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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Beltre is starting to come on strong. It was a .770 OPS in June and in July so far he has an .896 OPS. Those are pretty darn good numbers for an 18 year old in the FCL. Also nice to see Chivili Pitching well. If he turns into a solid arm that would really help as he is the same age as Hill and Soto with Bohorquez age 20. That could be a nice wave of young arms coming up together. Really, really nice to see Hill with no walks. It shows several things. His stuff plays at that level so he can afford to be aggressive. He is gaining control of pitches and finally with that he is lasting longer in outings as he is more efficient. Hoping he can continue to have that kind of success the rest of the year. Langenburg had a great outing, but I am going to nitpick it a bit. I didn't see the first few innings he pitched, but what I did see left me feeling he was more effectively wild than good. Lot's of uncompetitive pitches in the dirt in front of the plate. I get there is strategy to that getting hitters to look at low strikes, but I came away feeling like he is the 5.00 ERA pitcher that he is. Maybe I missed how dominant he was early as he had several K's early, but his last three innings weren't that great IMO. Still it was a really good outing for him and he didn't give up any runs until his last inning. I just didn't see the dominance when I was watching. Gonzalez is going crazy. Is he gonna hit .400 at AA? He is at .370 right now. It's 43 games now at AA if he stays this hot to the end of the month send that kid to AAA pronto. Heck send him now he looks ready. The April and May swoon for Julien appears to be over his June OPS was .917 and his current July OPS is .990. I think he's got his groove back. Don't know if there is room on 26 man right now, but it sure is nice to see him back to the hitter he was.
  2. Dman
    Gotta agree. if they get back to 500 it's a different season again. Right now they are only three games back of the last wild card spot. After the break they play Colorado the Dodgers then the Nat's and Boston the last three games before the trade deadline. Unless they turn back into their old selves they will be within striking distance of a wild card spot. It's not looking like they will be seller's playing 6 games against the two worst two team's in the Notational league. If they take even just one game from the Dodgers they should be right there when they face Boston going into the deadline. I like to think of myself as pragmatic rather than negative, but after losing two out of three to the Marlins and staring down the Rays and Cubs who were both playing good baseball at the time. It seemed possible they might lose the next 6 games and certainly lose those series. Instead they won and if they can finish off the Pirate's and get to .500 that pretty much changes everything. We'll see what happens as this game can change in a hurry with injuries and poor play, but they will be getting Pablo and Keaschal back and they have finally started hitting better which makes them a dangerous team. Shout out to Buck on the cycle. Guy has a been a beast all season. I haven't been giving him the credit he deserves this year I guess primarily because he gets injured so much you just never know where he'll be at. I believe by OPS he is 3rd highest in the league right now. Truly a super star player. I have always loved that he wanted to stay in Minnesota. Not many players would have done the type of deal he did to stay. Very happy to see him having this kind of success and stamping his name as one of the best to play the game.
  3. Dman
    I'd think the Twins would want a promising arm that is fairly close in any deal given that we don't know what Ober looks like long term and with arb raises for Ryan and Ober and others they might want to unload a starting pitcher to save money. Granted moving Duran will help with the money side somewhat. They likely are only getting one headliner for a reliever though and then maybe a prospect in the 10 to 15 range and possibly some lotto's. I don't know what to think of Yesavage and his 6.00 ERA in AA. He is so young and the sample so small. The K rate looks good which is encouraging, but he would have to be in the deal for me as I don't see much else for arms I would want in a Duran deal. I do agree that it would be nice to find a catcher prospect in this deal that has legit promise, but I'd settle for a big arm and a bat in the 10 to 15 range that looks promising. My ideal deal would be with the Phillies and getting Abel and Tait somehow. That is too rich for just Duran but maybe if they throw in Castro and or Coulombe? Maybe that would get it done. That would give you a very close arm one that has already pitched at the MLB level and a catcher with a 60 arm who is hitting well at A ball right now.
  4. Dman
    Prospects flame out and it looks like that is what happened. Just two years ago he was hitting so well that he needed to be added to the 40 man. It has been a pretty precipitous fall since then. He was always a bit borderline as a prospect as he didn't provide much defense, but he used to have a ton of power in his bat. As others have said we'll find out how much he still likes baseball as this should be wake up call for him. Either he digs in and gets better somewhere else or gives up and goes home. I think this was the right the call though. There are a bunch of guys at AA waiting for their chance at AAA and you have someone who just hasn't provided much the last two years. They need the room to see if other bats can make it. I feel bad for Severino, but it is just the way the minors work.
  5. Dman
    I was hesitant to get too excited when he was at high A. Kind of old for that level, but he was dominant there. His numbers seem to be holding at AA except for walk rate which is down. The sample size is pretty small at AA at just 16 games and sometimes it takes a while for other teams to adjust to players. I think we need to give him more time to see if he keeps this up for a couple of months before crowning him. Still the numbers right now are impressive. Certainly as impressive as Culpepper and Gonzalez if you don't account for age. If this is who he is they have an impressive hitter on their hands. I don't know much about his defense.
  6. Dman
    So happy to see Raya pitching well!! This time he kept the walks and hits down as well. An absolutely dominant performance. More of this please!!!! I'm getting the feeling Culpeper doesn't like Gonzalez having a higher OPS than he does at AA. Both those guys with .900 OPS's just wrecking AA pitchers. I thought Keaschal was amazing last year, but I think Culpepper might out do him this year. Winokur with a big night as well. Homered at the end. He still needs some work, but happy to see him with three hits and getting his groove back.
  7. Dman
    I think I'd rather use the time to have the young guys figure it out. There is already talk of Jax being traded and he gets expensive faster than the younger arms. I'm not sure I see the benefit unless you think he would be a top of the rotation arm. I thought they talked about this to start the year and Jax felt more comfortable in his current role? Starting is so different from relieving I'm not sure how that would go. I guess if he pitched well as a starter it would increase his value, but the downside is if he hurts his arm with a starters load then we are really in a pickle. If anyone could do it it would be Jax. Guy is just a tough competitor. Personally I'd be inclined to let him do what what he does best which is be an elite pen arm.
  8. Dman
    It seems that must be the issue as nothing else makes sense. There are going to be a fair number of arb raises next year and given the performance of some of them they are going to get good bumps. Still top of rotation arms are are the hardest thing to find in baseball. I wouldn't start by trading that type of asset away if I want to win playoff games.
  9. Dman
    It would take a lot for me to want to trade Ryan. Just keeping him for two more years you likely get another first round pick when he leaves. It would take a truly special return to let him go with essentially three years of control left. Beyond that maybe I am far to optimistic, but it seems like this team isn't all that far away from contending. If they keep Ryan I think they have a solid rotation with two arms that could make playoff starts. The bullpen is starting to look really solid. They just need to get the bats going with some semblance of consistency and they can play with anyone. Remember all those years we have tried to trade for top pitching and never could meet the price or develop it? Why give it away now that you have it? It is the hardest thing to find in baseball. Personally if this team is halfway decent I would hang onto him until he leaves for free agency. Get my draft pick and call it good.
  10. Dman
    When this team pitches well they win games. four runs from this offense is about the best you can hope for most nights so they need to pitch well to win. I think the baseball gods dislike me. When I root for this team to win they lose badly. When I essentially root for them to lose or don't care if they lose they get series wins against two of the better teams in baseball. Being three back with one of the easier schedule's to the deadline playing the bottom three NL teams in three different series. There is a good chance this team is in one of the wild card spots come the end of July. Unless the baseball gods reverse course, because I see a path to the playoffs.
  11. Dman
    Great post Doc. Totally agree on Bremnar. I think his arm action could be something like Bieber had in Cleveland. I think it is a top of the rotation arm, he won't get past picks 11 to 15 if he lasts that long. All the really good arms look like they will be gone around the top 10. I like Woods stuff. I think it can be elite in time. He could droop to 16 or late 20's. Kind of Joe Ryan like, but with a shoulder impingement already and only two plus pitches that seems like too much risk for me at 16. If he were still there at 36 or 54 I would do it, but I imagine he won't last that long. I have them taking a college player again at 16. Summerhill could be plus everywhere with a question mark with power. Likely just a left fielder despite good speed, but he would be plus defensively there. Aloy comes with concerns with chase and thus the bat to some degree, but it would be nice to have an infielder with a nice power stoke. It's something they don't have in the system and he plays good D at short as well. Both could be gone before the Twins pick, but most mocks have them making it to 16.
  12. Dman
    Can't wait for the live stream. It was a lot of fun last year. I'm with @DocBauer I just love to dream on these kids. I also agree that if the right college pitcher falls it would be nice to have a fast moving arm with mid rotation potential. Looking at the way most boards are shaping up I have them taking Aloy or Summerhill at 16. So many things can happen to change consensus though we won't know until we know. Appreciate all the work and effort you put into this Jamie!!! It is greatly appreciated.
  13. Dman
    We won't know what really makes sense until the deadline. Falvey has to say he isn't focused on selling and that he believes in team. For one he created the team so it looks bad if you don't support what you put together. For another being only four games back of a wild card spot if the team does go on a run they could stand pat and go for it. They are not dead yet, but given the way this team has performed the last three months they don't look like a contender. even if they do make the wild card. It wouldn't make sense for him to say this early that the team has really disappointed and we are looking at selling. When the time is right which will likely be a week before the deadline he'll fess up to what they are going to do for real.
  14. Dman
    Brewers would do that deal in a heartbeat. That would net them a closer type arm on a cheap salary for the next few years. Stewart isn't even arb eligible until 2026. Granted he is 34 in October. Still if the Brewers want a high octane arm with years of control on the cheap side this would be an incredible deal for them IMO. They would also have the ability to trade him for something better than they gave up at the end of the season. I would think they would be very interested in that deal. I think that's a fair bit of risk for Minnesota. He hasn't hit above high A. Its a max effort swing that might not handle the breaking stuff they throw at AA and AAA let alone the majors. It is also all small sample sizes. Only 26 games at A ball last year with regression already in 32 games at High A. I wouldn't want to base my decision on so few games especially at the lower levels. It's an interesting profile but more as a lottery ticket than headliner IMO. I'd think the Twins would want more for 3 plus years of control of an elite pen arm
  15. Dman
    If the Twins do go on a run here you are right they could get right back in it as a lot of teams are hovering around .500 ball. They are only 4 games in back of the last Wild Card spot. If they are more than 5 games back by the deadline that is a tall order to overcome. They would likely have to win at a .600 or better clip to sneak in and they haven't been that kind of team so far this year. They will get reinforcements with Pablo and Keaschal and Matthews on the way back. Still no guarantee those players are back to form right away either and no guarantee they won't have more injuries along the way. It is going to be an interesting next three weeks.
  16. Dman
    Awesome! I loved reading this.
  17. Dman
    I can see not moving a Jax or Duran type player before new ownership comes into play. They still have years of control and it seems a year too early to be trading them anyway. I guess I fail to see the logic of not trading guys on one year deals at the deadline? Unless they plan to extend them they won't be back. The team saves some money this year and they hopefully get something of value for players they were not going to retain. If they are out of it what's the difference? 1 win? 2 wins? It also might set the team up better for next year to give some younger players MLB time. If that is the way they operate I would definitely want a new FO. All the other teams in our division make deadline deals to get better all the time. Detroit sold everything they could last year. KC did when they were out of it and Guardian's trade whether they are in the race or not. White Sox are lining up to trade already. Seems like that would be malpractice as a team to not trade players if you are out of it. IMO.
  18. Dman
    I have been looking at last years deadline and rental players don't return much unless they are unique in some way. Position players generally return quite a bit less than starting pitching. If Castro keeps his OPS up I'd argue he could get something decent. If and it's a big if Bader gets his OPS up around .800 he could be in demand as well They need to be a ways above replacement level to get anything decent at the deadline. There is likely so much starting pitching available I think it will be hard to even trade Paddack let alone net a decent return. Coulombe might bring back something good as one of the better lefties out there. He's been used sparingly this year so not sure what other teams will think about that, but he has been a stopper. If those players keep looking good to the deadline they could get anywhere from top 10 to 15 player in someone's system. If they regress with the bat then top 15 to 30. Maybe two lower end prospects or lottery tickets. Teams only really pay for more elite players and only so many of them get traded. We'll see what happens.
  19. Dman
    Yeah that's right, my bad. He just didn't trust him with such a slim lead.
  20. Dman
    I
  21. Dman
    No one is arguing he can't make it, but he needs to prove it again at AAA. Especially coming back from injury. We haven't even seen much power out of him yet. Two months of great play isn't enough to just send him to the majors. To small a sample. He wasn't in A ball for a year or High A for year or AA for a year like most players to prove the production is for real. Also other things are in play. Those 40 man spots are valuable. Someone needs to go, for him to have a spot and they have a lot of second baseman. Would you not protect Schobel to put Eeles on the 40 man this year? Getting rid of Jullien? There isn't room for everyone. Eeles doesn't "need" to be added right away unless he "proves" he is ready and he proves it by giving a larger sample size of production. That is all most were arguing. He might have to prove he is better than Keaschal, Lee and Culpepper to find a spot. That might take time. He had a great night tonight I can't think of single person on the board that doesn't want him to make it. I just think there is no hurry and that he needs to prove that he can continue that type of production at AAA before adding him to the 40 man and it looks like that is what the Twins are doing. I have watched him a ton as well, All the way when he jump started the Fort Myers team. Everyone can see he looks "special", but it is still a small sample size. One year of production out of someone in Indy ball. He'll get there once they feel he is the best fit for the team. Right now they have Correa, Lee and Lewis as the main infield. Whose place is he taking?
  22. Dman
    That actually doesn't look bad. Is that just this years stats or total? I guess Rocko is the only who knows why he didn't trust him. I swear I have seen Sim get beat up late, but I must be wrong.
  23. Dman
    This is pretty much my exact thinking. Hopefully you can move on from some of those guys and give younger players more chances to see what they can or cannot do at the MLB level. The odds of this team as constructed beating Detroit or Houston in 7 game series would be astronomical IMO. Gonna need some young blood that moves the needle Like Riley Green etc. that the Detroit found. If we can get a couple 45 FV guys that should help down the road and developing some younger players should also help.
  24. Dman
    I think the stats bear out that SWR isn't as good the third time through the order. The Twins are in a spot where they can't afford to lose any winnable games. I can understand them playing the odds for the win. The bullpen was rested, it was a two run game against a very good offensive team and the bullpen has been good recently. I think the odds for the win favored going bullpen early. Still using all those arms right out of the gate could hurt them the rest of the series. We'll find out how this works out the next couple of days. At least they did manage to get the win so the strategy did work.
  25. Dman
    We all want to see those players and if the system was designed in a way to allow for that we would likely see more of that. As things stand you can't just add all these guys get tired of them and then expose them to waivers. You have to have a plan. I think that is all most are saying when it comes to Eeles. Here's an example for you. Anthony Prato had a lights out year at AAA in 2023. Close to the same number of games as Eeles (72 vs 64). .302 batting average .991 OPS. Monster numbers. He never has come close to those numbers since at any level. Adding him to the 40 man after that good stretch would have been a mistake. They had guys like me saying they would lose him to rule V, but it didn't happen and he came right back down to earth the next year. They can give Eeles all the time they need to be sure he needs to be added.
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