The Great Hambino

Certainly not from 2017-2020 when Rosario's 5-for-23 with 6 strikeouts powered the Twins to an 0-6 postseason record

What seems to get lost in complaints about the Twins not replicating Eddie Rosario's production after he left is that, outside of getting on a heater in the 2021 playoffs, Eddie Rosario has also failed to replicate Eddie Rosario's production since he left.

One thing I hope that comes out of failure of RSNs in most markets is those markets developing a centralized DTC system that not only shares revenue but also forms a voting bloc to bring the teams with a viable RSN to the table in terms of revenue sharing. The Yankees/Dodgers/et. al. would have to play nice and work with the have-nots so they can present an equitable plan to the players.

Now that the matchup is set, who are y'all pulling for (other than the meteor, obvi)? I'm telling myself that I'm rooting for Ohtani and Betts, not the Dodgers. But I'm rooting for the Dodgers. Offensively, both led their leagues in homers, walks, and OPS (could've included runs too if not for those pesky D-Backs) Both pitchings staffs have middling-to-good (not great) league rankings in run prevention and baserunner prevention Gonna be a lot of runs scored this series

And the floor has to be an actual functioning floor, not the pathetic $100MM the owners proposed in the last round of CBA talks. That only affects a handful of teams, so what they were effectively offering was a cap with no floor. That's a nonstarter for the players, as it should be. Real revenue sharing has to come hand in hand with a real salary floor that actually disincentivizes teams from just pocketing their revenue sharing dollars. The owners can't have one without the other. With the widening revenue gap between the teams that have their own RSN and the teams that have to figure out how to make DTC work, I think the next CBA battle between those two groups of teams as much as between players and owners. The owners will have to get on the same page to effectively battle the players, which will be ... interesting

Now I get to wait and see which NL team I'll be holding my nose to root for in the World Series

Yeah, I could see it being the "value" option for fans that can't afford to come see their NFL team play the Raiders

And that very well may hold true facing direct threat of relocation. If I had to bet, I'd say Nashville Sox is more likely than a new Chicago stadium (unless MLB's expansion timeline is quicker than a Sox sale, but that's a discussion for another day). I'm just saying, historically, communities have blinked in the relocation staring contest. Chicago hasn't had to face that yet. But the main point is there's a much easier path to heavily-subsidized commercial real estate development with their franchise (wherever it may come from), which makes them more attractive to a potential buyer than the Twins

It would be pretty shortsighted to make a 6-year $33+MM annual financial commitment based on a single $30MM non-recurring revenue payout . They woulda been shopping in the Scherzer section if that were the driving force. Now that I think about it, shortsightedness is pretty on-brand, so maybe that was the driving force

They might not get one now, but these things change. The threat of relocation has gotten many cities to build stadiums that they previously had no appetite for. How many NFL stadiums were funded by the boogeyman called Los Angeles during the city's period without a team? Leadership also changes. All it takes is the right mayor/county commissioner/governor/city council getting greased at the right time to push a stadium funding bill through - sometimes against the will of the public. And citywide indifference didn't prevent St Pete from putting up another monument to public inefficiency in a spot no one wanted. Can the Sox get public funding for a new stadium right now? No. But the relocation threat is very abstract and distant right now. Let's see what happens when a new ownership group has a deal outlined with Nashville ready to go. And that is one of the things that makes the White Sox franchise more attractive to a potential buyer than the Twins: multiple potential avenues for that sweet sweet public money.

Re: Santana, To me it's not a question of whether he did enough to justify his contract - he certainly did, and even if you projected a slight decline as he slides a year further down the aging curve, it's not unreasonable to think he can provide value in 2025. It's a question of whether they can be the highest bidder for his services. It just takes one team with deeper pockets and use for an above-average switch-hitting bat and plus glove at first (say, the Mets if they don't get Alonso to come back) to take the decision out of the Twins' hands.

That defense of the Pohlads doesn't hold up to me. Even if they didn't know that bankruptcy was coming for DSG (which is hard for me to believe given the public information showing their struggles - surely insiders would have even more info on this), they doubled down on long-term payroll increases by extending Pablo, which happened after the bankruptcy filing. If they didn't know when they signed Carlos, they sure as hell should've when they extended Pablo. They don't get to claim ignorance of the TV problems

You can justify signing Correa (plus extending Pablo on top of it). Investing in payroll when you see a competitive window opening makes sense for a mid-market team. You can justify reducing the payroll because of the TV revenue. You absolutely cannot justify doing both within less than a year of each other. The only way this could be justified is if the TV problem had blindsided them out of nowhere. But there's no way competent leadership wouldn't have seen that coming. The impending DSG issues were public knowledge when they signed Correa (they were losing a billion with a capital B per quarter by the fall of 2022), and DSG had already filed for bankruptcy when they extended Pablo. Why the family keeps letting Joe run things is beyond me. Between this and his farcical forays into running media companies, he's like the opposite of King Midas. I wouldn't trust him to run a lemonade stand.

They need to keep Castro's versatility around if they're going to continue to platoon as much as they have. Salary space can be carved out elsewhere if needed. Among other things, I think moving him signifies a fundamental change in their platooning philosophy

What world are you living in where price has nothing to do with his replacement? This is a real team with a publicly-stated budget, not MLB The Show franchise mode

Over the past two seasons Jeffers is 9th in bWAR among catchers (threshold of catching in 40% of games played). Of the players in front of him, they all either arb/pre-arb with at least three years of team control left (Contreras-Milwaukee, Raleigh, Rutschman, Moreno, Yainer Diaz) or are signed to free agent contracts making more than triple Jeffers' projected salary (Will Smith, Realmuto, Contreras-St Louis). None are free agents this offseason. The best free agents on the list are 19. Elias Diaz (OPS+ of 88 last year), 22. Gary Sanchez (93), and 23. Danny Jansen (87). And I might be going out on a limb here, but I don't see an immediate upgrade within the organization. Even if you adjust to the last three seasons (Jeffers ranks 12th) or just last season (17th), no pending free agents rank ahead of him. If Jeffers is easily replaceable at $5MM, I'd be interested in hearing who all these replacements are.

Speaking of, uh, speaking about payroll: why would it be beneficial in any way to tip your hand to other teams or free agents what your spending plans are going to be? Say you want to unload a contract because you know you're maxed out for next year's budget and it might be the only way you can create space to add some guys. If other teams know your budget, wouldn't they be able to squeeze you on their offers knowing that you are in a position where you need to move him? Or if you say you're going to add payroll, but you keep missing on your targets (we were in on so many free agents!), do you feel pressure to throw money at whomever's still looking for a dance partner as spring training opens just to keep the pitchforked mob at bay? There just isn't a competitive advantage to divulging that information.

In the spirit of this franchise's time-honored traditions of nepotism and failing upward, I submit the most failingly-upwardest member of the Roy family:

Manfred is on record that they are looking to add two expansion teams now that Oakland/Tampa stadium situations have been resolved one way or another. Unless they reverse course, they're not moving any teams before those expansion slots are filled. So in effect, there would have to be three markets - not one - so much more desirable than the Twin Cities that it would be worth it to eat whatever steep financial penalty that would come with breaking the Target Field lease in order to move the team. They're not moving. Not even a remote possibility in the next 15 years.

I’ve been very critical of how the front office has handled their TV situation, so I have to give them credit here - not just for making the leap, but making it decisively. No farting around and letting the fans twist in the wind for yet another offseason. Rip the bandaid off and adjust to the new normal. Still a lot of questions left to be answered, such as any complimentary OTA/cable feeds ala the Padres model - and pretty please can the MLB.tv package season ticket holders get include the in market games? - but this is a great first step

In case there was any doubt that the RSN model is dying: wouldn't ROOT, NBC Sports, etc be champing at the bit to swoop in and get established in these newly (or soon-to-be) open markets if their own models were thriving? Maybe I missed it, but I haven't seen or heard anything to suggest that might be happening.

The Twins used 154 different lineups this year, which sounds ... high. But it wasn't too out of line compared to the AL playoff teams. Yankees used 106 different lineups, which was the fewest by far of the AL playoff teams. Having two hitters that were A) in the top 5 in all of baseball and B) healthy all year in Judge and Soto locking down two spots I'm sure had a lot to do with cutting down on the lineup permutations. If they were each only healthy for half the season - and the healthy times didn't overlap much - they'd have used more lineups out of necessity. The Royals used 137. Everyone else in the playoffs used at least 144. The Tigers - that team with the manager everyone here wishes the Twins had and the payroll the Pohlads wish the Twins had - used 155 different lineups Right, wrong, or indifferent, a fixed inflexible lineup just isn't something that happens in today's game. Back in the days of 10 man pitching staffs and no DH, there were 7 bench spots to cover for 8 spots in the order. Now there are 4 to cover 9. With the apparent increase in injuries in today's game, teams have to dip into that shorter bench more often. All this requires more flexibility, which is naturally going to result in more lineups. The Twins are on the high side for sure, but not as out of line as it might seem, and I'd argue driven at least partially by the injuries the guys you'd ideally build a lineup around in Buxton and Correa (throw Lewis in there too if you'd like)

I don't know if I've ever had my opinion of a player flip as much in as short of an amount of time as mine did of Alexi Casilla from the late tag up on what should've been the winning run in the tenth to "THERE WILL BE NO PLAY..." He really took me on an emotional journey across that hour or so

I'd love to be wrong here, but Lopez netted Arraez and a non-top 100 prospect when he cost $5.5 mil. You think he'll get 2 top 100 prospects costing nearly 4 times as much? I have my doubts. Maybe middling wasn't the right word - how about solid-but-unspectacular

Pablo gets moved for a pu pu platter of middling prospects. Salary savings are reinvested in bringing back Santana and bringing in one starter and multiple relievers with sketchy injury histories Twins kick in salary to move Paddack and prospect ballast for a serviceable RH ouftielder with team control - sort of a reverse of last year's Polanco trade with Paddack playing the role of DeSclafani Both catchers are retained St Peter decides to take whatever table scraps Bally will give him and accepts a carriage deal at a siginificantly reduced rate Fans continue to right-size their interest in the team