I'm not sure I'm ready to dive into the deep end of this pool quite just yet ... but the Texans trade was weird at the time and seems even weirder now.
There's a reason most trades of picks (not vet for a pick, I'm talking a straight up pick swap) happen during the draft right before the pick gets made. Usually, the team trading down is on the clock when the trade is made official. This is because the team trading up needs to know that the player they're targeting is actually available.
But the Texans trade happened in March. It didn't really make sense in a vacuum; something else must've fallen apart. A move for Maye does seem like the most plausible next step, but that - or whatever else it was - obviously didn't materialize. Then on draft night, they traded up targeting Turner specifically, like a team usually would. I don't blame them - at the time, he was neck-and-neck with Jared Verse for my favorite defensive player in the draft. In hindsight, that's not looking like too hot a choice, but at least that one did make sense in a vacuum.
You generally are paying a premium when you trade up because you think your target is worth it. But the way it ended up working out, Kwesi effectively paid the premium twice to end up with Turner. There's no way that was the actual plan; Plan A had to have fallen through, and it feels like they've been scrambling to make up for it ever since. That offseason had been going great in terms of player acquisition before the draft, but we might look back on that chain of trades as an inflection point; acquisitions haven't really been going to plan ever since. The 2025 free agent crop has not been receiving passing marks, and while the 2025 draft is obviously too early to tell, I don't think anyone would say that the crop has blown expectations out of the water.
I don't think they're doomed. The NFL cap is a funny thing. The Vikings looked doomed on that front post-Cousins, but they didn't fall apart. The Saints turned finding cap space out of thin air into an art form (they might be paying for that now, but they extended a semi-competitive window way further than it seemed like they could). But they're back to having to thread that needle all over again. They have options - there are currently six guys that could generate eight-figure cap savings with a post-June 1 cut next season (O'Neill, Greenard, Hockenson, Van Ginkel, Hargrave, Kelly). They obviously won't cut all of them, and some could be painful, but they're not doomed.
Unless JJ isn't the guy. Then they're screwed. No pressure kid!