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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Yeah power is tough to project but Corbin Carroll was supposed to be a slap hitter and now hits for power. Same could be said of Spencer Steer. Not saying just anyone can do it but power would be the tool I would be least worried about as it seems to come around in time. I think Williams will have power but most likely not high end power like Buxton. I think contact hitters are as important as power hitters. The ability to get on base and work the pitcher has its merits. Just look at what Arraez has done and you can see how important it can be. Not saying Williams could ever be "that" good but getting on base and not making outs puts pressure on the other team. The Twins have plenty of power hitters so focusing on a speedy contact hitter could help balance the system a little. To your point speed for stolen bases might be over rated but it still helps with defense and turning long singles into doubles. It is a trait the Twins could use more of. Speed is what makes Buxton elite in center. It can help when you are late in the game and really need that stolen base. Speed helps most though when it comes to defense and getting to balls someone slower can't. I'm not saying Williams is a perfect pick but I do think the skills he has could translate into an elite player and I think that is what you are looking for at number 8.
  2. Dman
    I am keeping my eyes on Sisk and Wood and maybe Schulfer as possible adds for the the Twins pen. Sisk could be another decent lefty reliever and we don't have many of those. Personally I would have had Sisk as number one your list as I like his much better balanced WHIP and ERA. His K rate isn't bad either just not as high as Bently's. Milaki would even be a better number 1 as well IMO but I would go with the guy at AAA first. To me the thing that separate's the relief arms that make it and those that don't is generally WHIP. If you can't keep it close to 1.00 then they aren't ready. Need K's too but that is what generally helps keep the WHIP down. Some good performances and hopefully they work their way up to the MLB level.
  3. Dman
    He is someone I have read quite a bit about. I mean some evaluators think he isn't all that far off from Johnson who is in the top seven. If the Twins could get a below slot deal with this guy I would do it. The only real issue holding him back is the arm. If you wanted him at short or center there do seem to be lot's of questions about the arm. If you see him at second the arm isn't an issue. I think you have to assume the arm will be average at best. To me he looks like he could be Altuve lite. I really, really like the skillset and he fits better with the Twins next wave of Urbina, Miller, Rodriguez, Rosario etc. I would have no problem if the Twins took him at 8 and saved money for the later rounds. I definitely like it more than the Cross pick.
  4. Dman
    The thing that bugs me most is he just can't execute when he needs to. He can't seem to throw a strike in a 3-2 count he just buries it in the dirt almost every time. He can't seem to control his stuff. He also doesn't pitch well to the edges and likes to hug the middle of the plate. When his stuff is in the zone it gets hit hard. He gives up too many home runs. He is allergic to first pitch strikes. There is only one player I prefer to not see come out of the pen more than Pagan and that is Duffy. That being said I hope Nick is right. Colome did do better after the season was already lost for the Twins and he is having a very good year again this year. Pagan started out this year fine although with lot's runners on base and hopefully he finds his mojo and gets things going again. It is just that watching him pitch is one of the more frustrating experiences you can have. He generally makes his relief inning look very. very hard instead of easy peasy. We definitely need him to turn things around after watching him this long though I have my doubts.
  5. Dman
    I was wondering if there was something wrong with Kopek. Maybe I remember wrong but I thought his fastball was usually 96-97 and last night it seemed to be more 93-94. Also on the Kepler and Polanco Home Runs the placement of those pitches and the pitches themselves were poor. Maybe others are right that the first inning just took too great a toll and his stuff just wasn't as good as normal. At any rate I had the game penciled in as a loss but should have known the better the pitcher the better the Twins offense. Kind of crazy but they have done well against some really good pitchers this year. The ABC top of the order went 1 for 13 with 2 walks so thankfully the other six accounted for another 11 hits 4 of which were home runs. The two young hitters Miranda and Kirilloff were really impressive. They are making this lineup very deep with dangerous bats. Really nice to see that home run power return for Kirilloff especially opposite field. If he heats up like he did in minor league ball he could be an all-star caliber player at the MLB level. Winder was rock solid again. The starting pitching has been there this year. If the pen can hold on or improve this team could be dangerous.
  6. Dman
    My bigger question is if the Twins could save 1.5 Million off of the 5.4 Million they get at pick 8 (for Neto, Gilbert some other comparable player) then couldn't they make a deal with one of the pitchers expected to go say in the low 20's and pick them at 48 as that pick is worth 1.6 million and if you add the 1.5 million saved that puts them in range of the money that player would receive at say pick 21 and below. Then they would essentially be getting two lower first round talents for the price of one higher pick. It just seems that if they don't get one of the top 7 the rest of the other players 8-30 seem fairly close to clumped together in rating. Why not increase your odds and try and get two of those top 25 to 30 players instead of waiting for pick 48. Still if one of the top 7 fall it would be hard to pass on a player that could have All Star potential or be a special player. It just seems like the Twins are one pick too short to get one of those unless of course other teams try to spread their money around as well.
  7. Dman
    Turner was faster a big time bag stealer who could hit. I think the big knock on him was his slighter frame which Neto has and his risk for injury. I think a lot teams felt he wouldn't make it through full seasons without getting injured so he dropped some. I think Neto likely has better bat to ball skills and probably a better arm but Turner would beat him everywhere else. They are two pretty different prospect except for maybe the thin build.
  8. Dman
    Gilbert could be an interesting play. Another good contact hitter that can play center field which the system is light on right now. Has a very good arm and runs better than average not a burner but probably Nick Gordon type speed in center. He has power maybe not elite HR power but the Twins are pretty good at getting their guys to hit for power and he does have a strong OPS so he gets his share of extra base hits. To be honest he looks like a better contact hitter than Cross with slightly more speed a better arm but worse power at least for now. He is slated to go in the low 20's to mid 30's. Is this a guy that might take say a 1.5 Mil discount at 8 and then the Twins would be in range to get a pitcher in the lower 1st round as a pick in the 2nd round or is that just pie in the sky thinking?
  9. Dman
    With the K rate and sometimes poor contact I didn't think Wallner could sustain this kind of production for more than a streaky few weeks. He is just a dominating force at AA right now. Still happy to see he is willing to take some walks. Guys are going to want to pitch around him and or pitch him tough from here on out. If this is who he is the Twins found a good one as he has power to all fields.
  10. Dman
    I like Neto and I think having great bat to ball skills along with solid defense is a nice package. I get the unusual setup at the plate is less than ideal but I think several top prospects Jung, Lee, Parada have unusual setups as well. I think that stuff gets overblown sometimes. He doesn't look like someone who will be above average defensively at short so I get the concern taking him that high but bat first no position type players are not any better except for maybe more power so not sure that is an overly legit concern. I get that it isn't all pretty when looking at Neto but looking down the list it looks like you need to drop down and take someone like Cole Young, or Jett Williams to get something comparable or maybe Juston Crawford although the slight frame gives me pause on him. Otherwise you are back to Jung and Berry position-less players. The latest Mocks seem to really be focusing in on the Twins taking Cross. He fits the best with the models they use for hitters. That pick does not excite me but I have such little information I am likely stumbling around in the dark just getting snippets of which outlet likes which players and why. Maybe Cross is the solid play there but when has trouble hitting breaking stuff is in the profile that concerns me. After Rooker and Sabato providing nothing I am not so sure I trust whatever model they are using anyway. Still hoping someone takes the big versatile bat Berry and one of the other 7 drop to us.
  11. Dman
    It was the lack of power and the low OPS that had people down on him. Given his build, power didn't look like something that was going to come easy for Gordon so yeah I can understand why a lot of us were down on him. He didn't pass the eye or stats test IMO. I think the thing that kept him on the team with his mainly sub 700 OPS was his speed and ability to play infield and outfield quite well. If this power trend is something that sticks he will be a very valuable player. There is going to be a lot of competition for these spots with Lewis and Steer and Jullien and others possibly needing Rule V protection. So he needs to keep preforming well. With the low walk rate his OBP is always going to suffer so he has his weaknesses. If I was pitching to him I would just keep my stuff out of the zone and let him get himself out. Still that is a very good month with the bat and he has to do it not knowing when or where he is going to play which is not easy to do either. I hope he keeps it up as he is one of the few guys who has above average speed on this team. I am rooting for him but he is going to need to sustain that type of performance if he wants to stay with the Twins. He hasn't proven he can have more than a few good months per year so far in his career. July\August should put the numbers in greater perspective.
  12. Dman
    Great work by Bundy last night. I have been hard on him but he has been solid more often than not recently. He certainly is fearless in the zone and Sox were swinging so he had the low pitch count. I had this matchup penciled in as a loss so if Bundy had only given up 1 run through 5 I'm not taking any chances and I would have gone to the pen too. Especially in a tight must win game. Buxton sure does seem to come up big at times and is not afraid of big moments but it seems like he has been a bit too aggressive at the plate recently. A walk is still better than an out if they are not going to throw you something good to hit. Kirilloff is starting to become a very important bat for this team. He and Mirnada could lift this team up offensively which we could use. In the end it feels like we kind of got lucky to win this one but a win is a win. It felt like the same old script was there waiting for us to lose in the 9th but this time the script flipped and we found a way to win instead. Gonna be tough going against Kopek today so nice to get the win last night.
  13. Dman
    Nice list and really enjoyed your descriptions of how players were performing. Also nice to see a list out of the mainstream. I would have had Rodriguez a head of Miller mainly because his bat played so much better and looks to have star potential. While I think Millers hit tool is going to be good he has been struggling for a while now. Still a fun read. Thanks!
  14. Dman
    Honestly I think every situation is different. You look at last year and the Twins stuck with Simmons no matter how bad his bat was. So I think the situations are different for veterans versus Rookies. In general my feeling is that Rookies generally get less leeway at the MLB level because they have never proven what they can do at the MLB level. They are an unknown when they first come up. Not every player makes it so if they struggle you can only give them so much time to figure things out. First the team can't afford to give away many bad at bats and second if an unproven player is getting schooled at the MLB level probably better to send him down and have him work on the weaknesses teams have found to get him out. Yes Rookies need to time to adjust but at the same time if they are not preforming relatively quickly they can't keep a black hole bat in the lineup for long. So I can see why Rookies get the hook relatively early. Veterans are veterans because they have had proven success at the Big league level. They have a known track record so teams better know what to expect. Granted the numbers change every year but veterans usually get a very long leash based on prior performance. Eventually every vet comes to the end of the road. They can only be bad for so long before they get axed as well. I know Ideally at least for Rookies teams like to give them a certain number of at bats to get a chance to adjust but a team like the Twins looking for a playoff spot is going to have a shorter leash than teams that are pretty much out of it. IMO I think it is very situationally based. So every situation is different.
  15. Dman
    It sure seems likes Beckham belongs in MLB. Hopefully he keeps that OPS in the 1.000 range through July and he might be trade bait. Jullien just short of a .900 OPS right now. He is another very talented bat in this system. Good eye at the plate and good power. He is right there with Steer with the bat but not as good as Steer defensively. The Twins have a lot of very good utility type infielders in the system right now. Wander Javier keeps getting hits. I am keeping my eye on him again. Hoping he can still be a solution for this team.
  16. Dman
    Berry has a lot of things I like in a prospect. Plus power, plus hit tool, good plate discipline. To top it off he is a switch hitter that hits pretty evenly from both sides so he always has a slight advantage at the plate. So as a hitter he is a draft dream. The problem is he brings nothing defensively and if he is stuck at mainly DH he better come with an elite bat. On one side you get everything you want in an offensive profile on the other side you get stuck with a player that will never be plus defensively and could be an obstacle to move around in the DH spot. If the bat does turn out elite though you have a feared difference maker bat on your team. A player that should have a high OBP and OPS. If the bat is just average, however, you have nothing because there is no value to be had on the defensive side. The Twins would be risking everything on the bat if they make that pick. If it were me picking that high I would rather go with Neto and even Young. Both play up the middle and have good bats they just lack Berry's power. There is a lot of value in players that play good defense and can still hit. Arraez is a good example that power isn't everything. At 8 I think the Twins should be grabbing a player that can play both ways so for me Berry would be a no.
  17. Dman
    Gotta give some props to Jake Cave. He has the highest OPS for the Saints right now even passing up Spencer Steer who hasn't been there all year. I guess a healthy Cave is still a good hitter. There is no room on the 26 man so can't see him being added but he still looks like a good 4th outfielder. He has a solid bat and can play solid Defense when healthy. I don't know how Parades does it but I would like to see if it carries over to High A. A good ERA and WHIP he is worthy but I wonder if this will be another Stankewitcz kind of deal Cespedes and LaRon Smith both seem to doing well moving into A ball. Would be nice to have some better bats there and maybe they can be it. Mercedes is also off to good professional debut. If his bat is for real he could be a fast mover because I believe his other tools are really good.
  18. Dman
    Felt like Lyles was kind of lucky all day and the Twins were too aggressive with two on and not outs and made outs on ball 4 a couple of times. Lopez throws some really nasty stuff ball moves all over the the place but I guess I don't understand throwing that 99 MPH sinker right down the middle of plate. There were better places to throw it and how does Miranda actually pull the ball on a 99 MPH pitch? Strange but the Twins have been good against some of the best pitchers in baseball this year. Glad they got it going in the 9th and got the win. Cleveland has some easy games coming up. Also I am always kind of low man on Gordon but if he is going to keep hitting HR's and be a very flexible defender he looks like a keeper.
  19. Dman
    Pretty Surprised that Rozek was "that" good. I knew he had been pitching well but I guess I hadn't calculated just how well. He is old for the league but I love underdogs and he is fun to cheer for. Still Festa just wow. For a 13th round selection he has been dynamic. Amazing how they have been able re-shape him getting his velocity and deception up. He looks very promising. I know there are still questions about if he really has that third pitch nailed down but golly gee wiz it fun watching him have such surprising success his first full season of pro ball. Varland has been the most consistent upper level starter this year. It hasn't always been pretty but he always gets the job done and his K rate is good as well. I still think his stuff plays up in the pen but he has been solid as a starter and the Twins need starters. A little bit better horizontal run on that slider and I think he can make it. Hope they move him AAA soon as he just a bit old for AA. Happy to see Sands back in the mix. The MLB team is going to need him so I hope he is ready. A nice top 5 but several key prospects are missing from this list. Hopefully they July is their month to shine.
  20. Dman
    I really like the arm and he could be a dominant at the MLB level. On the Positive side he has TJ out of the way so could be a fast mover through the system and he has a floor of elite reliever. On the negative side since he needed TJ already will he be durable enough to remain a starter? If you are taking him at 8 you are expecting an ace level arm. He doesn't have a proven changeup yet and guys don't always develop good ones. So if ends up just a reliever I don't think that is what you want at 8. Not that they are identical comps but Tyler Jay was a dominant relief arm that the Twins took early that they hoped could be a starter and that did not turn out well. It is hard to convince yourself that pitchers drafted high are going to make it and work out but with all the question marks on Prielip I just can't see the Twins taking him at number 8. I think he falls to the back half of the first round to be honest.
  21. Dman
    I was thinking\hoping that maybe they could get a rental reliever for Cave and or Cave and lessor prospect. Maybe the same for Beckham? For a team looking for some depth they both make sense and to me seems more likely to fill a role than a lotto ticket prospect or B or C prospect. Still it depends on what the team you trade with wants or needs so they might not be good fits for teams that have what we want. At any rate if both players continue to produce they should have at least some value at the deadline IMO.
  22. Dman
    Have to say the last few years I was really concerned about Wallner being a bust. He didn't take many walks and was the K king of the system. He has really come around this year. Still a fairly high K rate but if he can even that out with walks and keep that OBP up then I think that is fine. If this is who he is the Twins could have an absolutely monster bat waiting in the wings. Really nice to Wander Javier with a very good month at the plate. He has had some really important hits with men on base and he is showing his power more as well. Still a fair bit to work on but there still is chance he can get to the Majors. He just needs to stay consistent and find a way to not strike out quite so much.
  23. Dman
    Yeah I think Cave could be a good trade chip. He doesn't have to take up a 40 man spot right away for the team getting him and he can be a solid 4th outfielder with a good amount of MLB experience already. For the right team he could have a lot of value.
  24. Dman
    He has looked better since coming back this last time from the big leagues. He started out the season essentially unhittable and then went into a major funk. It's all a learning process but I sure hope he is another we can lean in the near future as we need to build arms out for the rotation and maybe more importantly right now the pen.
  25. Dman
    Last year the Twins finally took a pitcher in the 1st round but as the OP stated I think there are too many bats at the top for them to go pitcher at 8. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if pitchers dropped out of the top 10 completely and picked up steam from 15 to the supplemental round. I like both Lesko and Porter and could see them worthy of the number 8 spot. Lesko was talked about going top 10 until TJ but given the success rate with that surgery his having TJ out of the way might be a good thing for whoever picks him because he should be a fast mover after that. Porter has that Chris Sale type body and the velocity to go with it so I like him as well. Thing is the Twins don't like to bet on arms early in the draft and they have been able to find pitchers later in the draft so I highly doubt they go pitcher at 8. Given the lack of high end arms in the system though I wouldn't mind them going pitcher with their top 3 picks and then spreading things out from there but I don't think they will do that.
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