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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Offense could use a couple breaks (4 balls caught at the wall in past couple games) - run scoring has been listless over past half dozen games - prior they lit it up. Looking at OPS+ earlier………if Farmer & Margot go away at some point in August……..Team has 12 of 13 guys at 99 OPS+ or better now …..League average is 100 OPS+ ……Twins have 7 guys at 125 or above and 5 at 148 or above. (realize Lee - Wallner - Lewis are small samples and skewed a bit) Offense should come around soon enough!
  2. JD-TWINS
    A guy brought up the question about Margot being in the lead-off spot last night - citing his stats as a lead-off hitter is somehow skewed? That’s like saying a pitcher who gives up 2 or less runs over his past 5 games but has a 4.00 ERA after 14 games isn't pitching better now because his overall ERA is 4.00. (Ober like) Recent performance matters whether you think so or not! Vazquez sucks generally - certainly for the year! However, he’s had an OPS of .810 over last 18 games……got him a shot at DH last night. Buxton was mired in mediocrity through most of the first 2 plus months of the season……he’s been on fire for 20 games…….recent events matter. The stat that I throw around relative to Margot is .899 OPS from beginning of June through a week ago. If a guy hits .100 for a month, he can’t get back to .250 in a blink of an eye. I’m not in love with Margot in any way but fair is fair…….he was terrible……he became proficient…..,,we’ll see how long he can contribute and hang on from here.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Weird Kepler didn’t start after a day off. I guess, giving Wallner a chance v. Lefty that most here clamor for……he’s not Max in the OF! Do not disagree with Jeffers - his skills behind the plate seem to be regressing……or just getting worse….,,base skills seem to be lacking. Miranda got scratched so, with an .810 OPS over the past 18 games, Vazquez DHed. Last 33 games for Camargo he’s hit .213 in St. Paul.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Miranda was scratched which pushed Vazquez into duty……didn’t hear but Miranda must have been sick? He was on the bench - in a heavy hoodie. Margot quite often leads-off v. LH pitching over past 2 months - pretty good rate of success over that period.
  5. JD-TWINS
    You have obviously looked into the numbers further than I’m willing to this morning, but I must pose a question. If Farmer-Margot-Thielbar-Kepler-Santana are all gone (assuming 2024 payroll is at $124M?) it seems pre-arb total (am unaware, Lopez may get a few million raise?) would be closer to $93M - maybe I’m off somewhere? Anyway, I get your point. Does everyone here think the Pohlad’s will force the 2021 equivalent payroll total again in 2025? I’m removed from the Twin Cities buzz daily on what the conversation may be regarding excuses/rationalizations for not spending. Seems $135-$140 would be more commensurate with their market size, etc for 2025……I get what I or anybody thinks or hopes for doesn’t matter a bit. Is the strategy forward hunting guys like Lugo - Flaherty - etc. on the back end of their perceived value for $12M per year and trade LOPEZ to free up $10M? I don’t see how a FO puts a club together without potentially moving a Correa (type of salary) with a $125M payroll. I do not want to even suggest moving on from Correa but objectively, with a tight budget, it seems rolling the dice with an infield corp of Lewis-Lee-Martin-Julien-Castro-Miranda-Severino may need to be considered. Gotta have pitching and can’t be losing arms in arbitration years due to budget. If the real goal is to WIN it all, and to capitalize on the Correa & Buxton investments, the Team can’t go 70% of the way on the pitching staff (or arbitration players) spending. The best answer is to get back to near the 2023 budget and move forward - obviously. All that said, Montgomery - Snell - Maeda and probably a handful of other TD “must sign” candidates from the last offseason are not having years (their results) anyone would want at nearly any price………reinforces the risk with spending big on arms…….I was begging for a trade to get Devin Williams to make the PEN bulletproof and he hasn’t thrown an inning ….,risk, always the rationalization for not spending.
  6. JD-TWINS
    I realize he’s been hurt way too much ……. “prospects” or potential stars are always subjective, I think that all around baseball he’s taken the subjectivity away. His only (it is serious) fault is a lack of staying healthy, which, I think a number of Teams would be willing to roll the dice on while giving a significant return. Nobody would try to trade him though if health wasn’t the issue they were trying to escape. I keep him and try to figure out how to keep him in the line-up. It’s not clear or they’d have done it already…….he’s something else when on the field. Per your comment, it will take serious compensation from the Twins for a decent arm! A package of Severino - Keaschall - Kirilloff could net a solid return, I would think? Obviously, it’s impossible to know what other clubs are interested in so it’s pretty difficult to identify trade package……always guesswork. Severino’s a guy that seems MLB ready with bat - Keaschall rates as a high end prospect - Kirilloff is a guy that has shown flashes of better than average MLB hitter…..2023 stats illustrate that. Am I in the area with trade capital?
  7. JD-TWINS
    Me too - as of Saturday morning they are 6-10 over last sixteen. Hopefully they will continue to level out for a bit.
  8. JD-TWINS
    RYAN really got a bad break in the first with Wallner turning a single into a triple, sets a bad tone …….but after the 1st he was his own worst enemy. For a “strike thrower” he managed to continually start guys 2-0. He was hunting the corners and continually 3” off the plate. Last, he didn’t seem to be able or willing to elevate his fastball…….Jeffers set-up high along the top of the zone at least a handful of times with Ryan throwing pitches belt high or just below…..the pitch Soler lined to left was the prototype for “middle-middle”. I guess he just lacked command last night? Homecoming have him too amped?
  9. JD-TWINS
    I do not follow the prospects well enough to know where he ranks (gotta be toward top 10 with a bullet) - the obvious numbers that stand out are the capability to hit .300 plus at all 3 stops so far as well as his ability to work for base on balls.
  10. JD-TWINS
    I get the frustration with Vazquez in the line-up with Miranda scratched……Camargo has hit .213 in St Paul since he was up with the Twins the first time though……I don’t understand the call-up choice with the All-Star break looming and the Catchers able to both rest a few days?
  11. JD-TWINS
    I know many here think Vazquez should have made the All-star game…….,JK …,..,am a little surprised that the corresponding move to Farmer going to the IL is Camargo though. I DO know some here have the opinion that Camargo should be our #2 Catcher by jettisoning Vazquez somehow, somewhere. I’m not a huge fan of the idea, less game calling experience by more than a decade and not really any better offense than Vazquez. Camargo has hit .213 in St Paul since his brief stint with the Twins. I’m pretty sure Vazquez could do that or probably a bit better. Am in no hurry to replace Vazquez with Camargo. Curious why he’s been brought in for the Giants Series????? Are one of Jeffers or Vazquez nicked up a bit? With the All-star break coming Monday - it doesn’t add up with a fatigue issue……after having Thursday off - right?
  12. JD-TWINS
    Don’t doubt the progress but are there any recent examples or numbers that illustrate Julien is coming around? I’d like his potential promotion be another “good problem”! Please comment.
  13. JD-TWINS
    I’d do that too……….just don’t see Max being worth much to anyone at this point in the season. He’s not going to energize a line-up and Teams that aren’t trying to push for a title aren’t trading prospects for him if he’s going to be a free agent. I guess he may fill a hole in some contenders OF? …… can’t see any trades of that type in the A.L. so the field of possibilities are pretty limited with him.
  14. JD-TWINS
    There’s no perfect staff……a bunch of other Teams would take Okert based on his performance over the year or Thielbar based on his last 6 outings and his past experience. Chafin or maybe Chapman are lefties that could potentially be acquired but you may need a Valium to be able to watch either of them pitch in October as well. I don’t see any Pen moves. Lorenzen from Texas may help them free up a 40-man spot for when Mahle & deGrom return…….he could be a hybrid to help with starting innings into mid-September and then shift him to Pen? Affordable.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Without some injuries through July, I don’t see any trades happening for a reliever at any level of competence. Topa - Sands - Funderburk - Thielbar are all possibilities for the last spot in October. Alcala - Staumont - Okert/Thielbar - Paddack - Varland - Stewart - Jax - Duran seems really good to me! Thielbar was written off by me 3-4 weeks ago. He got 8 days off in mid-June & since June 20th he’s appeared 6 times. He’s thrown 5 1/3 innings with 2 walks (in one outing) & 5 K’s……..zero earned runs while giving up just 1 hit over those 6 appearances. He sure seems confident & serious about regaining his status on this club!
  16. JD-TWINS
    Some games he played more than one spot this year….not just starts at those positions. Simien is starting and there are only 2 guys at 2B and plenty of other guys for other positions so I don’t see him playing multiple positions in the All-star game. Could be cool to see Correa & Castro up the middle for A.L. late in the game!
  17. JD-TWINS
    I don’t know Eflin? Eovaldi is playoff tested & playoff successful ……a 3.10 ERA is outstanding. Bad news is Texas won’t sell, arguably, their best pitcher and a guy that was key to their success in post season just last year. They get two other pitchers back in next 3-4 weeks …..,they have a pedigree (underperforming) of good offense! The Mariners scored 11 last night & may not score 2 more runs the rest of the weekend……meaning, they can be caught! Texas has money and are going to be confident well through the deadline, IMO. Lorenzen - maybe? Not better than Ober but serviceable to get SWR some rest and then as a potential bullpen guy through October…..very reasonable insurance piece.
  18. JD-TWINS
    So, if you can get 138 games from Lewis and he’s in the MVP conversation, is there any question that there’s more value with him v. a Skubal in Cy Young consideration having a 3.10 ERA over 32 starts? Over recent history of last couple decades, what’s more valuable year to year going forward…….maybe not valuable, more repeatable of similar performance going forward? I’d take the bat every time…….. potentially involved in affecting 115 more games per season. So the bat maybe only has 60 impact games relative to outcome. The pitcher may have a positive affect 25 of 32 starts. To me, seems the scale tips to the bat. I guess if this is considered outside of fantasy baseball realm, would the Twins trade Lewis? To me, there’s zero chance of that happening unless he’s still hurt repeatedly in a couple years….,,way too talented to walk away from.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Can’t imagine a scenario where Texas lets Eovaldi go. Seattle’s offense is horrendous and Texas could get hot and win 10 of 13 and catch Seattle over a 2 week stretch. Houston made up 7 games in 12 days a couple weeks ago. Texas has too many $$ invested to back off their current #1 starter. Flaherty & Fedde both being in our Division seems to be an obstacle to me. Flaherty had 9 straight solid starts until June 27 when he gave up 5 runs……..hasn’t pitched since, through yesterday. Must have some injury? Fedde would apparently be ecstatic to get out of Chicago. He’s affordable through next year. Kikuchi pitched well early and then struggled in 5 of 7 games from 5/26 forward. First 2 starts of July have been good though! He’s interesting!
  20. JD-TWINS
    Somebody’s gotta play. There are no perfect teams. I mention it a lot (his improved OPS) because it’s real (not some opinion) and not just some complaint about how the FO should do better. I could care less if they cut Margot at midnight but if they do there better be somebody that’s better ready to go. The bad news is they don’t have a crystal ball for who that might be.
  21. JD-TWINS
    2 things: 1) depth comes from the 40-man roster (that’s what I was eluding to with the expansion to 45) 2) Margot’s role entering the season was RH bat to help in a predominantly LH spot in LF or RF, as needed. He has .899 OPS from June 1 to July 3. I get your criticism of FO in general but you offer no solutions - are there (were there) a bunch of multi faceted hitters out there to bring in on a budget in the offseason?? Who might they be, these players with no faults?
  22. JD-TWINS
    You going to expand the Roster to 45?? There’s only so many options that are real - so many players available. What’s your solution, not your reposting of a paragraph I wrote - 2 different times? If 5 guys get hurt in the first month, a Team is probably going to be forced into playing someone with lesser ability. Seems to be common sense, and as you mention, this type of thing happens every year. My recollection of history this year was put there for the guys that don’t recall the actual circumstances and think that Baldelli just has some love affair with Margot.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Offense is & has been rolling since late April - enough to pull the yearly totals up into very respectable level! 28 straight games with a HR is a nice roll. Lewis - Lee - Wallner all seem to be probable contributors in the last 70 games ……,,much bigger than in the first half. A not very popular move I’d like to see to help enable ALL good bats into the line-up would be Lewis to LF - can play every day and eliminate the Margot spot on the roster. Maybe worth a shot …..seems better than shifting to 2B in August? Lee is at 3B!! MLB averages, BA is .242 & OPS is .702 …….,2024 Twins: Larnach .238 & .723 Santana .242 & .737 Jeffers .239 & .798 Castro .268 & .784 Buxton .281 & .827 Martin .265 & .702 Kepler .253 & .704 Margot .231 & .627 Vazquez and Farmer are bad as we know Wallner .222 & .911 (BA .080 5 games ago) Lewis .292 & 1.039 Lee .364 & .947 Correa .310 & .905 Miranda .325 & .888 Farmer & possibly Margot are gone with Lewis & Martin becoming available in early/mid August. Don’t see any spots where additions are needed - nor do I see issues with the length of the line-up as some elude to above.
  24. JD-TWINS
    So the first 93 have gone about as well as could be expected. 11-5 in SWR’s starts 11-6 in Paddack’s starts 11-8 in Lopez’ starts 9-9 in Ober’s starts 10-8 in Ryan’s starts Top 3 guys are starting against tougher competition & Team is 30-25 in their games…not bad! The Maeda/Gray replacements have a Team record of 22–11 in their starts…..better than excellent! Festa/Varland have 7 combined starts and Team has won only 2 of those 7 games ….., ouch! Stewart - Topa seem to both be coming over next 2-4 weeks. Thielbar has had 6 straight decent outings. All I see are the comments about how the Team should assemble a perfect roster ….”need a lefty” …..”need a starter or else” …………..”need a starter and 2 relievers”…. I get this is a discussion forum but it’s not Fantasy Baseball. Only need 4 starters in Playoffs…..with health, SWR is at least an Opener as the 4th starter. Dodgers - Orioles - Red Sox - Guardians - Mets - Milwaukee - etc. etc. “need starting pitching & a little bullpen help for the stretch”……..good luck acquiring the Twin’s needs v. these other organizations. Playoff Pen: Thielbar or Okert - Alcala - Paddack - Varland - Staumont - Stewart - Jax - Duran ……how much better can a Pen get??? Are these guys flawless ….. nobody is, but I sure like this group! As a group, they have to have the best collective “stuff” in the game come October 1st.
  25. JD-TWINS
    I thought he looked a little tender after scoring yesterday, on the replay. 3 more games and a bit of rest…….I doubt rest makes the problem go away but maybe hurts less for a while? An absolute doubles machine! 31 XBH (out of 68 total) at this point in 70 games. He’s hitting .281!!! If he could somehow stay at .255 or better over the balance and play another 60 games…….would be huge.
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