The Great Hambino

How does the Holy Roller rule where another player can't advance a fumble on 4th down/inside 2 minutes not also apply on conversions? I bet it will next year

In hindsight, maybe it should've been more telling that the Astros went to Jim and not Joe to get the Correa trade going

The Rams are his kryptonite

I'd be curious what the effect of OAA/DRS/etc has been on their second basemen as they've moved their first basemen closer to the line. Regardless of where they're put, you have 4 guys to defend the infield. Shortening the range required for one means you're asking more from another. So any gains made by the first basemen should be netted against any losses by the second basemen created by asking him to cover more ground by default. I'm not saying it's a bad strategy - it makes sense to have guys with limited range cover less ground and guys with more range cover more ground, and the point someone made that balls down the line being more likely to be extra base hits is valid - but the effect this puts on second basemen shouldn't be ignored. They certainly haven't been churning out gold glove second basemen going this route

What can Tom do relatively quickly to show there's a change? He can start by not following the exact same strategy of making marginal additions to a deeply flawed roster in hopes it results in a legitimately competitive team, which is what they've done for the past two years. For all his talk of "we can't keep doing the same things and expect a different result," every indication based on the moves they've made thus far and what Falvey has stated the free agent budget to be is that they are, in fact, using the exact same strategy. And based on Tom's quotes and the supposed timeline of Joe getting pushed out (a month ago), this is Tom's strategy, or at least one he's agreeing to go along with. They are not a Pete Fairbanks away from having a competitive bullpen (no one currently on the roster is worthy of a top 3 slot in a competitive bullpen - not yet, anyway). They're not signing O'Hearn (which I wouldn't hate in a vacuum) on top of Bell with the budget they have and all their other needs. They are not set up to be competitive with a $115MM payroll and the current make-up of the roster. Before someone brings up the Brewers, that roster was balanced perfectly. They were above-average in just about everything. The Twins as currently constructed are ... not. That would leave two options - well, three options, but it's probably too late in the offseason to can Falvey at this point - to demonstrate change. 1. Crank up the investment in the roster if you insist that you can be competitive while you still have control of Lopez/Ryan. At a bare minimum, that means restoring payroll to at least the level of last year so you can demonstrate that the Correa savings actually are being reinvested into the roster. That would go a long way toward showing fans that it really was a baseball move and not a cost-cutting one. This path would be more fun, but probably not fiscally realistic at this time. Plus, the flaws in the roster might be too significant for even that level of investment to overcome, and a failure of this strategy would put them in the worst possible position when Lopez/Ryan/etc are gone. Which leaves: 2. Start the rebuild for real. Move your most valuable assets and target 2028 for real competition. Surely this would disappoint some fans, but just as many would see this as a path toward actual competitiveness; a sign that we're finally getting off the hamster wheel and making moves with an actual championship window in mind. You can still do all the fan engagement stuff you mentioned. If you're targeting kids to fill the seats (which I agree you should be), they're not going to be turned off because they won 65 games instead of 72. But they will be able to start to identify with the young players that would be the core of a team that's ready to rock in two years. Now compare that hypothetical roster - one that's been supplemented with the returns from the trades of your valuable assets, plus the truly impactful free agents they'd be able to afford - to whatever would be in place after another couple failed runs at mediocrity. The difference is night and day. That's my realistic/pessimistic (depending on your point of view) take. If you truly believe that they can be legitimately competitive (not outside-shot-at-the-third-wild-card competitive) with this roster and budget, then I think we're in "agree to disagree" territory

On Gleeman's podcast, he went into further detail about Tom's answers to some of the questions posed. Tom mentioned that the change in power was more or less agreed upon a month ago. That would mean that Tom is on board with all the actions they've taken so far this offseason. It would also mean that when Falvey suggested they have about $20MM to spend in free agency at the winter meetings, this was coming from Tom. It was also mentioned that Tom really thinks the Twins can compete this year. That means they're sitting on their valuable assets and making small additions at the margins (Bell, for example) and expecting to compete that way. In other words, they're going to operate the exact same way with the same core (minus Correa) they have the last two seasons, only now they don't have a bullpen. In other words, nothing is changing. If I wanted to try to spin this as a positive, I suppose I could guess that Tom is giving Falvey one final chance to show that his plan can work. And when it inevitably doesn't, he'll clean house. But that's just wasting another year on mediocrity, eroding the value of those valuable assets, and doing nothing to pull fan morale out of its current tailspin. He can say whatever he wants. His actions thus far suggest nothing is changing in how they operate. The more I hear from him, the more discouraged I become.

I get what you're saying, but I think that issue will resolve itself. Teams aren't going to differentiate their offers with price since he's guaranteed his salary by the Dolphins no matter what. So he'll get to choose the environment he wants the most. If being a clear #2 to a younger guy isn't something that interests him, then he'll simply choose someone else that will give him a cleaner path to starting. As you said earlier, he matches up with the Raiders pretty well

Here's another Tom quote from Gleeman's article. He's speaking in reference to retaining Buxton/Lopez/Ryan “We owe the fan base something. We owe our veteran and star players something. And we owe this organization something. And that something is hope. And I think that’s the needle we’re trying to thread.” So he's saying that simply retaining what was already on hand in a season of disappointment and cratering attendance qualifies as providing the hope they "owe the fan base." That is depressing and insulting Tom clearly bought Falvey's line that they can legitimately compete this year. (Or he very foolishly thinks that being this year's Reds - sneak in as a 6 seed, immediately become cannon fodder - will generate the same rejuvenation of the fanbase that 2019 or 2023 did). There better be real consequences if they don't. Because they're reducing the potential quality of their organization from 2028 onward to follow this pie-in-the-sky wishful path.

The only appeal to me is that if he gets cut, whoever signs him only has to pay the minimum while the Dolphins would foot the balance of his guaranteed salary. At least that's my understanding based on the Russell Wilson-Broncos experience. So it would be veteran quasi-competence basically for free. If JJ takes some meaningful steps forward this offseason, he might not see the field much. And if JJ doesn't, they're screwed anyway

So it seems like the difference between Joe and Tom is that when Tom insults our intelligence, he'll do so more directly. I guess that's technically progress

WTF? That's basically the dictionary definition of a half-measure.

This is like the lamest episode of "Succession" ever

I like the part where he justifies the fire sale as being done with a "long-term competitive horizon in mind", but they still think they can compete this year so they're sitting on their most valuable assets, and they addressed their stated need for "right-handed thump" by blowing a third of their apparent free agency budget on a switch-hitting 1B that can neither hit from the right side nor field, and they still don't have a bullpen

The following passage was sent out to season ticket holders this morning. Enjoy Tom's take on the Pohlad family delicacy: the Word Salad As we welcome our limited partners and begin moving the Minnesota Twins forward in new and meaningful ways, I want to speak to you, our fans, directly. The last two years have brought uncertainty, frustration and disappointment. You are the heartbeat of this team, and you deserve a product on the field that reflects your level of passion and commitment to the Twins. You also deserve clarity, consistency, and accountability—especially when expectations are not met. We recognize we need to earn back your trust, and we intend to do so through our actions and our decisions moving forward. As part of this transition, I will assume the role of Principal Owner. My promise to you and all Twins fans is to lead with accountability, strategic curiosity, clarity of vision, and a relentless focus on winning. These values will guide every decision we make as we shape the future of this organization. I want to address the difficult roster decisions made at last year’s trade deadline. They were the result of an honest assessment that our team, as constructed, was not consistently winning at a high enough level. If our aspiration is truly to build a team capable of winning the World Series—not simply contending for a division title—then we must make decisions with a long-term competitive horizon in mind. These changes, while tough, strengthen our foundation and better position us for sustained success. Our top focus is on building a championship-caliber organization. I also recognize that your time at Target Field matters—and enhancing your fan experience will remain a key focus. From the atmosphere in the ballpark, to the service you receive, to the energy we create together, we are committed to making every visit special. Target Field is one of the very best ballparks in baseball because of you, and we intend to make it an even more exceptional place to watch the Twins and gather as a community. In the months ahead, I look forward to sharing more about our direction and listening closely to what you expect from us. Your voice matters, and your passion will continue to shape the standards we hold ourselves to—on and off the field. Thank you for continuing to stand with us—through joys and disappointments, through transition and growth, and now into a future filled with purpose and promise. Our players inspire us, but you give us purpose. Tom Pohlad Executive Chair Minnesota Twins

So are the Dolphins gonna take their medicine and cap hit a la the Broncos with Russell Wilson? Or do they let whomever the new GM and (likely) coach decide if Tua is worth fixing? That's a lot of dead money. And just like with Wilson, the team that picks up Tua could have him for basically nothing if he gets cut. Maybe a team that needs a vet floor stabilizer to pair with their volatile young QB while looking for cap savings anywhere they can get it? Would that be potentially worthwhile?

It would also depend on if you count the mutual option buyout as part of this year or next year. Speaking of technicalities, Carlos Correa will be their third highest-paid player

This deal would clear the debt if it goes through, but it doesn't address any of the reasons that caused the debt to balloon in the first place. Excuse me for not taking victory laps over an arrangement where the only effective change to the decision-making process is putting another Pohlad grandson in charge

This signing makes more sense to me if Larnach isn't around. It would be tough for Bell to spell Clemens at 1B against lefties while also spelling Larnach at DH against lefties For me, the negative feelings about this signing stem from what it represents moreso than the move itself. A move like this represents tripling down on the same fringe-contention middle ground strategy that has failed the last two seasons. This team has no realistic chance of competing without like a dozen coin flips working out in their favor (the odds of winning 12 consecutive coin flips is about 0.02%, BTW) unless some real investment in the roster is made. That clearly isn't coming. But this also confirms that they're not willing to truly rebuild either. So instead of facing the reality that nuking your own bullpen moved your realistic contention window to a period outside the remaining control of Ryan/Lopez and acting accordingly to maximize their returns, they're placing yet another half-hearted bet on a deeply flawed roster that just delays the inevitable and reduces the eventual returns for whenever they do face the reality that we will have yet another uncompetitive September. So it's not about it being too expensive (it isn't) or taking away opportunities from players we need to learn more about at the major league level (at least he isn't a corner outfielder). It's continuing to try to thread an impossible needle. It's a continued inability to honestly assess your own roster. It's choosing the path that is the worst of both worlds

It's also just the realities of roster size. Take out a starting and backup catcher, you have 11 roster slots to cover 7 defensive positions plus a DH. Unless you have good defense up the middle or elite defense in a corner, you're probably going to need to be able to cover multiple positions, especially if there's a platoon or two, in order to put out your best lineup given injuries, slumps, occasional rest, etc

My three year old a couple of weeks ago came up to me out of nowhere the morning before a game and said "The Vikings are gonna lose Dad." She was right

I like referring to that Forbes list. It's more than likely not gospel, but a heck of a lot more reliable than any other comprehensive list I've seen. The number that really sticks out to me for the Twins is the debt/value ratio. At 28% (which, at the $1.5B valuation, suggests about $420M of debt), it's the second-highest in the league other than the Marlins, whose figure is skewed by a super-low franchise valuation. For frame of reference, Cleveland is at 7%, Milwaukee 15%, KC 21%, Pittsburgh 11%. Detroit has nearly identical revenue and franchise valuation figures as the Twins, but debt/value of only 10%. So some way or another, the teams most similar to the Twins have found ways to operate without compiling nearly as much debt. Based on their payroll rankings, I find it very hard to believe that the difference is all, or even mostly due to spending too much on players. I also really find it hard to believe that MLB would allow teams to explicitly borrow against the team to fund other business interests. A more likely scenario would involve the Twins over time funding outside interests indirectly by paying off as little of their debt as they can get away with so that more cash is available for other purposes. Kind of a backdoor way to lever up the team for outside purposes. And at some point in the recent past, they stopped being able to get away with it. I'd be very curious to see how these figures have changed over time.

Makes you wonder what it would take for them to flex the Cowboys out of primetime

I gave it another watch today. Not as funny as I had remembered but still pretty enjoyable. A lot will depend on how much you enjoy the juxtaposition of cheery musical numbers with cartoonishly gory zombie violence. It's (Shaun of the Dead - 20% humor) + (High School Musical - 40% lameness) + Christmas

I did a quick once-over of the first rounds (excluding comp rounds) from the 2015-2019 drafts, figuring that anyone that was going to get to MLB would have probably debuted by now, and I didn't feel like doing more than five years. In that time, 23 picks were labeled a shortstop. By my rough count, 15 of them were eventually moved off of shortstop either in the minors or the majors. And there's some quality players in that group too, including Alex Bregman, Brice Turang, Nico Hoerner, and Bryson Stott (also, some guy named Royce). And that's just the first round, where I'd figure you see more elite talent that's more likely to stick at short than in later rounds. In that same time period, there were a grand total of two players taken with the label of second basemen. There's a decent argument to be made that they should just be labeled infielder or middle infielder for draft purposes. Any hand-wringing over taking too many shortstops is pointless. Anyone with a middle infielder-type profile with the talent to be a high draft pick is very likely the best player on their team at the college or high school level, and shortstop is where amateur coaches put their best (right-handed) players. The same way most outfielders were likely their high school team's center fielder. They're not moving them over to second or third because they might not profile as a shortstop at the major league level

Of course he hits left-handed