JD-TWINS

It’s kind of like reversing the DH rule. Player’s Union likes all the arms that get a chance to throw as hard as they can for as long as they can ……..once they sign a deal they get paid if they are pitching or recovering from Tommy John or whatever surgery may be needed. I like the better “pitcher” mentality and more starter innings via pitching smart and not max effort…….don’t see “staffs” reverting to this. Maybe one guy on every other staff through baseball - 15 guys.

No real positive with increasing fastball usage. He’s already at a % that can allow or induce the opponent to just sit on his fastball. Very few pitchers can get by with just stuff……deception, pitch mix, and surprise are very important. If Ryan or anyone starts throwing nearly 60% of one pitch it’s going to be a problem…….at least for a starter.

Ceiling seems to be driving the ranking! He was an 18 year old Low A pitcher, so #4 seems like a stretch unless he was dominant. He wasn’t. Prospects are all guesses until they perform in the Show…….i.e. Brooks Lee. Let’s give him to July of ‘26 to see how he’s doing ……. he’ll be 20. Certainly no reason to hate on him nor doubt his potential. Quite a few guys have command issues at 18…..walks not a big deal.

You tender everyone except Tonkin - no big surprise. Never, ever thought I would consider trading Lewis or Duran. Lewis, in ‘25, is too high of a ceiling guy and still very inexpensive. Duran though, I think, if moved with one of the current catchers, might help get back a real Catcher with youth and either defensive or offensive upgrades over whichever guy goes in trade. I push for an infield of Lee - CC - Keaschall - Lewis………between Kesschall and Lewis, I don’t care who plays 1B or 2B. Seems to me Keaschall has arm problems so it may fit him? Lewis has the size & offensive profile at 1B with leg issues - so maybe him? This infield may not come together until June. Lee is the best defensive fit at 3B…..maybe needs to square up offense in St. Paul?! In the meantime, Miranda and Julien can play 3B - 2B as needed. These moves reduce the need to sign an expensive guy at 1B…….. focus on Catcher upgrade and ride with current Staff. Duran - Castro - Jeffers - Paddack - Matthews - Julien are the trade pieces in my mind. Catcher in trade and maybe a real BAT in the OF as a FA after shedding salary? PEN: (assuming Duran traded) Headrick - Henriquez - Stewart - Topa - Paddack (if kept) - Varland - Alcala - Sands - Jax - Blewett - Moran - Funderburk - (maybe) Tonkin ……….Canterino - Prielipp - Raya all late summer adds potentially…….Paddack’s innings capabilities seem to fit the Bullpen……he could be a key bridge guy there over 45-50 appearances & 75 innings.

2024 comps: WHIP 1.294 1.245 ERA 4.17 5.00 Innings 133 66 GS 28 16 $$ in ‘25 $800K $8.6M W-L 5-5 3-6 SO/BB 2.44 2.64 WAR. 2.00. .90 Age. 22 yrs. 26 yrs Luzardo is on the right……better stuff & ceiling is a given! Health, age, & cost……results……...I’ll keep SWR at this point. Theoretically, at same $800K, David Festa has a higher ceiling than SWR for ‘25. Morris - C. Lewis - Matthews - Raya at AAA, along with the Top 3 rotation guys Twins have, I am optimistic about the Twin’s rotation as is.

Twins trading Wallner seems to me to be as likely as them spending $200M on payroll. LOCAL kid (26 yrs) with best Slug% on the Team, 2nd highest OBP with 2.2WAR in 75 games. Why would anyone, with any organization, trade that away? Eddie Julien being in the Majors with any team in ‘25 is not a high % prospect……. (in ‘24 he hit .199 with an OBP of .292 & a 74 OPS+ over 94 games - not an average defender at his primary position) Playing FIRST Base for anyone, including the Twins, is another couple standard deviations away from being real. Not sure why Eddie is being thought of as some plausible option at 1B……other than desperation? I hope he turns it around but my hopes won’t help him at all.

To me they need offense and the Staff is covered with what’s currently in the organization. …….. TRADE Duran in a package for a good young Catcher or a BAT that can play 1B or OF……maybe takes 2-3 more guys from Twin’s side?…..Castro - one of the current Catchers - Julien - ….. maybe Matthews or C. Lewis? Rotation: Festa - Lopez - SWR - Ober - Ryan …. Morris - C. Lewis - Matthews - Raya are all in St Paul for depth. Pen: Alcala - Sands - Stewart - Topa - Paddack - Jax - Varland - Henriquez - Funderburk - Headrick - Moran ………Prielipp - Canterino are fantasy additions with health …….. Raya makes sense by August! That’s 14 guys to piece together 8 spots over 6 months. Guys like Blewett and Tonkin will be around through the season (like guys) to eat some innings.

See no chance of Jax moving to rotation…….why would they do this other than to appease Jax. I make HIM the closer and he can make more $$ in that role. I trade Duran in a package for offense or good young Cstcher.

Completly agree, out on Luzardo…….his WHIP is over 1.200 for his career and it’s been over 1.200 his last 2 seasons. He was out with back problems and had 16 starts with a 5.00 ERA in ‘24. EVERYONE here rides the front office about making bad trades and trades for pitchers that are hurt and don’t pan out ……… Jesus Luzardo may be the poster child for this scenario. After the ‘22 season I was in love with the guy!! Couldn’t imagine why Twins would trade for Lopez instead of Luzardo……….sooo very glad they did not. He’s a major risk and there certainly is no reason to covet him. …. I don’t think I’d trade Luke Keaschall for him straight up. Non starter trade for me. I think our staff is just fine! TWINS need a BAT and a decent, youthful Catcher. They need to move one of their current catchers in trade. Also, they need to move pitchers that are of interest to trade partners……. Castro can be a trade piece as well as Julien. Pitchers may be Matthews - C. Lewis - Duran - Henriquez - Paddack.

I have nearly zero affinity for Lee. My comment was he/Julien/Keaschall would earn time at 2B based on performance. Seems pragmatic - right? He’s the back-up at 3B & SS because he’s potentially on the bench & available.

A real Funk suggestion here: Move Lewis to 1B …….. stand pat in the OF with Wallner - Buxton - Larnach - Martin - Kiersey ….with Rodriguez on the come by July if needed……..Lee/Keascahal/Julien at 2B based on performance……Correa at SS and Willy Adames at 3B for 5 years and $130M…. too low on $$? He makes the Team, with this infield going forward, a real contender. There’s value for him there as well! Lee & Adames cover any innings at 3B & SS as needed if CC misses time. Could trade Castro - Duran - Paddack & decline Tonken’s $$. This gives team $17.5M to apply toward the Adames contract ($26M)…….add some trade pieces as needed from AAA to get a decent young catcher and use Vazquez or Jeffers in the trade to save another $4.7M minimum. That’s $22.2 M of the $$ needed to pay Adames. Team is for sale and this is a Big Swing but sure makes the Team attractive for years to come……..Rodriguez & Jenkins coming in future in OF.

They could use better defensive play - for sure. Problem they had though was scoring runs the last 6 weeks. They were 17 games over .500 at that point and a bunch of that bad defense was already behind them……. guys like Tommy Pham aren’t going to help with the glove nor with his legs. No perfect Teams but I like guys that are bat first nearly every time. Pham may be a fit but I doubt that out of Spring Training, maybe added later?

I agree that for guessing what can be done, signing available FA’s is the easiest. Predicting trades (for who - giving up who) is extreme guesswork and probably fruitless. I just don’t see the Team signing anyone in FA for any double digit (millions) salary. (Lopez - Buxton - Correa total $73M) Trade for 1B Westburg of Orioles or Casas of Red Sox. Bring in real capable guy at a seriously reduced cost compared to Walker. Trade for a young Catcher that can hit some. My group of trade pieces due to their cost and UPSIDE for trade partners, at the surface, are these guys……….Castro - Jeffers - Matthews - Duran - C. Lewis - Henriquez - Paddack - Julien. I’m sure there may be interesting guys lower than these in the system……will leave that to the imagination. Santana is a “FA reach” for a solution but Miranda hits RH pitching and Santana hits LH pitching - he’s reasonable insurance - he could get Margot’s PH attempts from ‘24 and play first base 30-35% of the time……more if there’s an injury. $5.5M & he stays with a contender. If trade emphasis really focuses on the right Catcher………seems if we move Jeffers and $4.7 M salary along with Castro and $6.3M salary to AZ, along with Z. Matthews, we could get back Moreno and take J. Montgomery off their hands….,(AZ pays $11M of his $25M owed). We flip Montgomery and Duran ($3.7M) and Paddack ($7.5M) to O’s or Boston for their first baseman. Get a Catcher and 1B going forward and save $22.2M ……these $ could be used a bunch of ways …… if Westburg is the add from O’s, he makes a few million immediately so the extra $$ are reduced. Seems AZ is motivated to move Montgomery …… Moreno is a key guy for them so they need some real value back …….. I think something can be done there though.

……..8 guys need to be near .900 OPS to make up for their defensive issues?……. If 3-4 of them are over .800 OPS we’d be ecstatic. Just a general comment on the overall…….taking on Wandy Peralta & signing Duvall or Pham sound like good moves in 2022. I don’t see much improvement - none - with this roster. Yandy could be an interesting add - the prospect capital, if measured, is something an organization has to part with to improve. The Catcher move is not exciting if San Diego has given up on the guy.

Eye test - he passes. Just like the large majority of young pitchers, his command could be better in the zone. He could also use some pitch that changes his velocity a bit more…….even his current change-up is 91MPH…..maybe a secondary grip on this to get more variation? Maybe a curveball 8% of the time? He looks determined and pretty unflappable on the mound to me. I like his demeanor and his stuff!

I completely agree on cast-offs/Dobnack. Can’t just wish them onto another club. Seems though, if Team can pay part of other’s salaries to move them, Dobnack may be in this group as well. Maybe team covers $1.25M and sends an A ball prospect? That leaves $1.75M for “other team” to cover. Seems it’s going to be a one way deal though with no real return. That’s OK - they would be giving Dobnack an opportunity and saving “some amount”. I would think that a Julien & Paddack trade could net somebody with more than just a pulse - right? Paddack and somebody else with value. Personally, I think Paddack is a big plus for 75 innings through the year from the Pen. Lefties, IMO, are in place with Funderburk - Moran - Headrick. Seems those 3 guys competing for a spot is a better option than signing a big maybe in his 30’s - there are a handful of those guys out there. I trade Duran & Castro (why non tender and get no value back?) & Jeffers. ($14.7M moved) Those 3 may all go to one team to get a real catcher with youth. Camargo is not a real MLB option. Paddack & Vazquez are in the $135M on the books now. If they can cost share a positive $1M for Dobnack plus the other $14.7m, that’s $15.7M to spend. The 3 guys traded would be replaced by $800K x 3 spots or $2.4M. This now leaves $13.3M to spend……add Tonkin’s release……$14.8M to soend Pen: Varland - Henriquez - Alcala - Paddack - Sands - Stewart - Topa - Headrick - Funderburk - Moran - Jax…….11 guys that seem to be in the mix. Rotation is static: Lopez - Ryan - Ober - Festa - SWR plus 3-4 guys at AAA. 13 man: Lewis/Miranda - Correa/Lee - Keaschall/Lee - Miranda/Keaschall Vazquez & young Catcher via trade Martin - Kiersey - Larnach - Buxton - Wallner I would trade Matthews - C. Lewis - Henriquez - Julien - Martin………whatever combination needed, to get a guy like Westburg or Tristan Casas to play 1B. Can keep $10M to spend at the deadline (Aug. 1 - Sept. 30) for whatever is needed. ………………….. Could dump Paddack and sign Santana for $5.5………..then take the roughly $18M left and try to sign O’ Neil as an OF bat and move Martin to AAA……..big maybe?

What if they are less active and just trade to get $$$ to spend on a guy? Trade Paddack - trade Castro - Jeffers to a contender for a reasonable young catcher……take those $18M and sign Grichuk - Santana - former Yankee lefty Hill with those $$. Staff is at $46M. 13 Everyday guys at $83M. To me this is a move toward the future with the Catcher along with OF bat improvement & reasonable depth move for 1B and right handed PH with Santana. Solid lefty in Pen. Problem is it’s a playoff team with health & not a very deep run capable club……,,very ‘24 Guardians like - all based on the budget at $130Mish

They need to replace Jansen - Duran is every bit of that at a great $$ reduction. Montgomery & Boston had talks last year, I think he’s a really nice add at $14M with potential long-term signing. Miranda is a .265-.275 hitter with doubles capability to the gaps - maybe a 15 HR guy with the Monster…….3B & 1B compliment to Devers & can DH. Maybe Castro goes as well to help their depth at 2-3 positions? That’s a pretty fair amount of impact for Boston. They have other young bats coming from AAA……..🤞🤞

Jeffers - Henriquez - Matthews to AZ for J. Montgomery (AZ covers $11M) & Moreno (C) …….teams exchange a decent Catcher for a good catcher - take Montgomery off their hands and for 1 year of salary relief they get young relief arm and young, fringe starter to soften the loss of Moreno. Duran - Montgomery - Miranda to Boston for Tristan Casas (1B) Maybe Castro & Julien are added in these moves if needed. Payroll is reduced by Jeffers $4.7M leaving & Duran $3.7M leaving…..Castro probably sweetens one of the trades so that’s another $6.3M saved. Total of $14.7M gain. I keep Paddack in the Pen …… it now costs $16M. Rotation stays at $31.1M. This leaves $83-$88M for 13 guys. C - Moreno & Vazquez 1B - Casas & Keaschall 2B - Lewis & Keaschall 3B - Lee & Lewis SS - Correa & Lee OF - Larnach - Buxton - Wallner - Kiersey DH is a rotating spot for 4-5 guys. 11 guys totaling around $71M This leaves $10-$15M for an upgrade over Grichuck……..or Team spends $6.5M on Grichuck & remaining $3.5-$8.5M on a lefty reliever…….maybe they retain Castro? $130-$135M payroll.

Bought the documentary and watched on Prime this a.m. - best $13 I’ve spent in a long time! Essentially, a revered guy all around baseball - Tim McCarver, Mike Schmidt, Rod Carew, Bob Costas & Pete Rose all had glowing things to say about Kitty. John Stuper (game 6 winner in ‘82 Series), Keith Hernandez, & Ozzie Smith were all ‘82 Teammates and were equally, if not more, affected by Kaat’s personality and guidance as young players. Describes meeting Sandy Koufax prior to Game 2 of ‘65 Series and seeing him pitch for the first time ever, that day. Faced him 3 times in the Series and they became friends over the following decades. Really well done!

Kaat was a childhood favorite. What a great perspective and voice of the game as a color commentator!! Jim Kaat with Bob Costas is an awfully entertaining broadcast! The 1st Championship after 24 years into his career is a big time achievement and sweet Trivia Question……..17 years between World Series appearances is really something as well. I believe he had near 17 gold gloves through his career. Another chunk of trivia is, I believe he’s a 5 handicap or less in golf, from both left and right sides! Look forward to viewing the documentary.

I do not see trading Ryan. Surely, the Team doesn’t need to trade current high end contributors for someone else’s prospects! Team should be in a Win Now mode and not trying to find some former high draft pick that’s having mixed results in the minors with another organization ………why trade for that? Team needs a solid, offensive upside guy at 1B - would be nice to get a real catcher with some youth, while moving Jeffers in a separate deal - a BAT to add to the OF/DH spot. To me, that’s it……never going to have a perfect 26 man roster! Trading Jeffers, if needed, or Duran, if needed, or Castro or Paddack or Matthews …….. whatever needs to be done to address the needs stated above at 1B, OF/DH, & maybe youthful Catcher. Starters are fine and I see Festa as the #4 or #5 Starter…….. Paddack in the Pen to add depth that may be suspect with Stewart & Topa being question marks with health. Paddack - Topa - Varland added to last year’s Pen is a nice upgrade. Matthews - Morris - Lewis - Raya are next 4 guys up after the Top 5 starters. IMO, Kiersey - Martin - Keaschall - Lee - Julien can cover 2B and Utility spot if absolutely necessary and this lets them trade Castro with another piece to get one of the real needs - big BAT!

Depth gives the FO some flexibility if guys can out up numbers at AAA. All of a sudden SWR can be blended in a trade or Matthews or Lewis ………others need arms and if Team can get to 8-9 rostered guys that can start they can get better with trades for real players and not prospects.

Right & right. Trading Lopez is a tough thought to process & why do this if you are trying to sell an Asset for $1.5B ……..devaluing the Club in the short term?? If they traded Lopez to greatly improve the club…….I might get that. Trading him for a prospect and an average reliever doesn’t make much sense. Throwing in Alcala & anyone else makes less sense to me. For the 3rd time today, I like trading Duran & Z. Matthews to Boston for Tristan Casas. If they can save an additional $12M by trading away some salary (Paddack - Castro - Jeffers) & add a bat, that would be great. This deal gets them $3.7M to add to another $12M for this said BAT. Castro - Jeffers - Paddack to AZ for their Catcher, Moreno…..enough from Twins?