JD-TWINS

NO to Jax starting. Trade Duran with another piece for a bat. Move Jax to closer - he can make more $$ there medium/long term. Everybody’s happy.

Maybe to make the deal’s more $$ palatable to the trade partner in AZ…….if Castro - Jeffers - Z. Matthew’s to Arizona and we get J. Montgomery & Moreno back and AZ covers half of Montgomery’s salary. That leaves $12.5M owed to Montgomery. Then flip Montgomery & include Duran to the Red Sox for Tristan Casas. Twins again get a solid young catcher and a solid young guy at 1B. They save $6.3M + $3M + $3.7M on Castro, Jeffers, & Duran - respectively…….this way they keep Lopez and have $13M to spend towards a bat. ???

Castro - Jeffers - Lopez to Arizona for Moreno (C) & Jordan Montgomery. AZ pays $12M of Montgomery’s salary and AZ owner is rid of him. Twins youthful pitchers take up slack in rotation in ‘26 when Montgomery leaves. New ownership and a new approach for ‘26. Twins shed $31M in salary in this trade. Rotation stays competitive in ‘25. They spend $12.8M on the aquired players. They get a very solid young catcher with team control. Net salary gain to be spent on a real BAT is $18M! Trade Duran and (AA or C. Lewis from AAA) young starter for Tristan Casas at 1B - with Boston. Solid Catcher - Solid 1B - $$ to spend on a new hitter as well. Jax is closer. Paddack/Varland/Alcala/Sands/Topa/Stewart get the ball to Jax.

Ercig’s trade compensation sounds like the above compensation for Bummer, mentioned by old nurse. A trio of ???? for a top end arm is nuts. He’s 30……big deal, former Air For e Academy guy who is in better than great shape. Super disciplined physically & mentally!! He has Team control left. If part of the argument to trade is that his best is behind him and relievers are a dime a dozen, why would Jax draw any interest? His chances at being a starter are about 3%. He’s an elite reliever because he can go max effort for up to 25 pitches per outing…….often under 15 pitches. He has a much better chance of becoming the Twins closer v. becoming a starter.

Very interesting thoughts - some look really good! So, I’m not a huge proponent of trading Lopez but I’m going to yield to that idea since a catcher is of great need………I think AZ is in too much of a win now mode so I have a twist on the trade with D-Backs. I’d do Lopez for Moreno & save another $4M and take Jordan Montgomery off their hands, offering to cover $10M of his salary. They keep Gallen for their playoff push & I think the D-Back’s owner would absolutely say yes but GM may balk? Montgomery would be energized and no longer be in purgatory. I would not sign Martinez at DH since I think that will be a line-up spot of need for Lewis - Miranda - CC - Buxton - Larnach throughout the year. IF Julien can hit a bit, he may get some AB’s there too. Castro as the initial 2B in April is a fallback if Julien & Lee are both inept at the plate and Keaschall isn’t ready yet. I’m hopeful that between these 4 guys 2B output goes up through the year. I keep Topa & Larnach & Paddack and use Castro and Martin & Keirsey for CF depth. I would keep Vazquez. I would hesitate on signing Santana and opt for following trade. Jeffers & Duran (C. Lewis or AA arm if needed) to Red Sox for Tristan Casas at 1B. Jax becomes closer and can make desired $$ in years to come and forgets about starting again or at least represses the thought. Lewis - CC - Keaschall by June - Casas. Miranda - Keirsey or Martin - Castro - Lee - Vazquez on bench. Moreno at Catcher 55% of time. Larnach - Buxton - Wallner Pen has: Topa - Sands - Alcala - Varland - Paddack - Henriquez - Stewart - Jax ………Raya in September……..Moran - Headrick - Funderburk - Blewett are all potential depth pieces. Ober - Ryan - Festa - Montgomery - SWR in rotation. Morris & Raya as next guys up. Starting with your $129.5M salary for ‘25 ……I save $3.5M in LF - $4M in rotation - $6.2M on DH I spend $1.3M more on Catcher trading Jeffers and retaining Vazquez - I spend $6.2M more retaining Paddack for relief role. Big trade for Montgomery as well as Casas……this may be all that’s feasible in one off-season? ……..I think this leaves an additional $6.2M to spend as well………Maybe Zebby Matthews to Red Sox instead of Duran & we trade Duran to Brewers for Devin Williams. Milwaukee picks up 2 more years of control……..Twins get Williams and a bridge to the next ownership group…….maintaining a very solid Pen for ‘25!……….My budget may be an extra $1 - $2 M? Upgrade at Catcher per your idea. Upgrade at 1B. Reality, IMO, at DH. Drop-off in rotation talent……maybe not in results? Pen seems good to me…. Topa for Tonkin. OF is status quo with Keirsey/Martin/Castro handling the depth needs.

Can’t imagine that anyone has interest in Paddack as a starter. His numbers and his health combine to huge risk & minimal upside. No real way to get anything positive back for him in trade other than $$ relief. That said, if he only has 75 good innings in his arm per season, put him in the bullpen where he can be aggressive with his approach but inning protected by only throwing 3 innings per week. His stuff plays well over 3-6 guys faced per outing. He isn’t a terribly high cost and he could help elevate the Pen to a weapon for the Team. Alcala - Henriquez - Varland - Sands - PADDACK - Topa - Stewart - Jax - Duran - Moran - Headrick - Funderburk …….. this group of 12 isn’t perfect individually but there are almost certainly 8 guys that combine to be very effective from September through October.

Agreed! Topa - Stewart - Moran are all health question marks……one or two of the 3 should help at times. Paddack - Varland - Alcala - Sands - Jax - Duran are potentially 6 very solid performers! Henriquez - Headrick - Funderburk - Blewett are depth contributors in the Pen.

Obviously, I completely agree! I saw the MLB WAR rankings as well - to be fair, it’s got a lot to do with a bunch of the other competitive Teams having FA’s and they don’t count in that analysis since they aren’t currently signed. Bottom line is that you are correct and the existing top 15-20 players the Twins have on the 26 man are very solid for a contender to go deep in the playoffs. Health & the addition of a couple pieces and they would be in good shape!

Mid-season ultimate all-around infield is: Lee - CC - Keaschall - Lewis To me Royce’s bat projects well as a first baseman……..physically, 1B is the least demanding…….few opportunities for throwing errors…….this solves 1B void and no need to spend here………..if not at 1B, he should play LF 50% of the time along with Larnach. LF is not dangerous physically and it solves the need to “spend on a RH hitting corner OF”. (Santana might be a nice 1 yr sign if they pursue Lewis in OF) CC is locked in at Short. Keaschall seems to be an above average bat with OK skills at 2B…….at least that’s the trajectory. Start the season with Castro starting at 2B and give Keaschall til July 1 to get comfortable throwing again and to get back in form at the plate in St. Paul………Julien proves he can hit in St. Paul prior to getting a look at MLB level. Miranda starts at 3B for most games through mid-May and hopefully, Lee has proven he can hit at a reasonable level…….then turn 3B over to him going forward. Castro - Julien - Miranda can all provide depth as needed ……. even Martin could at 2B a bit, early in the year.

Not being a jerk here but who are the “hitting” catchers at AAA? I am not a big MiLB follower and only know of Camargo in St. Paul. To me, he doesn’t seem to fit that description. Regardless, if he was a REAL catching prospect I would think he would have been chatted up as a path forward for the Team post Vazquez. First I’ve noticed his name. My assumption is if he hits at a higher level (AA & AAA) he’ll be a Corner OF depth guy and the 3rd option at Catcher on an as needed basis for roster flexibility. Frankly, until he posts at Catcher and has hitting success at AA (not just OBP success) I don’t see the Team using up a 40 man spot. Can’t carry him & Camargo on 40 man and I don’t think anyone thinks he’s ready to displace Camargo defensively …… I wish he was ready!!!

I read about 10 comments and the doom & gloom from nearly every angle is always so uplifting. Team wasn’t good even when Correa was in the line-up …….. the big market Teams always fleece the small market Teams …….. the Pohlad’s are cheap …….. Falvey’s an idiot….., wow. The writers job is to write stuff that “may happen” but more importantly will generate reader interest……. SS’s in N.Y., Volpe & Lindor, aren’t in need of being replaced any time soon. Does it make any sense to trade for a guy that hasn’t been able to stay on the field over the last 2 seasons AND pay him $37M/yr.? Why??? ……..oh, it must be so they can stick it to the Twin’s fan base. Pretty sure the Yankees have their hands full focusing on their bullpen and trying to keep Soto! ……… The Mets are losing (potentially) 90 starts between 3 exiting FA starting pitchers …..Alonso is a FA …… they want Soto as well!! Either team trading for a marginal health (potential All-star) guy isn’t a very good way to make themselves better. The biggest thing that seems to be glossed over in the comments is that the Pohlad’s are selling the Club. I have no reason to doubt this is true. Why would they approve to dismantle a team (trade star power) that is a couple guys away from having real success? I know that nobody here buys into this, but I think they might actually spend a bit to try to ensure that the Club has success in ‘25. What’s an extra $17M (random amount) into this year’s payroll to try and maximize a $1.5Bish return on the asset sale? Seems the incoming buyers would want an energized fan base that’s excited about the product on the field and not want a bunch of prospects for CC and have concerns for $20M in the Pohlad’s pocket in the short term.

Santana is one of the Finalists for Silver Slugger at 1B. He lead the Team in HR & RBI. He won a Gold Glove. …….should he be considered for $5-$6M??? He’d be the mirror to Miranda at 1B - Miranda hits RH pitching and Santana hits LH pitching. He’d be an excellent late inning defensive replacement with a lead. He’d be the bat off the bench (instead of Margot) to face LH relievers. Santana will be 39 in ‘25 and Goldschmidt will be 37 in ‘25. ……Santana had 1 more HR & 10 more RBI in ‘24 than Goldschmidt and he won a Gold Glove. Goldschmidt’s last GG was in ‘21…….they are essentially a wash in performance and based on reputation, Goldschmidt will cost 3X what Santana will cost. Lopez was 15-10 (could easily have been 18-8) and had an ERA of 4.08. He threw 180 plus innings for third straight year. He had 198 strikeouts. He had 5 or so bad outings ……..mostly pretty good though. Can’t consider trading the leader of the pitching staff. IMO, Duran is the jewel to be moved with another one or two guys in a package. I honestly like adding Paddack & Varland along with Topa and Stewart back to the Pen. I don’t see getting any value back in a trade of Paddack. A straight salary dump, when he could throw 70 solid innings out of the Pen, doesn’t seem wise.

My apologies - my post above was supposed to read “Santana can hit LH pitching” …..not Castro.

I like trading Jeffers & Duran as a package to get a solid bat back……I’m stuck on one solution (our guys for Boston’s 1B, Casas) but there are probably a dozen deals I’m unaware of around baseball. Jax becomes closer and has opportunity to make more $$ going forward and puts “starting again” behind him. The $9M saved could be used on DeArnauld from Atlanta, FA catcher…… maybe $5.5M. Experienced - has some pop - gotta be a bit better than Jeffers behind the plate. Casalli could probably be signed for $4M or less and also seems better than Jeffers behind the plate but doesn’t have much offensive upside. As every day passes it seems settling with and then packaging Castro with someone in a trade makes a lot of sense…….I vacillate here. If they can’t trade for a 1B - the $$ saved on a Castro trade allows them to resign Santana as a solid platoon guy/pinch hitter/defensive replacement late. Castro can hit LH pitching! …..25% of starts are v. LH pitching……he’d get 80-90% of the pinch hit AB’s they gave Margot last year, he’ll hit .230 in that situation v. Margot’s .000. He’s around if Miranda gets hurt or if they just want better defense with late leads! Miranda is a reverse split guy and would play against RH pitching. Santana is up for Silver Slugger Award - he won the Gold Glove - he lead the Team in HR & RBI………if he did that for another Club, Twin’s fans would clamor to sign him for $5M. Did this in Minnesota and “he’s 38” and it’s all taken for granted.

Interesting math…….the assumption a player is to cover 162 games with no depth (cost of depth) behind him is a bit antiquated. I get the grand $$ value a player provides seems like a fantasy stat! Still, 138 OPS+ is excellent. That number, coupled with over 100 games played, does provide the Team with some significant tangible value. To me, if he played 120 games there is no conversation ……. it would be good if he can get to that level of activity in the line-up……that seems practical - again, an average of 1 guy per franchise plays 150 games in a season.

1) After yesterday lefty relievers available in FA are Hill of Yankees - Chafin of Texas - Coloumbe of Orioles………would go this way v. volatile Chapman at more $$. 2) Trade Jeffers and Duran to Boston for First Baseman Casas……they need to replace Kenley Jansen at the back end. Casas was hurt some in his 2nd year in ‘24 and still put up 120 OPS+. Stretch for Sox to trade him. 3) Take some of the $8.5M saved on the above trade and sign Travis D’Arnaud as a FA from Atlanta. Maybe $6M? Braves refused to spend $8M on option. Everyday 1B - lefty reliever - upgrade defense at Catcher with offensive wash……get a bunch of Braves Catcher/Pitcher background as well, relating to organizational approach. Might need to move Castro to afford lefty reliever? I’d keep him and possibly move him at the deadline if Lee/Keaschall/Lewis are playing OK. He may be needed? I keep Paddack and get him into the Pen & try to make that a strength! Paddack - Alcala - Sands - Henriquez - Varland - Lefty FA OR Headrick - Topa - Stewart - Jax…………Funderburk - Moran - re-sign Blewett …..,maybe couple young guys I’m unaware of………Canterino later in summer if healthy……. Raya in September? I’m rolling with Buxton/Kiersey/Martin as CF depth chart…….for budget sake……maybe Castro as well if he’s still around.

We don’t have a 23 HR - 71 RBI - gold glove 1B in house……..agree on the others. To me, Santana is worth signing to play v. LH starters - pinch hit against LH relievers - play 1B regularly after 7th inning with a lead……it would relieve much of the anxiety of having Miranda there to take the most reps in ‘25.

I agree on the reverse split comment with Miranda. My thinking is play him 80-90% of the time at 1B and sign Santana to bat right handed principally. He is certainly a good late inning defensive replacement - he’d get a bunch of Margot’s RH pinch hitting opportunities - he can play 10-20% of the time v. RH pitching, as needed…..25% of time there are lefty starters. If Miranda gets hurt - the spot is covered. Santana starts 35% of the time and is available often off the bench. Certainly an approach - maybe not ideal but a conservative path forward for ‘25.

Second base is hardly playing either “out of position”……..particularly Lee. Those are the two spots these guys fit into, unless, as I’ve mentioned here before, they move Lewis to 1B & leave Lee at 3B and find out who’s deserving of 2B between Keaschall & Julien. Ideally, the best offensive infield, assuming guys are playing up to expectations by mid-summer is left to right, Lee - Correa - Keaschall - Lewis. Very doubtful they go this route so somebody is getting moved between now and mid-March. (Julien - Miranda - Keaschall - somebody) Am trying to manifest a trade for Boston’s 1B Casas …….. how about Lee & Duran to the Red Sox? We get a more proven bat and everyday first baseman and Boston gets Lee’s flexibility and upside along with a controllable replacement for Kenley Jansen. Am I nuts?

Do not disagree in principle…….. I know you know they gotta “give these guys another chance” ……..hopefully, to be able to trade them!

Agree with the sentiment but gotta say, Lee needs to kick it up a couple notches or he may play himself off the Roster……absolutely pathetic at the plate after first 15 days in MLB.

Jeffers gets tendered…… no choice! His contact rate going up is nice but if 40% of the additional balls put in play are pop ups it’s not really a positive! I’d like to see him choke up all the time, not just after getting to 2 strikes - if he squares the ball better his power numbers will go up - he’s plenty strong enough to do damage up a couple inches on the handle. Can’t move Vazquez - could never be $$ wise as Twins would have to cover 30-50% of his salary on another Team. The current tandem is fine on a good Club. I’m with you on nearly all of this…….My guy to go acquire in Winter of ‘23-‘24 was Devin Williams. He had two years of control left then - He’s around $7.75M/year and only 1 year of control……..I like trading some pieces as you suggest, I just want a solid bat back though. A Carlos Santana type …….only 10 years younger……. I guess I differ on the Duran as a trade piece though……….he’s really good and if his pitch sequencing got a little better he’d be straight up great. That said, Jax is awfully good & could close regularly w/o an issue. Allows salary reduction and potential for some offensive punch coming back if Twins sweeten the pot with Duran. Even trading Duran (and another guy or two) for a bat…….I still think the Pen could be a strength. Don’t see Paddack bringing back much value in trade so he’s in the Pen with Louie - Ronny - Jorge - Cole - Griffin - etc….. (Topa - Stewart - Winder - Headrick - Moran - Funderburk……as health allows) - Blewett…….maybe Raya in Pen by September?

SANTANA in 2024: Struck out less than 20% of AB’s - lead Team in HR. 26 Doubles & 71 RBI. Hit within 4 % points of his career Batting Average. Gold Glove at 1B. (Award doesn’t tip scale) Doesn’t shrink in big moments! Works hard to stay in great shape & post in line-up as needed. Seems Team could use him as RH bat at 1B v. LH pitching……PH v. LH pitching …….. depth at 1B if alternative goes down with injury. My assumption is Miranda will be the guy to hit (excels v. RH pitching/reverse splits) against RH pitching and will also play 1B. If Team pursues a better bat at 1B - then leave Santana alone. To me, he’s too high quality as depth piece to not at least offer him $5M. I love the idea of trading some high value to Red Sox for 1B Casas. Santana could be a nice compliment to him as needed.

ALCALA - Blewett - Duran - Funderburk - Headrick - Henriquez - Jax - Moran - Paddack - Sands - Stewart - Topa - Varland - Winder……..that’s 14 guys to start with in the Pen….,,I don’t see any real weak performers in the group. Moran is a ??? - Funderburk isn’t absolutely reliable - Topa/Stewart/Winder are all ?? regarding health ……….. that leaves 9 guys that seem to all be a pretty solid core. Definitely keep Alcala - he’s not perfect but he’s got great stuff and a very plausible for 6th/7th inning work 2 - sometimes 3 times per week…….,55-60 innings. He did drift a few times after the Texas massacre but overall I thought he had a breakout season.

The Team is up for sale!!! Nobody is trading any of these 5 guys nor any of their other good players……..a for sale sign denotes “status quo” to me. Trade Ryan to get a good hitter - trade Lewis to get a good pitcher…….,it’s futile. They might trade Duran to let Jax close if they can get some offensive punch in return. Am assuming they would need to add another “upside pitcher” combined with Duran to get any real value back. There’s no need (with 8 or more guys of 13 every day guys under 28 years old) to do a soft rebuild. They need to strengthen the list of guys they already have with one solid bat!!! There’s 30 different opportunities via trade or FA for a bat - I like trading for Casas, Boston’s 1B…………..Duran - C. Lewis - Gonzalez or Julien or both to Boston? Buxton - Correa - Larnach - Lewis - Correa - Wallner - Miranda - Jeffers - Kiersey - Vazquez - Lee - Martin or Keaschall - & NEW BAT………. .800 OPS guy that’s done it a bit……not readily available! O’Neill as a FA after Boston could work?