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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I could see Bally's as 1 year stop gap, want nothing of a long term plan.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Manoah's issue appear to be mental and his physical status. If he is taking better care of his body in the offseason, I think it will give you a big indicator on whether he will be successful this year or not. The second is how severe is the shoulder injury. He received an injection for shoulder discomfort this fall. Seems like a Paddack situation all over. Still likely worth a flier.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    My expectations are 1 decent FA addition and 1 pitcher traded for (thinking a #3 type pitcher with upside). I am still have a gut feel we go after and get Hoskins. Minimal smoke there other than the Cubs and we have some interest. If Cubs want him, they will get him, but will just have to wait and see.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Well not getting Gray gets us a 1st round draft pick. Which may allow us to trade the comp B pick for something or a prospect like Soto for something of quality. If we can pull off another Gray trade, I think everyone would be pretty happy.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Soto has a high ceiling but yes is still raw. It is good and bad. he doesn't have engrained bad habits, easier to mold, and less stress on the arm, and has a really nice build should be able to handle the physical demands. His success will likely come down to increased control. If you can gain that and develop even further the change up and slider, with the elite fastball, you have a possible #1 pitcher. However, you have possibly injuries and other delays or hurdles in development that make success on high school pitchers that much more difficult. However, with Questad, you have take 2 chances to hopefully find an elite pitcher.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Its kind of like tax time, it doesn't matter the time frame of when income or expense or withholding occurs, at the end of the day, the final picture will always be the same at 12/31. So the question is who cares about momentum in December on signing? And why would you. This is the time frame of massive overpays. We have a really well balanced team already with relatively few holes. I hope for some upgrades, but am happy with where we are currently. The major way this team will improve is through a trade, which is obviously subtracting someone from the team.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Lets see, Varland could either be an elite RP, or may have found what level of pitching is needed in the mlb to succeed and be even better than Kremer. Beyond that the Orioles are not trading away any starting pitching. They already have gaps, they won't create more.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Yes if he has close to a .900 OPS or hight in A or/or A+ ball he will be a top 5 prospect most likely.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    To be fair you asked 2 questions in that post, one if I had seen them which I ignored and the second was which rodriguez it was 😁 They had a video replay of one of the FCL games. Both Winokur and Jenkins looked really good, smooth athletic. Good swings, although Winokur does seem to swing for the fence a bit. Both players looked fairly seasoned for being 18 years old. That is where projection comes in. Jenkins bat to ball skills were slightly better, but for the most part Winokur hung with Jenkins and beyond those 2 the FCL team didn't have much, maybe 1 other solid bat so they really weren't protected much. What was interesting to me was Jenkins did better in A ball than FCL. I would be curious if we would see the same improvement in Winokur or a drop off like Max Clark. These are young players so plenty of valleys, for certain for these players. I just think Winokur although a large player, has decent bat to ball skills and already with immense power (I think hit if not the farthest one of the farthest home runs in the draft combine. If we were to get lucky and all of Winokur, Rodriguez and Jenkins pan out, that is a hell of a defensive and offensive outfield in 2-3 years.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    its Emmanuel, he has immense plate discipline, still some high strike outs. Yes I see Winokur as a similar type level as Emmanual, with the same risks. If you look at them both 50 hit tools, 60 power, then speed and defense Winokur has an actual bit of an advantage. Now he may lose that if he gets bigger. Winokur will have to rely on better hitting with more power than Rodriguez. Rodriguez if he can keep the OBP needs to increase his power a bit, or give up a little walks for more hits. Both players have sky high ceilings, I think Winokurs is higher. Thats where I think both should be higher than the pitchers mentioned earlier. The upside is what is intriguing.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    E Rodriguez struck out 56 times in 153 plate appearances in the FCL in 2021. Winokur struck out 23 times in 71 plate appearances. We are talking extremely SSS but in his first 11 games (50 plate appearances) struck out 18 times. In his last 6 games (21 plate appearances) struck out 5 times. I think we will see improvement in the strikeouts as he gets more acclimated to better pitching. A potential 60 power, 60 speed player in a 6 ft 5 frame is insane. You have a starter kit that has the possibility to turn into an Aaron Judge type player. Same concerns with Judge as Winokur - concern over the hit tool. Now will he find the power while maintaining the speed and defense like Judge, most likely not. There is only 1 Judge. He is also just out of high school. However both Winokur and Jenkins have elite ceilings.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    On MLB trade rumors it came out today that Seattle isn't really interested in trading their top 4 pitchers. Maybe they will change their minds, but at this point I am not even considering Seattle as an option at this point.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I am still hoping we can find a #2 or higher out of the farm system by 2026. Who are those possibilities: 1. Canterino (20%) - has the stuff hasn't shown the health or stamina. 2. Priellip, (20%) - just like canterino, has the ability and arm looked good early before being shut down again. 3. Raya (20%) - maybe not quite the ability and questionable health but in the same ballpark. 4. Hall (30%) - Hall is a pitchers pitcher, elite in college without elite stuff, if the Twins can improve some velocity he could easily fly through the system. 5. Festa, Lewis, Culpepper 10% - All have shown well but most likely just #3 or #4 pitchers in the MLB. 6. Soto Questad(0%) - It will take more than 2 years of seasoning. They are both projects at this point. 5. Morris SWR (less than 10%). possibilities here but most likely not #2 type pitchers. You have the box of chocolates with the rest of the 2023 draft class. I think at least 1 to 2 will emerge along with Hall.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Winokur has more upside than Culpepper, and much less injury risk than Canterino. I see him as more skilled and powerful Rodriguez. Rodriguez is primarily just OBP right now. Both with high strike out potential but potentially more hit tool with Winokur less control of the strike zone. Keaschall is a borderline top 10 prospect. Its odd, they will give Priellip, Soto, Canterino (injury or very little innings pitched) the benefit of the doubt, but get a good performance by Winokur in an admittedly small sample size and leave him off. I could argue Winokur has the highest ceiling of any of the 4 players.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The name doesn't really matter. Will likely come from Marlins or Seattle, and will likely be a #3 pitcher the Twins think they can improve.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    As it stands I think Kepler is right on the cusp of a QO. For comparisons sake Candelario got 3 years $45 mil and on a 1 year deal would have been closer to $20 mil. Its a coin flip as it stands regarding the QO. Then it comes down to what do you expect Kepler to do next year at the plate. Did something fundamentally change at the end of last year compared to the previous seasons - even still he has been a 2 WAR player each of the last 3 seasons. I think Max became more aggressive to at the end of the season evidenced by his increasing swing percentage particularly early in the count. He was taking good aggressive swings on pitches he could handle, rather than making weak contact with 2 strikes. I think we will see some give and take this year with Kepler but I anticipate a better overall season than last year (he doesn't have to be as good as he was at the end of the season, just avoid the extremely slow start). So do the Twins trade him. This all comes down to value just like last year. I think the Twins hold on to him unless blown away with a trade deal. I think they are more willing to cut a deal on Polanco, but we can wait and see on that. If Kepler has a good season the Twins benefit from the good season and a QO compensation. If not you had a viable outfielder while we begin to try to reconfigure what the future outfield will be. We will see what happens.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This is exactly correct. Had they announced as a $460 million contract, there would have been no issues, the issues is people think because they announce it as a 700 million contract. No it is $460 million where instead of paying the player they will put 46 million into an investment vehicle most likely interest bearing accounts that will then be able to pay the $68 million starting in 10 years. The future payments will be paid for and no issues. When MLB tv was talking about it earlier today it sounded as if only 2 million was being counted against tax money, once I looked into it I see no issues with the deal or the structure. Its just different.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    One could argue on a 1 year deal he would be closer to $20 million as well.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    3 years $45 million for Candelario, proves Kepler is pretty close to Qualifying offer, especially if he has a decent year with the bat.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    https://www.twinkietown.com/2023/8/14/23830490/mlb-minnesota-twins-max-kepler-is-locked-in-sweet-spot-crushing-fastballs When you are hitting balls with more velocity and better launch angles than slow rollers to second base, yes you will go from a player that had the worst babip for 3 years running to a much higher babip. He was a 4 WAR during that period, an 8-9 WAR extrapolated for the season. No I don't expect that high of a babip. But to run higher than previous is a decent expectation where he was a 2 WAR with .230 BA. He is an excellent player in the .250 to .260 BA.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    First off I am expecting Kepler to be at minimum a 3.5 to 4 WAR player this year with his offensive changes. This is all perceived Value. I think teams value Kepler more than we do. Is he borderline, Yes he is borderline, but I think when all is said and done he will be and it won't be borderline. It may be right it may be wrong. All I am saying is I think the Twins value him more than fans (similar to Pagan who got a 2 year 16 mil contract), I think teams value Kepler more than fans, and the Twins have needs in the outfield for 2024 so would likely need a large compensation in a trade to make it work.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Thats not what I am asking you to do. However there were 2 specific changes that helped Kepler in 2023. 1 is less shift. Second, being much more aggressive at the plate, and wanting to hit balls earlier in counts. If it gets pushed to higher counts we are in a similar situation as prior years except he has more confidence. Even still a 2-3 WAR Kepler which he has been for the last 3 seasons as you showed is very close to a QO type player worth in the 18 mil to 20 mil area. Kepler with a new approach is likely a higher WAR player than the 2-3 baseline. We will see this year. I am guessing Teoscar is in the 4 year 20 million area for a contract possibly higher (70-80 mil is effectively my baseline) and I don't think he would have accepted the qualifying offer. The Twins for 1 year would take the risk on Kepler. Kepler wants to sign a contract next year, not wait another year especially if he has a poor performance or injury.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I am more than willing to revisit this next offseason 😀. Salaries are going bonkers just look at free agency right now, the threshold for $50 million is extremely low anymore.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Even if I stated 4-5 WAR player fine. What would you say if I told you Kepler was a 4 WAR player for 3 months last year? because thats what he was. Now how does that extrapolate to this year? Does that mean he is a peak 8 WAR type player? That is more where I was gathering a 5-6 WAR. His last 3 months he was an elite hitter. Just watch Teoscar Hernandez. He is more similar to Kepler than Verdugo. I think Seattle will be regretting not putting the QO on. As to the number of QO its because this is an extremely weak free agent class.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I agree with Finn I don't think Prato is picked although I said the same thing about Baddoo and Prato is a better bat. I think we sneak through with no one being picked. Even still Prato is just another bat in this system.
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