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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    What’s reasonable for a lefty with experience but slotted now as a 4th guy……. on a pretty decent staff. ……he can help Twins get to the finish line as a starter and could possibly slot into relief in October. 2 months of him to get us stronger. What’s that worth….generally? Not putting you on the spot here, just wondering what people think about this type of acquisition in prospect capital. I don’t know what may be reasonable?……..I would think Toronto just wants a reasonable piece as they aren’t going anywhere and save $3.3M. Competition for him is what drives the price up is my assumption.
  2. JD-TWINS
    I have no issues with Baldelli. Don’t understand the perpetual hindsight criticism of moves he makes. I particularly don’t get the criticism when a move is made and the player doesn’t get the job done. A good Team loses 45% of their games……essentially, regardless of the Manager …….that’s baseball. I did say in the voting he’s cost the Team 2 wins - just a general thought based on what he’s said after games. I have no specific thoughts on this/these “bad moves”. I’m sure he’s done many things that have worked out and WON games but that’s what he supposed to do……..why give him credit when he does things that work - right?
  3. JD-TWINS
    Agree that Margot isn’t turning into some fabulous run producer as of June 1. Regressing back toward his norm……per the 2800 AB’s. What I don’t get is all the angst about how many games he’s played “outside of the platoon” and how he has too many AB’s v. RH pitching? He’s a poor option v. RH pitching - everyone knows that. Rocco knows that. Does “forced into action” mean anything? Julien sucks, Castro removed from OF play and stationed at 2B - Kirilloff to IL - Wallner can’t hit in April, sent down (biggest issue) - Kepler out most of 3 weeks, IL - Larnach bad toe can’t be brought up, IL - Buxton out with knee problems, IL - Lewis out 58 games, Quad, IL and Castro at 3B many games, no OF play - etc………..often no left handed options for corner OF action or no other option in CF. Martin could have played a bit more, & in hindsight, may have. The FO & Baldelli brought Margot in, as you (not some) are well aware …….that’s been stretched! ………he pinch hits and the pitcher gets replaced with a RH - good baseball by the opponents. I don’t really care if/when he gets replaced……I trust the Team to do what they think is best……just seems he & mgmt. get a lot of static for something that became unavoidable with circumstances of other’s health.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Seems more & more likely that Lee takes over at 3B the rest of the year ……Miranda getting reps there too. I think Lewis re-habs at another position or he’s relegated to DH the rest of the season. What’s the line-up when Lewis is back August 15? 13 guys on the 26-man hitting: Wallner - Larnach - Buxton - Kepler - Margot Lee - CC - Castro - Santana - Miranda Jeffers - Vazquez Lewis………..Martin added in September. It’s possible but highly unlikely…..Farmer could have a really good month and Margot could go south and Margot could be the guy to go in mid-August. Either way, w/o an injury, Margot or Farmer has to be DFA’d when Lewis returns.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Wallner is really doing a nice job through 4 games!! Hope he can keep the buzz going in SF this weekend.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Completely agree with the Thielbar details from DJL44…….I wanted to lynch him (Thielbar) 3 weeks ago but he seems to have come around. A few different situations as well - not just cake walk innings. He’s a proud & determined guy and still seems to have the same two-pitch stuff. He made some command mistakes but seems to be nearly back to normal. Thielbar - Topa - Funderburk are all possibilities for the 9th spot through the September roster expansion. Having troubles finding exact info on September. It appears one player & one pitcher for 28 total bodies from Sept. 8 - Sept. 29. This would be a big change in the start date. Anyway, by September 20th I expect, with health, the Pen to look like this: Thielbar or Okert - Varland - Alcala - Staumont - Stewart - Paddack - Jax - Duran…..that seems as competitive as anyone in the game.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Sounds like Stewart should be back on roster by 7/31……Topa has thrown in bullpen and my assumption is (with good knee) they should be able to evaluate him and he could be (if effective stuff) back by 8/10…..,that’s another month of getting ready to go……reasonable? If Stewart looks good and Topa is progressing and checking boxes, I don’t see any moves for relief help! ……..Varland and Paddack coming by mid to late September as well. Again, a Lorenzen type may help push/pull the starting group through September.
  8. JD-TWINS
    My assumption is that when Mahle - deGrom come back they don’t have room in their 26-man for all the bodies and the guys currently on the staff are not guys with remaining options. They have $$$ or they wouldn’t have all the salaries they already carry. Therefore, trading Eovaldi isn’t an option for remainder of this year nor for next, as I’m sure that they hope he’ll opt in! Obviously, they could cut some lower Pen guys or maybe there are options with the Pen? Seems to me that Lorenzen makes most sense for Twins both prospect capital and $$ wise. They’ll have to pay 1/3 of his salary ($1.5M) and won’t need to give up anything too significant - but there may be some competition for his services. Lorenzen is essentially a polished Louie Varland. He started in Pen with Cincinnati and worked his way out over 3-4 years. He’s about a 4.00 ERA guy that’s pretty durable. He could be a Pen weapon in October and could give the Team 7 of 9 good starts over last 2 months. Texas will remain thinking they are just a 6 game win streak away from competing for their Division crown. They could still win that Division with their talent!
  9. JD-TWINS
    No options with Paddack, pretty sure that’s right & signed through ‘25. ……..SWR hasn’t thrown a bunch of innings so far at 23 (neither has Paddack) so I think he might get a break for 2-3 weeks…..so he’s available through September. Maybe Paddack has a minor “injury” and goes to IL. He could be a weapon in late September and into October from the Pen! I don’t see them doing anything in trades for pitching. Henriquez & Stewart …….maybe Topa seem to be what’s used to get through 162 games. It’s very likely that they commit by September 15 to moving Varland to a relief role. Paddack a week or so later. Lewis strengthens the line-up so much I’d have to lean to (even 85% of his health) him to be the most valuable add from the injury list.
  10. JD-TWINS
    If he has a similar ERA in 10 weeks, it may be a good option. ……..still doesn’t mean he’s going to be ROY though.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Jack Morris pitched 30-40 years ago - not really sure what you’re rambling about with reference to him? A few guys often discussed as interesting potential acquisitions here at TD: Sonny Gray career WHIP 1.195 Seth Lugo career WHIP 1.15 Jack Flaherty career WHIP 1.185 Jesus Luzardo career WHIP 1.252 Nathan Eovaldi career WHIP 1.288
  12. JD-TWINS
    $6M this year for the balance of the season. Absence of Farmer - Kepler - Margot - Santana adds up to $24M less spending in ‘25. They’ll have some arbitration increases but it’s worth considering. Berrios stats are pretty good other than a propensity to give up HR’s. His strikeouts are at a career low but his WHIP is still very good at 1.13. 115 innings this far leads one to believe he’ll get to 200 innings this year. 3.76 ERA and averages over 6 innings per start - could be a nice addition.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Good stuff! Throwing strikes and making guys swing. - few walks - 5th lowest WHIP is great!! Teams are going to get hits and score, but giving up few cheap runs and have the ability to pitch out of trouble. Strikeouts are Waay down on offense and lots of XBH…..nice combination!!
  14. JD-TWINS
    MANY pundits had him in their Top 5 for A.L. Cy Young going into the season. He was Top 3 in the game in K’s in ‘23. He’s on pace to get to 200 K’s again in ‘24 with 190 innings again as well. His ERA is inflated due to a handful of bad outings, of the 18 starts he’s had. His SO rate & walk rate are very good - his WHIP is 1.19 so I think his Earned Run issues are fixable. He’s given up too much contact by getting behind and not being locked in with his change-up. He gave up 1 run in 2 starts, over 12 1/3 innings for a .71 ERA in PLAYOFFS in ‘23.
  15. JD-TWINS
    I don’t think there’s any doubt Paddack is in the Pen in October. I know this is boring & I’m in the minority, but I don’t see any changes as being a necessary move to be successful. Varland to the Pen in September and Paddack with 10 days left in September gets the last 2 guys displaced. That’s all that will be needed. I’m assuming Stewart is healthy and contributing in September as well……add those 3 to Staumont - Alcala - (a lefty) - Jax - Duran. My possible add - would be a trade with the Blue Jays for Berrios. They need spending freedom to sign Guerrero & Bichette, possibly? Berrios slots as our #2 guy for next 3-4 years. Festa & 2 other guys (Julien) and maybe a young prospect? He’s $20M/yr average for 4 years and he’s 30…….that’s what decent pitchers cost…….he’s at $18.7M for next 2 years and then goes up for last 2 years.
  16. JD-TWINS
    He hit .080 over 3 weeks against nearly all RH pitchers to start the year……..pretty sure Popkins/Baldelli and anyone else with a pulse knows his numbers in the minors v. LH pitching - right? Still, he gets platooned for in the Show. Is Rocco trying to throw games with his vegas connections? Seriously. AA & AAA are great but many guys excel in the minors and don’t play much in MLB. There are tangible reasons in Management’s opinion that he shouldn’t be hitting against LH pitching, at this point in his career…..doubt they want to fill in America on what those weaknesses may be as it is a competitive world. There’s a chance there isn’t all that much difference between Wallner & Margot v. LH pitching but the guys that are getting paid to discern the differences between players don’t like Wallner’s odds in the short teerm.
  17. JD-TWINS
    ……ROCKS….
  18. JD-TWINS
    Vazquez will be though - put your ricks in the pillow case.😉
  19. JD-TWINS
    “No chance” is just a generality and not meant to be realistic - no more than Margot having no chance v. RH pitching. Chances are greatly diminished - how’s that? Wallner has the better upside than Margot if they can only carry one guy, absolutely no doubt!!!……,my point is they don’t need to carry one guy. I can’t defend (though I really like him as a guy) Farmer. He’s had some tough luck, but doesn’t everyone, on well hit balls. No HR’s is a telling stat!!!! MANY people look at Margot’s “year” and use the totality to justify making a move now or “soon”. He, just like Wallner in St. Paul, has improved from mid-May forward……a bunch. The disparity on Margot’s AB’s, RH pitching v. LH pitching, is multi faceted…………goes back to him coming in to Pinch hit & nearly inevitably the pitcher then gets changed……mostly it’s been necessity due to ill health from teammates and him picking up the innings. Larnach’s toe - Kepler’s shin - Wallner’s ineptitude - Kirilloff’s inability to be effective - Buxton’s knee - Julien going down and taking Castro away from OF……these issues added together forced Margot into the line-up quite often……last, if he enters the game in the middle, due to the 75% RH pitchers, he’s going to face RH pitching without that being the intent from the Manager later in the game. I guess a last thought is, one of the reasons (major reason) Wallner has less playing time in the Showin ‘24 and Margot got many of his potential AB’s in April/May/June is because Wallner was brutal & then somewhat inconsistent, with too many K’s, on his AAA assignment. It’s on him ultimately. He’s back!!!
  20. JD-TWINS
    A ROSTER is a collection of guys to help get wins. Can’t go into 25% of the situations with no chance at the plate. Who else should be on the Roster? ……….What’s the problem? Repeatedly stating 75% of AB’s come from LH batters is a point made. Still gotta have a solution for the other 25% of the time. Who is more valuable between Margot & Wallner? This seems to be the premise or question. As you stated, Wallner looks like Barry Bonds over his first 6 AB’s/PA’s. We don’t know yet. I’d bet a whole bunch on the hunch that Wallner is the better player by a big margin!! However, there’s room on the Roster for numerous solutions. Wallner - Larnach - Kepler (3 LH guys that play OF & can DH v. RH pitching)………Buxton - Margot - Castro provide answers v. LH foes. Lee - Santana - Castro provide multiple solutions at varying levels of success as switch hitters. Farmer is the current additional bat v. LH pitching - Lewis to follow & probably supplant at some point. Miranda - Correa - Buxton seem to be the guys that can hit v. pitching from either side with some reliability. The catchers are in their defensive niche trying to contribute occasionally on offense. These are the 13 guys healthy enough to play and they are suited to platoon as needed. Again, I don’t see a problem. As frustrating as it may sound, the organization held on to Gallo last year through September. I think there’s a good chance of that being the path for Farmer. Hallo pulled a leg muscle and went on the IL for a piece of August which helped Team hang in to him…..maybe Farmer gets an oblique issue in a few weeks? Gallo ended up getting playing time in September because of injuries……the roster expands and they may want Farmer around for that? With Lewis hurt 70% of the time - not being funny - the organization wants to mitigate risk and Farmer may turn out to be part of that strategy? Cannot, without some unforeseen downturn, option Lee!!!! I don’t see moving Wallner again either after the 6 PA’s! Tough decisions coming.
  21. JD-TWINS
    The reality is they are both on the 26-man as was intended at the end of March. Not sure what the debate is about? One guy hits LH very well & is subpar v. RH pitching. The other hits RH pitching and is subpar v. LH pitching. 75% or so of pitchers are RH. All known stuff going into the season as well - thus the reasoning to carry both on the roster.
  22. JD-TWINS
    So, out of Spring Training they were both supposed to be on the Club. They were both terrible and Wallner had options. In June through July 3, Margot had a .899 OPS - real stuff not conjecture. Looking forward to the best of both going forward. Wallner looks locked in and hope he can stay somewhat consistent.
  23. JD-TWINS
    I’d feel better with the opportunity the Team would have with Berrios from age 30-33 at an average of $20M than with Gray from age 33-36 at an average of $25M. I’m sure many will disagree - OK.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Why not bring Berrios back? He’s affordable, IMO, through ‘28. He can opt out after ‘26, so at least 2 more years of control. $18.7M per year…….he goes up in ‘27 & ‘28 but everyone will cost more then…..could potentially move him after ‘25 if others need $$ or develop from the system? He has matured and you know what you’re going to get for the most part, going forward. Again, IMO, he can be a mirror image of a good Pablo Lopez when on his game. He can be up & down somewhat as well but most pitchers are - right? He’s a potential playoff weapon. Julien & Festa & Headrick……somebody from A or AA as well?
  25. JD-TWINS
    I realize that Okert didn’t help the cause much on Monday. Jeffers throw to 2B was a bit of a shocker as well in the quest to try and get a win. However, I tried to put this behind me and just can’t, Griffin Jax is too good to give up runs like that last night! He walks a guy to start the inning - cannot do that with a lead, ever & against this line-up it makes no sense. Stuff happens. Anyway, he wild pitches a guy to 3B, again stuff happens. But when facing Lopez he didn’t throw a fastball, that I could recognize, the entire AB. All he has to do is throw 95 plus in the zone and there’s an outstanding chance the inning is over. He does not - count moves to 3-2 and the guy hits a change-up off the handle that lands in the dirt over the 3B head. Next guy he blows away with 97 in the zone repeatedly. Gotta call a better game & gotta make pitches that make sense when capable of making them. Trying to be cute with off speed to a banjo hitter and then showing off your fastball v. the next guy, after a run scores, makes zero sense. Come on!!! Need the 8th inning HOLD v. the White Sox!
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