singlesoverwalks

It's like the mid-'90s, except we didn't win the World Series in the last five years.

This was a good call when it was written, and now if you look at the list of remaining unsigned free agents it's just blindingly obvious. It must be done.

I get it. All of the available free agent first basemen are roughly the same, and we have to sign one of them, so just sign the cheapest of them. Makes sense to me.

I think I'm coming around to the view that they should spend maybe $7-10 million on a serviceable right handed hitter who will make them less vulnerable to lefty starting pitchers, like Goldschmidt or Ozuna, and spend the rest on relievers. Walker Jenkins or Emmanuel Rodriguez could catch fire this year. BTW, Rodriguez is left-handed. He should try first base.

Good call, let's do that. Martin is the exact opposite of the traditional first baseman (no power, good speed), but if he could handle the position then the Twins could spend their little smidgen of budget on the best bat they can find without worrying about whether the guy can play first. They could sign a DH like Ozuna or a corner outfielder so Larnach can DH.

Is there any hope that one of our glut of replacement-level outfielders learns first base?

I guess this (tendering Larnach) is a move you might make if you believe (1) you're unlikely to find a player worth keeping on the 40-man roster in the Rule 5 draft and (2) redundancy (AKA "depth") is actually a huge advantage in roster construction because of the frequency of injuries. And also, obviously, (3) you're not going to sign any free agents. So your theory is that when one of your slightly-above-replacement-level players goes down with injury, you're going to have the competitive advantage of not needing to call up a minor leaguer who's not yet ready for the big leagues. Another theory is that if you're going to be a bad team, you keep your good prospects in the minors for as long as possible so they can all come up in a big wave and give you a solid competitive window in some future season. They're "blocked," but really you're manipulating their service time. You stock up on replacement level players and hope one randomly has a career year so you can trade him at the deadline for more prospects. Again, this theory assumes you don't think the Rule 5 draft is worth it this year.

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Instant classic.

I think the front office makes decent decisions given their constraints, but the on-field management is a big problem. Not that we have a perfect roster, but we could have had that wildcard spot. In other words, we need a new manager.

Yep. And also, the manager gets to manage our team because he sees and understands more than the players' L/R splits that any of us can get on Fangraphs. The best managers know that stuff but are able to make better decisions because they (1) have more information than us thanks to seeing the game with a trained eye and (2) have an intuitive tactical sense that comes from decades of experience in baseball. Those managers will occasionally make moves that seem counterintuitive to us because they know something we don't, and those moves will often work out. They'll get more out of their team than we thought was possible. We should be trying to find a manager like that.

This is a very good point. I'd say that actually a few high-budget or super-smart teams (like Cleveland) can do this often. Relentlessly playing the matchups and not letting starters pitch to hitters a third time turns out really well if you have a bunch of great relievers. But if you have a mediocre bullpen, your starter is often just a better pitcher than most of your relievers.

There are three problems Rocco has that make him a mediocre manager. One, brain lock. Sometimes, when the game speeds up on him, he locks up and can't make the obvious call. Examples of this are when he fails to put in a pinch runner or replace a struggling reliever. Two, galaxy brain. More or less the opposite of brain lock, this happens when he has a long time to think about something - like when he's going to take his starter out of the game - and he focuses too much on one aspect of the game and talks himself into a not-great decision. Third, uninspiring leader. This is his failure to get his players to play smart, hard-nosed baseball. Anyway, this was a case of galaxy brain. The question he asked himself was "Who is the best pitcher to get Duran out?" rather than "Who is the best pitcher to finish the inning?" - with the understanding that finishing the inning might take facing multiple batters besides Duran. If you ask the second question, the obvious answer is Zebby Matthews (assuming the high-leverage relievers aren't on the table, which I think is fair), because Irvin is a disaster against the upcoming righties. But Rocco disregarded that. He focused only on Duran and ignored the question of what happens if Irvin *doesn't* get Duran. A simplified and also better question to ask would be "You can put your fate in Cole Irvin's hands or Zebby Matthews'. Who do you choose?" Given the evidence of your eyes yesterday, Matthews was the better choice. Addendum: This is exactly what we got Irvin for! If you can't use him here, where can you use him? Exactly. That's why he was available on the waiver wire. LOOGies are a dying breed because of exactly this problem.

Game 1 goes final with Tigers up 4-3 and Royals down 2-0: Twins have wildcard at end of today 64.4% Twins have 5 seed at end of today 35.1% Twins have 6 seed at end of today 29.4%

Kerry Carpenter leads off the 6th with a homer to put the Tigers up 4-3: Twins have wildcard at end of today 66.5% Twins have 5 seed at end of today 35.0% Twins have 6 seed at end of today 31.4%

Orioles have tied it 3-3! Twins have wildcard at end of today 79.5% Twins have 5 seed at end of today 35.3% Twins have 6 seed at end of today 44.2%

If the Twins lose this game but win game 2, the Tigers win, and the Royals lose, the Twins finish today one seed better, in the 5-seed.

Royals down 2-0, Tigers up 3-0 - updated probabilities: Twins have wildcard at end of today 60.4% Twins have 5 seed at end of today 33.8% Twins have 6 seed at end of today 26.5%

I think Pablo gave up the 3-run home run, said "Well, might as well get out of this game and save my arm for the next start," and quit trying.

I'm only calculating the chance that the Twins are in that position at the end of today. I don't know about the rest of the season. I don't have a Monte Carlo simulator in my spreadsheet. (Just edited my post to make that more clear...it wasn't very clear.)

Using the current live Fangraphs win probabilities, I have the Twins at Retain the wildcard position at end of today: 64.9% Be in 6-seed at end of today: 38% Be in 5-seed at end of today: 26.9% Showing my work:

The Twins led every game of this series 2-1 at some point. Ron Gardenhire or Tom Kelly, given the same players performing at the same level, would easily have gone 2-2 through bullpen management alone.

I 100% agree with everything here. But let's remember that the Twins could still go on a hot streak that lasts into the playoffs and makes us forget this Very Bad Month or So. The good news is that almost all of their best players are healthy and they're still in playoff position. As of today, they still have an excellent shot. Now, Rocco might have to learn from his mistakes and get a little more conventional, it's true - hey, it could happen.

This is correct. If you look at Bogaerts' total WAR as a shortstop, it's significantly lower than Correa. However, I'd rather have my star player in the lineup, even if at a different position.

When the Twins re-signed Carlos Correa in 2023, he was competing in the free agent market with three other marquee shortstops: Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson (in that approximate order of hype). It's now been almost two full seasons, and it's natural to wonder how Correa has stacked up against those three peers. The results aren't looking spectacular for the Twins front office. We can use wins above replacement (WAR)--specifically, the Fangraphs variety, abbreviated as fWAR--as a quick measure of the players' overall performance, including batting, fielding, and base-running. It's important to note that WAR is a "counting stat," meaning that the player accumulates it throughout the season, so if he's injured, he'll tend to have less of it. And if we want to quantify how the player performed without thinking about how much time he was on the field, we can use WAR/162, which is how many WAR the player would have accumulated in a season if he had been on-field for all 162 games and performed at the same level as he did in the games he actually played. Here's how the four players stack up: Player Team Age (current) GP (2023-present) fWAR (2023-present) WAR/162 Dansby Swanson CHC 30 283 8.3 4.75 Trea Turner PHI 31 261 7.8 4.84 Xander Bogaerts SDP 31 253 6.5 4.16 Carlos Correa MIN 29 210 5.5 4.24 In total WAR, Correa ranks last on the list. Not coincidentally, he's been on the field far less than the other three players. If we want to cut him some slack for his injuries, he has accumulated WAR at a higher rate, when healthy, than Bogaerts, but still at a lower rate than Swanson or Turner. Swanson has the most total WAR and games played, and Turner has the highest WAR/162. From a "Moneyball" perspective, though, are the Twins getting good value for their money? Let's look at this in terms of dollars paid per WAR. And let's do it in two different formats: $/WAR, which is the dollars already paid to the player in 2023 and 2024* divided by the number of WAR, and $/WAR (total committed), looking at the total value of the contract over its entire span, divided by the number of WAR the player has accumulated. Player Team Age (current) fWAR (2023-present) Years signed Total amount $/WAR $/WAR (total committed) Dansby Swanson CHC 30 8.3 7 $ 177,000,000.00 $ 6,092,943 $ 21,325,301 Trea Turner PHI 31 7.8 11 $ 300,000,000.00 $ 6,993,007 $ 38,461,538 Xander Bogaerts SDP 31 6.5 11 $ 280,000,000.00 $ 7,832,168 $ 43,076,923 Carlos Correa MIN 29 5.5 6 $ 200,000,000.00 $ 12,121,212 $ 36,363,636 By $/WAR, the Twins are paying a lot for their shortstop WAR. Correa's WAR are costing almost twice as much as Swanson's, and with similar gaps to Turner and Bogaerts. If there's one stat here that's somewhat forgiving to the Twins, it's $/WAR (total committed). Correa signed a shorter contract with less total value than Turner's or Bogaert's 11-year mega-deals. The Phillies and Padres are on the hook for a full slate of late-30's years when those two players are unlikely to be that good, while the Twins can be out of the Carlos Correa business, if they so choose, by the time he's 34. So if you just look at big free agent contracts as a lump sum of money that buys out the player's (hopefully) prime years, just paid out over several seasons, then the Twins are doing relatively OK. Still, that doesn't change the basic message that Correa hasn't been as good as two of his premiere shortstop peers, and hasn't been on the field enough to be as good as a third. Correa's performance was down in 2023. In 2024, it's been very good on a per-game basis, but he has missed a big chunk of the season. A huge post-season this year would go a long way toward making up for the regular season disappointment this year. Beyond this year, he still has four years left on his contract - we can hope his heels feel better and he puts the 2024 performance and the 2023 time-on-field together in 2025-2028. * For simplicity, not accounting for deferred and up-front money, just acting as if the player gets paid the same amount each year of his contract.