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Richie the Rally Goat

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Everything posted by Richie the Rally Goat

  1. Richie the Rally Goat
    The season is early, but… By BABIP they are 29th at .268 vs league average should be around .300. That could point to some bad luck/regression to the mean. wRC+ and wOBA they are in the 90 and .300 range suggesting closer to middle third in terms of hitting rank once the samples normalize, but average or below average.
  2. Richie the Rally Goat
    We are talking about small sample sizes, but season to date he’s hitting 141 wRC+. That’s 41% better than league average.
  3. Richie the Rally Goat
    It’s 6 games. Bad teams win 40% of their games against better teams. Correa should improve as the season progresses Kiriloff just came back, Miranda and Larnach aren’t locks, but there’s hope they can show this year what they’ve shown in the past. Maybe Royce comes back and shows the promise that he held last season. Farmer should come back and provide a very nice floor above the current reserve levels. Solano and Castro’s playing time should reduce as the above players mentioned get healthier/find their stroke. Kepler is looking more like (or better than) what I expected. Gallo has been very good, these two combined make my offseason rants look very foolish so far. Buxton has hit very well! Jeffers should be getting some more time behind the dish, and Polanco is looking like he’s getting back to normal too. the floor should raise for the hitters as we go through May. There should be more hitters to carry the load soon.
  4. Richie the Rally Goat
    You can cherry pick your stats or record to tell whatever story you want to tell. Twins are 19-16, First in the Al Central, and don’t have to give back wins because of a bad series. Losses are going to happen
  5. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed on small sample size. Not sure I agree with the pitching and defense winning titles. To your point, you must have good run prevention in order to Win a World Series. But run prevention alone frequently ends with a team below .500 record. Looking at the last 5 years, Dodgers and Astros have been most frequently deep in the post season, winning World Series, and having some of the best run prevention in baseball. They also scored a ton of runs! It’s differential that matters. Teams that score more runs than their opponents win more. A team that gives up 162 runs in a season can still go under .500 if they also don’t score any runs, just the same as if they score 900 runs but give up 2000.
  6. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed on the strike-thrower point, he has toggled year to year between 14% bb-k and 27% and he’s currently in the 14% range in the very small sample that he’s done several times in the minors. I think he’s done a better job expanding the bottom of the zone, getting righties to swing at down and away more frequently. His bb-k rate is on the better end of his career, but the GB rate .65 vs historic under .4 is way up and hr/fb and slugging are way down. The slugging part might creep up as more GBs squirt into the outfield, but thus far a ton of weak contact. 2021 31% swings at down and away to righties 2022 46% swings down and away this year 58%! He already has 92 pitches down and away this year, vs 430 all of last year, and getting more swings with great weak contact 21 percentile in average exit velo. Terry Ryan and Bert Blyleven would be proud!
  7. Richie the Rally Goat
    Yup! Rosin is pine sap, so orange oil, goo gone, goof off, dish soap, all those water based degreasing acids would do the job, turpentine too, but might be too harsh. Rubbing alcohol is supposed to work too, but you need a lot.
  8. Richie the Rally Goat
  9. Richie the Rally Goat
    Good eye Buck!
  10. Richie the Rally Goat
    I’m watching too
  11. Richie the Rally Goat
    Kep!
  12. Richie the Rally Goat
    Apple TV has a Friday night baseball game of the week. I think the Twins only play a couple this season, but there’s at least one game a week on Apple, plus a a lot of other MLB programming/documentaries.
  13. Richie the Rally Goat
    This sucks! I feel terrible for Mahle and hope he can recover fully in the 60 day stint!
  14. Richie the Rally Goat
  15. Richie the Rally Goat
    Rocco didn’t trade for Mahle, Rocco’s not the GM. What does fan expectation have to do with pro sport team performance?
  16. Richie the Rally Goat
    I find myself defending Baldelli quite a bit, but I don’t know if I like him as a manager, as much as I agree with your point. to add to your point, if the manager really is the problem and he needs to be replaced, who might Falvey and Levine choose to replace him with? If not naming names, what values do Falvey and Levine hold that they would use in a hiring decision? Rocco is their guy, hand picked. Not just who’s available that checks all the boxes we would lay out, but who also aligns with Falvine’s values? Whoever that person is, would likely be very similar in approach to decision making. The Twins have a very Matrixed organization and likely things won’t change much until those two are gone.
  17. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed, I too think the OP is on to something, but too SSS to draw conclusions yet. I like wOBA as a metric for the situation. Avoid an out better than the rest of the league.
  18. Richie the Rally Goat
    Pulling too late can also lead to injury, leading to the same taxed bullpen as well as testing rotation depth from AAA.
  19. Richie the Rally Goat
    Agreed entirely and would add, Rocco isn’t the GM. He chooses when to use players but not to DFA them. Pagan and Moran being on the roster is up to Thad Levine.
  20. Richie the Rally Goat
    Those were my thought too. Hoping for recovery on the shorter end of the timeline. wondering if compensating for the previous injury caused some new injury. Likely we’ll never know
  21. Richie the Rally Goat
    Epic rant! Listening to that was like waiting for my kids to go to sleep and then eating their Halloween candy. I almost feel a little bit guilty about how good it is.
  22. Richie the Rally Goat
    Disappointed, hopefully it’s just one start and he’s back quickly!
  23. Richie the Rally Goat
    Castro isn’t hitting “well” but I think a strong case can be made that Castro is indeed hitting better than Gordon. Pick your stat, Gordon’s K rate is lower, but that’s the only one that paints a rosey picture. My favorite wRC+ has Castro 18% below league average (bad) and Gordon 118% below league average. That’s impressively bad.
  24. Richie the Rally Goat
    Ober 154 major league innings (about a season’s worth) he sports a 3.74 ERA, a strikeout per inning and 2.4 WAR. That’s comparable to 2022 Robbie Ray, Adam Wainright, top 30ish starting pitchers in baseball. Not bad for a 4th/5th/6th starter! Do I expect the savior of the rotation? No, but a solid starter.
  25. Richie the Rally Goat
    I want more Chief jokes, not fewer, but to each their own
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