this year so they could go bat, arm, bat, arm and keep things even or they could go bat, bat, arm, arm or perhaps bat, bat, bat, arm? I recently looked at where guys on the Twins MLB team were drafted and it seems like if you want legit bats you need to draft them in the 1st or 2nd round. Let me first say that I am someone who always wanted the Twins to take pitching in the first round. My question is should the Twins take bats with their first two picks and also use one of their two second round picks on a hitter? Hear me out. When you look at the bats who have made it out of the Twins system to MLB. They are all primarily first or second round picks. 1st round picks are Buxton, Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, and Martin. 2nd round picks are Jeffers, Miranda, and the rest are international free agents like Kepler, Castro, Santana, Margot, Rodriguez and Camargo. Jullien was taken late but interestingly he was supposed to be a late 1st round to second round pick but had a poor season and dropped. Vasquez and Farmer were later picks but are in more support roles than starting roles. My point is that for bats if you go out of the second round the chances of them making it to MLB and making a difference appears to be minute. Now look at the Twins rotation and there isn’t a single arm taken in the first round. Ryan (7), Paddack (8), Ober (12), Varland (15) and Pablo was an International Free agent that worked out. If Festa (13) makes it he would be another late round pick to make the rotation. Only SWR who was taken in the second round but given first round money I believe can make a case for being selected early. Even if you look at the top 30 prospect list, the bats are mostly taken in the first or second rounds. Jenkins, Lee, Schobel, Keaschall, Martin, (could make the case for Winokur who got first round money but taken in the 3rd) with mainly international free agents like Rodriguez, Gonzalez, De Andrade, Mercedes, Olivar and Rodriguez in the top 20 to 25. There are a few exceptions in Rosario, Cossetti, Cardenas and Ross, but none of them are top 10 system guys. So, for as much grief as I give the Twins it would seem to make the most sense to grab bats as much as possible in the first few rounds and go pitching the rest of the way as the odds seem to be in your favor with that strategy. I’m not saying you can never go pitcher in the first round or that it would never makes sense. I really liked the 2021 draft where they grabbed Petty number one and went pitchers in the 2nd , 3rd and 5th round. Other teams liked those picks too as we traded away the top 5 picks in that draft. Still it looks like they will get no hitting out of that draft either unless Cardenas can make it. OK so that’s my rant. If you don’t grab bats early the odds are extremely thin that they make it, but you can find arms in the later rounds. So, should the Twins focus on just bats early this year? Or are the bats just not good enough deeper into the draft for that to make sense?
  16. Dman
    I kind of hate pitchers with control problems. Just not reliable in critical situations. Still I can see going for it if they drop to right spot. I am pretty high on Nori, but I am a sucker for the hit\speed profile. I get that power\hit is hard to find and the most coveted, but guys that can play up the middle defense and get on base are pretty important too IMO. I think if his hit tool is solid he will be taken in the first round but hard to say given the competition in the top 30.
  17. Dman
    Cedar Rapids is the only affiliate with a chance at making the playoffs. With Keaschall now at AA would really be nice if they sent Eeles from Fort Myers to Cedar Rapids. I think he could provide a similar spark to the lineup. I would also have them send Poncho Ruiz. He is top 3 in the Florida State League in OPS and Batting average. They have good starting pitching but could use some lineup help and I think they could be a playoff contender again. Those two players could get them, there. Speaking of Poncho Ruiz and I know this is a small sample size, but how did they not draft him in their top 20 picks last year? I believe he was known as a really good defensive catcher with maybe not much of a bat, but as of right now he is one of the top hitters in his league. I hear they picked him up right after the draft and he came in with the rest of the draftee's which was a great pickup, but if he was identified as a draft worthy player why not draft him instead of some of those longshot players they draft at 19 and 20? At any rate he could be the catcher the Twins have been looking for if he can keep hitting all the way up. In the end great get by the Twins.
  18. Dman
    I think it is likely prudent to give Paddack a break. He was going to need a few just coming back from TJ. I wouldn't mind giving Festa a shot, but what would his innings limit for this year be? If added to the 40 man is he going to be available the whole season? That being said he will need to added to the 40 at the end of the season to avoid being selected in Rule V draft so maybe just bite the bullet and make room early. They still might give Varland one more try, but he hasn't seemed to fix the homer problem he seems to have. Hard to say what they will do, but it would be nice to see what Festa can do at the MLB level.
  19. Dman
    I was thinking an arm break as well. I think he has 5 innings or more every time out and not sure what they feel his innings limit will be, but maybe best to skip a start to keep him on track to pitch the whole season within the innings limit they have for him.
  20. Dman
    Man Eeles has been swinging like a 1st round draft pick. I'm sure they love him at A ball but he could be a good guy to replace Keaschal at High A and being that he is older wouldn't hurt to move him tad faster than most guys. HIs approach looks sound and he seems to make solid contact with 6 double, 2 triples and 2 HR's in the few weeks he has been around.
  21. Dman
    It was good game for Zebby, but with his standards set so high it felt a bit like a let down as he wasn't as dominant as he has been. St. Louis has some good hitters and it showed. Still he pitched well and this is why he was moved to AA to face tougher hitters. Langenburg has been a bit up and down, but he is starting to pile up the K's. The stuff is there. Hopefully he refines it and moves up to high A at the mid way point.
  22. Dman
    It is so odd how those numbers can fluctuate in the minors. I guess guys get figured out? Williams, Prato, Wallner, most of the Saints lineup hasn't been all that great this year except for Keirsey I too was hoping for more from Prato after what seemed like a breakout last year and while the walks are great he needs to hit and with extra bases to get looked at. Helman looking more like the guy the Twins would use if needed as his HR power and position flexibility make him very appealing, but can he stay healthy?
  23. Dman
    Man I don't think I have given SWR enough credit this year. I hate to be that guy, but I kind of thought he might be due for a let down and his stuff wouldn't play. I have been waiting for failure, but he keeps producing. I couldn't have been more wrong. Another very solid outing and he has done everything I could have hoped to help right the ship in that 5th spot. I do hope he keeps it up. Some clutch hitting tonight and the pen held. Had to be interesting for Staumont and the Royals. He didn't strike anyone out but only needed 10 pitches to get out of the inning. It still seems odd to me that they gave gave up on him with an option year left. Happy to get the win and hopefully we find a way to take the series.
  24. Dman
    I do and will since it seems to be the measure used. Just like intentional walks one could say the same thing about a batter who checks his swing and gets a hit or a full swinging bunt that finds a dead zone and counts as a hit. Not really skill, but a lucky outcome. Or how about when a position player pitches and guys hit HR's. Those things skew stats too. Most walks are earned by knowing the zone and making the pitcher work. Plate discipline is considered a skill one that is generally necessary to be successful at the MLB level. To me the reason BA can't include walks is because if they counted then since they don't count as a hit they would actually lower a players batting average and if you counted them as a hit, as you mentioned above it doesn't tell a true story of the players ability to hit the ball. It would only tell us about OBP with no context about the ability to hit. They need to be kept separate to give us a better idea of how well a player can hit versus get on base. But to say walks don't count at all is disingenuous because a player that walks still counts as a run when they cross home plate. It is still a plate attempt with a positive outcome (i.e. not an out) and it should be included in K% because while a walk might not be a hit it is also not an out.
  25. Dman
    Hey like I said I calculated that way and everywhere else I looked it was plate attempts. Both Fangraphs and B-Ref do it that way. When cited by announcers it seems to be the same as the other online sites. Interestingly MLB.com doesn't calculate it for you. When you think about it though plate attempts makes more sense as they walked in that at bat they didn't make an out or strike out it was a positive result. A walk can't count as a hit for batting average, but we sure keep track of OBP which includes the walk stat. Walks are important and they should count as a positive outcome they aren't nothing in the context of strikeouts. So i think PA makes sense as it includes all outcomes not just hits and outs like BA.
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