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Everything posted by The Great Hambino
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I totally get that Lopez and Ober were untradeable at the deadline. And that could bleed into this offseason if Pablo can't re-establish his health during the remainder of the season. For those two specifically (and anyone else that develops an injury), health has to be factored heavily in finding the right trade window. You touched on something that I hadn't been thinking of but definitely needs to be considered: how do teams viewing the potential of a lockout in the 26/27 offseason, and what does that do to the trade market up until that point? Will teams in a contention window be more motivated to add for 26 if they think 27 isn't there? On the other hand, will teams shy away from adding long-term assets if they are concerned about the lack of a 27 season or what the landscape looks like with a new CBA? I have no idea how that will play out. Should be very intersting/depressing
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All bets are off if a new owner takes control, but it doesn't seem like they weren't interested in moving Ryan at the deadline. Seems like they either held the line on their price more firmly than with the relievers, or just ran out of time (maybe both?) If the idea that their new owner had a hand in their strategy at the deadline (I'm very skeptical of this, but others seem to be treating this as fact), I don't think we'd have seen the smoke around a Ryan trade that we did on deadline day if they envisioned extending him. And they could stagger the sell-off of them over different trading windows, but wouldn't their theoretical value decrease with each window? I know it's more nuanced than that for starting pitchers, but that seems to be the general trend line
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They didn't need to trade the entire bullpen either, but here we are. I have a hard time seeing a path to real contention in the Lopez/Ober window (you could say I'm not optimistic that the payroll saved will be reinvested in the lineup improvements needed to make short-term contention a possibility). And if that's true, why would you keep any of them, let alone all of them?
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I just as firmly believe that a consistent spot in the batting order has nothing to do with hitting development (I believe that for a regular role in the field as well, but my belief is less firm there). But I am genuinely curious to learn what an actual study of this would say. Please let us know if/when you get around to this project and what you learn from it!
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On top of that, there may be teams (Baltimore?) that weren't going to add anything at the deadline that could be more motivated to add starting pitching in the offseason
- 21 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- david festa
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I mentioned this elsewhere, but I think they have an opportunity to get more information on the young guys if they use some rotation slots to pair them up in a piggyback scenario. Let Ryan, Ober, and SWR do their thing. For the other two slots, pair up, say, Festa with Bradley and Matthews with Abel. Have them each go 4 innings. Maybe a 5th if the situation dictates. It's not like they'd be letting these guys go any more than that in a traditional setup anyway. Now you can gather information and build experience for four young starters instead of two. Could be a creative way to steal some development time. If Pablo returns, or there's injuries, you can reshuffle as necessary. Maybe Adams or Ohl can be a partner if an opening emerges or you think SWR belongs in this group. Maybe Festa kills it for a few turns and you give him a chance to be a big boy starter. You have a lot of ways to play this. Doing this would shorten the bullpen by two members, but it would also save them collectively about 6-8 innings per time through the rotation that it would be required to cover. Given the emptiness of that bullpen cupboard, counting on fewer guys I think is a good thing. I dunno. To me, this would be better than constant bullpen games with a bullpen you don't have
- 21 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- david festa
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I did honestly miss that part. But I don't really trust much of what Manfred has to say given some assurances on the TV front that haven't yet come to fruition (specifically on the ESPN replacement piece) among other things, and I'm not putting much stock into "no, we really mean it this time!" rumors about the sale timeline. Doesn't mean they can't turn out to be true. But I'll believe a sale is happening when I see it. I also think the Pohlads are behaving exactly how they would if they thought they were going to end up being stuck with the team for a while. Again, doesn't mean a sale can't happen. But there's enough seeds of doubt to make me skeptical
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Ope, Didn't Mean to Let You Have Hope
The Great Hambino replied to Chris Hanel's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
My theory: Louis was the anonymous source to Dan Hayes that no one wants to be here if there selling like this -
Exactly. The odds are incredibly flat in the MLB lottery. And even if it were worth it, wouldn't playing young players that maybe aren't quite ready accomplish the same goal?
- 110 replies
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- bailey ober
- pierson ohl
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Okay, then don't bring up Keaschall. That doesn't explain the battalion of AAAA young starters wasting their time in St Paul. Some of them will have to convert to the bullpen at some point. Sitting on them now in place of giving Erasmo Ramirez a roster spot and delaying their development in the name of marginally better odds at the biggest crapshoot in American sports drafts is shortsighted at best. And Jenkins was the no brainest of no brainers, they get no credit for that. And I was disappointed they went with Lewis over Greene and Gore
- 110 replies
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- bailey ober
- pierson ohl
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All so they can draft a kid underslot that they would've gotten later anyway, just so they can show everyone how smart they are. This could be a time spent gathering important information on the young guys on the fringe. Young hitters learning to adjust to major league pitching. Hell, use a few rotation slots to piggyback some young starters. Give them 4 innings each, not like they'd let them throw more than that anyway. Could be a creative way to lessen the load on the bullpen you don't have. The ones that show promise can be developed as starters. The ones that don't can drop their worst pitch and crank up the heater to reinvent themselves as an actual bullpen piece. But no, more important to improve your chances at the #1 pick by 2.3%
- 110 replies
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- bailey ober
- pierson ohl
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There's no way they actually think that. However, they do think we're dumb enough to believe it. If they actually reinvest the salary savings and retain the starters, then I'll eat as big a plate of crow as they can find. But there's nothing they've done since they were eliminated from the playoffs that tells me that they will
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Tanking for draft capital makes no sense in baseball's setup. The odds are too smoothed over from position to position, there are limitations on a long-term tank, and prospects even at the top have too much variance for it to be worthwhile. If Falvey truly gave away four years of Varland for whatever marginal one-time uptick in draft odds that would provide for 2026, then not only should he be fired, he should be imprisoned
- 57 replies
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- alan roden
- kody funderburk
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Peter man, the other team gets to hit too. That ain't a winning run I generally would rather not bunt in the top of the tenth (bottom is a different story). But with a nonfactor at the plate ... sure, lay one down And I'm not ready to complain about Funderburk being on the team as long as Erasmo Ramirez is on the team
- 57 replies
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- alan roden
- kody funderburk
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