Hawkeye Bean Counter

I think Philly, Baltimore, Yankees and Dodgers would still be ranked higher. Even if they are all in the same grouping you are looking at no better than 20% shot at a WS. If you think this is the time to go all in fine. I just think you will have better opportunities to go all in, and likely in years where it is not an extreme sellers market.

What was the dodger salary that year? How good of a team were they? They were an elite teaming adding to it. If the Twins added a #1 pitcher and an elite reliever they would still not be the favorites to win the world series. That effectively is my point.

Similar to Kikuchi, I think the value of a pitcher who has potentially more stuff is going to be much more expensive than a SP like Fedde. Will know here shortly. Thinking we will stand pat.

Interdivisional trade, sounds like something very feasible chpettit. Deadline deals are generally overpay. Its offseason deals where you tend to get more equal value. Giving up Emma Fest and Raya, likely is hurting, but if you are going for it, you will need at least 1 more good reliever so giving up another top 7 prospect maybe more. I am also not sure Detroit would think those 3 are enough. They would probably want to swap Jenkins for Rodriguez. The theory is if you are going for it, you are probably trading for a #1 pitcher, very expensive, you are trading for an elite reliever, still costly, maybe uprgrading another reliever and possibly upgrading a bat. You would likely be giving up 5-6 of your top 10 prospects and a couple of you 10-20 prospects as well. Just look how much we gave for Mahle. So when looking at it from that front, yes you are using most of your ammo for mostly a 1 year increase in chances to get to the playoffs. Prospects are prospects, but who would have thought SWR would be providing the value he is to the team this year.

Pretty much if you get to the playoffs you have a 5% chance. So as much as yes you want to play silly games, I would like multiple chances at winning it all, than 1 slightly better chance in 1 year.

So would you rather have 1 option to win the WS in 5-6 yeas at maybe 20% probabilities, or 5-6 with 6-8% for each year. Going for it in 1 year, where you have to do massive overpays for minimal improvement is not a wise scenario. Now you can go the Braves route, where you get players that are struggling but have some pedigree and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. If trading Duran is heavily in their favor they will, but that means you need to find someone willing to massively overpay. Then the question is do they pivot and use resources to get another reliever and possibly another SP. Its all hypothetical at this point other than we know they are willing to listen to offers on Kepler and Duran.

The playoffs is ultimately catching lightning in a bottle, different strategies have worked, 2 elite pitchers, ok pitching good hitting, great bullpen ect. Looking at this team, you have right now would could be a very good bullpen, 2-3 solid to above average starting pitchers with SWR more than holding his own, and what could be a very good lineup with a lot of depth. Besides a lefty reliever, there is not an obvious hole. Ultimately you want as many shots to get to the playoffs, and hope things begin to break your way. I like the Braves approach of finding some cheap replacements without going all in from a couple years ago. Ultimately I want us to continue to have internal options to provide the depth we need. Trade values seem to be much better in the offseason. Which means if they were to trade Duran, it would likely be a trade heavily in the Twins favor, so ultimately I would not be too upset with it.

The issue is the Twins would be asking for salary as well, as they are unable to take on more salary, increasing the trade compensation, and risk.

Honestly, the bullpen isn't that far off, and if Topa looks solid, potentially a top 5 bullpen. Theilbar has been the biggest one to fall off. Honestly a solid lefty relieve, possibly let Theilbar go and that is a very deep bullpen. Alcala, Duran, Jax, Okert, Sands, Staumont, Stewart, (add Topa, and replace Theilbar unless he begins to turn it around).

Supposedly, Margot Kepler and . . . wait for it . . . Duran are potentially players the Twins would be willing to trade. I still think Kepler you keep to see if can get hot during the stretch and can get another comp pick in next years draft, unless someone is willing to do a massive overpay. I think the Twins have the same theory with Duran, if you want to do a massive overpay fine, but what we would be looking for is reliever help or SP, so seems like it would be hurting more than helping. I still really trust Falvey and Levine and the direction they go in. Most deals they end up ahead on, and they have continued to build up the farm system. It does seem like the Pohlads are really starting to tighten up the purse strings. I thought might be a one off due to the television issues, but it appears to be more than that. Really curious to see if anything happens in the next 36 hours, honestly I am not expecting much.

On the 40 man LOL.

Actually no, with Hill and Carpenter they overpaid, 1,190,000 million. With Debarge, Diaw, Ferrar, Kendle, Bender, Jones, Hall, Doktorczyk, and Carr the Twins have saved 1,233,000. Looks like will be pretty close to slot or slightly over for Culpepper unless will go over slot for a few more players that remained unsigned.

So it has kind of been mentioned but Priellip has obviously been missed (never mind 48, wow). Likely needs to be anywhere from 7-15, after 4 very sharp innings. The clean and easy way would be to slot him in where Martin is. There is a possibility he could rise as high as 4-5 if he is able to lengthen out his starts to 4-5 innings at high A and continues to be as dominant and sharp as he has been. If he has another set back though 12-20 definitely seems to be a decent range for a player that will likely be a reliever, even with as good of stuff as he has. However, if ceiling is the goal as stated he may end up being your best pitching prospect in the minors, even though I would keep him below Morris, Festa, and Zebby for this year. Two other quibbles would be no Lee or Langenberg in your top 50 prospects. Beyond that it is interesting and continues to show a very deep farm system. The quality of prospects at 50 is effectively comparable to the top 30 prospects of 3-4 years ago.

All good, just enjoy the win 😉. Lots to be happy about.

Hell of a win. Also may take the edge off of absolutely needing a SP at the trade deadline. Festa definitely looked serviceable today. Hell of a game heck of a series with a lineup that had a lot of back ups in. Sounds like Correa and Miranda are getting ready to come back. We will see the status of Buxton, but he stayed on the basepaths, so likely nothing too serious. Great job Twins. Edit: Even better, X-rays negative for Buxton and it seemed like it was not bothering him at all in the clubhouse.

Pen or Starter, will wait and see. They give every player the opportunity to prove themselves at the lower levels. They see something they can work with, that is enough for me. If either a pen or starter position and starts to flash, will be worth the pick.

The rankings as a whole do not matter to me. However, what Matthews is doing deserves to be a top 5 ranking. Festa slightly below. Matthews is looking like a solid #3 type pitcher. Where it gets interesting is we now have 4 pitchers with extremely high ceilings, players could potentially be a #1 type pitcher with varying degrees on those probabilities. The least likely is Canterino, they guy has great stuff he just has been unable to stay healthy. We will go with another health issue but I honestly feel more comfortable he has turn the corner and that is Priellip. Honestly, he may have the highest ceiling of any other pitcher. If he continues to flash what he has done in his first 2 outings I don't know how you don't have him in your top 6-8 rankings. Soto, would be right there as well. A very sturdy 18 year old, that is making big strides on command and letting his above average to elite stuff start to over take games. He still is a bit hit and miss, 1 to 2 good outings followed by a clunker, but as an 18 year old more than holding his own at A ball, and if continues what has done in his last 3-4 starts, may be showing he is beginning to dominate that level. Lastly Dasan Hill. Hasn't signed yet or thrown a pitch for us, but has an elite slider with a very good fastball. He needs to add weight to his frame, but again looks to have the potential to be a high end lefty pitcher. We have plenty of other pitcher options from the 21-24 drafts. The biggest knock is we have had no #1 type pitchers in the system. If you remove Canterino, we now have a shot at potentially 3 that could hold that mantle. That is a huge accomplishment for this organization. I hope one of those 3 or another pitcher in the system can get there in the next couple year.

Its not just the ability to add the velocity, but also the perceived velocity with a release point that is closer to home plate. You also add in the pitching angle which allows for more downward movement and there are definite advantages that occur from increased height. As much as mention the Zebby effect, Ober is our best example of this strategy. I think the Twins add it into their formula of success, but its not a necessity. We have had pitchers like Varland who have been relatively successful even with a shorter stature.

After changing to a different account, I still like to come back and look at this draft. This will likely go down as one of the best drafts in Twins history, even with some misses. And at 5 years we are pretty close to having a full picture. Both Wallner and Steer appear to be solid MLB hitters that will likely have solid careers. Edouard Julien likely has the highest upside of these 3 but has struggled a bit this year. Gipson-Long, Legumina, Headrick and Varland have all had varying degrees of success. Most are fringing pitchers at the MLB level but a few may stick. Canterino, still likely has the best stuff of any pitcher the Twins picked this draft but just can't stay healthy. Holland's hit tool final showed up this year in AAA but his season was derailed by an injury at the cubs game a couple weeks ago. There is no top end talent per say, but the number of players that have played in the big leagues is truly staggering.

And sometimes Lopez looks like a #1 pitcher.

This was never going to be a draft as exciting as the 2023 draft, the high end quality of players just wasn't there and the Twins didn't have a high end pick for a potential generational talent like Jenkins. What this draft did have his 4 picks in the first 69 selections, and what the Twins have excelled at in past drafts, finding good players they can work with at pretty much any selection was still evident in this draft. Culpepper and DeBarge are not sexy picks. What they are is excellent hitters, 2 of the best hit tools in the entire draft. The Twins went with the odds that these will be 2 of the most likely hitters to make it to the big leagues. When you look at it in those terms yes its likely the right decision. Whether as trade capital or players that have a relatively good probability of making the big leagues I am very happy with that. Would have I preferred Brecht over DeBarge, yes. I still feel his potential is likely there to be a #1 pitcher. But his probabilities of success are all over the board, with a much higher probability of failure, due to injury risk, lack of command, ect. Ultimately the Twins still took a chance on a high end pitcher in lefty pitcher Dasan Hill. Like Brecht, has a nasty slider. He doesn't currently have the velocity of Brecht but is close, and with his lengthy frame, will likely have minimal difference in perceived velocity due to his extension. He is still a work in progress, but command is likely viewed better than Brechts. Ultimately if it is a pick between those 2 players I am fine with the who the Twins picked. He has about as much upside as Brecht. Billy Amick is interesting. Basically a mix of Steer and CES. There is some questions with hit tool, but it looks good enough, power looks very very good. Honestly I think the Twins feel pretty comfortable with this pick. The most interesting thing is he has been viewed as poor speed, poor defense, what has happened this year is the metrics have effectively gone neutral to begin to flash plus for both defense and speed. So if you can have potentially a CES/Steer with above average speed and defense, that becomes a very valuable player. The rest of the hitters, look solid. High OPS, decent hit tools, most with big years this last year, and at varying levels of competitive ball. The pitchers, again look solid. The peripherals maybe not quite as good as say 2022 years picks, but at this point I fully expect to hit on several of those pitchers. Will just be curious to see which one flashes. 1st Blush I am not as impressed as say 2019, 2022, 2023. Do I still think it is still a solid draft and will give us some viable pieces or trade bait, yes. Hill likely has the highest ceiling of any of the players. The next is probably Amick. Culpepper and Debarge have the highest probabilities of making the big leagues, but will they be starters or utility players or even make it to their full potential, that is the question. The rest is flyers. They have a long enough track record to trust the picks they have made. I will continue to watch as I have in prior years.

In 2017, they have had 4 players that have played in MLB 2018 - 5 players played in the MLB 2019 - they have had 7, let me repeat that 7 players that have played in MLB and that doesn't include Holland or Canterino who have a shot. Currently, the 2019, 2022 and 2023 classes appear to be the best drafts of this organization with quality and quantity. I understand the 10% is a normal rule of thumb, but it is not representative of what the Twins have done in the drafts recently.

Either they think can be an elite reliever or most likely a starter. It does seem like at the lower levels, there is no true role. Pitchers will pitch 2, 3 or 4 innings, piggybacked with another potential starter prospect. Then they begin to define more roles as they go up. I don't see the quality of pitchers of prior years. I see some size, but the k/9 pitching ratio they are usual big on, is not showing up at all. Most of these pitchers are in the 6 to 7 range.

Who says it is bad???? They did ok, not great in the 2017-2019 drafts, not great. 2020 draft is a throw away draft. They traded away most of their pitchers from the 2021 draft. The 2022 and the 2023 draft appears to be very successful at finding some quality pitchers. Several already in AA, most of the roster in high A and A ball are comprised from these 2 classes. Most likely they have 2 quality long term pitchers out of these 2 classes. In reality that is all you need. We don't need major reinforcements until 2026.

They seem to be finding enough pitching with putting minimal resources into it. They are now beginning to go for bigger swings on the pitching as well. We will see if 1 of these pitchers can become the true #1 this team needs to really be in the conversation of competing for WS.