Dman

Nice summary Doc. I agree. He hits the ball hard and that is why his BABIP is slightly higher. He has had a decent average in the past so bat to ball skills aren't horrible. Just needs to tighten up that K rate and he looks like a very valuable player to me. Even with that K rate he might be able to Gallo his way into an MLB job. I want to see him more at AAA and would not depend on him as a 1st base solution for this season at the MLB level, but his future looks bright at that position if he continues to improve. With the K rate I don't think his trade value is super high. I would give him another year and we should know where he is at mid season. Maybe he is good enough to be a young gun call up. Will have to wait and see.

Given that if the Brewers just hang onto him Burnes would get them a sup 1st round pick the price to get him is going to be high. Likely going to take a top 100 prospect. I didn't see the Brewers as seller's, but they must feel they need more difference making talent than what they have.

Yeah that is a solid approach. You look at Larnach, Gordon, and some players that didn't even make it that far and realize you can't bank on those players making the jump. It took Castro three years to have a good season and it was about replacement level. Every once in a while you get a guy like Jullien who produces from the start. I think Lewis is in there as well but even with his heroic performance it is such a SSS it still makes me question. So yeah you cannot come into a season banking on prospects. I don't think the FO will do that, but I think the 2024 team might end up weaker than the 2023 version. Still a lot of offseason to go and they have made some amazing moves in past seasons. I probably shouldn't be so negative, but moving the payroll numbers lower doesn't give me good vibes.

I agree with this and am prone to thinking\hoping prospects will make a difference, but there are so few difference making prospects that become All Stars one has to be careful of the rose colored glasses. Solid players count, but as @chpettit19 has mentioned it takes a core of special players to get the job done when going for a world series title. My rose colored glasses approach for 2025 has Lee, Rodriguez and Rosario added to the young core of Lewis, Jullien and Wallner. Lee and Rodriguez are top 100 prospects so definitely a solid chance to be star players I have Festa, Ohl and Raya as MLB ready arms with possibly Lewis, Morris and Culpepper as options as well. With a younger deeper core it seems like they could make trades or buy what they need to get over the hump for a series run To your counter point. I thought Balazovich, Winder, Henriquez and Duran were all going to be starting pitcher's after their AA and AAA results. They all are in the bull pen now and if they don't perform soon might not even be on the team in the future.. Projecting young talent especially starting pitching generally works out less often than you would like (i.e. SWR, Enlow). The list is much longer for failure than success. So I get your concerns. While the pundits say the Twins farm is weak they tend to under rate our players especially the lower draft picks. Spencer Steer wasn't even a top 100 prospect and he was in the running for rookie of the year. CES didn't really get a chance to get on the top 100 before being traded but another good bat the Twins found later in the draft. Ohl isn't even in the Twins top 30 and his numbers were close to Lewis as he came in number 2. I think the Twins will come up with more of those types of players in the future. Guys with that level of potential in the wings would be Severino, Martin, Schobel, Ross, Cardenas. I get it when you are always looking to the future you never make a move for the present. Still, I just don't see a path for this team to be much better than last years team until more young players establish themselves especially if they are dropping the limit from 150M to a likely 130M.

I believe this is my line of thinking as well. You have a good player but capable replacements in line for his position. Said player is getting older but has good trade value and you need pitching help this year. Payroll appears to be shrinking. Just like with Arraez try and better balance the roster by strengthening an area of weakness by moving an area of perceived surplus to an area that needs more help. I don't completely disagree with @chpettit19. I really get what he is saying and agree we come up short in the lineup as constructed when looking at teams in contention for a world series. I agree with him that the risk of young players is real and I have my concerns about sophomore slumps for Lewis, Jullien and especially Wallner who played most of his games against under 500 competition\lessor teams. Still I also don't think we can buy our way to where we would "need" to be without approaching the 200M level. The other issue\risk not addressed by @chpettit19 is there is also risk with older players as they get injured easier and generally take longer to heal. Even though they are good they don't always contribute the same year to year either. Honestly I don't think this team as currently constructed has much of a chance at a world series and personally I think the core needs more refinement or serious growth from the younger players to get there. Will have to see what the FO comes up with before getting too far ahead of myself, but like @chpettit19 mentioned, it is hard to see how this team gets better by subtracting good players. Call me overly optimistic but I think this team is close to being something special. I am not sure it all comes together in 2024, but I am bullish on 2025 and beyond if they don't trade the farm away.

I agree with you here. I don't think now is the time to trade away Lee or Jenkins and I don't know if Rodriguez quite gets a deal done or not but if Kepler leaves next year they need a replacement and Rodriguez is likely the guy they plug in there if not center field. Anything less than that makes me dubious about getting anything more than a 5th starter type which I think the Twins can fill in just fine via the farm or Free Agency. Remember to get Pablo we had to give the reigning AL batting champion. It takes a lot to pry away good pitching and selling the farm seems short sighted to me. I just don't think that is as easy a path as some seem to think. If the team is going to act more like Tampa and Cleveland then it seems like trading Polanco for a good return would make some sense. It could even be just to strengthen the young pitching on the farm. His value will never be higher and there are a couple of teams who could really use his bat. Still if this team is serious about another run keeping him sure is nice as well. A switch hitting veteran bat that is pretty clutch ain't easy to find. So I go back and forth but there are only so many spots and with his injury history I just don't know which way is best. I think payroll ends up around 130M tops and they need something better in center and one more starting pitcher at minimum. A veteran reliever likely needs to be in their as well. Hard to say how they work the numbers, but I think it ends up with trading away players to gain space for those acquisitions.

Those are all good points by the OP. I never had the Twins in the running for a difference making starter in Free Agency. The higher payroll teams generally win those battles and the Twins seem averse to aging arms anyway unless they come cheap. I never felt Farmer was safe and I think he could bring back equal or better value than what the Twins gave away given there is not much out there for shortstop this year. Even if they trade Farmer I think if an overpay comes to fruition they move Polanco as well. I know that might be a risky move but the Twins have options on the farm for the infield and Brooks Lee's batting line makes me think he could fill in sooner rather than later if truly needed. Also short is covered by Correa, Lewis and Castro with Lee a likely option mid season. I think it is a move they can afford to make if the trade value is worth making the move. The Twins are going to get a lot of interest in Kepler this offseason. Trading him could really hurt as he is a middle of the order bat and can play good defense. I know Wallner can technically replace him to some degree and they can use Larnack and Kirilloff for left field but that seems like a dangerous way to go depth wise and there isn't much immediate help at AAA. You could plug in Gordon and Castro at times but those bats are far less dangerous than Kepler. Still I think they will get some very strong offers and if they can get an over pay Maybe it could be worth moving him? I don't see the Twins being able to trade prospects for starting help this year as they don't need 5th starter types, they need front of the rotation and teams just don't trade guys like that away with years of control very easily. More than likely they grab a vet at the end whose value has been lost and rely on the farm arms for the 5th, 6th and 7th starter roles. At any rate if they want to strengthen other areas and reduce payroll they are going to need to make some trades. Getting major league pitching for Polanco or Kepler seems unlikely but if it can be done that is ideal. I would trade Polanco given the infield appears to be a strength now and into the future. Farmer is too expensive for what he brings to the team so I would trade him. With the extra money try and fix center field or find a good free agent pitcher for the 5th spot.

Would love to get him on a one year deal, but I think pitching needy teams might still give a good AAV on two or three year deal. Getting pitching in free agency has never really gone well for the Twins, but maybe there are too many warts for teams to bet big on him? Will have to wait and see but he is a really nice bounce back candidate. Just not sure how far the Twins would go if he doesn't do a one year deal.

I am with you. Don't write Cleveland's obituary quite yet. They had a tough season injury wise and were still a threat to the Twins into September. While they will likely trade Bieber and come out with great pieces they also have a young pitching staff that pitched well until later in the season. The bat's regressed for Cleveland last year but they will likely bring up Manzardo early next year and he has been an exceptional hitter all the way up to AAA where he finally struggled a little. DeLauter looks like a fast mover. Hard to say how quickly he will handle the higher levels but he could be an option for them as early as next year. That doesn't include what they might get for Bieber. Their pen and rotation are still top of the league. They might not do much in FA but the pieces are still there to hang tough and have a good to great season depending on the injury bug. The one thing they do lack is depth almost everywhere. Injuries could hurt them more than other teams. Still IMO if they could compete with the broken down team they had last year then they can compete with the team they will put out in 2024.

Wow I agree he had value but I didn't see the numbers Law put out as a possibility. If he truly has that much value trading him now makes some sense as the Twins won't be signing him at 20M on a QO next year or to a contract anything close to what Law predicts. The tough part is if the Twins do trade him it weakens the team a fair bit as he was our HR leader and a big bat for the team down the stretch. Put me in the believer camp that Kepler has turned a corner with the bat and his defense is always solid in right. Will be interesting to see what happens with both Kepler and Polanco in the offseason. It would be nice to see this team sell high on some guys for once, but moving on from Kepler if he is second half Kepler is going to hurt next years team.

I just can't see a scenario where a 34 year old pitcher coming off one of the best years of his career would accept a QO. If he got injured or was less effective than this year his market value could plummet and being a year older he might have to go year to year after that hard to say. That is an enormous amount of risk to take on in fact I would argue a foolish amount of risk. He literally is in the drivers seat pitching a full season and in the running for the Cy Young. If ever there was a time to strike a multi year deal this is it. He worked his ass off to get to this spot to take yet another one year chance just to remove the QO doesn't make any sense IMO.

Yeah I battle with that same scenario myself. I guess the deciding factor for me is that most teams that are bottom ten in revenue take risks by selling on vets early to get things they need or grab prospects to hopefully get good players that they can control for a longer period of time. Couple that in with Jullian being about as effective as Polanco at 2nd and with Lee on the way and saving 10M I think it tips it to trade for me.

As others have mentioned it feels like this offseason is the right time to move Polanco if the price is right. The infield seems tight and with Lee on the way as someone who could be a Polanco clone and the 40 man getting tighter. Using that 10M elsewhere sure is tempting. And yet .800 OPS bats don't grow on tree's and being a switch hitter on top of it makes him versatile and valuable. It is a tough call, but I still think they trade him this offseason. I am pretty sure teams will be asking about Kepler, but I don't know if we are set up as well in the outfield just yet. It would be nice to keep Kepler one more year and give Rodriguez and Rosario one more year to see if they will be ready in 2025. Still Kepler's value appears higher than Polanco's and if the price is right they could go with Wallner, Larnach, Gordon in the corners with Kirilloff filling in left if needed. It doesn't feel as solid without Kepler, but again if the price is right I could see them moving on. Nice to know they can still get value for both players in trade or by keeping them on the team. It just feels like it might be time to make trades to strengthen other areas.

Since no one has mentioned him I am interested in Ricardo Olivar. He was MVP of the complex league and real good year last year in A ball. A catcher who can play center field is exciting to me. If he stays at catcher he has good speed and mobility which is appealing. Also having a catcher who can play in the outfield seems like nice position flexibility as well. Danny De Andrade is also interesting. Super young for A ball and held his own there. Seems to be coming into his power and might be a plus defender. It is going to be interesting to see how well he handles High A where lot's of hitters seem to struggle.

I can't see the Twins moving on from\trading Rodriguez. I agree the K rate is concerning, but the plate discipline is also elite so this isn't about a player who is undisciplined at the plate and just swinging at everything. Maybe I have too much hope but he seems a bit like Soto to me. He swings hard at everything and generally has good results. I just don't think a guy who looks like he could be a perennial all-star is a player you want to trade. I get there is risk there. If the K rate doesn't improve and pitchers at higher levels can exploit his swing path and he can't make adjustments then maybe he ends up a good not great player. He could end up a Gallo\Kepler type player if things don't go his way, but that feels like his floor to me. Even though he was young for the level he was at the top of the Midwest league leader board at top 5 in OPS and that was after a brutal May (.572 OPS). In June his OPS was .943, July .840, August .941 and September 1.100. If not for the horrible May he might have been the league MVP over Rosario. He takes some really bad at bat's and I have been low on him for that, but I think he really is likely underrated. He would be untradeable for me unless the Twins found themselves with a sweet deal for a really good pitcher with a good amount of control left. I feel pretty confident Rodriguez will be a difference maker as a player but time will tell.

I think they make late moves because they generally get better value that way. Free agents that other teams passed on lose value and or negotiating power as spring training approaches. Trades can swing various directions depending on if a team really needs a guy or if they really want to dump a player. Just like at the trade deadline teams often seem to wait until the last minute to establish the best value for a player and or decide to overpay for a player. That being said if the Twins plan on Trading one or two of Farmer, Polanco, Kepler, Larnach it feels like they should do it sooner rather than later or they might not find a team that needs\wants those players. My hope would be that they can elicit some type of bidding war for players they are willing to move on from. It is hard to say what value gets placed on certain players, but need often trumps everything. I don't think they can or will keep everyone so expect at least one trade if not more..

If they have a shot I like the Lefty Montgomery the best. Twins could use a Quality Lefty starter and he is only 30 so a 5 year deal should age fairly well. I like Sonny as well and he can be signed to a 3 year deal, but it felt like he had a career year and I don't know if I trust the numbers or not. Don't get me wrong I think he will good just not sure if what he has is enough for me, Nola with a down year makes me worry about a decline, but I guess he has never been about velocity so likely bounces back. I'd love to have anyone of those arms to be honest, but I just don't see the Twins having the winning bid and they seem loath to invest years in pitchers over 30. Not sure what the stats are, but there must be something that gives them pause there. Gray on a three year deal seems the most possible to me, but there will be heavy interest in all those arms and the high Revenue clubs usually win those battles.

I agree with OP on the adds. Camargo needs to be added or will be gone and while he has warts in K rate and walk rate his HR power seems to make up for it. He seems solid behind the plate so really a perfect third catcher that with better plate discipline could be more. I like Enlow and he could be a good reliever in the end, but how many young relief guys that might or might not make it. can this team carry? They already have Sands, Winder, Henriquez, Headrick, Balazovich, Moran and Canterino. If Enlow deserves a 40 man spot one of those other guys has to go IMO. I'm not sure Enlow has shown enough to even beat out those names. Would love to have him back just not on the 40 man. Celestino is under rated IMO. His walk and K rates are really good. He simply lacks power. If the power ever shows up he is a major league Centerfielder. The issue is he and Martin have similar skillsets with Martin showing more power and better stealing numbers and Celestino the better defender. The issue is you really can only afford one of those two on the 40 man and with Celestino having two option years used up already and a bat that hasn't been a difference maker to this point he feels like the odd man out to me. Again I hope they sign him to a nice AAA contract and he doesn't get picked in Rule V but it doesn't seem like there is room on the 40 man for him IMO. Bechtold is really good third baseman but the bat just hasn't been MLB worthy to this point. If I were him I would see if the A's or Angels are interested as the Twins infield is stacked. The odds of him doing well in relief seem low to me but if he wants to stay on in that role with the Twins in the minors he would be a nice piece to have around.

You don't see many players that can command 6 pitches so that is unique. For me he was quite a surprise. Given what info I could read and where he was drafted I had him as a likely reliever. He was dominant at times this year and very hittable in other starts. If you watched the "The Show" it was stated that some games are more about working on a pitch that might be a weak point for hopeful better future performance. So stats won't\don't tell the whole story in some cases. A shout out to @DocBauer who was pretty high on Culpepper right from the draft. CJ is getting a lot of helium and I hope he is going to be a future dominant arm for the Twins.

Thanks for that info! I didn't go that deep. I agree the BABIP was low and I assumed it was likely weak contact, but thanks for setting the record straight. I think he is close as well and he "could" have played at the MLB level last year given the numbers, but likely prudent to give him more time as he has only had one full pro year. I can't remember talking about a player that has moved this fast through the Twins system ever before. That is why I think it will be AAA until he sort of proves he has made all the adjustments needed for the MLB level. The cold weather months in April\May are generally tough on hitters so I am thinking June\July before his numbers scream add me and call me up and that is best case scenario IMO.

It is exciting having Lee so close. With a 15% K rate and almost 10% walk rate he has a nice balanced line that should serve him well moving up. The thing that scares me a little with the good contact hitters is that the weak contact they generate can be just as bad as striking out. Miranda, The Turtle and others have low K rates and good contact rates yet still struggled at the MLB level. I like what he said about his approach this offseason to try to get better swings on certain pitches. He is a good hitter and the more experience he gets the better he is going to be. I still think he needs at least half of next year in AAA to refine some things but once he makes it to the big league level I don't see him ever coming back to the minors. If his bat turns out to be as special as we all hope he is going to be a great player for a long time.

You would mainly only offer him the QO if you only wanted him for one more year otherwise you are correct the Twins could try a two or three year deal and see if he takes it but once you are into Free Agency there is no guarantee the Twins will be the highest bidder and you could lose him for nothing. If you give him the QO and he doesn't take it then the Twins can still negotiate a multi year contract and if he leaves they at least get draft pick compensation. If he takes the QO you have overpaid but you have Maeda for at least one more year and don't have to worry about losing him or filling that spot.

Fun interview. Nice to confirm that when numbers drop sometimes it is that they are just working on weaknesses ro things to make them better down the road. From the sounds of the interview there were a lot of arms in CR with very good potential. Wichita should have some talent next year especially when it comes to starters. Nice hear two guys I really like in McCleod and Parades are under the radar picks. They both need to work on slightly better K\9 and fastball velocity, but they find ways to get guys out. Parades pitched really well down the stretch.

That is a good list. I really thought SWR was going to be something, but it really looks like he is stalling out at the higher levels. Not sure what the answer is there, but pen does seem likely at this point. Tough break on Prielipp. A steal in the 2nd round even if he ends up in a relief role. It is a long road back, but lot's of players have made it back. Hoping it just takes a bit more time but he reaches his full potential. Time will tell. Salas was a major disappointment. A bit more progress at the plate late in the season, but when you have a bat that bad it seems the whole approach is wrong. He is in Cavaco territory right now. Still young with a chance to bounce back, but next year is super important. If the bat doesn't progress the odds it ever will become lower and lower.

I think that is a good point. He never seems to get used as a top of the rotation arm. Come playoff time he tends to get bumped to the pen so that could offset his perceived value and I agree Eovaldi looks better for that role than Maeda. For 20M you would like to get a bit more than Maeda I get that, but if you only want a one year deal you generally have to give more AAV and I don't think the Twins want\need Maeda for more than one more year. Just need a bridge to Raya, Festa, Lewis and hopefully more arms after that. As noted by many it doesn't feel like the Twins have the money to spare if he accepts the QO. So my whole premise is likely moot. Thanks for the great feedback!