Richie the Rally Goat

Glad to hear Maeda’s injury wasn’t arm related. I was multitasking during meetings and missed important details.

Agreed, however how much leash can they afford to give him to prove it? He’s not the only one not pulling his weight, and at some point soon the FO needs to pull the plug on these guys. It starts with the guys with options, but doesn’t end there. May 1 is 10 days away and if they don’t get the bats going soon, the pitching won’t always be able to overcome the anemic hitting.

Welcome to TD! go Fort Myers Mighty Mussels!

Me too

I have been on the Nick Gordon bandwagon, and still agree with you whole heartedly. He doesn’t field well enough to not hit, and he doesn’t walk so when it falls apart, it really falls apart.

How many hitters on the roster have earned the “every day hitter, roster lock” tag? This team cant find runs with both hands and a map. Kiriloff healthy = immediate lineup insertion

Does Garlick have enough service time to reject optional assignment? Would he?

As others have said, I wouldn’t call 100 wRC+ a solid start for a corner outfielder. I’d like to see the sample size expand before making a pronouncement, but so far, need more production.

well, I’d say yes, they do care, every bit as much as the fans, or more. https://m.startribune.com/minnesota-twins-spring-training-rocco-baldelli-sonny-gray-kyle-garlick-world-baseball-classic/600253105/?clmob=y&c=n&clmob=y&c=n “Baldelli also repeated his exhortation from last week to the pitching staff: That it's up to each individual to do what's necessary to improve, but that the ultimate goal is a team one: Winning, first and foremost.” "That's the only reason I'm still playing this game. Winning is the only thing that matters," said Gray, 33. "Goosebumps even talking about it, because it's something I personally believe wholeheartedly. Whatever goals you may have stem from winning."

Cite your stats please. How do you know Rocco’s record in 1 run games is bad, how do you know a good manager “always” has a winning record in 1 run games?

I have loved hearing Perkins (especially) and Morneau on the stats explainers. A little over a year ago I wrote up a blog about John Madden’s impact on football and MLB’s need for a teacher, maybe Perkins is that guy. I absolutely love it, I love that the Twins are leading the way, and it’s making for a fun season (at least for me)

I predict the Twins lose the opener but win the following two, taking the series go Twins!

Sanchez is on a minor league deal https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/catcher-gary-sánchez-gets-minor-league-deal-from-giants/ar-AA19me4n

25-30 home runs and striking out 200 times would be very difficult to watch, but valuable.

“The bigger question surrounds which version of Gallo’s bat comes north to Target Field. Will he be the behemoth that slugged 38 home runs in three different seasons? Or will he be the heir-apparent to Miguel Sano’s throne of punch outs?” Both is a strong possibility. After a couple dingers today, I am more optimistic he can contribute something with the stick, but it’s only 3 games. Too early to tell

Or maybe Do on MLB.com? oh wait….

162 and OH!

Name IP ERA FIP Griffin Jax 72.1 3.36 3.17 Jhoan Duran 67.2 1.86 2.52 Emilio Pagan 63.0 4.43 4.21 Caleb Thielbar 59.1 3.49 2.42 Trevor Megill 45.0 4.80 3.29 Tyler Duffey 44.0 4.91 4.79 Jovani Moran 40.2 2.21 1.78 Jharel Cotton 35.0 2.83 5.48 Joe Smith 27.1 4.61 6.30 Michael Fulmer 24.1 3.70 4.14 Jorge Lopez 22.2 4.37 4.35 Cole Sands 18.1 3.44 3.55 Cody Stashak 16.1 3.86 2.07 Aaron Sanchez 16.0 5.06 4.11 Josh Winder 14.0 5.79 6.33 Yennier Cano 13.2 9.22 6.55 Danny Coulombe 12.1 1.46 3.84 Ronny Henriquez 11.2 2.31 3.97 599.7 3.98388888888889 4.04833333333333 You make a good point. Expanding scope paints a different picture. I used a simple average, because ERA is already an average, but I used an arbitrary 40 innings as a cutoff (not rate stat to cherry pick). 30 innings or 20 innings might have been more representative. I don’t think 12 innings of Danny Coloumbe makes sense to include in the sample. He only pitched 12 innings.

I don’t have an agenda, I like data and want to frame up outcomes vs prediction. We know the outcomes based on how the events transpired. We don’t know what the outcomes would have been if the events were managed differently. I’m using FIP to predict what would have happened in if the Bullpen pitched fewer innings and Sonny Gray pitched more innings. The assertion that Sonny Gray would have pitched the same, were he to have pitched more innings than he did, is false. We don’t know what what the outcomes would have been. Also, Sonny Gray got shut down after 119.2 innings, due to injury. Were he to pitch more innings if he pitched longer starts, the theory behind hundred pitch starts says “no, a pitcher only has so many bullets in the chamber, and it’s better to get 100 high quality bullets, than 100 high quality and 20 bad ones”. So why FIP as a predictor, rather than ERA as a outcome? Because I don’t know about the meatball that Sonny Gray never served up for a grand slam or the complete game shutout he never pitched, because Baldelli had a quick hook. FIP is the best predictor I have.

If we want to know what would happen if we made a change, that’s a prediction and FIP fits better.

I’m a goat, I’m covered in hair. Thanks for asking

Mahle and Maeda are both coming back from injury, Sonny Gray pitches 120 innings per year on average, and Joe Ryan pitched a personal record 147 innings last year…. I bet the cumulative long man innings exceed Maeda’s and maybe Mahle too

It’s absolutely the place to be critical. Just because I support the manager in his general use of the bullpen doesn’t mean I agree with all of his moves. He started the season handed a bad pitching staff, and the trades backfired with injury (Paddack and Mahle). For instance. I think Rocco/FO should have played the St Paul shuttle on long relief/piggy backing to not blow out the bullpen. Rocco never really had that as an option, but I don’t really know how the dynamic works and Rocco’s ability to lobby.

Name IP ERA FIP Caleb Thielbar 59.1 3.49 2.42 Jhoan Duran 67.2 1.86 2.52 Griffin Jax 72.1 3.36 3.17 Jovani Moran 40.2 2.21 1.78 Trevor Megill 45.0 4.80 3.29 Emilio Pagan 63.0 4.43 4.21 Tyler Duffey 44.0 4.91 4.79 331.5 3.58 3.16857142857143 we don’t know how Gray would have pitched if he wasn’t pulled, but… The Twins had 7 relievers pitch 40 innings last year. The average ERA for those 7 pitchers was 3.58, compared to Gray’s 3.08 ‘22, 3.56 ERA career, 4.19 ‘21. the bullpen had on average 3.17 FIP compared to Gray’s 3.4/3.67/3.99. FIP is the best predictor of ERA (better than ERA) and so I’d still stick with the bullpen was the right choice.

Besides the metrics that show Bundy and Archer were two of the worst pitchers in the MLB last year 1) Joe Ryan pitched 147 innings, that was a record for him in his professional career 2) Sonny Gray 119.2 innings last year. He had a 3.08 ERA last year compared to 3.56 career, 4.19 2021. Last year he had 3.4 FIP, compared to 3.67 career, 3.99 2021. He’s pitched 1,192 innings in his 10 year career. Drum roll please….. that’s 119.2 innings per season. I’d say the Twins managed Gray’s innings pretty well, and stretched Ryan where it made sense.