JD-TWINS

I know this probably doesn’t need to be said but Falvey’s job is to build the best club he thinks he can within the budget constraints placed upon him - he has at least a broad plan…….it’s flexible based on what happens, weekly/daily - it’s not his job to make quick moves so the fans feel better. Going into Spring Training there will be 25 teams that aren’t completely comfortable with how they are constructed - everyone isn’t done making moves nor satisfied with their roster by Christmas………Falvey has to be creative and look for leverage not only to be able to shed payroll to gain flexibility but to get back the right guys that he thinks will help!! Get ready to be patient.

Sounds like a reasonable last resort type of move in a month.

There are no $$$ to spend. Right? How is a GM going to sign guys that are getting whisked away with no ability to spend? I agree, after trades are made - there could be some $$ available but being aggressive to trade guys that everyone knows you need to trade quickly to free up $$ isn’t a very good bargaining position. IMO, they need to be patient and figure out who has needs and how they can help fill Twin’s needs. Tough to do, with any good clarity & bargaining power, in December. Trading guys later in the offseason to free $$ that can be spent as part of facilitating a trade (being able to pay a guy coming over) at the deadline is a strategy. It’s not popular but maybe effective?

Trade Vazquez or Jeffers to a team they fit and that can afford them….. a contender looking for a complimentary Catcher. Consider trading Duran - Castro - Paddack- Matthews - Henriquez - Julien. Goals: Trade for a young Catcher that’s nearly ready not a hopeful prospect. Trade for an offensive first baseman. i.e. Duran - Paddack - Matthews to Red Sox for Tristan Casas. We get an offensive guy at 1B that’s inexpensive short term. Boston gets a REAL closer to replace Jansen. They signed Chapman, but he’s no longer an anchor for their, or any PEN. They get an upside arm that’s tasted MLB and they get an affordable flex arm. Twins shed around $12M. Boston isn’t doing this unless they sign a FA offensive aid. They have high hopes for their top end prospects and they want pitching. ALL 3 of these arms could help them through parts of ‘25! Focus on Vazquez to a contender in need of a veteran and pay $4M of his salary - add a prospect arm like Culpepper - Henriquez - Castro (valuable guy for a contender!) ……..get a youth Catcher that’s inexpensive short term & will be ready in ‘26. Sign Curt Cassalli for this year at $2.25M. Team gets Catcher compliment to Jeffers going forward. Team sheds another $10.25M after paying for Vazquez and Cassalli. To me, any team still needing pitching (competitive team) will be open to Paddack as an option to help get them 100-115 innings through the year. Essentially, a Nick Martinez type of guy that can float between spot starter and long reliever. Paddack is cheap for his value on any team not extremely financially constrained. 2-3 of these guys would need to be combined to bring back any single player of interest. There’s no good Vazquez trade nor Paddack trade as individuals. With the Team for sale, spending isn’t real. With Team for sale, trading big contracts isn't real. Having a few $$ to spend on an upgrade via trade at the deadline is a strategy…..risky, but a strategy.

There are no $$$ to spend. Right? How is a GM going to sign guys that are getting whisked away with no ability to spend? I agree, after trades are made - there could be some $$ available but being aggressive to trade guys that everyone knows you need to trade quickly to free up $$ isn’t a very good bargaining position. IMO, they need to be patient and figure out who has needs and how they can help fill Twin’s needs. Tough to do, with any good clarity & bargaining power, in December.

A possible strategy but Miranda is a reverse split guy who hits RH pitching much better - and Julien can’t just blend into 1B as he hasn’t mastered his normal position over the course of last 6-8 years.

Why play for 40% less per year? It’s not a longevity challenge. You don’t think that if it were important for him he wouldn’t have countered at $15M for 5 years? He has/his agent have a definite say in “what he’s offered”…..it’s a negotiation. What would Carlos Santana be worth if it were currently the 2028 market? He’s worth $7-$8M now per reports here. He’s 39. Walker has won 3 consecutive Gold Gloves to Santana’s one. Walker is better offensively……. with health, it makes no sense for him…….the net is he’d be playing the last 2 years for $5M/year if he contrasted it to his 3yr @ $60M. I don’t understand the logic that a team will guarantee money now through age 39 but at age 37 there will be zero interest?

DH - OK…….occasional (25%) starts at 2B - OK. Personally, I hope he rebounds with the bat but nothing in ‘24 was positive for him after April - that’s a long drought. I do not expect an offensive recovery but it sure would be welcomed……..7th HR on April 27th - one more the balance of the year - I don’t think that’s attributed to bad luck. Lead League in K’s looking and played maybe 50% of the season - again, not bad luck. Also, personally, I think the assumption that he’ll be competent at 1B is laughable (I don’t hate the guy but his intuitive abilities with a glove just are not apparent)……IMO, he’ll need 3 months in St. Paul, at a minimum, to even think about playing 1B in the show.

Can’t imagine why anyone thinks Eddie Julien is going to be fixed by moving him to 1B? Can’t imagine why/how the organization should talk themselves into this being a sound approach for the Club! If there’s one guy that seems to be an absolute head case and visually (with his demeanor) makes him hard to root for, it’s Eddie. I’ll reiterate from above, he lead baseball in backward K’s and the closest guy to him had more than 200 more AB’s. To my knowledge, he’s only played a handful of innings at 1B in the TWIN’s organization. Becoming competent at a new position and competent at the plate seems like way too much for him, or most struggling players, to navigate through with success in one Spring Training.

If his stuff is good it’s a lack of being able to locate (command) and or his mental capabilities. To me he is a very good 4th/5th guy in the PEN. I think he’ll be good again in ‘25. Nobody’s perfect so he’ll hit a couple bumps. Tired of hearing the whining here about multiple innings - misuse- that was over at least 2 months prior to the Texas Masacre. He had been having great, extended success as a bridge guy in the 7th inning. He didn’t get people out in a couple outings stacked closely together in August. He needed a re-set to gather his command approach or his mental state…..maybe both. Can’t give the guy a needed break in August and then complain that he’s being wasted at AAA. Team was trying to do the right thing for the player and the organization…….neither have anything to do with not being able to score runs the last 6 weeks of the season!!

I’ve seen this 5 year $70M comment a couple places here……..why would Walker play 2 more years for $14M/yr…….seems obvious you play 3 years for $20M and then try to get another year or two somewhere (at an even more inflated market in ‘28) for $15M? I realize you are just spitballing. Try something to be involved seems to be the theme. Agree. I get the point of freeing up payroll but it’s about improving the Club not just getting a shiny new toy or being involved in FA with all the other big boys. The trade of Lopez, to me, would be about the return of an impact bat and/or filling the void at C or 1B. If they could get a Tristan Casas at 1B from Boston and a catching prospect that isn’t “a stretch” it may be worthwhile? Take the $22M from Lopez - trade Vazquez (eat $4M) & gain $6M - trade Paddack & gain $7.5M = $35.5M gained - $10M to meet budget……$25.5M to spend. Bring in Curt Cassalli for $2.5M and place hold until prospect is ready in ‘26. Take the other $23M and improve the OF…..fringe FA starter? Ride with Ryan - Ober - Festa -SWR - maybe Martin Perez or Andrew Heaney ……. Morris - Matthews …….. Culpepper, etc. Personally, I keep Lopez! Do the Boston trade for Duran - Matthews - Paddack - Vazquez. Sox get youth pitcher - veteran pitcher - top 5-10 Closer in the game - veteran Catcher for $6M……seems to make sense for Boston if they sign some FA offensive help as well. Their OF star, Duran, is not getting traded!

Arraez for Lopez …… Cruz for Ryan …… mistakes as well, bad luck, sure! Same all over baseball. The FO’s that look better in the media have $$ to spend on FA’s each year to mask any trade deficiencies…….TWIN’s FO doesn’t have that luxury/flexibility. They have drafted fairly well - seem to be developing pitching fairly well. Easy to just bitch when players don’t perform to their levels of expectations…….”the terrible FO …… Baldelli is a baffoon….” Players gotta play Lee - Lewis - Jeffers - Kepler - Julien ………none helped after the All-Star break……Ryan got hurt. I don’t see any of that being a Front Office failure.

A “breakout” for Joe would be to pitch 175 - 185 innings and last all 6 months of the season on the same level of performance, IMO. Ober seems to be the more logical guy to extend. More of a 3 pitch mix and not trying to throw too hard - better potential long-term health. They are both effective and both worth considering. Joe’s more recent physical issues make me anxious! Can’t imagine any extensions to anyone under current ownership though.

Team has signed an in-house guy in Buxton. They signed Correa… granted, a big deal. Only two big signings ……other than Josh Donaldson that I can remember under Falvey………do we really think Falvey, with the Twin’s financial history, is out “courting FA’s”?? “Throwing big money at them”???? Keeping guys is commendable and I would think would help build a solid culture. Bottom line is the Team is For Sale and this conjecture of extending guys is a non-starter at this point.

Can’t trade for prospects - not as a central theme to the offseason! IMO, Castro among another 10 rostered guys could be seriously considered in trades. The general approach of grouping 2-4 of these guys together to bring back one viable player for the Twins per trade is the approach that will be needed.

You are certainly correct! How are 20 HR’s with 20 steals over 2 seasons ……….713 PA’s …….any better than what one would expect from Martin at a minimum salary level? Martin may hit 14 HR’s and steal 32 bases…….his defense can only get better in LF ……….just don’t see any upside in signing Laureano. France is not any sort of catalyst nor a guy to rely upon in the line-up…….nearly zero upside and not better than Miranda, as an example.

Festa is IN the rotation April 1st. Whether he’s 4th or 5th guy isn’t important to me, it may be important to SWR? His issue isn’t stuff or his numbers first time through wouldn’t be as good as they are. Approach is the problem and to me, that’s a coaching staff/Catcher issue. Festa could use a 4th pitch that was sub 91MPH for sure. Maybe an alternate grip on his change-up? Maybe a curveball once an inning? The length will come with success. If a guy can’t get through the 4th inning without throwing 32 pitches in the inning, he probably won’t get past 5 1/3 total. With an approach change for second time through, he may average 16-18 pitches per inning…………that’s 75 pitches through 5 innings ………he could get through 6 innings 50% of the time! I don’t think that either SWR nor Festa can be counted on (expected to) for more than 160 innings. Essentially, Ober level of use in ‘23.

Agreed. Boras as an agent and a player that’s used to being slapped on the back and the former #1 overall pick……..an extension is not in their forefront! The whole idea is to provide some upside security to lock a guy up before he’s too expensive. It’s a two way street. If he excels, as you point out, he’s a $200M plus guy to extend. 7 years for $105M, or a bit more, seems to be in the range of suitable risk for both sides, to me. Annual $$ would be loaded much more toward the last 4 years. Lewis has major upside & he has a major injury history. Gotta meet in the middle to get a deal done. The whole premise is based on history to date - can’t wait a season for him to “prove it” since Boras will be in his ear Big Time on what he’d get in another 3 yrs. All of this does seem moot since the Team is for sale and the checkbook is locked away right now!!

The Pope could make an offer or show interest in the Twins and he’d get picked apart for a dozen reasons. There’s no such thing as a perfect scenario for the buying group…they’re too frugal ……they’re idiots ……they’ll hire idiots ……they will move club…… etc., etc. Hope for the best but get used to having a different point of view from ownership on something. Can’t imagine an aggressive sort, Ishbia, being content (ever) to build a Team in a location/city so he can move it 15 years from now - doesn’t seem very realistic. I’m pretty confident that any new owner group will employ baseball people to run the Team…..good or bad?

NOBODY in baseball throws 7-9 innings as guys did in the past. Having that as an expectation isn’t realistic. 6 1/3 - OK, I’ll buy that as the bar. ……Max Fried just signed a huge contract & he averaged 6 innings per outing in ‘24. Corbin Burnes “is a horse” & he averaged 6.06 innings per outing in ‘24. Pablo Lopez averaged 5.78 innings. Blake Snell 5.2 innings in ‘24 & I think he threw a complete game in there.

I agree with the GO & do it message! Santana has signed about 5 different 1 year deals in a row - not sure where the 3 year deal he’s looking for came from at age 39 - seems far fetched. Completely agree one of the two Catchers should be exchanged for a longer term option - Vazquez preferably. I agree that Castro, if still rostered, can be a good bridge to Keaschall or Lee once they are ready. I do understand that there is a sentimental view of Dobnack but I cannot disagree more that he’s going to ”plug a hole” in anyone’s organization. A GM would have to have some sort of history eraser to make that happen. Correa at SS can help the up the middle defense - displacing Julien can help the up the middle defense. Not signing, or ignoring the potential value of a Gold Glove probably won’t help the defense.

Tradable guys (I know - everybody or anybody) that can help bring back some 1B solution or a good young Catcher: Paddack - Vazquez (& 2 differing levels of prospects so to not have to spend more on Vazquez) - Duran - Matthews - Julien - Varland - Jeffers - Castro - Martin Seems Duran, along with another 1 or probably 2 other guys here should be able to bring back a real everyday player. W/o knowing the targeted player for Twins & the trade partner it just wild speculation on the details of who. I like Festa & have no hesitation with him as the 4 or 5 starter. He’s not perfect but he’ll continue to improve. Paddack (better use of his innings and lack of durability) & Varland could both be in the PEN …..Topa - Sands - Alcala - Henriquez - Stewart - Jax - Duran - Blewett - Tonkin - Moran - Funderburk - Headrick - Castellano ………..Raya - Canterino - Prielipp are all later summer long shots for PEN help…….that’s 18 guys to get 10 or 11 that will perform …..this is why I like moving Jax to closer role and trade Duran with a couple other pieces to get a position player of real value!

My point is that I think they should aim high as well, but they can’t “wish think” that they are going to trade for a solution. They can’t afford any higher $$ in free agency - no more than a “Santana level”. My view is that he should be in ‘25 what they had planned for a 38 year old in ‘24. Miranda starts v. RH pitching at 1B with good reverse splits (or Keaschall or Lewis plays there…..thus they don’t sign Carlos) & Santana starts v. LH pitching. He plays defense late in nearly every game & starts only the 25% v. lefties. He’s the RH pinch hitter used later in games v. lefties. He’s ideal for this duty & IF somebody that’s supposed to play more than him gets hurt, Team has a plausible option. Not, cross fingers and plug in Eddie Julien at 1B - to me that’s nuts/reckless/not very bright.

I’d like to see Keaschall or Lewis at 1B & the other at 2B………but, if they can’t make that happen, they cannot “hope” Miranda doesn’t get hurt nor Julien is going to hit again & pick-up 1B in the Spring………way more risk with the latter two options.

He LEAD the team in HR & RBI …. won Gold Glove. Am nearly positive you wanted him gone last May - then June - then August - “play the young guys annd see how they do….”, etc. If he is/was mediocre in ‘24 the entire Team sucks!!