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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Looks like we got another high strikeout pitcher in Santos. See what the staff can do with him. Likely a senior sign to save a few dollars, or maybe they really like him.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Just don't tell that to Andrew Cossetti :). I think you can find solid steals through the top 10-11 rounds most year, this year may be even a tad deeper.
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Twins have some college prospects in the pipeline, they could take a few more big swings this year. The two first round picks has not been outside of the wheelhouse of the Twins, however having 2 is a bit odd. Getting a HS player in the 5th round is something that hasn't happened for a couple reasons, the biggest is most HS players don't want to commit for the money being offered. To get a quality player like Questad is a major win for the Twins. It is more upside, the Twins may be giving those who want a lot more pitchers what they want.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Jay Harry, SS — Penn State Straight up, Harry is one of my favorite players in the 2023 MLB Draft. He’s not the most physically gifted player in this class, but there’s not another player in the country who night after night comes into the clubhouse with a filthier jersey. He’s a scrappy kid who gets the most out of his ability. Harry had a strong year posting a .299/.376/.463 slash with 6 homers and 6 stolen bases. He had nearly as many walks, 20, as he did strikeouts (21). Harry saw 45 breaking balls inside the zone north of 80 mph. He made contact on 97 percent of those swings and averaged 94 mph on those batted balls. To be fair to the process, it should be noted Harry had a ton of foul balls on those swings. But the balls he kept between the white lines were pummeled. As previously mentioned, Harry doesn’t have the most intimidating physical tools, but he’s a gritty player who might belong somewhere on day three. All of his raw power presents itself to the pull-side thanks to a whippy bat path. He more often than not utilizes an inside-out swing that neutralizes his power. The whole package will likely never be a double-digit dinger guy, but he’s the type of guy who could run into 25 doubles in a season if given the opportunity. On the high end, maybe he’s a Brad Miller type of profile. Harry is very fun to watch on defense and has a shot to stick at shortstop moving forward.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    https://www.twinkietown.com/2019/6/7/18656038/mlb-draft-2019-minnesota-twins-draft-recap - needless to say I think he was right on the #1 draft pick, but beyond that was a pretty successful draft.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Tanner Hall, solid pick - good command plus changeup. Only 90 mph fastball as high as 94-95. That would be something the staff can work with. Likely a good piece of clay for A and A+ ball.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The media has had concerns on day 2 and 3, most of the thrashing is on the board.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The trend I see right now with both HS hitters is short compact swings. Both with decent to above hit tool with plus power.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Winokur, HS OF - definitely a different feel to this draft than past drafts.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Damn Hurley just went 2 picks before.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Alright, about ready to roll, lets see how they go on day 2, and prepare to be initially disappointed :)
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Yes, it appears he would like to go - but if drafted has a a high bonus demand. Right now the most likely candidates to sign a player like that would be 1. Pittsburg, likely have plenty of ammo after likely signing Skenes to a below slot deal, and possibly the Twins, who also possibly got a below market deal their first 2 picks - its hard to say if the Twins have any savings on their first 3 picks but history shows they likely do. Detroit may have also gotten a deal on Clark as well.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I think the Soto pick was slightly surprising as it wasn't a college player. However the Twins have been willing to take high end HS pitchers shown by the Raya and Petty. As to Keaschall, they may have thought there were higher rated prospects, however if he performs like Schobel, the Twins will have confirmation on picking him where he went. He is a bit of a pop up prospect and seems like he checks off the character category in spades. Go look at most Twins drafts the last couple years, other than last years early picks, they have been continually trashed and fans and media usually highly dislike day 2 and 3 picks, yet they tend to strongly outperform on these picks.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I know some get frustrated with the front office and drafting and especially day 2 but lets even just look at last years draft. 1. Lee 800 OPS in AA - had a heck of a game yesterday, if he can get up to 850 or higher OPS will continue to be a very highly rated prospect. He has a ton of doubles, if a few more of those turn into home runs his OPS will jump. 2. Priellip, injured but looks to still have the elite arm talent worthy of draft slot. 2B. Schobel - one of best hitters in A+ ball 840 OPS over 1.000 OPS in June 4. Morris - Low 3 ERA in A ball 5. Ross - 780 OPS A+ 6. Ortega - 820 OPS A+ 7. Jones -4.53 ERA A+ 8. Matthews - 3.7 ERA A+ 9. Lewis - 2.29 ERA A+ 10. Shuffield - 780 OPS A ball 11. Cossetti - 950 OPS A+ Ball Now all these players will likely not perform as they move up, but some well, and the more you have - the better chance 1 or more will be solid or better MLB players. Right now the success rate on last years draft is stupidly good, and that is currently without Priellip being healthy and pitching.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Since 2018, the Twins have outproduced their draft capital and have used a lot of it to supplement their big league team. Right now the teams are some of the most competitive in the minor leagues than they have ever been and will have multiple reinforcements coming with this draft. I hate playing next years draft as well, but the Twins will likely again have multiple picks, possibly 4 in the top 2 rounds. Drafting is hit and miss. I think the primary thing which I like the last year or two, is the Twins refocusing on hit tool, rather than just power. That should pay dividends in the future.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The other pick that has been mentioned and most would love is Cameron Johnson. 6'5" - has elite arm talent and is a lefty. There are some signability concerns. Another possibility the Twins or another team have something set up with the player. Will have to wait and see.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Doc, what this draft is telling you is a couple things, the Twins are placing a premium on character, and then looking to see if the player has the tools that match the character. All 3 picks so far this year, the character has been off the charts. The Twins said Keaschall was one of the most impressive people they interviewed. Hey I am good with that. If he performs as well as Schobel we will be happy.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Wide net to cast. If I were a betting man based on their previous mutual interest between the player and team, I could see Hurley. beyond that gets a bit more murky. If not another bat, would be college pitcher that they like of the ones remaining. Hunter Owen is 6'6", He has a fastball that could improve, slight health issues. Has SO/9 of 10.7, last year 12.8. Watts-Brown is 6'3" had an eye popping 13.6 SO/9. Had some control issues and needs to gain some speed on the fastball. Tanner Witt is 6'5", seems like someone you could get later in the draft. Really struggled after injury but has the arm talent. Mcgraw has elite arm talent but hasn't been able to stay healthy. As to the bats not sure who they would be focusing on.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You are looking at next years need vs where these prospects will be at which is low A, High A and AA. As to next year, the top of your rotation is headed by Lopez and Ryan, then Ober as a reliable #3. Then you will have Varland, Paddack who should be back, plus possibly 1-2 others who the Twins will sign in free agency. You will still have others such as Winder who could be a 5th starter. For future years, Raya, Festa, Priellipp (? regarding health) , SWR, Matthews, Lewis and even Culpepper give you enough arms that could potentially be starters. Then you can develop Soto and whoever else the Twins draft this year. This is also ignoring that we can offer a Qualifying offer to Gray. Either he takes it, assuming he doesn't fall apart the remainder of the season, or he gets signed and we receive a comp pick in next years draft. We have a legitimate shot at 3 picks in the first round which should again be a strong draft due to the residuals of Covid and the 2020 draft year.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If what happens with our 3rd pick happens and I have a sneaky suspicion we get Hurley, and this was just a swapping of picks because they really liked Keaschall, I think everyone will be very happy with this draft. We will have 4 very high rated prospects. Even if it is not Hurley the draft will be a success, it will just be filling in with prospects the Twins hope they can develop a few diamonds in the rough.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Where exactly are we short on pitching prospects? We pick just as many pitchers as batters its that we tend to pick them later, as the Twins have a fairly strong plan that has identified pitchers that can have additional success with better coaching. This has had good success in the last couple of years.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    RJA I get exactly what you are saying. However your parameters are so restrictive it takes away of the overall strategy of what the Twins have done. The other is the depth of the Twins pitching staff and in the minors should make it less necessary for the Twins to make multiple trades for pitching in the future.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Heck of a first day for the draft. I expect to see 2-4 college hitters in the next several picks and then a slew of developmental pitchers based on past history. I am curious to see if the Twins cut a deal with Hurley, or someone else for there 3rd round pick, a la Blayne Enlow. May have been a situation where they flip flopped 2nd and 3rd picks because they thought they could get the other player later. Not sure will have to wait and see. Having 2 high upside picks in the first round will be fun to watch them develop. Now we are getting to where the Twins have excelled in the last couple of years. Find college bats early, and then pick lots and lots of arms. They have said this was a deep draft in the early rounds because of the 2020 pandemic almost combining 2 years together. I will be curious if the depth in the later rounds will carry through.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Its easier to get a league average Catcher than it is to get a #1 or #2 starting pitcher. Ultimately the ceiling of each greatly changes the value. If you only see Lowder as a #3/#4 I think you are drastically undercutting his potential.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The reasoning is we can flip hitters for pitching, which we flipped Arreaz. As to 1st round, who cares if its first round or not, they are going with the law of averages, and to have both Steer and CES used in a trade even if I disagreed with it, is a valid claim. I don't get excluding 1st rounders as a valid argument. Yes a couple of the 1st rounders haven't panned out, but a majority have big league talent, it is just needing to show their full potential on the field.
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