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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    They just won 17 out of 20 games prior to Yankee series……they started terribly and are 2.5 games out of 1st place in Division…….Sands has had a couple bad innings after being excellent for weeks ……..Kepler, since coming back April 21, has 7 hits for RBI with two outs and he’s hit near .400. Not sure what your expectations are?
  2. JD-TWINS
    Polo trade needed to be made regardless - Julien was going to play 2B & Lee is coming at some point…….either DH, 3B or 2B. Polanco, as of Thursday, was leading the A.L. in strikeouts and hitting .192…….,and needed some time off due to tight hamstring. They got a young kid that’s a top 100 prospect on neutral observer list. Topa has the capability to help win games…….maybe not until ‘25 - that would be a drag but it’s possible. I get it, gotta get in the field to help team. Same issue with Jorge. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is hitting .231 with an OPS+ of 88……..2 steals & 5 homers. He’s making $14M/yr for next 3 years……………Margot costs $5.5M and a cheap buyout for ‘25……..he’s terrible…….can’t argue that, but no evidence that at 29 he was going to play like he’s 39. He’s hitting 83 points less than last year and almost 100 points less than ‘22. Lourdes is no savior though & at $14M, not a great value!!
  3. JD-TWINS
    I live in Cincinnati and watch every Twins game I choose to………any other game in MLB as well, daily. People have Apple TV to watch tonight’s game but refuse to get Prime? $149/year on Prime and MLB subscription gets you every game broadcast. …………maybe (my ignorance) there’s a blackout for local broadcast??Assume this works wherever one resides - maybe not?
  4. JD-TWINS
    Seems dramatic - the series absolutely sucked - however, we’re down our 6th/7th best offensive weapon and CF in Buxton as well as our best hitter in Lewis. The Yankees are down a diminishing D.J. LaMahue. Make a catch in LF yesterday (Kirilloff) & remember there’s only 1 out on the fly ball in game 1 (Castro) & we had 2 decent starts v. Yankees. The Yanks are the best team in the A.L. at this point and second best record in baseball. Still embarrassing but not end of the world. I think Twins will be fine in Playoffs if full strength. Concerned about Julien - still too many K’s. Were getting production with K’s previously - lately, not much of anything!! Kirilloff/Wallner/Larnach will give us one decent option in LF by October……this will sort out. Could use Lee’s bat from Left Side as DH sooner than later………any update on him starting to rehab?
  5. JD-TWINS
    I was the biggest proponent for 3 months to sign Montgomery. The Rangers are an odd example as they have Scherzer & deGrom on their payroll. The post is about the cheap ownership of the Twins……..not the hyper aggressive front office of the Twins (that doesn’t exist) Cole Ragans is now K.C.’s future pitching anchor. How did the Mahle trade work out for the Twins??
  6. JD-TWINS
    They don’t grow on trees - these “top starting pitchers” available at the deadline. With the aforementioned frugal ownership position, it’s going to be pretty difficult to be in the mix. We’ll use up a good player/prospect or three and it will be for a 2 month rental as there’s no intention of paying anyone into the future. Don’t see this approach as realistic, nor smart.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Canterino has never been healthy more than 2 weeks at a time. I see him as a stretch to ever pitch in the Show…….Varland is (has to be) starter depth until at least mid-August if not longer. He’ll be in the Pen by September 10th. Alcala will be back as needed for innings relief in the short-term…….don’t get the “sympathy” push for Alcala, due to his mistreatment? He gave up runs in one outing……..how badly mismanaged could have been? The long outing, where he did get knocked around, he got a bad missed strike call - he made some poor pitches - they were out of arms in the Pen and needed him to finish. If they bring Balazovic back, he’s got to be awfully good or he gets replaced and DFA’d……maybe in June if there’s a spot, a need. Jensen & Winder (if healthy) are both reasonable options as well!!
  8. JD-TWINS
    I would think they are independent of each other as they are both depth options at this point. ………If there’s an injury, Varland is up next. If everything is stable, I see Festa getting an opportunity in a month. Something will happen with rotation guys and Varland will be needed over next 12 weeks. Essentially a certainty aligned with history across any staff in the game. Once September arrives, assuming Festa is an option as depth starter, Varland can shift to Pen……..really don’t see that timing changing.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Mid-June is my assumption for him getting his feet wet in the Show. He’ll have an opportunity to throw 5 plus innings 2-3 times between now and then. I think he’ll come up for a game to get a feel at Target. Then back in August for a handful of starts over 4-5 weeks to let other rotation guys skip a start or two. Hope he stays on the right path!! Saw a couple short clips of him throwing and eye test seemed very positive.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Oh boy - as I said somewhere recently, he’s becoming icing on the cake at some point but not to be counted on…….,,thanks for the update. Bummer!
  11. JD-TWINS
    Starting pitching is a draw & w/o Varland in the mix, it’s pretty positive. I get you are commenting on just the information shown, strictly. The bettering of all aspects probably isn’t realistic. They got to 8 games over .500 with these circumstances. Correa being out for most of 3 weeks hurt the SS rating - pretty solid there as well. Kepler was out for 16-17 days and it turned out to be a blessing going from 1-20 start to super HOT! RF seems solid as well going forward. Lewis out is obviously a problem at 3B. Relievers have not had great health - they will be up & down but I still think this will be a positive in another 3-4 weeks as guys get healthy. Left Field is an issue! Larnach has stabilized the DH spot v. RH pitching……..consistency going forward?
  12. JD-TWINS
    Well, Eddie looks really ugly as he tries to lead the League in backward K’s! His K% has come down to 34 plus% from 40% a couple weeks ago. He needs to get his BA to .250 in next 4-5 weeks. His OBP would get to the very effective .350 level at that point. I’ll say it, the good news is we traded Polanco. He’s actually leading the League in strikeouts with 53. He’s hitting .192. He’s headed to the IL today with hamstring tightness. Sorry, I get the sentimental attachment, but it was clear he was a high risk guy with injury and at the start of declining production. If Topa ever pitches it’s still a positive move. Stewart - Topa coming back in June should bump up our Pen performance for 2nd qtr. Not having Varland in rotation should help those stats 2nd qtr. as well……..Gray has been great in St. Louis until last outing with 6 runs in 5 innings……Maeda is hurt and has 6.75 ERA. I think we’ll improve at 3B - LF - 2B - 1B in 2nd qtr. Royce will be back in 4 weeks - Wallner won’t be allowed to wallow for 4 weeks with no production - Eddie will be better and so will Farmer (gotta be) - Santana has leveled & Kirilloff has to have bottomed out. I think the off season moves will start to pay off as we go forward through June.
  13. JD-TWINS
    That is correct. The conspiracy theory against Alcala seems a bit silly to me. He walked guys early and worked out of it - hence Rocco’s talk about specific things to work on…….I’m sure this is & has been a point of emphasis with the whole Pen & particularly Alcala. His last outing , the multi inning use was twofold reasoning. First, the Pen was burned and nobody left to throw. Second, he needs to get outs - period. If he gets screwed on a call or somebody kicks the ball, he needs to bounce back & perform. His lack of effectiveness lead to the extended outing and large number of pitches. It was unfortunate series of events but Alcala needs to carry most of the responsibility.
  14. JD-TWINS
    I really don’t expect to see Stewart until early, mid-June. 15 day IL & then re-evaluate and then a couple week ramp up after cleared to make sure he’s good to go. Topa is icing on the cake at this point. Disappointing but that’s probably realistic. Broad thoughts on PEN: Alcala - Staumont - Jensen - Henriquez will be filling the last 2 spots as they have options. Duran - Jax - Funderburk - Sands - Okert - Thielbar - Jackson are the core for short-term. Stewart - Topa in June?? If SWR can hold up I could see him being the optional #4 Starter in October. Paddack & Varland part of a 9 man Pen in the Playoffs.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Flared up then, it’s been a recurring issue with his knee. Held up well in ‘23.
  16. JD-TWINS
    What does this mean? What player are you describing? ………what’s the contrast between Santana & Miranda in ‘22? If Miranda is considered a “good 1B option” why does he not get innings there (a week ago or prior) over a poorly hitting Santana, while he’s hitting near .300?
  17. JD-TWINS
    Jeffers - saw an approach analysis on him about a week ago on MLB TV morning show. DeRosa had his swing v. last year (very similar) as well as his swing this year v. his starkly different approach with 2 strikes. With 2 strikes he spreads out prior to the pitch in his initial stance - he picks up the front foot and almost immediately replaces it in the ground - very quiet lower body. He’s choked up about an inch & a half with two strikes as well. I pointed out last week here that his average was higher with 2 strikes and his power is essentially the same. Quick, compact swing to the ball. Working great and it seems like the most simple & intuitively logical approach one could use. I suggested he scrap his “prior to 2 strike” approach. Whole team should study and adopt some variation on his theme. Particularly Mr Kirilloff!!! Been a fan of Alex for 3 years but he doesn’t change a thing with 2 strikes and his numbers make that painfully obvious!
  18. JD-TWINS
    Completely accurate - it also takes longer to forget about a bad outing when a guy does pitch well only one inning at a time. Good outings are EXPECTED from relievers at a near 100% rate. They can’t make mistakes and recover in same outing very often. Because they only face 2-6 guys it seems they should just get guys out!! Thielbar will be better in 3 or 4 of his next 5 outings………Sands, when used a bit more judiciously, will again get outs. Jax was in a game a week ago and he loaded the bases with no outs and then got out of it with only one run……a victory of sorts. At the time most were critical. If Joe Ryan does that in the first inning he’s completely absolved. Relievers have a tough job - much of it, due to their frequency of use, is between their ears!! Gotta be confident and mentally tough!
  19. JD-TWINS
    Just an aside on runs in ‘24 …….since April 27th the Twins have scored 16 - 11 - 10 - 10 - 11 in 5 of those 15 games. They had 8 in a loss on Saturday. That’s 64 runs over 6 games. That’s skewing things a bit, with a relatively small sample size, is my assumption.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Ober has got to be Top 10 pitcher in the game since his first start. He’s 4-0 with a WHIP, including that first game, of .884. He’s got a K% of 9.4/9 innings. His ERA since then, over 7 starts, is 2.16. He’s been outstanding!
  21. JD-TWINS
    You gotta be kidding me - Miranda is a slightly better than average at 1B?? Let’s see anything backing that up. My comment about Santana is obviously instinct & ability based - historical performance based. Never thought he was a speedster……….his sprint speed has zero to do with taking command as appropriate on foul & fair balls around the infield…….making plays on throws at 1B.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Jackson - I agree, generally. His ERA was 6.00 - then after 2-3 outings it was 3.90 & now 2 poor outings later he’s DFA material. Back over 6.00. They are paying him regardless so my assumption is he’ll have some runway ……..remember Emilio?
  23. JD-TWINS
    Some guys are significantly better - i.e. Jeffers as shown by bean5032…..some guys improving in this year already, i.e. Julien at 34.5% down from 40% a couple weeks ago!! No Michael A.Taylor - No Joey Gallo ……Vazquez & Farmer will slowly get better. I think Santana will get a couple % lower over time? Correa seems much more competent at the plate in ‘24! I think it’s less individual approach (Jeffers withstanding) and more about a better constructed roster. Good slow change seems to be happening.
  24. JD-TWINS
    100% …….have said before the streak, and again Friday…….there was no switch flipped!! The coaching staff doesn’t deserve an award for the past 3 weeks success any more than they deserve blame for the previous 3 weeks of ineptitude. The “approach” has been to barrel up the ball. Hitting 101. If a guy is pounding low pitches into the ground OR swinging through high fastballs OR flailing at sliders off the plate, adjustments are discussed. Looking for better bat plane or moving in the box a bit or shortening stride are adjustments discussed if a guy is scuffling. There’s no BROAD philosophy that works across the group. Hitters are individuals. Kirilloff, it was suggested here, was “ignoring the coaching” early in April and lining the ball all over…...that’s why he was succeeding as an island. Hitting coach & probably Baldelli needed to be fired!! …….. Since then….,April 20ish, he’s declined steadily and half dozen other guys have thrived. Doesn’t really make sense that it’s a coaching thing! Players play and it’s their responsibility. It’s silly to think the “philosophy changed” 3 weeks ago!!!! Your stats illustrate the value of hitting the ball in the air (particularly if it’s a line drive) and the fruits that come with being 2 homers out of 6th place in MLB…..we have one game less played, and are currently tied at 11th. Batting Average is up 45 points since the streak started, from .195…..,with the same hitting coach!………there will be individual slumps as well as surges to come…….it’s baseball.
  25. JD-TWINS
    The biggest thing with Santana, outside the jump in power, is his defense. He’s made a couple relatively simple plays turn into errors (pick-off throw for one) but he catches everything in the dirt or one hopped to first. His range on foul balls seems endless (home to half-way to the RF wall) as well as being aggressive on anything in the air. Caught a couple line drives recently as well. My point is he’s making plays that I don’t think we can assume Miranda would make at the same % rate. He brings value with this defense!!
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