The Great Hambino

They still coulda, just needed to do some maneuvering with their second round pi - Oh. Nevermind. For real though, I liked Henderson a lot but they needed a guard. There's already been too much Skule and Rouse in our lives as is, and passing on Jackson would've meant even more of them. That would not have been ideal for Henderson or McCarthy or any of us

I think Falvey has a plan. I'm not sure I'd bet on it being a good plan, but I think he has a pretty good idea of what he'd do given various budgetary levels. Ownership, on the other hand ...

I don't know where this idea that $500MM in debt means they've lost $500MM all in the last 3 years comes from. Debt is not equivalent to operating losses. That is not what debt means. Look at this list of MLB franchise values and debt/value ratios. 28 teams carry some amount of debt on their books. That doesn't mean that 28 franchises lose money. The Dodgers are definitely not losing money and they have over $600MM of debt ($6.9B valuation with a 9% debt/value ratio) on the books according to this. (This list puts the Twins at $420MM for what it's worth.) The Twins certainly didn't start out with zero debt three years ago. If they were carrying a normal amount of debt pre-COVID, then took on some debt to keep cash flow going during COVID, then borrowed some more to renovate Target Field, and never paid down the principal since it was the cheapest debt they could get in the Pohlad Companies portfolio ... they're still probably not up to $500MM, but they're well on their way to it without accounting for any operating losses. The balance of that is likely other Pohlad Company debt, sure. But by no means all of it. You can have an operating profit and still carry debt. You can have operating losses that don't result in debt incurred. Capital expenditures, cash flow variances, equity contributions/distributions, even accounting method variances can cause debt to increase or decrease independent of operating income/loss. But for the sake of argument, let's say it's all Pohlad Companies debt. (It's not, but at least some of it likely is.) In practice, this would happen by the Twins taking out debt, then pulling cash out of the Twins and putting into some other company that needs it. By taking the limited partners investment, it wipes out the debt but doesn't change the fact that those other Pohlad Companies still need cash. To the Pohlads, the Twins are just another Pohlad company in the portfolio. So they still need to get cash from the Twins to their other companies, only now can't take on more debt. So they have to fund it with profits. The Pohlads can do whatever they want with their portion of the profits as long as the limited partners get their cut. But this means they have to turn more of a profit, and they have to do it immediately. And the quickest way to to that is cutting payroll and hoping for a new landscape post-CBA.

They've also never sold as aggressively at the trade deadline as they did this last year, including 3 high leverage bullpen options with multiple years of control. Have they ever traded anyone with more than 1 year plus the remainder of the season of control for prospects at a trade deadline? To clarify, this wouldn't include Berrios or Pressly and their 1 year of control beyond the season in which they were traded. They've also never agreed to pay someone $33MM to not play here while getting almost literally nothing in return. They've also never put the team on the market during Falvey's tenure. They've also never brought in limited partners to get out from under a mountain of debt. They're doing plenty of things they've never done before. They're already in uncharted territory. I don't think "they won't cuz they haven't" really holds up.

What if this is how we learn that he's been left-handed this entire time? Get ready for JJ to unleash hell!

I never claimed anything close to saying that they were $500M in the operating hole to create the debt. Capital improvements at Target Field are a not insignificant part of that number that doesn't factor into their operating income, and almost all teams carry some level of debt on their books. There's a level of debt that is responsible to carry on the books of a healthy business as it improves cash flow and accelerates investment. But they did exactly what you suggest in increasing their payroll over their usual levels with Correa, Donaldson, Lopez, etc and that did not translate into huge profits, if there were any profits at all. They tried it and it didn't work. Regarding the rest of their portfolio: if their other businesses are suffering to a degree that required leveraging the baseball team into the spot they're in (which I think is true to a certain degree), then this cash infusion the Twins received isn't solving those problems. It's a temporary patch, not a cure. Their commercial real estate portfolio is just as sickly as it was before the limited partners' capital infusion. Given that, they're not going to start pouring money into the baseball team just to have to turn around and leverage it to support their other businesses again, especially since it's not just their money anymore. And if the limited partners thought the Pohlads were going to continue to use the Twins as a piggybank to keep their other businesses afloat, they wouldn't be investing in the first place. You're right, the limited partners don't want to invest in their commercial real estate, but they might as well be if they're going to continue to use the Twins in this way. You can't separate the Twins franchise from the Pohlad's other businesses if they're still using one to prop up the other. So profitability is a must, and that is guaranteed by slashing payroll short term Think about this: if they really do intend to go right back to the payroll levels they've been at, then why are they being so coy about it? They need a PR win in the worst way, and I'm sure they can see how season ticket renewals are going (I can't imagine they're doing gangbusters right now). Per Gleeman, around 80% of ticket sales for the year take place before the season starts. They'd have no reason not to be out front with it, unless there's some uncertainty around limited partner approval, which would open up a whole new set of problems. Either way, I see no evidence beyond wishful thinking that the payroll will be anywhere near recent levels, at least in the short term. I hope I'm wrong because I want them to win.

Well, they've apparently been losing money while trying to be a continual competitor in the postseason already for the last half decade. If that was working, they wouldn't have brought in limited partners in the first place. It's possible these limited partners threw a bunch of money at them and said "keep doing what you're doing!" but I just don't think that's likely. Anything they're saving in debt service now potentially has to be paid out as a return on limited partner investments, so I don't see some massive cash influx coming in that way. Long term, there is certainly more upside to be a continual contender. But short term it is a risk. They could very easily lose money if things don't work out. Going Nutting on the operation guarantees a positive return. Putting myself in the shoes of a limited partner, I see the potential for a very big return in the form of appreciation in the value of my investment if the CBA and resulting media deals break favorably for small/mid market teams. Appreciating franchise value is the most attractive aspect to owning a sports franchise from an investment perspective. But that is also not a guarantee to materialize. So in the meantime, I want my guaranteed return now until the landscape potentially shifts in a couple years

They've also never in their ownership history taken on limited partners in order to service the debt they've accumulated. History can be a good reference point, but I think we might already be in uncharted territory here. Any opinions optimistic, pessimistic, or somewhere in the middle are going to remain purely speculative until we see them in action, but I don't think the limited partners are investing without an expectation of a return on their investment. And in a business venture like this with some degree of fixed revenue (they get their national broadcast revenue even if they go 0-162), the quickest path to getting that return is cutting costs, at least in the short-term

Apparently he hit his hand on the follow through of one of the throws into the end zone last week. The soundbites I heard from KOC downplayed it and made it sound like he isn't at risk of missing the game.

And there's the rub ... the longer we go with this uncertainty regarding the limited partners and the ultimate budget for the offseason, the more pessimistic the outlook for the budget becomes. We're not quite to the point in the offseason where this uncertainty almost certainly drives them toward a more cautious, budget-conscious path. But that point is coming up pretty quick. It' not ideal if they have to finalize tender/nontender decisions without having the ownership situation resolved, and if the owners meetings come and go without limited partner approval, then it gets really dicey

Weaponizing expedited review against false starts would go a long way toward officiating this play properly. It's apparent immediately, and they have a window of time to look at it as players untangle themselves from the scrum

To me he looked exhausted, especially toward the end. Even subbed himself out on the final drive. Just looked off all day to me, I wouldn't be surprised if it came out later that he was battling an illness or something. 4 catches on 12 targets. Some of those were definitely on McCarthy (2 point conversion, for example) but definitely not all of them. Some of those a receiver of his caliber just needs to make. The post at the goal line needs to be caught. You can't just fall down one on one going deep (on no planet was that PI, he just fell). JJ operated the 2 min drill like it was under college timing rules. The first run was a fine play. The other one and throws underneath over the middle were not.

I'm gonna have to start wine tasting now. I'll pass on the walking

Is it just me or has this ref been saying personal foul instead of false start?

In addition to having converted from starter to reliever, his background with having experience with several different roles as a reliever - closer, set up, lower leverage, etc - should give him a chance to provide firsthand experience in helping guys out with those roles. That can't hurt

Eric Wilson blowing up that monster fullback on an iso makes my 2008 football sensibilities very happy

Sheesh, tell us how you really feel, Rum Bunter: "Pirates fans eventually realized that Shelton’s greatest flaw wasn’t strategy, but rather accountability. Under his leadership, poor fundamentals, base running blunders and defensive lapses became routine. He rarely called out mistakes publicly or benched repeat offenders. It created a culture where mediocrity festered. Even talented players stagnated because the standard never rose. For a Twins club that prides itself on development and discipline, this could be a rude awakening." That all sure sounds pretty familiar, doesn't it? Hopefully these were the things he was reflecting on during his micro-sabbatical.

Agreed - a good trait for any bullpen coach to have, but especially with the amount of starters soon to be transitioning to relievers the Twins are likely to be working with in 2026

Man alive, Falvey has a giant head. He looks like wouldn't be out of place on Easter Island. Good thing, too. He needs all the space he can get for that galaxy brain of his. Also, I loved Shelton as Boris the Blade in Snatch. Now there's a guy who knew how to get things done

As an extension to the Tigers/Skubal situation, I wonder if there's a world where the Tigers could trade Skubal and turn around and trade for Ryan. Ryan isn't Skubal, but it could be a way for them to thread the needle of remaining competitive in their open window while not allowing Skubal out the door for only a comp pick in return. I don't know exactly how much the extra year of control Ryan carries would translate for value purpoeses, but the Tigers probably net out positively in terms of prospects in that kind of sequence of events. If Skubal is made available, then lots of teams will be interested. Only one of them will get him though, and all those other teams plus the Tigers could potentially turn their interest toward Ryan

The bolded portion of the quote also stuck out to me (I didn't listen to the whole thing beginning to end but did catch this passage), but for a very different reason. This was the first time this offseason that there has been an indication from someone in leadership (owner, FO, manager) that there is some semi-concrete idea of how they were going to proceed going forward. Before it was "we expect/hope" to retain certain players or they "need to consult with the limited partners" or whatever vague platitude they put in its place. Now, this quote tells me a few things: 1. A general plan actually exists. I highly doubt hearing more complete unknowns made Shelton really want this job. 2. Something about the plan works in Shelton's favor. That could be increased investment and an intent to be competitive right away. However, it just as easily (more easily, IMO) could be an indication that he isn't going to be judged on the W/L record in the short-term and has the job security that would come along with that; that a more extended rebuild is coming. Maybe he's excited to be able work with younger players on a timetable that doesn't require immediate success. So we know there's some sort of plan, and that Shelton is on board with it. So why do I think this means a longer rebuild is upcoming as opposed to immediate investment? That leads me to point 3: 3. If they know the general direction they're going to be taking ... why would they continue to be so evasive about it if it was something that fans would see as a positive? Fan morale is at its lowest since probably the contraction saga, and I'm sure they've noticed it with their 2026 season ticket/MyTwins membership sales. Fans are dying for positive news. The team is dying for something that could be used to sell some tickets. They'd have no reason to withhold that plan if it was something they thought fans would want to hear. Pairing this info with the rest of their messaging they've put out since the trade deadline makes me see a window of contention that does not open in 2026. I'm guessing we won't be getting confirmation either way until the winter meetings, but I'm preparing myself for this.

I'm still trying to understand why familiarity was such an important trait in a potential manager for an organization that needs a complete change in voice and direction

To be honest, I'm not exactly sure what some were expecting from him, especially with Falvey staring at him from like 18 inches away as he answered every question. Were we really expecting rogue honesty? That's not very realistic. Though it was funny that most of the questions were clearly questions for Falvey/ownership. I'm pretty sure Shelton isn't the one dictating payroll level and deciding which starting pitchers to trade. There was one interesting point he made buried within all the scripted Falvey-approved gobbledygook. When talking about player development, he talked about how elite high school prospects are being funneled more and more into these showcase-type events where the emphasis is on talent and skills and not on in-game fundamentals like proper baserunning, defensive rotations, etc. It's something that has been going on for some time in basketball with the proliferation of AAU and all-star competitions, but I hadn't thought about how much it's happening in baseball now too. Paraphrasing here, he said when a player comes up to the majors now, you can't assume they know those things. If there's any positive to be taken from the press conference, I think it was that passage. Plus, we (or at least I) got confirmation that Jeremy Zoll is a real live person and not just Falvey's imaginary friend

That was a refreshingly competent half of football

For Falvey: What made familiarity such an important criterion in your search given this team has missed the playoffs in four of the last five seasons?