Greggory Masterson

This is the key to all of this. They need to handle those permanent decisions well. I kept track during the season, and waiving Luplow late in the year was essentially the most permanent decision made in 2023. Otherwise every move was reversable if needed (and they even went back on the Luplow DFA to just send him down instead; still not sure how that worked.)

Among logical fallacies, the Fallacy Fallacy is one of the more popular ones, as well. Joshing, of course, but can't a man make a turn of phrase to mean that they'll be here eventually but don't need to be rushed? (I'm also not sure that we're describing the appeal to authority here, but I digress)

It might not have come through in the writing, so that’s on me, but I was thinking big league roles rather than actual positions. Martin is the only one I’ve seen get any true steam for a starting role, that being in center. I’ve seen some call for a runway being cleared for Lee, as well though. However, I’ve seen all the names on the list get support for an OD role of some sort—4th outfielder, platoon infielder, backup catcher, at minimum. I’m calling for that not to be plan A is all.

We’re all excited to see what’s in store for these guys, but now’s not the time for the Twins to get cute with it. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports Pump the brakes on Brooks Lee. For that matter, the same applies to Austin Martin, Yunior Severino, Jair Camargo, Chris Williams, and DaShawn Keirsey. Lee is the third baseman of the future, hopefully. Martin, Severino, Camargo, Williams, and Keirsey will all likely appear in games for the Twins at some point during 2024, but we don’t need to put the cart before the horse. The Twins have a number of decisions to make with an already crowded infield, a questionable mix at first base, a backup catcher making $10 million in both 2024 and 2025, a hole in centerfield, and an unclear budget for making additions. Many of the aforementioned names could be written in as key contributors in those spots. However, none of those players are beating down the hatches. Lee has 60 games at AAA with a mediocre August and a solid September. Martin similarly has 59 games and one outstanding month in St. Paul. Severino and Keirsey have even less than that. Williams and Camargo are both in their mid-20s coming off great offensive years, but they still haven’t gotten a single plate appearance in MLB. None should be the answer to any question at the beginning of 2024. It would put the Twins in a very difficult spot. If Martin or Keirsey are your personal long-term answer in center field, you’re welcome to that. You might see Camargo as a long-term backup catcher, replacing Vazquez. Forcing that to happen in March is a problem. The recent success of rookies Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner has been incredible, but it’s important not to expect that level of production to be the norm, even for prospects at the top of organizational rankings. It’s not normal. Their success was exceptional. They themselves may struggle to find the same level of success going forward. So often prospects, even those who are hyped and go on to have great careers, struggle in their early stints. Names like Torii Hunter or Michael Cuddyer come to mind, struggling for years to find their footings before becoming mainstays in the Twins lineup for a decade. Other prospects don’t manage to get their footing at all, such as more recent examples like Stephen Gonsalves, Alex Meyer, Oswaldo Arcia, or Joe Benson. It’s difficult to project success, even in players at the upper levels of the minor leagues. Both Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach have shown flashes of being very good players, but they have also gone through extended stretches that cast a cloud over their long-term outlook—and both were Opening Day starter in 2023. If that’s not the organization showing a reliance on them, I’m not sure what is. Fortunately, Miranda and Larnach were able to be replaced by Lewis and Wallner, respectively, but it would be foolish to assume that that outcome was always a given. What if the team didn’t open the season with Lewis and Wallner in reserve as alternative options? What if they were going to sink or swim with Miranda and Larnach? They would have been in trouble. Likewise, starting 2024 with upper minors depth in key roles is asking for the same. The Twins clearly have a philosophy in this type of situation, and it’s probably the right one—they want depth. That’s exposed in the acquisitions of players like Michael A. Taylor, Joey Gallo, and Donovan Solano. Granted, not all of these types of acquisitions are beneficial, but that’s kind of the point. They want options. Do those options sometimes block our favorite prospects on the depth chart? Sure. But it also allows those prospects to be a short-term backup plan, protecting them and the team. Blocking prospects is the cost of bringing in big league depth. Beginning the year with some sort of big leaguer in those roles ensures better talent is in the organization. Those same big leaguers wouldn’t take a minor league deal to serve as a backup to the prospects. The decision is effectively between bringing in an MLB veteran and having a top prospect as a backup or having a top prospect with a minor league veteran as a backup plan. One of those plans has a better rate of success. It’s risky business trusting a big league role to someone who’s never seen an MLB pitch, and it can go wrong in any number of ways, be it performance or injury. Sure, the MLB veteran could struggle or get injured too, but it’s much more comforting to be able to turn to a top prospect than a career minor leaguer in that event. If any of the aforementioned players do break camp with the team, it’s not the end of the world. They all have the potential to be competent pieces at minimum. It just shouldn’t be what any of us are clamoring for. They’ll be here when it’s time. Right now, the Twins have a division to win. View full article

Sonny Gray needs a replacement. Who that replacement needs to be depends on what you see Sonny Gray as. Let's explore the many Sonny Grays. Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports Sonny Gray was the 2023 Minnesota Twins Most Valuable Player. He’s also an impending free agent, and all signs point to him not being a Minnesota Twin in 2023. He will likely reject the one-year, $20 million qualifying offer, and the Derek Falvey regime has never signed a starting pitcher to the money that Gray’s market will demand. If Gray is not returning, he has to be replaced. However, replacing Gray could mean several different things. The answer to “How will the Twins replace Sonny Gray?” probably depends on what you personally mean by “Sonny Gray.” Here are five interpretations of what “replacing Sonny Gray” means and what it would take in free agency. A Starting Pitcher This one is the easiest. If Sonny Gray is gone, the bare minimum that needs to happen is that he is replaced in the starting rotation. Technically, any pitcher will do. Gray threw 184 innings in 2023—the third most of his career and his most innings since 2015. Someone needs to throw those innings. That someone could be an internal option like Louie Varland or David Festa or any free agent pitcher, even someone in the Old Friend Kyle Gibson or Martin Perez Bin. For all of our sakes, it should not be one of them, but that’s the barest of minimums that prevents Nick Gordon from pitching every fifth day. A Playoff Starter Gray started two of the Twins’ six playoff games in 2023. Although he did not pitch Game 1, as the honor was given to Pablo Lopez, in many seasons Gray would have been given the ball to start the first game of the postseason. Lopez made two starts, and Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were each given a start, though they were effectively used as openers. Perhaps in 2024, the two younger arms will have earned the trust to be a true playoff starter, but that, again, is a role that will be necessary to fill. If Gray does not return, there needs to be another starter in the rotation that the Twins feel comfortable handling a spot in the playoff rotation. Gray had a season that set him up to be a Game 1 or 2 starter, but someone also needs to pitch a Game 3 or 4. Hypothetically, that would be a top-40 pitcher in the league, at minimum. Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Wacha, or someone of that ilk, would fit this role. A Frontline Starter Gray was not just a quality starter; he performed as one of the top starters in baseball. Every five days, he was one of the pitchers trusted to keep his team in every game he started. Although he only won eight games, the Twins had his starts circled on their calendars as winnable games, regardless of who they played. Replacing that type of starter is increasingly more work. On the free agent market, you’re getting into the $20 million average annual value space. Replacing Gray this way would require finding another pitcher to pair with Lopez as a 1, a 1b, or a 2. At the barest of minimums, this starter would need to be better than Joe Ryan—though Ryan has shown flashes of getting to this level himself. Bringing in that frontline starter, if not Gray, would require shopping in the Aaron Nola or Yoshinobu Yamamoto market. There are only a handful of these players, and they’re expensive. Derek Falvey, although he has courted this type of pitcher in the past, has never successfully signed one as a free agent. A Cy Young Candidate Gray will finish at minimum in the top three spots for the American League Cy Young Award, meaning that he performed at an elite level in 2023, doing all that the Twins could have asked of him when they traded the 2021 first-round pick Chase Petty for him. That type of pitcher, as it stands, does not reside in the free agent list. There are no Gerrit Coles or Justin Verlanders. The moment has passed for current free agent Clayton Kershaw. The closest match is that of Blake Snell, a former winner himself, who is surrounded by questions related to his walk rate and age, Any team hoping to sign a Cy Young-caliber starter in free agency in any year without the budget of the Yankees or the Dodgers is fighting a losing battle. Gray himself is not that guy. He probably just pitched the best season of his career, and he’s reached his mid-30s. Even re-signing him doesn’t fill that hole. Approximately Five Wins Above Replacement This concept was explored recently by Hunter McCall. Gray, according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, was worth approximately 5 WAR. As discussed in the previous section, it’s hard to find a solution in free agency that will make up for his loss on its own. Sonny Gray probably won’t have a 5 WAR season himself. To paraphrase Moneyball, the Twins need to replace Gray in the aggregate. It doesn’t need to a single replacement worth 5 WAR. Unless they were to trade for a player and make a year-to-year improvement with him as they did with Lopez, that WAR must come from multiple sources. The Twins are replacing both Gray and Kenta Maeda (about 1.5 WAR) this offseason—presumably with Chris Paddack and some other pitcher. If the Twins were to sign a top-flight free agent who was worth 4 WAR in 2024, and Paddack was worth 3 WAR, they would have made up for Gray in the aggregate. If the new free agent was worth 2.5 WAR, Paddack was worth 2.5, and then Ryan and Ober each raised their own by 1 WAR, they will have made up for Gray’s absence in the aggregate. There are many ways to reach that magic number, but whatever the Twins come up with must work. The solution and necessary work come down to the interpretation of what Gray meant to this year’s team. What is your read on the situation? What do you need to see from the Twins to believe that Gray will have been replaced in 2024? Leave a comment. View full article

You will pay for your insolence!

I’m not really sure what you mean by this comment. What fantasy land are you referring to, based on the content of this post?

Just checked, and all of the information is there!

It’s a frustrating situation. As we formulate our own opinions about what the Twins should do about the Byron Buxton conundrum, it’s important to understand all of the information we have. Whether you hope to provide an opinion on how his recovery should be handled, whether he’ll play center field in 2024 if ever again, or if he should retire, we need to keep in mind the facts about Buxton’s knee that we personally know. Here they are:

From your assessment, it looks like my intentions came through well. I appreciate the compliment.

I need constructive criticism.

Very proud to have come up with that one on the fly. Really ties the piece together.

We've all been there before, battling against a Pollyanna Twins fan who just doesn't get it! The guy is a bum! As they obstinately prattle on citing reason or having watched an MLB game before, the rage grows inside of you until you remember your trump card: He's just another Miguel Sano. For your reference, I've compiled a list of 2023 Twins hitters and why they're just another Miguel Sano. If you ever meet someone who just won't listen to a baseball genius like yourself, you'll always have this argument. Christian Vazquez: Overpaid albatross of a contract the Twins will never win paying him 10 million a year! Just another Miguel Sano! Carlos Correa: OVERPAID! Rod in his leg! Big arm but nothing else! Just another Miguel Sano! Byron Buxton: Always hurt! Strikes out too much! I thought I was promised him and Sano were going to lead this team to multiple World Series whatever happened to that! Just another Miguel Sano! Max Kepler: Had a pop-up year in 2019 and has done NOTHING since! Just another Miguel Sano! Jorge Polanco: Another bust who only made one All Star team! I was promised 12 more! Just another Miguel Sano! Jordan Luplow: Was on waivers just like Sano should have been! Just another Miguel Sano! Ryan Jeffers: Big lumbering oaf who strikes out too much! Just another Miguel Sano! Michael A. Taylor: Runs into one once in a while but everything else is a strikeout! Just another Miguel Sano! Matt Wallner: Big arm one-trick-pony who strikes out looking too much! Just another Miguel Sano! Willi Castro: Swings at everything! No plate discipline! Just another Miguel Sano! Edouard Julien: A butcher in the field and takes too many strikes! Goes up looking to walk! Just another Miguel Sano! Jose Miranda: Bad third baseman who swings at everything! Just another Miguel Sano! Trevor Larnach: Too many strikeouts! Just another Miguel Sano! Kyle Garlick: Supposed to hit righties but doesn't! Just another Miguel Sano! Donovan Solano: A butcher at third base! Just another Miguel Sano! Gilberto Celestino: Saw him a couple years ago but not sure where he is now! Just another Miguel Sano! Kyle Farmer: Actually no I like him he works really hard he plays the game the right way and isn't afraid to get dirty I'd let him date my daughter. Nick Gordon: Bust who used to be a shortstop! Just another Miguel Sano! Andrew Stevenson: Killed the ball in the minors but can't hit MLB pitching! Just another Miguel Sano! Alex Kirilloff: Made an error at first base! Always injured! Never lived up to the hype! Just another Miguel Sano! Royce, Lewis,: Third baseman who's always hurt! Gets away with it because he's overhyped! Just another Miguel Sano! Joey Gallo: *enters cardiac arrest*

I also think that the answer is going to need to be internal. Hopefully one of the AAA bats or Jose Miranda can fill in the gap. I’m not willing to bet on Solano repeating and probably getting more money, and given this year’s results discussed in the article, I have very little faith a veteran can be counted on to fill that hole. My initial thought on Solano was that he’d play out the first half of the season as a placeholder until other bats were deemed ready. Maybe something similar happens with worse results, but I don’t expect a Solano season from anyone they’d bring in like that

Donovan Solano wasn't the first name most people thought of when looking for a platoon bat last offseason. But many of the names that did come to mind fared much, much worse than he did in 2023. It's going to be hard to find a replacement. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Donovan Solano is a 35-year-old utility infielder with 32 career home runs. He signed for $2 million last offseason to be an emergency option at second or third base and play first base or DH against lefthanded starters for the Twins. Donovan Solano also was third in plate appearances and fourth in OPS among Twins in 2023. Solano was an afterthought coming into 2023. Although he was the National League’s Silver Slugger in the shortened 2020 season, he was never a renowned hitter and was merely league-average at the dish in 2021 and 2022. Furthermore, he was no longer considered a good defensive second baseman, mostly playing first base and designated hitter in 2022. Going into the 2023 season, one of the Twins’ top needs was a competent right-handed bat, primarily to platoon and play some corner position. Between Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon in Minnesota, and Edouard Julien in St. Paul, the Twins had more than enough lefties and needed a bit of salt to their pepper. The December signing of lefty Joey Gallo was not that salt. However, by the beginning of spring training, there still was no platoon bat to be found on the roster. It may have ended up being Kyle Garlick by default had Solano not signed for $2 million to no fanfare. It bears repeating that Solano was a top-5 hitter for the Twins. He played first base more than anyone else on the roster—a bat-first position—and he was an above-average hitter, right around the average OPS for first basemen and designated hitters in 2023 (Solano’s OPS was .760—10% above league average—compared to .775 and .756 for first basemen and designated hitters, respectively). With Solano’s contract expiring and him being 36 by the beginning of next season, it seems unlikely he will be back with the Twins in 2024, filling a similar role. Hence, it stands to reason that his role would need a replacement—some sort of right-handed corner bat who can platoon against lefties and tread water against righties if needed. Corner positions are the easiest to find competent bats, so logic would suggest that it shouldn’t take too much work to find someone to fill Solano’s shoes. The Twins themselves found him during spring training and committed 1.3% of the 2023 payroll to him. In theory, these bit players are a dime a dozen. In practice, however, finding the right player requires a bit more work. Now, this role player could already be in the system, as someone like Chris Williams or Michael Helman could be options there. Jose Miranda could regain his footing and take hold of that role as well. However, if the Twins feel more comfortable finding a veteran for that role, they must choose wisely. Let me show you. At the beginning of the season, I selected 10 Solano-adjacent players to follow through the year. They were each free agents coming into 2023 and comparable to Solano in some way, mostly in role, handedness, and salary Among right-handed first base or designated hitter types, I chose Nelson Cruz ($1 million salary), Luke Voit ($2 million with a $12 million team option for 2024), Yuli Gurriel ($1.25 million), Jesus Aguilar ($3.2 million), and Andrew McCutchen ($5 million). I included Mike Moustakas ($740,000) based on name recognition. I also selected right-handed or switch-hitting outfielders Wil Myers ($7 million), Jurickson Profar ($7.75 million), and AJ Pollack ($7 million), as well as third baseman Evan Longoria ($4 million). Had the Twins brought any of those guys to camp, the reaction would probably have been at least at the minimal level that Solano’s was. 2023 went well for Solano. It went poorly for almost every other name on that list. Only McCutchen had an above-average OPS (113 OPS+, compared to Solano’s 110). Longoria was the only player beyond McCutchen to be rated as better than replacement level, per Baseball Reference (1.5 rWAR for McCutchen, 0.5 rWAR for Longoria, 1.8 rWAR for Solano). The other eight players registered negative WAR. Three players had a season OPS that started with a five: Voit (.548), Myers (.541), and Pollock (.524). Gurriel, signed to be Miami’s everyday first baseman, joined McCutchen and Longoria as the only player to remain on the team’s roster all year. However, he played only 108 games and registered 329 plate appearances, compared to Solano’s 134 and 450 plate appearances. The other seven players didn’t make it through the year with their new teams. Colorado traded away Moustakas to the Angels and Profar to the Padres at the deadline. Profar in particular was a curious case, as he left Colorado with -1.7 WAR then only played 14 games for the Padres, but hit quite well in that short opportunity. Pollock was traded for a player to be named later from Seattle to San Francisco, where he had six plate appearances before being released. Cruz and Myers were released by San Diego and Cincinnati, respectively, in the middle of the year. Neither found a place to play out the rest of the season. Aguilar was released by the (with all due respect) opossum shelter that is the Oakland A’s. The Braves signed him but never played a game above AAA. Voit takes the cake for the released crowd, as Milwaukee released him not once but twice. After the second release, he signed with the Mets but didn’t play a game. His $12 million option will not be getting picked up. It’s easy to look at the value that Solano gave the Twins and assume that another affordable corner bat can be picked up easily, but the recent past suggests that finding that savvy veteran bat is more complicated than we might think. View full article

He doesn't compete in softball derbies anymore!

I'm not staking a claim in Martin being ready (or Brooks Lee, to be frank, but that's neither here nor there); I was just using that as a potential point of optimism that fans may be fast-forwarding to instead of appreciating the here and now.

I didn't write this to memorialize some world-beating, all-time great team. I want fans to take a moment and appreciate the highs and lows of the season before immediately pivoting into looking ahead. The Twins were overmatched in this series and didn't execute. But there was a lot of fun watching them between March and October. If you're not satisfied with the outcome, more power to you. I wouldn't put myself in the satisfied camp, either. But we watch baseball because we love the game and we love watching our favorite team. If you wait all season for the outcome of the postseason to decide whether it was time well spent, you're going to spend a lot of your life deciding that you hated your hobby post hoc. This season was fun. Not perfect, but fun. It's not worth screwing ourselves up in knots to will the team to victory when we have no power to change anything. There is no "demanding more." It's frankly unhealthy to put stock in trying to affect outcomes you can't control. If you can't enjoy a season for what it is, I don't know why you're watching in the first place. I'm not satisfied in the outcome, but I took pleasure in watching a competitive team. You don't know what will happen next year.

7 months of hindsight will make some decisions pretty clear

It's over. But take time to appreciate it for what it was when you're ready. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Maybe you're the crying type. Maybe you're the angry type. Maybe you're the type to bury it and not admit it hurts. But it does. You wouldn't be reading this if you didn't care about your Minnesota Twins. Whatever emotions you want to engage with, engage with them. Whatever complaints you have about the end of the season—whether it's with the manager, the hitters, the pitchers, the front office, the umpires, or TC Bear (he knows what he did)—let them be heard. The end comes at least one game too early for 29 teams, and it came for your Minnesota Twins. I won't tell you how to mourn this season or how long it should affect you. Pardon my French, Edouard Julien, but it sucks. When you're ready to start looking forward to next year, we'll be here for that. You'll have plenty of opportunity to read about next year's potential. Free agent targets, projections, trade candidates, philosophic waxing, and everything in between will fill the front page. Hope springs eternal. There's so much to be excited about next year. Nearly all of the pieces of the 2023 team are already penciled in for 2024. The top-flight rotation and bullpen may see minimal turnover. It's easy to dream on the promising starts to the careers of rookies Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner. Carlos Correa's foot will hopefully be healed and ready for Opening Day. An offseason will help Byron Buxton. Top prospects like Brooks Lee and Austin Martin are ready to join the mix. But that's not today. No one will blame you for looking ahead to next year. There's a lot of reason to believe that the 2024 team can be better than this year's team as young players take the next steps and season-long injuries can heal. However, we need to appreciate what we just watched. Coming into the year, very few analysts, experts, or pundits picked Minnesota to win the Central. There was more steam behind them securing the third seed in the worst division in baseball than there was that they would get a playoff berth. Yet here they stand. The Twins had a pitching staff that competed for the best in the game, besting any Minnesota squad from the past three decades, at minimum. Two pitchers—Sonny Gray and Pablo López—will likely rank in the top eight in Cy Young voting in the American League. We got to watch that. A trio of rookies—Lewis, Julien, and Wallner—injected so much energy into this organization. Although our instincts tell us they will only improve, it's not guaranteed. Frankly, this could be the best season that any of them ever have. They may play at this level for most of their careers. We don't know what the future holds for them. We do know how they made us feel this year, though. What happens next year, or in the years down the road, doesn't change the fun that it was for this team. After back-to-back-to-back division championships between 2002 and 2004, expectations were great. Surely 2005 would be the year they take the next step and get back into a deep playoff run. We know how that ended. An incredible core of young and controllable talent led the 2016 Cubs to the Promised Land for the first time in 108 years. Surely a young team like that could contend for the World Series for a decade. It's been seven years, they've won one playoff game since, and the core is completely disbanded. This isn't an attempt to put a damper on your dreams. It's a call to appreciate what you watched this season. Sure. This team struck out way more than anyone would like. We all pulled our hair out watching called strike threes on middle-middle fastballs. The offense was positively anemic for half the year, and once they got themselves figured out, the stellar pitching's wheels began to wobble. Inexplicable injuries seemed to pile up, and no timetables were ever clear. The two most highly-paid players were dragged down by season-long, nagging injuries. But this team won the division. But fans got to watch meaningful October baseball. But those in attendance got to revitalize and call up the ghosts of the crowd that used to inhabit the Hubert. H. Humphrey Metrodome. But this was the team that broke the streak. No longer will it be brought up on national broadcasts that the Twins had lost their previous 18 playoff games. No one will talk about 2004 again. This was the team that made it happen. From breaking the longest playoff losing streak in North American professional sports history to the individual moments of joy watching the Max Kepler resurgence or a Jorge Polanco professional plate appearance. This team provided joy. Appreciate it before turning the page to next year. Appreciate the energy of Kyle Farmer, the emergence of Ryan Jeffers, the chaos of Willi Castro, the random bombs from Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo, and the barrels into the gap of Donovan Solano. Appreciate an entire bullpen throwing gas, Jhoan Durán and Caleb Thielbar's elite curveballs, Brock Stewart's comeback story, Emilio Pagán's redemption arc, the Dallas Keuchel experience, the late-season moves to the pen of Louie Varland and Chris Paddack, and one of (if not the) best starting rotations in Twins history: Gray, López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda, Varland, Tyler Mahle, Keuchel, and José De León. Appreciate how this season made you feel, and the fun you had along the way, before looking into who should get a qualifying offer. Thank you, everyone, for this season—especially those of you who work at 1 Twins Way. View full article

It’s a question many fans have been asking. After two games, we might have an answer. On May 22, 2023, the San Francisco Giants did damage to Twins fans’ psyches. In the second inning of the game, Sean Manaea entered from the bullpen. Before then-promising rookie Edouard Julien had a chance to register a single plate appearance, he was lifted for Donovan Solano. Likewise, in the third inning, young, exciting first baseman Alex Kirilloff was lifted for platoon bat Kyle Garlick. By the end of the third inning, two fan-favorite hitters were removed with one plate appearance combined. Understandably, fans were upset. Baldelli’s penchant for pinch-hitting had gone too far. The Twins had to spend the rest of the game with platoon bats hitting, and Julien and Kirilloff were no longer available. We asked the question here. Would the Twins use the same aggressiveness? The Twins were one of the top-performing teams in the league using pinch hitters, and they were especially effective in the second half. But could Baldelli get played like a fiddle by a savvy manager? What if the other team brought in a lefty early? Would he again fall for it and burn his bench in the second inning? We’ve already gotten some indication as to how he’ll handle it. In the first game of the Wild Card round, Blue Jays manager John Schneider called lefty Tim Mayza in from the bullpen in the fifth inning, a man on first, and Max Kepler—a lefty—up to bat. Baldelli left Kepler, who has hit lefties well this year, in the game, and he hit a single. Baldelli opened the bench with runners on first and second and a lefty in Kirilloff batting, calling on pinch-hitting extraordinaire Donovan Solano. It was a big-ish spot in a 3-0 game, as a signature Solano barrel into the gap could score another run or two, and Kirilloff has struggled against lefties in his career. Solano flew out to right and remained in the game. Willi Castro came in for Matt Wallner as a defensive replacement after Wallner’s plate appearance in the seventh inning. Kyle Farmer also hit for Julien in the seventh inning, with Genesis Cabrera, a lefty, in for Toronto. Farmer was expected to enter the game for Julien late anyway to tighten up the infield defense, and the lefty coming in just made it a more obvious spot. Even the staunchest critics of Baldelli’s antics would allow these moves. But what if the Blue Jays pulled a Manaea on them? Let’s revisit that day and add some context. Everyone knew the Giants were planning to use an opener, John Brebbia, that day in May, but there was uncertainty as to who would follow him. Manaea, a career-long starter, was a suspect, as he had a disastrous start to his season and had come into three games to that point from the bullpen already. However, in full view of everyone, Manaea threw a bullpen at Target Field that afternoon. As such, the Twins had assumed he would not be an option in that night’s game, as pitchers don’t usually throw bullpen sessions before pitching multiple innings. The lineup was constructed based on the assumption that Manaea wouldn’t be an option. They were caught with their pants down. It didn’t help that the Twins were already down four runs in the second inning. All of these factors provide some justification for what transpired that day—but it still was a miscue. So, what if something similar happened in the playoffs? An astute manager might pull one over on Baldelli again and, hypothetically, bring in lefty starter Yusei Kikuchi in relief of righty starter Jose Berrios in the fourth inning of a tie ball game. Just such a thing happened. With one on and no one out, Kikuchi was brought in at the same spot in the order that Mayza was the day prior. Once again, Kepler remained in the game. Once again, he reached on a single against a lefty. Once again, with two on, Donovan Solano entered the game for Kirilloff. He walked, setting up a Carlos Correa single to drive in the first run of the game. After that, Wallner was lifted for Castro—a move that didn’t happen until the seventh inning the day prior—due to defense and not hitting. However, the team was in a position that necessitated a ball be put in play and another run score. Wallner has not hit lefties well and strikes out a lot. Castro did his job, though it resulted in a double-play. Still, the score was now 2-0 Minnesota. “Sure, the situation is a nice cover, Gregg! Baldelli would have pulled them in the fourth anyway!” you yell at your screen. I counter. In the fifth inning, the third prime candidate for being platooned came up to bat against Kikuchi. Julien was allowed to hit, and Farmer stayed on the bench. The difference? Probably that there was no one on base and one out when Julien had his turn. Farmer would later pinch-run for Julien in the seventh, after Julien had another crack at a righty—with a man on base. Maybe two games isn’t enough time to detect a pattern, but it looks like Baldelli has a strategy in mind. He won’t take the superior hitters out of the lineup early unless he has reason to believe it’s a critical moment—men on base in a tight game. You don’t know if you’ll get another chance, so gamble now, but don’t pull one of your best hitters just because you can. With Houston coming up, it’s doubtful we’ll see too many of these scenarios. They have one lefty starter—Framber Valdez—and a couple of lefty relievers who seem unlikely to make the ALDS roster. Once Valdez leaves his start, the lefties will come in to finish the game. If one of the lower-level lefty relievers does make the roster, I’m sure Baldelli and fans will have no issue with Donovan Solano hitting against him. There’s reason for even skeptical fans to believe that the bench will be handled competently, even if opposing managers dig into their bag of tricks. View full article