Chembry

I am guessing you didn’t read Law’s rationale. The only reason they are ranked low is health, not talent. His rationale is valid, but we are not devoid of talent. Here is a quote from the ranking: "The Twins would be much higher if they could just keep their best guys healthy. Two of their top three prospects have missed time every year with injuries, but I still see so much offensive potential in Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez that I just can’t quit them." Link to article: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6998285/2026/01/29/top-farm-systems-mlb-brewers-dodgers-mariners/?source=athletic_thewindup_newsletter&campaign=16602299&userId=28424238 ESPN has the system ranked 8th. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/47684217/2026-mlb-prospect-rankings-farm-systems-kiley-mcdaniel-brewers-guardians-pirates-dodgers-mets

The deal became official January 23rd.

Wondering if this is fallout from the deadline fire sale.

The timing of this is definitely odd...

I also believe, in general, the Twins treat their players well. I will add some detail that I don't think many know. It was Pressly who reached out to the Twins to see if he could help out in a player development role in the bullpen. The Twins didn't reach out to Pressly. Pressly played 6.5 years in Houston and from Dallas area. One would think if he wanted to get into coaching/player development, Houston would be the logical fit, but he chose the Twins. This was stated on a recent Gleeman and the Geek episode.

John Coppolella is a former GM of the Braves. He wrote a fantastic article on the Tarik Skubal situation for Baseball America. If you are interested in the inner workings and why this case is important, not only for the Tigers but the future of Skenes or any other pitcher of that caliber, it's definitely worth the read. I will be following this case closely. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/inside-what-goes-on-in-mlb-arbitration-hearings-how-tarik-skubals-negotiation-might-unfold/

Here is his prospect savant profile: On top of what @tony&rodney said, his power is real. Max exit velocity of 113.8 MPH at 18/19 years old is pretty crazy. A better predictor of power is 90th% EV and Tait's is still 105.9 mph. If you want to compare he has posted a higher max EV and 90th% EV than Walker Jenkins. The thought is that will translate into HR power as he ages.

There are a few that note that stat, but it's putting quite a bit of optimism in 49 PA. Especially since his previous 460 were abysmal.

Law also stated that health is the only reason they are that low. Here is a direct quote from his rankings: "The Twins would be much higher if they could just keep their best guys healthy. Two of their top three prospects have missed time every year with injuries, but I still see so much offensive potential in Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez that I just can’t quit them."

Exactly! The landscape is changing all the time. Next week, any of the other 29 MLB teams may have an injury to their primary C or one of their SP. They may come asking the Twins for Jeffers or Ryan/Lopez with a trade package that changes the Twins mind. Ha-Seong Kim was back in Korea, slipped on some ice and tore a tendon in his right middle finger. He had surgery to repair and now is out until June. I believe this is exactly what happened when the Twins traded Varland. I don't think the Twins had any intention of trading Varland. Cory Provus gave some color commentary a few days after the deadline and said that the Blue Jays had been trying to acquire Varland for a few years. They really like Varland. When the Blue Jays came back with a package of Rojas (who the Twins really like) and Roden (who has crushed AAA), the Twins said yes. The question starts at the 4 minute timepoint:

That trade is horrible...SD has the worst farm system in baseball. They only have 1 prospect in the top 100 via MLB pipeline (Schoolcraft) and ESPN (Salas), and zero in BA's top 100. The proposed trade calls the return a "haul" for the Twins... Basically, it's trading Ryan and Buxton to SD for Nick Pavetta. Pavetta still has 4 years and $55M remaining. The top prospect they are sending back is Humberto Cruz. Cruz pitched 40 innings between 2 levels (rookie and A) and got beat up pretty bad (0-7, 7.20 ERA, 1.50 WHIP). I don't see how that is a haul and how that benefits the Twins in anyway. If you or anyone else is interested, Bleacher Report put out some mock trades yesterday. Both Buxton and Ryan are included. I would say the packages are much more respectable. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25369823-fresh-mlb-trade-packages-top-10-rumored-targets

The only knock Law pointed out was the ability to stay healthy. That is the major reason they are ranked so low. Here is a quote from the ranking: "The Twins would be much higher if they could just keep their best guys healthy. Two of their top three prospects have missed time every year with injuries, but I still see so much offensive potential in Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez that I just can’t quit them." Link to article: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6998285/2026/01/29/top-farm-systems-mlb-brewers-dodgers-mariners/?source=athletic_thewindup_newsletter&campaign=16602299&userId=28424238

Spencer Jones should be a hard pass as part of any return the Yankees could give the Twins. Yes, the power is real, but so are the K's. They have climbed significantly as he has ascended through the minors. A (22g): 19% A+ (100g): 29% AA: (190g): 35% AAA (67g): 37% That's not automatically going to improve in the jump to MLB and will more than likely head north of 40%. Even with a 37% K rate at AAA, he posted respectable numbers (.274/.342/.897/19 HR/19 SB). It's just really hard to see how that will translate into success at MLB.

Jenkins (5) Rodriguez (57) Culpepper (74) Prielipp (94) https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2026-top-100-prospects/

Not opening day, but called up within the first two weeks of opening day: https://www.mlb.com/news/prospect-promotion-incentive-faq MLB Pipeline published their list last Friday. Four are in the top 100: Jenkins (14), Culpepper (52), Tait (65), Rodriguez (74) https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects

Agreed with everything you said. However, Larnach is only in Arb2 and not a UFA until 2028.

I asked the question in the daily MLBTR chat session. Yes, Ryan would go back to arbitration if the mutual option is declined. Well arbitration eligible again. Pretty good news all around then.

I don't think it's all good news though. Appears as if 2027 is a mutual option, which is rarely exercised. I'm not exactly clear on the rules for this type of mutual option. It would technically be his last year of arbitration. Does he go back to arbitration if the mutual option is declined?

Twins avoid arbitration with Ryan

The one contract Houston is looking to offload is Christian Walker. He still has 2 years left and $40M remaining.

I don’t get the moves either. I’m not real high on Ohl, but he was ok when the Twins used him in single inning relief appearances. I don’t think he was ever going to be a high leverage guy, but a decent depth piece if kept to single inning relief appearances. I feel pretty confident that he will get claimed by another team. I am a bit more puzzled about Pereda. He still has an option remaining and he could be stashed at AAA as depth. I don’t think the Twins would have made this move if they intended on moving Jeffers. If they do DFA Jackson, which I fully expect, there is no guarantee he gets through waivers. What is even more puzzling is holding on to Julien. He is out of options and has no place to play. Right now, it’s really a waste of a 40 man spot, unless they think they can trade him for something (unlikely in my opinion). While I agree Outman should be DFAd, I don’t think they will do that until they get another look in spring training. He will probably get a longer look while Buxton is playing in the WBC. I will be paying close attention to how they use Outman while Buxton is away. I am keeping my fingers crossed, but hoping Michael A Taylor can improve Martin and Roden’s defense in CF so we don’t have to suffer through Outman’s 40% k rate anymore.

Twins DFA’d Pierson Ohl, and Johnny Pereda today to make room for Caratini and Rogers.

I agree it's a weird move...and I don't think the talks got that serious based on the reporting. But if the Twins were inquiring, they must have been willing to foot the $8M price tag. Who knows if they were trying to unload salary (i.e. Larnach). That may also mean that they have more money to spend. That means the Twins are still trying to upgrade the roster. That is my biggest takeaway from the piece.

It's an interesting development. Here is the quote from the MLBTR article: " Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Twins were among the teams to show some late interest in now-former Brewers ace Freddy Peralta before Milwaukee traded him to the Mets. Given Peralta’s status as a one-year rental, it’s clearly a surprising fit. The Twins have made some relatively small additions but don’t stand as a clear contender, even in a perennially weak AL Central division. That said, Peralta’s $8MM salary would fit into even their stripped-down budget, and the Twins have a plethora of MLB-ready young arms as well as a glut of young outfielders who have either already made their MLB debut or are on the cusp of MLB readiness. Acquiring Peralta would’ve boosted their chances in the Central. Peralta could’ve been shopped again at the deadline had the season not gone their way, and he’s a clear qualifying offer recipient who’d net a team a compensatory pick upon rejecting. It’s not clear how aggressively Minnesota pursued the idea, but it’s of at least minor note that they even looked into the possibility. The trade market has been largely picked over, particularly with MacKenzie Gore coming off the board in yesterday’s trade with the Rangers, but even faint Peralta interest suggests that the Twins could look into other moves on the buyers’ side of the trade spectrum." Link to article: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/twins-trade-rumors-freddy-peralta-brewers.html

I am sure you are right. MLBTR posted some notes on the Twins today and they reported that the Twins were discussing a Peralta trade with the Brewers...I was surprised. So maybe they were also in a bidding war with CHW on Dominguez...That same article also mentioned the Twins have been in conversations with several relievers as of late, so we could see at least one more addition relatively soon.