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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Mike, I guess I question why you are on your final straw and what you think would be significantly better. Other than the Rays, there is no other current small market team that is consistently outperforming what the Twins are doing in the past 7 years. Bullpen stats the Twins are outperforming this year. Gallo . . . I guess I agree with you, but right now if Kiriloff is out we do need a first baseman. Gallo even in yesterdays game did nothing with the bat, but may have saved us a run by notifying the coaches the player stepped over the bag. This team ultimately will go as far as Buxton and Correa's bat will take them. If those 2 come along this team could do some damage. I guess for me looking at the whole organization I like what they have developed. They have put a pretty good product on the field but would be better if the bats were performing. I like what is coming up the pipeline and I really like the 2022 and 2023 drafts. There are finally some players that could be all star players. Yes its been 7 years, but they outperformed in 2019 ahead of schedule. I have stated before, even last year the negativity on the boards seems extremely high. I probably just need to ignore it. If I would have a concern its that the Twins in the last 7 years have continually tried to put a competitive team on the field rather than do a full rebuild. Every year they have tried to put a quality product out there. As a fan I can appreciate that. The more times you get a chip and chair the more chance lightening can strike. However taking that approach has also cost the Twins some good prospects (trading away essentially the entirety of the 2021 class) and having lower draft picks in general.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Lets say this team makes the playoff and wins a round, are they suddenly brilliant. What if they give qualifying offers to Maeda and Gray, and they either accept or decline and we get additional picks in next years draft. What if promotions start occurring in the next weak, are they still incompetent? What if they someone catch lightning in a bottle like Philly or Atlanta . . . I am not saying these are base cases but all of these are possibly. To merely dismiss due to either not make move or making moves of prospects slower than your expectations, seem rather an overreach to state you are done with them. This isn't the first time you have made the claim. I would much rather be in our position than White sox, or Tigers. I think Kansas City is beginning to turn a bit of a corner with their bats and defense, but pitching is still going to take a while for them to build up. Lastly I guess you can say we aren't Cleveland. Oh well I will keep cheering on this team.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I also forget Kepler and Polanco who we have options on.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Honestly I think at times they have a lack of belief in some of the players who are not the quote stars. As to the 40 man they are going to have a ton of spots available. There is a chance they could lose a player or to but not likely a mass loss after the season. Floro, Headrick, Henriquez, Maeda, Moran, Ortega, Sands, Winder, SWR, Gray, Alcala, Stewart Hitters Solano, Castro, Gallo, Taylor That is a lot of fluff and individuals coming off the 40 man. We can protect all or most of quality prospects that have popped up.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Dman - the other interesting thing to look at is the player that had been looked at as a possibility for that 3rd pick, Hurley, he is struggling quite a bit in A ball in SSS. Overall the potential value of a high school bat hitting has immense value.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Keaschall is heavily leaning towards being a great pick by the Twins. Winokur however has the possibility of being a top 100 prospect if the bat plays. So far 15 innings at short and 8 in center. You have an athletic player that may need to switch to a corner spot, but if can stay in Center or short (which isn't likely) becomes a beast if the power and average shows up.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He is statistically in the same WAR as the following pitchers - Verlander Burnes, Berrios, Eflin, Alcantara, Gausman, Kirby, Cease Shrezer (.3 War difference) and I expect many more. He is pitching like a #1 to #2 pitcher. Just needs to keep it up.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    That was just a good baseball game, not ugly by any means. A little stressful. I am not sure we win this game without replay though. 2 overturns, and then between Gallo and Baldelli challenging the umps and they changed their minds on the missed 1st base. Now to me whatever he call on the field was doesn't get overturned. I think the runner just knicks the top of 1st base but there may be a better view that what they were playing on TV showing otherwise. Giving up a home run happens, having a 2 run lead was nice. Pablo Lopez is the #1 #2 pitcher we have been pining for for years.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Tommy Pham has been traded, walked out of the stadium in street clothes, now the question is which team is he going to.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    We should be getting some arms back from injury though, we can also move a starter to the bullpen. I feel like we have enough arms to compete, although an extra 1 or 2 would be good.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    They generally only do deals where they think they are getting the much better value, with the exception of last year. That was more of an all in move, and they know it cost them a bit. So I expected to be much more reserved. If trades come to them they will do it, and likely at the last minute.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Hernandez isn't only an upgrade, he is one of the few right handed bats that has been elite in the past that could flip a switch similar to what happened with the braves and the outfielders they traded for a couple years ago. If we are going to get a bat thats the one I want.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Twins catcher depth is actually decent. Add in we were clamoring for a catcher, we got one, Nate Baez came back healthy and has started to perform fairly well in these early stages.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    There is a couple things at play. The first being it appears the Twins want to make a spot for Keuchel. I don't know if this is smart or not, he has looked good in AAA so far. The second is what is the return. In regards to Sonny Gray there are moving parts that greatly affect is worth. The first is his performance has been diminishing throughout the season. Second Twins could offer qualifying offer and get a 1st or second round pick if he signs elsewhere. If he were to retire would get nothing. Most likely unless blown away with an offer you keep Sonny for the remainder of the season. Maeda, may have some value especially the way he has pitched since the all star break. We will see what the outcome is today.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Similar things were said about Robert Smith, Barry Sanders and many others. Money isn't the #1 thing to all people. Once you have created a good nest egg and invested well that extra year or two isn't necessary. Maybe he was playing the reporter, I don't think he is, and with those statement to say there is 0.0000% chance he turns down a big offer to retire . . . I would take that bet any day because the odds are all in my favor.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Other than Festa who may be a sell high candidater - Raya is unlikely as has potential to be #2/#3 pitcher and with health concerns likely wouldn't get the return. The medicals and poor performance would be hindering Martin as well. Likely won't make any big splash anyway, so no prospects in the top 10 are likely traded.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Martin has played well the last 4 days, I am more than fine letting him run in AAA for the rest of the year. Let him get comfortable there, then can be an option next year. He has played, LF, CF and multiple days at 2nd.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    “Wouldn't shock me if I didn't play any more after this year," Gray told Twins MLB.com reporter Do-Hyoung Park. "Wouldn't shock me. Do I want to? Do I think I can? Absolutely. And I can at a very, very high level. It's not about the money. It's whether you still enjoy it, and does your family still enjoy it." Look I think we can all agree Sonny is a different breed. Both good and bad. He is very analytical, tweaking ect. Even though this has been one of his best years, I think he is having a personal struggle of knowing his stuff is beginning to wane a bit and trying to maintain being an elite pitcher. Even myself and my wife had have conversations about at what time could we either cut back on work or retire due to just the daily stress. Sonny doesn't make that statement unless he is serious. I still think he comes back to play, however I am not going to just push that statement to the side. All the money pales into comparison to your family. If he feels he has a large enough next egg, I could see him retiring. If not then yes he could sign a 2-3 year contract.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You also have the possibility that Gray is retiring at the end of the season 9 (I think that possibility is small but it is there). Gray has done everything we should have expected in the trade and then some. Wish he would have just had more support from the bats.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Is this revisionist history??? Other than AA Julien has had better OPS numbers than Wallner at every level. Julien beat Wallner in OBP handedly at every level which would be expected. Its scary how consistent Julien has been at about every level other than A+. A .290/.440/.490 OPS of .930. Just crazy how good he is and continues to be. No decrease even facing better quality pitching. However that doesn't mean Wallner has not had a very good bat and I am hoping continues at the MLB level. He just has a lot more swing and miss than Julien.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Definitely odd, but they seem to want to make a spot for Keuchel. Honestly that pick and the way he has been pitching looks like he is a viable arm for the rest of the year. Our left handed outfileders and currently starting pitching we seem to have excess of, going to be interesting how they will move around pieces. I am expecting at least 2 more trades for the rest of the deadline.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Gray - a lot depends on whether he will retire or not. I would be open to trading if decent prospect, keeping if will continue to pitch and get compensation draft pick for him, or lastly keep him for rest of year even if plans to retire Maeda- I think need to keep Maeda. With Ober currently our best pitchers. Still an outside shot he performs well the rest of year and can also get compensation pick for him. Buxton- I think its slight, but possibility he could be traded, difference in philosophy between him and org, likely offseason trade but worth putting out there and acknowledging MLB players with higher value that could be traded- Ober (would not like to see it, but of our pitchers other than Ryan would likely get best return for), Kiriloff MLB players with some value could be traded - Kepler Wallner Larnach, Balazovic MLB players with minimal value - Gallo Solano, Taylor, Castro Farmer Prospects - Varland, SWR Martin, Canterino, Festa, Sands, Headrick, Prato, Isola, Williams I think this is likely the players that we would likely be swapping in and out. Some have higher possibility that others. Will wait to see what pops up.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Money adds up. An organization can decide how they want to use their financial resources. I can make a valid argument on why it is a reasonable philosophy to continue, and yes you can full state and believe that they should. I guess I am not always willing to be a defender of the front office but I get the strategies and things they have been successful at over the past 5 years. There are things that can be critiqued I am just not sure this is one of those items. As to money 717,000 is what would be the overage, with penalty that is 1,254,750. I don't think that is a drop in the bucket. Thats 1% of payroll. Add up if consistently do it over several years. It adds up. The question becomes what is the benefit from that and will you hit on an extra player from doing it for several years that is worth the extra money that has been spent. Differing opinions is always a good thing, would rather have this than group think.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Its because the Twins have a precedence of not going over. Whether its an overage, or they never want to utilize the penalty its the Twins philosophy. The advantages is you avoid some of the gamesmanship from agents, and if we had gone over in prior years, I can guarantee that Boras would have used it here. So the nuts and bolts is likely a situation where the Twins are paying more for the same prospects before if they were willing to use the overage. I have provided the math and the reasoning why it could actually be a prudent strategy. It all comes down to the success rate on whether this is a good strategy or not. Depth wise the Twins have a pretty strong system, lacking slightly on the extreme top end, but overall very good and will likely only get stronger in the next year or two.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Look I think it would be smart to do. Spend 500k on a higher level prospect late in the draft and see what happens. First though you need a player willing to sign at that level, then you need to see if it hits. So lets realistically look at it. How often does an Edouard Julien hit - 2%, 5% 10%. Throw in high schoolers on top of that - 1% 2% 4%? The odds are not high but they are there. So we have established a low success rate, add in the tax penalty and it is $875,000. Do that 10 years and not hit on a prospect and you are spending first round money for nothing and its better to have saved the money. I think the Twins are taking enough quality bites at the apple in the draft its not as necessary. It is understandable why high revenue teams are willing to constantly go over, but for a small market team you can see the prudency. It also doesn't avoid the Twins from still trying to maneuver their money and get a Julien like they did in 2019. However, that went right down to the wire.
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