singlesoverwalks

If every game is 50/50, there's a 13 in 8192 chance of this happening. Or about 0.16%, if you like percentages.

According to my calculations, as of tonight (Tuesday I think), if the Twins win all their remaining games, and Texas loses to the Angels tonight, and Seattle loses to Houston tonight, and then Seattle takes 3 of 4 in the end-of-season series vs. Texas, and Houston is no better than 3-2 for the rest of the season then the Twins get a buy for the wildcard round. 👍

I love the guy and love this picture of him with his mom and dad. Boo to the draconian immigration policies that made them wait so long.

Of course, the Twins won two games in that series, because Joe Mauer hit a clutch double down the Dome's left field line that was duly called fair by the left field umpire who was right on top of it and HAD ONE JOB.

Based on their trade deadline behavior, I'm guessing they have a moratorium on adding salary. No claims.

So if a fan from 2016 woke up from a 7-year coma a week ago, the last two series before the All-Star Break would have already told them everything they needed to know about what this team is in 2023. Two home series, one a sweep of the horrible Royals at home, the other getting swept by the upwardly mobile (but not mighty) Orioles: this is a mediocre team that certainly isn't the worst, but isn't well-led enough to build any momentum, and will punish you if you allow yourself to get emotionally invested.

This is going to come out kind of inarticulate, but, hey, it's the comments section on the Internet, so here we go. To me, it's a control thing from the front office. They want the on-field product to reflect their genius rather than being a collection of players who independently find their own ways to succeed. Players like Arraez and Rosario march to a different drummer, and they're out. Rocco is completely submissive to their plan, a mere functionary, a paper-pusher, and he's Manager for Life. The consistent reenactment of the front office's Baseball Genius matters more than the results, so there are no consequences for those who follow orders. It's very bland and off-putting. I stopped watching last year.

Jax leads baseball - all of baseball - in the Fangraphs stat known as "meltdowns." That means he's had the most appearances where he cost the team more than 6% win probability. A lot of guys could do worse, but their managers don't keep running them out there. Blame the manager for putting him in or the front office for not providing a better alternative, but he is really, statistically, costing this team wins.

I like Rooker and I'm glad he's putting something together here. I don't blame the Twins for trading him - they have a lot of Rooker-like players. On the other hand, trading Rogers was very galaxy brain of them.

Just checked my work. Jorge Polanco and Caleb Thielbar were both on the last Gardenhire team. See, the thing is, neither of them played in these games.

Maybe this is the effect of not having any guys left who remember Gardy's mental block in Yankee Stadium?

I was looking at the Fangraphs stat "meltdowns." A relief pitcher gets stuck with a meltdown when their appearance has a -0.06 win expectancy. Jax actually tied for the league lead in this category with 17. He was also 41st in the opposite of meltdowns - shutdowns - with 25. He had the 31st most appearances in the league.

I expect Sanó will get red hot in AAA at some point for some non-Twins team and get a call-up. I don't know how he'll perform in the majors. I think the right coach could possibly still get through to him, unless he's dealing with some deeper problem that we don't know about. I wish him the best. I always thought he had his heart in the right place. Lazy? What shows he's lazy, weight gain? A lot of people, professional athletes included, struggle with their weight. It's rarely because of laziness.

The Giants and Mets have both put a hold on free agent offers to Carlos Correa after a physical. The rumor is he has some condition in his leg, maybe related to a 2014 surgery on his right leg. The Twins signed Carlos Correa to a free agent contract in March 2022, and he had a physical. So logically, it seems like there can only be three things that happened with the Twins and Correa: He wasn't injured when they signed him. Whatever this medical condition is, it didn't exist nine months ago when the Twins signed him. Even if the injury is related to a long-ago leg surgery, maybe the deterioration wasn't to the point of being detectable in March, but now it has reached that point? I guess? He was injured at the time, but the Twins didn't detect it. This would mean that the Twins' physical examination of prospective free agent signings is somehow less rigorous than the Giants' or Mets'. (As a lifelong Twins fan, this has the ring of truth.) The Twins' physical detected the same condition, but they decided they were OK with the risk. Deciding that you could live with some long-term injury risk certainly makes more sense for a three-year, $100-million contract than 12-13 years and over $300 million. It's complete speculation, but I bet it was #3. The Twins' front office seems to have a philosophy of not being scared off by injury histories (see their trade for Chris Paddock, who everyone knew was a risk to have Tommy John surgery in the next year, or their signing of Byron Buxton to one of the biggest contracts in franchise history). Any player could have a season-ending injury at any time, they reason. Maybe they believe they can get value they wouldn't normally get by being willing to sign the players that other teams pass over because of injury risk. If that's the case, then Correa was playing with this medical condition for the last year, and he has the records from the March 2022 physical to show he played with it. Maybe he took the Twins' short-term contract to prove that he is capable of performing at a high level despite this condition? That would make sense. Obviously, we now know that he didn't do this out of some special affection for scrappy mid-market teams - he's strategizing for the biggest payoff possible. So this was the Scott Boras "pillow contract" strategy of showing the market what they could be getting out of this guy if they signed him to a long-term deal. If this is the case, that also means we know the Twins made their $285 million, 10-year offer knowing that Correa had this condition. So presumably that offer would still be on the table - unless the Twins didn't really want to sign Correa and were just making that offer for show (I don't really buy that conspiratorial theory, but I guess companies have done worse things), or they're taken aback by how seriously the Giants and Mets took the condition and want to reevaluate, or their feelings are hurt by Correa not loving them enough to give them a discount. The Giants offer was 13 years, $350 million, and the Mets offer was exactly 10% lower (in dollars) at 12 years, $315 million. What's 10% lower than $315 million? (Checks Google) $283.5 million - or almost exactly what the Twins offered. Maybe this could happen after all?

You knew Joey Gallo's batting average last season was low, but did you know... ... That it was the second lowest batting average of the last hundred years (minimum 350 PA)?

Vía Fangraphs, here are the lowest average seasons from 1980 to 2002, minimum 350 PA (link below). A lot of disastrous years for large men like Rob Deer, Chris Davis, Adam Dunn, and Logan Morrison. Most of the players on this list never recovered; most who did were (or are) defense-first catchers. Did any of the Gallo-like sluggers ever make it back to usefulness? Yeah. Adam Dunn in 2012 hit .219 with 41 home runs a year after hitting .159 with 11 HR. And Rob Deer in 1992 hit .247 with 32 home runs a year after his legendary 1991, when he hit .179 (which a lot of players did worse than in 2021 and 2022). So is it possible? Yeah. It's not the prevailing trend, but we can hope for a 2012 Dunn or a 1992 Rob Deer. It feels weird saying that because those are two of my least favorite players ever, but, well, Gallo is a Twin now. This is what we've got. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=np&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=350&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=1980&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=1980-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=14,a

boo

I want the Twins to take the $28.5m/year they offered Carlos Correa and buy a CD. I want proof of the CD. They need to frame it and put it on display at Target Field. Then next year they add that to whatever they have left over from this year and spend it all on free agents. Don't blow it on Dansby Swanson this year.

Vazquez and Correa are both Puerto Rico Baseball Academy products (4 years apart). I bet the FO thinks having Vazquez around will make the Twins more enticing to Correa. https://www.baseball-reference.com/schools/index.cgi?key_school=6a3a85df

I'm pretty sure the 75% strikeout jags he went on had to be psychological. Maybe getting out of Minnesota, with the history of high expectations, helps him psychologically.

If one kind of hitter is going to benefit from the new defensive positioning rules it's the line drive hitter, right? Here are the top LD% hitters of 2022 per Fangraphs. The Twins just traded away #15 (a $10M mostly 3B who they have a replacement for) and picked up #8 ($5M, mostly SS, they don't have a shortstop anymore).

If the name of the game is avoiding injuries, then maybe we need management that selects players and staff who can minimize injuries.

I've seen a lot of Queen jokes in the last 24 hours and these are all of the best ones.

This strategy works for teams with good bullpens, not teams like the Twins where the reliever who gets the extra inning the starter isn't pitching is actually worse than the starter's third time through the order.

Literally banging my head aganst the desk. Closing the Gameday tab and going back to work.