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The Great Hambino

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Everything posted by The Great Hambino

  1. The Great Hambino
    I see two paths they could potentially go here if it's not Julien (cuz if it is Julien, what are we even doing here?): 1. Make a modest FA investment in a 1B to be the starter and make Clemens the backup 2. Make some low-wattage move like a minor league FA or a trade similar to the one just made for Orze to back up Clemens, ideally as a platoon partner Given the way they're operating and the amount of needs they need to cover with their limited resources, it would be pretty disappointing if they paid someone more than the minimum to back up Clemens A more unlikely move would be 3. convert an internal corner outfielder to first base to share time with Clemens, but this feels like something they already would've done by now if they were going to do it. Plus most of the potential candidates to make the switch - Wallner, Larnach, Mendez, Roden - bat lefthanded, which wouldn't platoon well with Clemens. Among non-corner outfielder internal options, Fedko an Sabato wouldn't be ready on opening day (and probably would've been added to the 40 man if they were in the running) and Gasper is ... yeah I have a feeling option 2 will be the way they go. But option 1 would be more fun
  2. The Great Hambino
    I don't see it as Falvey sending messages to ownership, more like sending messages to the public that it wasn't his desire to trade Lopez/Ryan if it eventually goes down. During the course of an up-and-down, largely disappointing tenure, he's managed to accumulate more power and responsibility. While seemingly everyone else around him got axed, he got promoted. If nothing else, Falvey has shown he knows how to maneuver his way around the C-suite. His messaging is intentional, even if not directed right at ownership
  3. The Great Hambino
    I'm going the other way: he can ONLY refer to himself by it from now on. He has to earn his Christian name back after going down the Russell "Mr Unlimited" Wilson cornball path. Giving yourself an alter ego is like giving yourself a tattoo: it's almost certainly a terrible idea, it takes a lot of time and pain to make it go away, and no one is going to let you forget that you did it even after you've gotten rid of it
  4. The Great Hambino
    Good point on Skubal. It's very possible that the starting pitcher trade market is on hold until teams know one way or the other if he's actually available. I know I'm not burning prospect capital on Ryan, Gore, etc if I think Skubal is a real possibility. That could buy the front office some time
  5. The Great Hambino
    It's hard to know what ownership will be willing to stomach if things go off the rails. They famously insisted on a competitive rebuild in the aftermath of the Zimmer era because they expect to be competing for the playoffs every year. So far so good in one sense, as they haven't been below 7 wins in a season since 2013. To me, it depends on what kind of timeline KAM & Co sold the Wilfs on for McCarthy's development. It's possible they get through the end of 2026 to make it work with him as that brings them to decision time for picking up his option. But if they really can't stomach this season if it really goes haywire, or if he hasn't hit whatever development benchmarks they're looking to see, then possible the McCarthy era gets cut short. I just don't know where they can go if it does. Next year's draft doesn't sound super awesome for QBs, and they'd likely have to burn more draft capital than we'd like in order to get one (for all their flaws, they still recently beat the Lions on the road; this team isn't bad enough to lose out to the point where they're comfortably in range of the first QBs off the board). But the cap situation next year doesn't shape up super well for bringing in a high-priced veteran, even with the mechanisms they have available to create some space. So to me, I think they're locked in on N9NE come hell or high water through next season
  6. The Great Hambino
    Out of curiosity, I looked up the timeline of the Rays recent sale being announced, then approved. From what I can gather, it was announced June 18 and approved September 23. The Pohlads announced the limited partners on August 13. Originally they said approval would happen at the end of the season. That obviously didn't happen. Going off the Rays approval timeline, they should be getting approved about now. Maybe they're waiting until the winter meetings since we're pretty close to them happening anyway. But the longer this goes, the greater the chance there's something holding up approval. Could be other owners not trusting the Twins' intentions as you outlined above. Could that one of the groups has a member with shaky finances. Could be one of the limited partner groups getting cold feet. Could be whatever's inside the mystery box. Whatever it is, I'm going to hold off until the winter meetings before panicking too much about it. It sure would've been nice to have this resolved before the offseason started, but it's not a huge issue yet. After the winter meetings? Start panicking.
  7. The Great Hambino
    Because the President of the Twins is saying he doesn't know what the budget is going to be, and Bonnes' reporting from his time at the GM meetings suggested that this is true. I'm saying IF this is true, and his hands are tied from making any big moves until he has some reasonable figure, then yes, ownership bears some fault in the situation. If he does actually know what the budget is and still more or less stays pat, then yes, it's all on him. Normally I don't think it would be plausible that a front office wouldn't know the budget at this stage of the offseason. But with the limited partner situation still in limbo, it's more plausible than it normally would be. Again, IF this is true, then it makes me start to question if the limited partner approval process may have hit a snag. That could certainly swing the budget quite a bit.
  8. The Great Hambino
    Yes it is. Whether you choose to acknowledge it or not, front offices operate on a budget, and the potential ranges of that budget for where the Twins sit could result in very different ideal courses of action. If we're in the apparent position where the offseason has kicked off and ownership is still keeping the front office in the dark as to what that budget is, then it absolutely is an indictment of ownership. That's not absolving Falvey of blame. That's where falling in love with his own internal development comes in. If he passes up on trades that could help the team because he sees a potential competitive unit already in-house, that's on him. And it's certainly possible (probable?) that he actually does know the budget and is just doing his usual linguistic salsa dance when asked about it. But to say that ownership has no responsibility for the direction this team takes this season just isn't true
  9. The Great Hambino
    With all the debate about whether the Twins should be trying to get competitive and add during the remaining Ryan/Lopez years vs using one or both of them as trade chips to fully commit to a true rebuild, this points things toward the dreaded door #3: effectively standing pat with only minor FA moves to throw a bandaid on gaping wounds like bullpen and backup catcher. Don't get better for the future while giving yourself no chance to compete in the present. The worst of both worlds. The unholy marriage of a front office that thinks way too highly of its own ability to develop internally and an ownership that can't/won't give their front office a direction.
  10. The Great Hambino
    I wonder where the Vikings D ranks in EPA per play while playing zone. It's gotta be bottom 5
  11. The Great Hambino
    Tell me more about your verbal voice Tom Brady
  12. The Great Hambino
    That missed facemask was Darnold-esque
  13. The Great Hambino
    Viola for Tapani, Aguilera etc. arguably turned out to be helpful for the hometown franchise
  14. The Great Hambino
    Additional finishes: Keaschall was 9th for ROY and Ryan was DNF for Cy Young (no votes received)
  15. The Great Hambino
    GameDay is in Pittsburgh today. Pat McAfee brought up Paul Skenes and it immediately triggered a giant "SELL THE TEAM" chant from the crowd. I don't think Nutting is super popular among the locals
  16. The Great Hambino
    For me, not communicating to the fans on this is kinda annoying but ultimately understandable. There's nothing to be gained by tipping your hand to other teams or by delivering bad news to fans before you have to. And I really don't think they're in a position to withhold good news. My issue is the apparent lack of communication with their own front office. The offseason is here. The GM meetings are going on and 40 man decisions are due in days. If Falvey truly doesn't know the direction they're going in, then it's putting them behind the market for no good reason. Yet another avoidable rake stepped on by this ownership group. It could be that Falvey knows but isn't willing/able to divulge the info yet. But again, they're not in a position to withhold good news from a fanbase desperate for anything resembling optimism. Either way, it looks to me like the forecast is grim
  17. The Great Hambino
    Any word on where Keaschall's arm recovery sits at this point in time. Because if it doesn't look great for the future, then I think he might be a better internal candidate to wind up at 1B over any of the current outfielders. I just can't get past the thought that if they thought Wallner and/or Larnach were good candidates to make that move, then they would've at least tried doing so already
  18. The Great Hambino
    The Curious Case of Matt Wallner makes me wish RBI were presented as a rate stat and not a counting stat. RBI opportunities are not distributed equally This is Wallner last year. 4 fewer RBI than average for his number of PAs ... but 41 fewer runners on base than average, including 28 fewer runners in scoring position than average. That's important context in trying to figure out why his RBI totals were lagging behind the rest of his statistical profile
  19. The Great Hambino
    I think I've found our disconnect. I've been following these developments way too closely for my own well-being, and at no point did I come across an article that claimed $500MM in losses. Everything I saw stated that as the debt balance on the books. If you saw articles claiming that number meant losses, then I can't dispute that. Although you should abandon those sources permanently as that's an absurd thing to put out there for a publication of any kind. So yes, I agree that there's no way the Twins could lose $500MM in three years. I'm just saying that's not what that number means. You get a thumbs up for quoting Ice-T
  20. The Great Hambino
    That's fair. Regarding the Pohlads caring/not caring, my read on the situation is that while most of the family doesn't care about the team (rumors out of Interlachen suggest this), Joe actually does. But he's just really incompetent. Wouldn't be the first time he ran a family business into the ground. I think Jim gave him some rope to run the team, then rapped him on the nose and forced him to pull back when he failed to see the writing on the wall and allowed that irresponsible budget in the face of their crumbling TV revenue. As a result, he's been under Jim's thumb ever since. After all, the Astros owner reached out to Jim - not Joe - to get the Correa deal done. Now Joe's trying to prove to the rest of the family that he's a Big Boy business man that can turn a profit. Cue the in-process course correction - maybe even overcorrection
  21. The Great Hambino
    I don't know how else to say this any more clearly: $500MM was the reported debt being carried on the books. It does not represent the sum of operating losses over the last few years. I have explained this in great detail several times over. If you're going to continue to choose to ignore this, then I don't think this needs to be discussed any further. I'm a CPA that works for a family office set up very similarly to the Pohlad companies (on a much much much MUCH much smaller scale, but still). This stuff is literally what I do for a living. Perhaps you should try a google search on the definition of debt.
  22. The Great Hambino
    Better question: why did the people in charge of the business side at that time - Pohlad and St Peter - allow them to add to payroll when they were facing the RSN model collapse? Falvey and Levine spent to the budget they were allowed by ownership and business ops. If that budget was irresponsible, then I can't put that on the baseball side of the operation. Correa's and Lopez's contracts don't happen without ownership approval. Diamond Sports Group was already in bankruptcy proceedings when those contracts were handed out. The business side can't claim they were blindsided by it. This is an instance where the business side failed the baseball side. Is it possible Falvey defied ownership in signing those contracts? Considering that Falvey was subsequently granted more power by ownership, I'm going to say that's highly unlikely. There's plenty of things that can be blamed on Falvey. The right-sizing mess isn't one of them for me.
  23. The Great Hambino
    They picked the wrong week to put so many of their precious pennies at risk. Do any Vegas casinos take rubles?
  24. The Great Hambino
    Supposedly one of the groups added some additional investors that required further league vetting But there's a nonzero chance that the Pohlads botched this deal and the limited partners no longer exist
  25. The Great Hambino
    Oh. No wonder the Bomba Squad flamed out in the playoffs
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