singlesoverwalks

And adding on to that, you might use the opener strategy or the "low starter innings" strategy if your bullpen is a strength, like we think of the classic Rays teams that first tried the "opener" strategy. It really doesn't make sense in the Twins' case, where it currently looks like the starting rotation is relatively strong compared to the bullpen. Simplified basic pitching management that we all know: You want to send out your best pitcher available at the moment. A few complicating (and also obvious) factors: pitchers get tired and therefore less effective as they pitch more, so your "best pitcher" available changes over time, and of course you don't want to over-stress your pitchers and cause injury, which leads to the typical strategies of having high-leverage and low-leverage pitchers, like a "long man" to cover innings where you are losing badly, so you can save stress on high-leverage pitchers, and lower-quality relievers you bring in when you are down a run or two or leading big, etc. Rocco has trouble selecting his best available pitcher on the fly. In the 5th inning yesterday, there was much more reason to be confident in Archer than Winder, and really little reason to think that another inning was going to injure Archer. It was a high-leverage moment because the game was tied, and it was a no-brainer to leave Archer in there based on what our eyes could see. The best path probably would have been to send Archer out for the 5th, with a higher-leverage reliever warming up in case the 5th inning started to go south on Archer. It just seems like Baldelli maps his pitchers out ahead of time and sticks to the plan regardless of the information he's getting from the game itself. He assumed Archer would be gassed and struggling to contain the Dodgers after 4 innings, so he planned to bring in a reliever in the 5th inning. He didn't change his plan based on the actual game-time information that Archer was doing well after 4 innings. And he probably pre-planned bringing in Winder, which would make sense in a low-leverage situation where the Dodgers had shelled Archer - something that certainly seemed like a very real possibility before the game. But it made no sense in the situation. I know I'm beating a dead horse. But actually, it's not a dead horse, because Rocco is still out there managing games for us, so, he's a live horse, and I'm beating him, end of post.

I have to agree. Baseball is baseball and different things go right and wrong every night, but the most consistent reaction to Twins games is that Rocco brought in the wrong pitchers at the wrong time. Duffey in the ninth in game 2, our best high-leverage pitchers with a 4-run lead in game 4, NOT using Winder with that lead in game 4, pulling Archer early, then bringing Winder in for his MAJOR LEAGUE DEBUT in a TIE GAME against the FREAKING DODGERS. Nothing makes any sense and I am sure, absolutely convinced, at this point, based on three years of evidence, that Baldelli can't handle the moment-to-moment decision-making required of a major-league manager.

Fangraphs projects that lousy rotation and good lineup to finish at 82-80, which is more optimistic than I feel. That looks like a sub-500 pitching staff to me. I would sign Johnny Cueto.

I want to add that the AL Central currently edges the NL West for the division with the fanciest shortstops. Correa, Tim Anderson, and Javy Báez beat Cory Seager and Tatís Jr. If Trevor Story signs with the Giants then we can debate it, but right now it's hands-down.

Correa >>> Simmons Gray < Berríos Urshela << Donaldson Jeffers < Garver Bundy = Pineda (hopefully?) Sánchez < Cruz Buxton could be healthier, veterans could have career years, young players could improve. There is reason for optimism. But the off-season still looks like a wash at best if there isn't more coming, especially given how bad the pitching already was.

LOST Garver (#1 C) Donaldson (3B) Rortvedt (#3 C) GAINED Sánchez (now the #2 C) Urshela (new 3B) $50 million in 2022-2023 budget OUTSTANDING NEEDS SS Pitching would be nice Adds up to a free agent shortstop signing coming.

I have figured out the Twins' strategy on pitching. (Clears throat.) Never spend big money on pitching. Small money on multi-year contracts is good. They'll do that (Maeda, Dobnak). They'll do medium-big one-year money (qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi). But if you won't sign José Berríos at what he was willing to sign for, you simply will never sign any big-money pitcher to a multi-year deal. So, from this list, I would predict the Twins sign Michael Pineda.

My personal hobby horse is that the Twins' problem isn't that they don't draft good players. It's that they don't usually do a good job developing the players they do draft. Too many players get better after they leave the Twins.

Elite levels of rueful laughter.

This is not at all meant as a disparaging comment: I think managing his weight better would help him. He has performed best when his weight has been lowest. I think he goes home in the off season, eats too much home cooking and maybe has too many beers with his Dominican League buddies, and loses his edge. His agent should hire the man a personal chef and personal trainer in the Dominican Republic if necessary.

Trade Cruz and any other one-year veterans you can unload for some blazing minor league arms, sign some free agents, cross your fingers and hope the pieces fall into place (like Ober, Maeda, and Dobby get better, some current prospects work out, etc.). It has worked before. The best strategy in MLB, if you're not going to have a $200 million payroll, is often to be good enough to have a chance at contending.

I guess it feels like trading Berrios for minor-league pitchers is almost certainly giving up on 2022. It seems really unlikely that you would get starting pitching that would be better than Berrios would be in 2022. Once in a while you'll get a John Smoltz or Dwight Gooden who is an ace starting pitcher as a rookie, but it's really rare. Here are the only rookie pitchers who are better than Berrios in terms of Fangraphs WAR this year: Trevor Rogers (MIA) at 2.8 WAR, Ian Anderson (ATL) at 1.9 WAR. Berrios is at 1.8 WAR. In the last full season, 2019, there was no rookie starting pitcher who equaled Berrios's 4.3 WAR. So, it's possible to improve, but you would have to make a really good trade and probably get lucky. The most likely way you end up with a better pitcher than the 2022 Berrios is if Berrios gets injured, which is certainly possible, but then it's just as likely that the rookie replacement gets injured. If we don't need hitters for 2022 (I'm skeptical about that, but maybe it's true), then I might hold Berrios rather than trading. Maybe we can trade Nelson Cruz and Michael Pineda for some good 2022 arms (probably bullpen arms - it think it's more common to find rookies who can handle relief roles), put them together with Berrios and some free agents (not that 2021 has given us much reason to believe in our ability to find pitching via free agency), and have enough pitching to contend in 2022. Or, maybe we need to give up on 2022 and trade Berrios for a vanload of great low minors pitching prospects.

We're certainly going to need a DH, because Cruz will be traded. Sanó might be that DH, but boy, I dunno. Larnach could be the DH, but then we do have an opening in the outfield.

You don't have to get only low minors prospects for a top-30 starting pitcher. The Twins' model for a Berríos trade should be the Cleveland trade of Trevor Bauer (boooo) for Franmil Reyes + other prospects last year. Reyes was already in the majors with San Diego and performing well at the time, and he still has plenty of years left until arbitration.

And then Pat Reusse will pen an editorial about how an old-school ballplayer would have played the night after the asteroid strike.

Could anyone explain to me why Sanó wasn't used as a pinch hitter in this game? Ideally while it was still tied?

The trade hasn't worked out, but it was understandable, given the depth the Twins seemed to have at outfield, and their need for pitching. Trying to slip Anderson through waivers instead of Shoemaker was stupid. And it was the level of stupid that makes you think the front office is either on drugs or incapable of admitting they've made a mistake. I hope it's the drugs, but seems more likely that they want so strongly to believe in their own genius that they've invested themselves in Shoemaker's future value, which everyone who is not them can see is below-gum-wrapper-on-the-sidewalk level.

Agreed. If I were Jose Berrios, I would expect more than the talented but oft-injured McCullers - and I think the market would concur.

This could very well go down in history as an idiotic comment, and I think the world of Jose Berrios. But I think given the Twins' constraints, he's probably worth more as trade bait than as a free agent on that kind of money. If we had three other good starting pitchers and we were in contention this year, I would think it was worth it. But (constraint 1) the Twins need multiple good start pitchers, and (constraint 2) they're not a high-spending team (though the Pohlads could probably afford more). Almost every starting pitcher signed to a long-term contract breaks down with injuries at some point during the contract, too; Berrios seems much more durable and fit than most, but it would be silly to bet that he'll buck the trend. Berrios would fetch a king's ransom in prospects. He's exactly the right age, not owed much money, has exciting stuff, and has no significant injury history. There is always a market for starting pitching because every prospective playoff team needs 4 of them. If the front office is any good, they could really cash in - it could be a foundational trade for a run of good years. And as I've said elsewhere (when advocating trading Buxton), if you do it right, you don't have to "rebuild." Their goal should be to pull off a trade like Cleveland's trade of Trevor Bauer for Franmil Reyes and prospects last year. Cleveland just shifted gears and kept winning.

I would add that trading a marquee player doesn't necessarily doom you to losing seasons. Last year, Cleveland gave up Trevor Bauer in a three-team trade and managed to get a very good, young, controllable bat in Franmil Reyes plus other prospects. If you are good at your job--and I'm not saying our GMs are after this season--but if you are good you can avoid the full rebuild.

Atlanta needs outfielders aside from Acuña, and Byron is from Georgia (I say this while crying with a determined expression on my face).

Sometimes you have to rewrite your blog post a little more extensively than this.

I don't really get why Jake Cave has to be on the team.

That's a 19th century poetry reference, you philistines. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_Byron

For the record - and I can't take credit for this - his nickname should be Lord Byron.